Muhammed Ali versus George Foreman--Sam Wang vs. Nate Silver

++About the only good thing coming from the government shutdown is the reappearance of Sam Wang. Please read Sam Wang's follow-up posts at elections.princeton.edu. He has gone behind the numbers to project the 2014 House elections. He thinks it is 50-50 now whether the Democrats can take back the House. But his re-emergence provoked Nate Silver, who believes that this too will pass and not make the dent Wang thinks. Wang disagrees because the turn against Republicans is deeper and more systemic than the pseudo-scandals generated against President Obama. Great to read dueling wonks.

++Another good thing from the shutdown has been the pent-up writing we have been hit with. John Judis in the New Republic analyzes the Collapse of the Republican Party. Salon had a great piece on how the South dominates the GOP and its awful implications for the country. Andrew Sullivan at his The Dish analyzes the "nullification of the Obama Presidency" by the Teabaggers and reflects on the bizarre demonstration outside the White House with protestors waving Confederate flags. Charles Pierce at Esquire has been merciless on his analysis of the GOP's shutdown.

++Yes, Virginia,a default would be catastrophic. The financial leaders of the world meeting in Europe warned the United States that default would shake the world. Louie Gohmert says a default of the debt would be an "impeachable" offense. Of course, if President Obama invokes the 14th Amendment it would be seen as an impeachable offense. My suggestion is that the House GOP open the government and lift the debt ceiling and go right into impeachment because that it what the House GOP wanted all along after the election.

++Despite Mark Halperin on "Morning Joe" and Bob Corker and Senator Schumer saying we are close to an agreement on the debt ceiling, I doubt it. We are back to the point where the House GOP is in such chaos,I don't believe they can pass anything in time.

++Rand Paul doesn't think a debt default is a good idea and wants to raise the age of Social Security and cut Medicare as a condition. Paul Ryan wants to prohibit contraceptive coverage for health insurance as a condition of the debt ceiling raise. The House Caucus wanted budget cuts. 

++The Democrats are fighting back by refusing to accept a prolongation of the sequester,which Senator Collins proposed. The Beltway pundits believe this could be an example of Democratic overreach. Ezra Klein had written this past weekend that whatever happens a long term budget deal in the future is dead. Next year, the sequestration cuts begin to take big hunks out of the blotted defense budget. In another world, the Republicans should oppose this. But we are in Superman's Bizarro world.

++John McCain who is apoplectic now appeared on the Sunday Talk shows to urge Democrats to be gracious and give something so the GOP can step down. The conventional wisdom is that there has to be some face-saving gesture for John Boehner so that he keeps his job. "I got to get something out of this." 

++David Plouffe, the mastermind of Obama's 2008 victory, outs a default at 50-50. 

Hurray for Classic Baseball

++The final playoff teams are decided. It is the classic choices: the Boston Red Sox against Detroit Tigers; and the L.A. Dodgers versus the St.Louis Cardinals. 

++My choice would be the Detroit Tigers against the L.A. Dodgers. 

Gonzo GOP

++I can't tell anymore the difference between the Republican congresscritter and Bryan Ferry of the Religious Right Talk Shows. I simply could not tell you why they shut the government down and why they believe there would not be an economic collapse if they breached the debt ceiling. Today, they were even more confusing. The House has offered sort of a clean debt ceiling bill, but would keep the government closed down while the Administration and the Democrats would talk--about what? Paul Ryan earlier in the day suggested a clean debt ceiling and the House immediately negotiate a budget with the Senate, who has been waiting since March. This seems fine ,except how does the government open. The Senate Republicans tonight are urging a one-year clean debt ceiling and a CR, which would eliminate the tax of medical devices and verify the income of Obamacare recipients. But it is unclear whether the House would pass that.

++Today, House Republicans said they were giving up on defunding Obamacare, while Heritage and the Club of Growth urged a clean debt ceiling but keeping the government closed so as to negotiate over Obamacare. Eric Erickson of Red State threatened the Republicans with the creation of a third party because they failed to defund Obamacare.

++It does look like the bankers, the Koch Brothers and the Chamber of Commerce did bring the hammer down on the GOP over the debt ceiling.During the day, you could feel the tension go out of the Capitol and Wall Street rocketed back up over 15,000.

++I have written about President Obama using the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling but it suddenly dawned on me that Congress would be violating the 14th Amendment by breaching the debt ceiling. Does anything happen to them?

++I have a tendency to be obsessed until I can make sense out of something. The  polls--the latest from the Wall Street Journal--show the GOP at 24% approval, while President Obama's rising to high 40s and Rasmussen to 50%. The GOP is 7 points lower than their lowest point, which was the day they impeached President Clinton. What gives?

++Personally, I think the GOP was out to destroy President Obama's Presidency but got so tangled up in their story that they  showed their "Tell". Basically, the GOP was committed at the time of Obama's swearing in to not only obstruct the Presidency but to fundamentally re-orient our democracy. The imperial presidency, which they created and sought to make the unitary executive as envisioned by Dick Cheney, is of no more use to them.

++Why was there such a lack of response to President Obama's request for armed force in Syria among a party that thrilled at war? It was not because the anti-war factions in each party triumphed, while that was partly true. Instead, the GOP has become isolationists. Notice how they don't even comment on the destruction of the Syrian chemical weapons. They floated the idea that this was some sort of Potemkin Ruse but reality shows differently. So move on. What is their response to the cutting of aid to Egypt? John McCain is the only one who has commented but the GOP just doesn't give a damn.

++Why? After Reince Preibus issued his paper on the need for GOP outreach,the party has gone in reverse direction. Even during the shutdown, there was talk about attaching more anti-abortion language and anti-contraception language in the CR. Despite a rally of thousands for immigration reform,there is no response from the House. And the continual attacks on President Obama are not meant to win the hearts and minds of the African American community. The "Cooch" went out of his way to reinstate the anti-sodomy laws in Virgina to no avail. Chris Christie appealed the court's decision to allow same-sex marriage in New Jersey. If anything, the whole Out Reach issue has gone into reverse.

++Today, the press revealed that the House changed their own rules on September 30 that prohibited any law from reaching the floor unless it was approved by the Speaker. That's why we had the shutdown. Also, the House today suggested that a clean bill on the debt ceiling would prohibit the Fed from using the powers of exigency to loan the Treasury money. The Center for American Progress actually hailed this as giving some certainty to the actual time of the debt ceiling. But it would erode an executive privilege, which would save a financial meltdown. 

++The net effect is that the Republican establishment has collapsed and it sees itself only as a congressional party and ,I believe, abandoned any serious ambitions to seize the White House. So the idea is to strip this President, especially, but all other Democratic presidents of the overwhelming power of the presidency. Basically,the Tea Party and the Business Community would dictate to the President the direction of the country.

++Many have called this neo-confedaratism and it is. The Art Popes and the Koch Brothers will continue to buy up states like North Carolina and Wisconsin and set the agenda for those states. The House Republicans from gerrymandering and voter suppression will retain their majority and hope they can take back the Senate. But even in the Senate,Mitch McConnell has set the tone of their behavior forcing 60 votes until a bill can reach the floor. This in essence blocks all Democratic initiatives. 

++They got into any Presidential election too far behind on the electoral votes. Changing how these votes are counted has been tried but in its most flagrant manner been dismissed by the courts. Even with voter suppression, they know women will remain about 61% of the vote and African-Americans and Hispanics will continue to rise.But any real outreach would jeopardize their congressional lock.

++The bizarre spectacle we have seen in the last week has been a full-blown civil war among Republicans with the potential that the rest of us would pay considerable collateral damage. When the dust settles, do not expect any moderation from Republicans or that they will stop this nonsense until Barack Obama leaves office.

++Finally, I guess  you should expect it. The Right is now going after Janet Yallin. Their campaign is against her because she is soft on inflation--something that hasn't been around for the last 6 years. 

Books!

++Congratulations to Alice Munro for winning the Nobel Prize for Literature. The Canadian writer, who said she was not writing anymore, is best known as a master of the short-story for which she won the prize.

++Fall is great reading season. The Producer of the Wire, mystery writer George Pelecanos brings us another Spero Lucas novel. If you want a writer about official Washington,D.C.,stylistically your man is Ward Just. If you want the writer of the real Washington,D.C., it is Pelecanos. In this novel,Lucas, an ex-Marine who served in Iraq and now a private investigator in Washington, takes the assignment to recover a painting by a not-so-well-known American woman artist titled the "Double", which had been stolen from a worker at a non-profit by her boyfriend. Lucas travels through the neigborhoods of Washington to areas off the Chesapeake Bay to procure the stolen painting and meets up with a gang who matches him in firepower and wits. Lucas is supported by his psychologically wounded band of brothers. As usual, Pelecanos captures the gritty reality of a Washington being gentrified. The Double was just released this past week by Little, Brown.

++Charlie Parker has been an elusive figure for biographers and jazz buffs. Clint Eastwood did the biopic a few years ago to mixed reviews. Now, Stanley Crouch appears with Kansas City Lightning:The Rise and Times of Charlie Parker (Harper Collins). Crouch dissects every influence on Parker and recreates the Jazz scene in the Midwest with copious references to every musician on the scene and the roots of Jazz. Crouch distills his 40 years of writing about Jazz in this masterpiece, apparently the first of two on Parker.

++Brave Genius: A scientist, A philosopher and their Daring Adventures from the French Resistance to the Nobel Prize by Sean Carroll, a professor of molecular biology and genetics at the University of Wisconsin. Most of us are aware of the relationship between Jean Paul Sartre and Albert Camus. But few of the bond between Camus and molecular biologist Jacques Monod. This is a superbly researched book, which provides new insights into both men and the actual day-to-day reality of the French Resistance. When Albert Camus won the Nobel Prize for Literature as the youngest person since Robert Louis Stevenson, he faced intense criticism in Paris but sought solace in the young Monod, who has been his companion in the Resistance. To the layperson the dashing Jacques Monod's life is little known while he too would go on to win the Nobel Prize for his work. Both men shared a type of humanistic conscience somewhat lacking in the world today. After Camus' tragic auto accident,Monod picks up the mantle and courageously smuggles activists out of Hungary during the Soviet takeover and later shows up in support of the students in the 1968 uprising in Paris. Near the end of his life,Monod would produce Chance and Necessity, which he thought was the philosophical sequel to the Myth of Sisyphus. A wonderful idea for a book, a great read and a nice picture of a France under Occupation and a Europe threatened by the Soviets.

++Jonathan Cott has done superb books of his interviews/conversations with people like Glenn Gould and Leonard Bernstein. His book on Leonard Bernstein is a must read and Bernstein lights up every page with his brilliance. Now Yale Press has published his complete Rolling Stone Interview with the late Susan Sontag. Susan Sontag ranges across the spectrum of issues from morality to aesthetics to photography and politics. The conversation doesn't hit the very highs of Bernstein but gives the reader a sense of the range of Susan Sontag's interests and preoccupations.

++So if you want more, the Library of America has just published Susan Sontag's extended essays Against Interpretation, Styles of Radical Will, On Photography,Illness as Metaphor and other uncollected essays on Bill Burroughs, Aging,The Third World of Women. And this book only takes us to 1978. I look forward to more.

++Yes,he's back! Dan Torrance who escaped oblivion at the conflagration at the Overlook Hotel is Doctor Sleep in Stephen King's sequel to The Shining.I'm half-way through and it is an engrossing read and is King at his peak. If you haven't seen The Shining or read the book, Doctor Sleep stands alone and you will not be confused but maybe a little on edge. Few critics ever remark how well King portrays lower working class Americans and captures people on the margins.A tribe of people travel across America called the True Knot while Dan Torrance battles alcoholism to keep his gift hidden and away. He encounters a young women named Abra Stone who has the Shining more intense than he and is now sought by the True Knot, who consume such people for their "steam" so they can continue to be immortal. Available where good books are sold.

The Most Powerful Woman in American History Will Be?

++Not Hillary Clinton and not Elizabeth Warren. Drumroll. Tomorrow, President Obama will nominate Janet Yellin as the Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve. Feathers in both their caps. Before the shutdown fight, Yellin had support from both sides of the aisle and would have been seen as shoe-in. Given the distemper of the GOP, it's unclear whether they will bring the nasty to the table. She had significant support among the GOP before the nomination on the strength that she was not Larry Summers. Since the United States is teetering on default, she will face perhaps the greatest challenge since Bernacke dealt with the global economic collapse. But, congratulations,she really deserved it. She has been a terrific member of the Fed and has expressed her concern about one of the pillars of that institution's mission--the creation of jobs. On the strength of her new position and the power it wields,she will be the most powerful woman in American history. 

++We left the Capital tonight with the House GOP still grousing and then voting to create a commission--now to negotiate raising the debt ceiling. Why don't they just establish a Central Committee and deliberate endlessly on ideology?

++The White House issued a call to the House to stop screwing around and pass an immigration act since the Senate passed one two months ago. Today, thousands gathered at the National Mall to rally for immigration reform. Unlike the tea baggers who charged the war monuments without reaction, six Democratic congressmen were arrested, including legendary civil rights leader John Lewis.

++Andrew Sullivan reflects my frustration tonight in his post expressing disgust with the diametrically opposed belief systems of the Democrats and the Republicans or better the clash between reality-base arguments and the fantasy world of the Republicans. He jokes that the GOP are acting as Saul Alinsky, while Obama is the true conservative. An unnecessary insult to Alinsky. But I share his sentiments about the level of the discussion or lack thereof in Washington.

++Boehner is quite cracked. In the morning, he cheers his caucus on saying they must put some points on the board after all this. By late afternoon, after President Obama put him down, he tells his team the Democrats are trying to annihilate us. 

++Just a reminder, there really are enough votes in Congress to pass a clean CR, and also enough votes to pass a clean debt ceiling.

++I've read at least two posts today that suggest President Obama will do something to direct the Treasury to issue treasury bonds to cover the government's debt, if Congress doesn't act. Josh Marshall's well-reasoned piece before President Obama's press conference argues why he won't. But Sean Wilentz's op-ed in the Times makes a compelling case why he should. We know that Prof. Tribe, Obama's former professor in constitutional law argues strongly against his actions but Dr. Posner at the University of Chicago is just as articulate why he must. Here, we are entering a zone where the Constitution is unclear. The pro-argument says that President Obama should declare an economic state of emergency since an artificial default would trigger a catastrophe or be similar to a nuclear explosion,according to Warren Buffett, and would require the President to step in to save the day. Right now, that seems to be the issue dwarfing the shutdown and the GOP is actually hardening their positions in a stance resembling a "coup".

The Press Response

++ I.I.I.Me.Mine.I. Me. Mine. I. Me. Mine. So our illustrious press, besides painting the President's rhetoric as fiery,is miffed. Now, remember Boehner took just two questions and fled the room in panic at the House. President Obama took more questions than I have ever seen him before. So the ink press got more than they bargained for and there were enough visuals for television. So what's the drill? President Obama never called on the TV reporters, only the print media and Huffington Post. So ABC didn't get the Dan Rather manque ,Jon Karl, demanding something unintelligible from the President or Chuck "Sweeney"Todd or Fox News' Mike Henry.

++In case, anyone has been asleep for the past two weeks, the President has been interviewed mano-a-mano by all networks. I guess he felt he had given them sufficient face time. But it is "Our Town". Forgive us, America.

The Tan Man Responds

++After President Obama gave a tour de force of a press conference ,which I thought was calm and deliberative, while in Washington it was thought to be combative and upped the stakes rhetorically, the Tan Man responded. So what gives? He disputed that he and Obama had a deal. He claimed Obama walked away and he didn't. Remember this is two years ago,in a galaxy far,far away. Then he said there would be negotiations. He only answered two questions and left. The House has since cobbled together and new proposal to create a bipartisan, bicameral commission to not only discuss the the CR, the debt ceiling, and other budget matters. And all of this could be done within a week before the debt ceiling, when the Senate hasn't agreed and none of the members have been selected. Thankfully, the White House threatened to veto this idea. The Democrats already have said the regular budget conference is enough to handle this.

++But, the Tan Man was overshadowed by Senator John McCain, who said the GOP oversold the prospects of defunding Obamacare (with a dig at Cruz) and said we should be embarrassed because congress' approval rating is now down to one's family and the paid staffers.

++When you have lost Jennifer Rubin, you know the Republicans are in trouble. In her late afternoon post column, she eviscerates the changing GOP strategies and arguments for the shutdown.

++The problem in this town is that no Republican ever,ever listens to a word the President says. In his remarks, he gave Boehner the face saving method of passing a CR. Give it Clean and then append what subjects you want to talk about. But not demands. Instead, we have Boehner rehashing 2011 and yakking about an unworkable commission,which would surpass all deadlines and not reach any agreements.

++Notice how Joe Biden is nowhere to be found. That's because Obama is in no mood to negotiate and Harry Reid was ripped last time about Obama going over his back. This afternoon as President Obama was finishing his press conference he convened the Senate with all members present, which is unusual, and read the riot act to the House Republicans. He is proceeding with a clean debt ceiling vote--hell or high water.