++kos blogged today that the GOP has thrown in the towel on Pennsylvania, one of their Voter ID states. The evidence was that Americans for Prosperity (the Koch group) pulled their ad buys for the fall and instead shifted to New Mexico where the Presidential election is not in play. While the Romney campaign still spends money there, it is less. The reason is that President Obama has won over 21 polls since the campaign started. The latest Philadelphia Inquirer poll has Obama with a 51-42 lead. Muhlenberg a 49-40 lead and Quinnipiac a 53-42 lead so voter suppression won't do much good.
++A new poll of Latinos gives President Obama a 65 to 26 lead. Romney needs to be near 35 to have a chance at the election. Or he must drive Obama below 37% of the white vote.
++There is a reason the GOP wants to hide their platform that calls for constitutional amendment against abortion. Americans support the right to an abortion if it involves rape, the health of the mother or the life of the mother by anyway from 80 to close to 90%.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Strange Doings in Tampa
++The GOP convention got off to a wobbly start. Rinse Penis tried to explain The Donald's absence and why Willard's birther joke was alright. The Ron Paul delegates are still incensed about the Rules Committee power play. Michael Steele shouted down Republicans complaining about Tampa as the site of the convention. And tweeting from the floor remarked how dazzling white the whole crowd was.
++Chris Matthews accused Rinse Penis on the Morning Joe show of playing the race card this morning. Romney surrogate Haley Barbour returned the accusation at President Obama. Then Romney himself said that President Obama changed the welfare requirements because he was "shoring up his base." So the base is supposed to be welfare recipients. Of course reality is that states have to ask the Administration for wavers on any changes in welfare. Now the Romney camp launched another ad blasting Obama for both the welfare "change" and stealing funds from Medicare to pay for Obamacare. Two for One. Romney tripling down on these two issues even though any normal human being knows they are false does show he is playing the "Race Card" . Why? The GOP knows that you must stoke the resentment of lower middle class whites against minorities and not let the Obama critique of the uberwealthy gain any traction. Whether taking the "Southern strategy" national will win is another matter.
++A Time/CNN poll shows Obama beating Romney 50-46 in Florida. Women favor Obama by 54-42 and minorities Obama 70-29. Romney leads in North Carolina by 1. Obama also hit a 50% approval rating in two national polls today which is a good sign. Rasmussen has Obama ahead 47-44 in his tracking poll. But he may want to establish the "narrative" of "America's Comeback Team".
++John McCain's old campaign team blasted the Romney people for not enough outreach to Hispanics. Unfortunately, the GOP Platform has been leaking out all day. The section on immigration is rough, forbidding any types of amnesty and arguing for a humane policy of "self-deportation", Romney's own language from the primaries. The GOP platform also argued for the impeachment of judges who rule contrary to the "people's opinion". Also, instead of taking the high ground on Medicare, the leaked section promised radical changes along the lines of the Ryan Plan.
++Willard said he doesn't really have a like ability problem because he was elected President of his booster club at Brigham Young, which shows he gets along with people. This was at a time Brigham Young was being boycotted by the NCAA for his racism.
++Do any of the dog whistles on race turn off white voters? Doesn't anyone resent being manipulated by appeals to racism?
++Chris Matthews accused Rinse Penis on the Morning Joe show of playing the race card this morning. Romney surrogate Haley Barbour returned the accusation at President Obama. Then Romney himself said that President Obama changed the welfare requirements because he was "shoring up his base." So the base is supposed to be welfare recipients. Of course reality is that states have to ask the Administration for wavers on any changes in welfare. Now the Romney camp launched another ad blasting Obama for both the welfare "change" and stealing funds from Medicare to pay for Obamacare. Two for One. Romney tripling down on these two issues even though any normal human being knows they are false does show he is playing the "Race Card" . Why? The GOP knows that you must stoke the resentment of lower middle class whites against minorities and not let the Obama critique of the uberwealthy gain any traction. Whether taking the "Southern strategy" national will win is another matter.
++A Time/CNN poll shows Obama beating Romney 50-46 in Florida. Women favor Obama by 54-42 and minorities Obama 70-29. Romney leads in North Carolina by 1. Obama also hit a 50% approval rating in two national polls today which is a good sign. Rasmussen has Obama ahead 47-44 in his tracking poll. But he may want to establish the "narrative" of "America's Comeback Team".
++John McCain's old campaign team blasted the Romney people for not enough outreach to Hispanics. Unfortunately, the GOP Platform has been leaking out all day. The section on immigration is rough, forbidding any types of amnesty and arguing for a humane policy of "self-deportation", Romney's own language from the primaries. The GOP platform also argued for the impeachment of judges who rule contrary to the "people's opinion". Also, instead of taking the high ground on Medicare, the leaked section promised radical changes along the lines of the Ryan Plan.
++Willard said he doesn't really have a like ability problem because he was elected President of his booster club at Brigham Young, which shows he gets along with people. This was at a time Brigham Young was being boycotted by the NCAA for his racism.
++Do any of the dog whistles on race turn off white voters? Doesn't anyone resent being manipulated by appeals to racism?
Prelude To Romney Make-Over
++Forget about any of Romney's positions until after the Convention. And forget about Romney amending his tax return to show his Swiss bank account. And forget about Todd Akins and his role in co-sponsoring with Paul Ryan the restrictive abortion laws in the House let alone mentioning "legitimate" rape.Forget about the anti-immigration laws. This convention is about the start of the real campaign against President Obama and all the above is irrelevant.
++The Washington Post/ABC poll dutifully has Romney 1 point in the lead despite others showing the President ahead. So we start tied--if you also forget the last two Pennsylvania polls and the recent Quinnipiac poll of Ohio. The media narrative of the Swing States will play out as planned through the election. People will grasp at the Columbus-Dispatch's tied poll in Ohio, the latest marginal poll in Michigan.
It's like the table is set for a lot of fancy vote-rigging in the fall when the money starts flooding the country.
++The RNC Convention is a police state like last convention. The military, the state police, the secret service, the police and the FBI are out in force to ensure there are no disruptive demonstrations.
++Inside the Convention Center the RNC has changed the rules of the party against the wishes of conservatives and libertarians so that any insurgent groups that master the caucus process like Ron Paul will not show benefit. Meanwhile the Platform Committee has written the most conservative platform in modern memory.
++But before Willard Romney re-invents himself once again in life and in this campaign, let's not forget some of his positions in the last week alone.
...Against the heritage of Theodore Roosevelt, he advocated drilling for oil in national parks and that this drilling would be approved by the states, not the federal government. Most observers flashed on the "drilling" aspect not the transfer of authority to states that now can be bought by the extraction industry like the old days. This is a radical notion that has been fostered by modern federalists.
...He claims that he will make North America energy independent by 2020. And he reiterated his desire to exploit the Canadian tar sands and upgrade the Mexican oil industry. He claims this will generate 3 million jobs. He also wants to expand oil drilling off Virginia and the Gulf Coast.
...He scoffs at any linkage of him and Todd Akin. The barrage against him on women's issues he countered by finally embracing his healthcare plan in Massachusetts. When politically convenient, he will go anywhere.
...For those who missed it, he promised to put troops on the ground in Syria and wage war against Iran to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon. He also promised to restore the "cuts to military spending" that he conveniently neglects to mention were agreed to by the House Republicans, including Paul Ryan. He also promised to increase military spending since America only accounts for 41% of military spending worldwide and is Number 1-17 countries combined in this area.
...Even though every news outlet has debunked his attack on President Obama allegedly removing "work" requirements from welfare, he continues on bring to solidify white lower class resentment about minorities. He is deliberately playing a race card even though one wonders whether it will work.
...He did reiterate his desire to cut taxes for the wealthy this past week but denies that his program would entail raises on taxes on people earning less than $250,000. It would but maybe even that doesn't matter since the middle-class now composes only about 51% of the population.
++But you can forget all this because the RNC line is that if they had passed a stimulus then unemployment would be below 6%. Since half the stimulus incorporated Republican suggestions but only three voted for it, it is a peculiar argument. But it is a vulnerability because the Obama Administration underestimated the scale of the economic collapse. The other fact is that employment in the public sector has vanished over the last 3 years since the explosion in the Bush years.
++The good news is that the networks will have minimal coverage since everything is so choreographed. The actual nomination process will be held tomorrow before the evening recess so no one will see the Ron Paul delegates get up and make speeches. Like the whole Romney campaign, it will be conducted out of sight.
++You will see plenty of Republican women, who will try and steer the conversation toward the economy, and you will see Marco Rubio introduce Romney and a handful of African-Americans to make the party look inclusive.
++You will not see the Donald--he can't make it-- but you will see at least seven speakers who are birthers. Sheldon Adelson, the Casino magnate, will be flying in and the David Koch will be feted by Americans for Prosperity, an astro turf group he founded. Vishnu Jindal may not make it because of Isaac bearing down on New Orleans.
++The anti-Obama rhetoric will be amped up. So it will be interesting to see whether Romney gets a bounce. The media is already preparing the ground for this.
++One observation is that the economic proposals at the convention will be for a restoration of the FIRE economy--Finance Insurance and Real Estate, and maybe Energy. It will advocate the privatizing of the last vestiges of the public sector. But don't expect a frank discussion on Medicare or Social Security or Medicaid. Overtly arguing for the dismantling of the social welfare system would only change the topic away from the economy.
THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT TOMORROW IS THE RELEASE OF "BOARDWALK EMPIRE--SEASON 2". Save your sanity and watch that instead.
++The Washington Post/ABC poll dutifully has Romney 1 point in the lead despite others showing the President ahead. So we start tied--if you also forget the last two Pennsylvania polls and the recent Quinnipiac poll of Ohio. The media narrative of the Swing States will play out as planned through the election. People will grasp at the Columbus-Dispatch's tied poll in Ohio, the latest marginal poll in Michigan.
It's like the table is set for a lot of fancy vote-rigging in the fall when the money starts flooding the country.
++The RNC Convention is a police state like last convention. The military, the state police, the secret service, the police and the FBI are out in force to ensure there are no disruptive demonstrations.
++Inside the Convention Center the RNC has changed the rules of the party against the wishes of conservatives and libertarians so that any insurgent groups that master the caucus process like Ron Paul will not show benefit. Meanwhile the Platform Committee has written the most conservative platform in modern memory.
++But before Willard Romney re-invents himself once again in life and in this campaign, let's not forget some of his positions in the last week alone.
...Against the heritage of Theodore Roosevelt, he advocated drilling for oil in national parks and that this drilling would be approved by the states, not the federal government. Most observers flashed on the "drilling" aspect not the transfer of authority to states that now can be bought by the extraction industry like the old days. This is a radical notion that has been fostered by modern federalists.
...He claims that he will make North America energy independent by 2020. And he reiterated his desire to exploit the Canadian tar sands and upgrade the Mexican oil industry. He claims this will generate 3 million jobs. He also wants to expand oil drilling off Virginia and the Gulf Coast.
...He scoffs at any linkage of him and Todd Akin. The barrage against him on women's issues he countered by finally embracing his healthcare plan in Massachusetts. When politically convenient, he will go anywhere.
...For those who missed it, he promised to put troops on the ground in Syria and wage war against Iran to stop them from getting a nuclear weapon. He also promised to restore the "cuts to military spending" that he conveniently neglects to mention were agreed to by the House Republicans, including Paul Ryan. He also promised to increase military spending since America only accounts for 41% of military spending worldwide and is Number 1-17 countries combined in this area.
...Even though every news outlet has debunked his attack on President Obama allegedly removing "work" requirements from welfare, he continues on bring to solidify white lower class resentment about minorities. He is deliberately playing a race card even though one wonders whether it will work.
...He did reiterate his desire to cut taxes for the wealthy this past week but denies that his program would entail raises on taxes on people earning less than $250,000. It would but maybe even that doesn't matter since the middle-class now composes only about 51% of the population.
++But you can forget all this because the RNC line is that if they had passed a stimulus then unemployment would be below 6%. Since half the stimulus incorporated Republican suggestions but only three voted for it, it is a peculiar argument. But it is a vulnerability because the Obama Administration underestimated the scale of the economic collapse. The other fact is that employment in the public sector has vanished over the last 3 years since the explosion in the Bush years.
++The good news is that the networks will have minimal coverage since everything is so choreographed. The actual nomination process will be held tomorrow before the evening recess so no one will see the Ron Paul delegates get up and make speeches. Like the whole Romney campaign, it will be conducted out of sight.
++You will see plenty of Republican women, who will try and steer the conversation toward the economy, and you will see Marco Rubio introduce Romney and a handful of African-Americans to make the party look inclusive.
++You will not see the Donald--he can't make it-- but you will see at least seven speakers who are birthers. Sheldon Adelson, the Casino magnate, will be flying in and the David Koch will be feted by Americans for Prosperity, an astro turf group he founded. Vishnu Jindal may not make it because of Isaac bearing down on New Orleans.
++The anti-Obama rhetoric will be amped up. So it will be interesting to see whether Romney gets a bounce. The media is already preparing the ground for this.
++One observation is that the economic proposals at the convention will be for a restoration of the FIRE economy--Finance Insurance and Real Estate, and maybe Energy. It will advocate the privatizing of the last vestiges of the public sector. But don't expect a frank discussion on Medicare or Social Security or Medicaid. Overtly arguing for the dismantling of the social welfare system would only change the topic away from the economy.
THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT TOMORROW IS THE RELEASE OF "BOARDWALK EMPIRE--SEASON 2". Save your sanity and watch that instead.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Mourning in Amercia Postponed
++Since the Republican Convention has been postponed a day due to tropical storms, we present some materials that will prepare you for the event.
For musical entertainment:
Ry Cooder's Election Special. Ry Cooder has produced an album reviving his blues roots and aiming for topicality. His lead off song is a ditty "Mutt Romney Blues" and he gets in his economic message with "The Wall Street Part of Town" and "The 90 and the 9". As always you can't beat Cooder's playing but on this album his voice has reached the right space for the blues.
For a tribute to the massive oil donations to the Romney campaign, check out the DVD version of the film "There will be Blood."
For the faux hawk message from the convention, "Apocalypse Now" where Kurtz played by Marlon Brando says," Willard, you are nothing but an errand boy for some grocery clerks."
For the readers:
Margaret Atwood's "The Handmaid's Tale"
Phillip K. Dick "The Minority Report"
James Ellroy "American Tabloid"
For a nice read with no relevance to politics, Paul Auster "Winter Journal"
For musical entertainment:
Ry Cooder's Election Special. Ry Cooder has produced an album reviving his blues roots and aiming for topicality. His lead off song is a ditty "Mutt Romney Blues" and he gets in his economic message with "The Wall Street Part of Town" and "The 90 and the 9". As always you can't beat Cooder's playing but on this album his voice has reached the right space for the blues.
For a tribute to the massive oil donations to the Romney campaign, check out the DVD version of the film "There will be Blood."
For the faux hawk message from the convention, "Apocalypse Now" where Kurtz played by Marlon Brando says," Willard, you are nothing but an errand boy for some grocery clerks."
For the readers:
Margaret Atwood's "The Handmaid's Tale"
Phillip K. Dick "The Minority Report"
James Ellroy "American Tabloid"
For a nice read with no relevance to politics, Paul Auster "Winter Journal"
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Hurrah! Pastor Rick Warren Cancels Saddleback Event
++I was hoping President Obama would not take the bait--but he did by agreeing to Rick Warren's Cone of Silence discussion with Mitt Romney.
++Rick Warren cancelled because he said his forum was meant to foster civility in the political arena but instead he claimed this was the ugliest campaign and so mean-spirited he had no choice but to cancel this forum between a Protestant and a Mormon.
++I think this is probably the best news for Obama in the last few days that has seen crazy polls and a new electoral model that predicts Romney will sweep the swing states and win the election.
++Rick Warren cancelled because he said his forum was meant to foster civility in the political arena but instead he claimed this was the ugliest campaign and so mean-spirited he had no choice but to cancel this forum between a Protestant and a Mormon.
++I think this is probably the best news for Obama in the last few days that has seen crazy polls and a new electoral model that predicts Romney will sweep the swing states and win the election.
Monday, August 20, 2012
David Axelrod on Electoral College
++The New York Times reports that the Romney campaign has a two to 1 advantage this month over President Obama. The Obama campaign has been conditioning supporters to this eventuality and claim as long as they can main competitive in this area and have a good GOTV organization they will do fine. Personally, I see this moving into the scenarios we saw in 2010 and the triumph of the tea baggers by outspending the opposition.
++In an interview with Politico this afternoon, David Axelrod outlined his view of the electoral college. he says that it now stands Obama 247 to Romney 191. This mirrors Realclearpolitics' 237-191 margin. A dailykos blogger guesses the difference is Wisconsin, which the Obama campaign says leans Obama right now.
Team Obama outlines the various scenarios:
Florida Option--Win Florida and win the whole thing.
Virginia Option-- Virginia and 10EVs (take your pick)
Colorado Option--Colorado and 13 EVs.
Ohio Option--Ohio and 5 Evs (take you pick of swing states)
Obama's August schedule has been emphasizing picking up the small states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
The Obama campaign still thinks North Carolina is a toss-up and they intend to bog Romney down there because of Romney it is a must-win state.
Today Romney had what was really planned as Ryan's rollout in New Hampshire. What was interesting was that the throng on a beautiful New Hampshire day was filled with out of staters and the Romney campaign actually discouraged in-staters for the Townhall meeting. It was the last joint appearance before the convention.
It was also announced today that Romney will stress his Mormonism at the Convention. Also the Republicans will make Romney the kindler and gentler old man by constructing a "Frank Lloyd Wright" style stage with warm woods and lots of light.
Clearly Obama struck the right note today when he said the presidency is a privilege not an entitlement. The remark was made in his discussion on Romney not releasing his taxes and why the American people demand transparency.
People have observed that Romney's campaign habits are odd. He went boating the other day with his wife and attended fund-raising dinners. He will only discuss his plans after he is elected otherwise his campaign claims it would be suicidal. He will not release any of his tax returns because they would damage him. That's what we call buying a pig in a poke. It clearly seems Romney is depending on his donors and the Superpacs buying him this election. After all this is what Citizens United was meant for.
Romney tripled down on his Welfare Ad against Obama to strengthen resentment of the poor and for a black President. You must never resent upwards. Today, the 1% now has 90% of the nation's wealth. It is important you don't think about that.
++In an interview with Politico this afternoon, David Axelrod outlined his view of the electoral college. he says that it now stands Obama 247 to Romney 191. This mirrors Realclearpolitics' 237-191 margin. A dailykos blogger guesses the difference is Wisconsin, which the Obama campaign says leans Obama right now.
Team Obama outlines the various scenarios:
Florida Option--Win Florida and win the whole thing.
Virginia Option-- Virginia and 10EVs (take your pick)
Colorado Option--Colorado and 13 EVs.
Ohio Option--Ohio and 5 Evs (take you pick of swing states)
Obama's August schedule has been emphasizing picking up the small states of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
The Obama campaign still thinks North Carolina is a toss-up and they intend to bog Romney down there because of Romney it is a must-win state.
Today Romney had what was really planned as Ryan's rollout in New Hampshire. What was interesting was that the throng on a beautiful New Hampshire day was filled with out of staters and the Romney campaign actually discouraged in-staters for the Townhall meeting. It was the last joint appearance before the convention.
It was also announced today that Romney will stress his Mormonism at the Convention. Also the Republicans will make Romney the kindler and gentler old man by constructing a "Frank Lloyd Wright" style stage with warm woods and lots of light.
Clearly Obama struck the right note today when he said the presidency is a privilege not an entitlement. The remark was made in his discussion on Romney not releasing his taxes and why the American people demand transparency.
People have observed that Romney's campaign habits are odd. He went boating the other day with his wife and attended fund-raising dinners. He will only discuss his plans after he is elected otherwise his campaign claims it would be suicidal. He will not release any of his tax returns because they would damage him. That's what we call buying a pig in a poke. It clearly seems Romney is depending on his donors and the Superpacs buying him this election. After all this is what Citizens United was meant for.
Romney tripled down on his Welfare Ad against Obama to strengthen resentment of the poor and for a black President. You must never resent upwards. Today, the 1% now has 90% of the nation's wealth. It is important you don't think about that.
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