Morning After The Pledge

The definitive statement on the Republicans' new Pledge to America was the segment on John Stewart's Show. He interspersed clips of Republicans saying the same things since 1994 and had a wonderful mix of John Boehner saying the same things for the last ten years. Eugene Robinson basically was stunned by the the bewildering confusion of the document calling the GOP "The Party of Nonsense". It was panned in a lead editorial from the Washington Post, which was charitable in saying its would increase the deficit by $4 trillion. My math yesterday holds up. Rachel Maddow did an excellent job showing that the Republicans want to repeal Obamacare and replace it with---Obamacare. Basically, six major points of the current healthcare legislation are part of the new GOP campaign strategy--all of them had been implemented yesterday. Conservatives were even more devastating in their critique of it. The American Spectator lampooned it. And John Boehner gave the Democrats the opening that needed by trying to reassure the press conference, "We're the same as we always been." Unlike Newt's 10 point program, no one can or will be able to roll the main points here off the top of their heads.

Rachel Maddow lamented that the GOP will be running on healthcare when Democrats are shying away from it. The point of yesterday's press conference in a hardware store was really this-- Obama still controls the language of the debate. Even the hardware store--a favorite venue for President Obama when he wants to show off energy saving window insulations--was used by a set of very uncomfortable looking people, who shouldn't dress casual. Even the healthcare language is almost literally taken from the Heathcare Bill.

I still believe it is a mistake that the Democrats don't force the vote on tax cuts. I think it's vitally important to put the GOP on the record against middle class tax cuts. The Democrats blew this chance once before with the tax cuts for the middle class in the stimulus bill. They never started saying Republicans were against tax cuts for the average American, when they had the chance. David Axelrod's comments yesterday that the Democrats have made the point clearly to the American people just doesn't wash. The one thing Americans equate with Republicans is tax cuts. This time Democrats could take that language away from them.

Republicans, who are already measuring the drapes, now say they will be using the reconciliation process to reap health reform and "other entitlements". Remember when the Republicans screamed and yelled about using reconciliation to pass healthcare. Democrats were jamming the bill down America's throats. And if we are picky, remember the Bush tax cuts had to be passed the same way.

NBC has their voter confidence index out and say that Democrats will lose more than in 1994. Interesting methodology, they compared this index during all mid-terms of Presidents and found that Obama was below Reagan's at this point. But I would like to know the comparative VCI for the opposition. Almost all the election narrative this year has been written about the majority party and any slip in favorability and approval will naturally redound to the opposition. This year has been very peculiar because while approval ratings for Democrats are flagging, there are still nothing compared with the basement numbers of Republicans. And in the past mid-terms that were wave elections, the winner usually had superior ratings to the loser.

Chris Bower at Daily Kos keeps the Senate tallies based on average polling. It's still Democrats 52 and Republicans 48. Digging deeper in the numbers, I see that 4 more seats are very winnable for Democrats if their GOTV operation is in full force. The only one with Democrats teetering on the brink is electotal-vote.com, which has Democrats at 51. And here you have to get into the possibility of a Lieberman switch, which he is capable of.

In the governor's race, which I have flagged from the beginning of the year or before, Texas Governor Rick Perry is in trouble. Yesterday, he announced he would not meet with any of the newspapers in the state--a new campaign twist being used by Republicans this year. The Dallas newspaper has already endorsed White. Also, the Texas Farm Bureau, which routinely endorses the Republican, has announced it will not endorse anyone this year. Perry's troubles worsened when Texas woke up one morning to find they had a deficit of around $18 billion.

Now, Democrats should be concerned about the arson that destroyed all of Houston's voting machines. How this will affect the election in the long run remains to be seen. While Bill White is as dull as dishwater, he has a rather remarkable record of achievement in managing Houston. He came to the attention of America with his able handling of the Katrina refugees.
The Dallas Businessmen have endorsed him, which should indicate what low esteem Perry is held among the state's private sector, which is dominated by Republicans. One fly in the oinment here is that Republicans are funding the unemployed to run as Green candidates to siphon off Democratic votes. And all of you Nader voters should remember what happened when the GOP funded Ralph in 2000.

Queen Meg Whitman has adopted the anti-newspaper practice of the GOP. She became the first-ever candidate in California history to refuse to meet with the editorial board of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Progressive bloggers are claiming that Obama has lost the gay vote for a generation. The complaint here is the DOJ response to the judge's ruling that DADT is unconstitutional has asked for limited applicability of an injunction. This is called waiting. The Obama Administration made a commitment--wrong in my opinion--to hear from the armed services about the effects on the repeal of DADT on military readiness. They wanted to know whether Bryan Fisher was right that men would be fellated in their sleep. Just kidding. And who would object? So the DOJ request is to buy time because the court calender about a real request to appeal coincides almost to the day of the so-called Pentagon report. The Administration in their request to the court did emphasize the Administration's commitment to repealing DADT. Chug-Chug. It's heading there whether anyone wants it or not. It just takes about two more months. Instead, progressive gays should rally behind John Cornyn, who has a O rating on gays rights issues but is being given the Barry Goldwater award by the Log Cabin Republicans.

There is a poll out in California--where Democrats have an overwhelming generic edge for Congress, that shows that only 38% want Nancy Pelosi to remains as Speaker of the House. It's not they want Tan Man but another Democrat. Having disliked Nancy Pelosi, his style and manner for years, I have to admit she is responsible for more positive legislation to benefit more Americans than any other speaker in my adult lifetime. If you have a complaint with Congress, it should be centered on the Senate. The House's record in passing the most progressive legislation in a generation is remarkable. You should ask the Senate where the 400 bills the House passed stand in their queue. If the House goes the other way, not only will all these accomplishments be jeopardized but the Tan Man will run the House like the Marx Brothers.

I think people are being too hard on the Republican candidate Russell Martin in Westchester, New York for his racism, anti-integration positions, anti-semiticism. Can you imagine we're talking Westchester, New York and a candidate for Congress? Martin wrote that "too many free-thinking Jews are dangerous for society." People misunderstand this--he really is Harpo , not a Groucho fan. Or how many is too much? Could you really stand Groucho, Woody Allen, John Daily all together? See, there is room for debate here. The chairman of the New York Republican Party says they are trying everything to remove him from the ballot.

If you want a more realistic approach to how our politics really is these days, go to the redesigned www.wonkette.com or the Onion, which ran a piece that 20% of Americans believe Obama is a cactus. We still don't have this period's Hunter Thompson.