Morning After The Pledge

The definitive statement on the Republicans' new Pledge to America was the segment on John Stewart's Show. He interspersed clips of Republicans saying the same things since 1994 and had a wonderful mix of John Boehner saying the same things for the last ten years. Eugene Robinson basically was stunned by the the bewildering confusion of the document calling the GOP "The Party of Nonsense". It was panned in a lead editorial from the Washington Post, which was charitable in saying its would increase the deficit by $4 trillion. My math yesterday holds up. Rachel Maddow did an excellent job showing that the Republicans want to repeal Obamacare and replace it with---Obamacare. Basically, six major points of the current healthcare legislation are part of the new GOP campaign strategy--all of them had been implemented yesterday. Conservatives were even more devastating in their critique of it. The American Spectator lampooned it. And John Boehner gave the Democrats the opening that needed by trying to reassure the press conference, "We're the same as we always been." Unlike Newt's 10 point program, no one can or will be able to roll the main points here off the top of their heads.

Rachel Maddow lamented that the GOP will be running on healthcare when Democrats are shying away from it. The point of yesterday's press conference in a hardware store was really this-- Obama still controls the language of the debate. Even the hardware store--a favorite venue for President Obama when he wants to show off energy saving window insulations--was used by a set of very uncomfortable looking people, who shouldn't dress casual. Even the healthcare language is almost literally taken from the Heathcare Bill.

I still believe it is a mistake that the Democrats don't force the vote on tax cuts. I think it's vitally important to put the GOP on the record against middle class tax cuts. The Democrats blew this chance once before with the tax cuts for the middle class in the stimulus bill. They never started saying Republicans were against tax cuts for the average American, when they had the chance. David Axelrod's comments yesterday that the Democrats have made the point clearly to the American people just doesn't wash. The one thing Americans equate with Republicans is tax cuts. This time Democrats could take that language away from them.

Republicans, who are already measuring the drapes, now say they will be using the reconciliation process to reap health reform and "other entitlements". Remember when the Republicans screamed and yelled about using reconciliation to pass healthcare. Democrats were jamming the bill down America's throats. And if we are picky, remember the Bush tax cuts had to be passed the same way.

NBC has their voter confidence index out and say that Democrats will lose more than in 1994. Interesting methodology, they compared this index during all mid-terms of Presidents and found that Obama was below Reagan's at this point. But I would like to know the comparative VCI for the opposition. Almost all the election narrative this year has been written about the majority party and any slip in favorability and approval will naturally redound to the opposition. This year has been very peculiar because while approval ratings for Democrats are flagging, there are still nothing compared with the basement numbers of Republicans. And in the past mid-terms that were wave elections, the winner usually had superior ratings to the loser.

Chris Bower at Daily Kos keeps the Senate tallies based on average polling. It's still Democrats 52 and Republicans 48. Digging deeper in the numbers, I see that 4 more seats are very winnable for Democrats if their GOTV operation is in full force. The only one with Democrats teetering on the brink is electotal-vote.com, which has Democrats at 51. And here you have to get into the possibility of a Lieberman switch, which he is capable of.

In the governor's race, which I have flagged from the beginning of the year or before, Texas Governor Rick Perry is in trouble. Yesterday, he announced he would not meet with any of the newspapers in the state--a new campaign twist being used by Republicans this year. The Dallas newspaper has already endorsed White. Also, the Texas Farm Bureau, which routinely endorses the Republican, has announced it will not endorse anyone this year. Perry's troubles worsened when Texas woke up one morning to find they had a deficit of around $18 billion.

Now, Democrats should be concerned about the arson that destroyed all of Houston's voting machines. How this will affect the election in the long run remains to be seen. While Bill White is as dull as dishwater, he has a rather remarkable record of achievement in managing Houston. He came to the attention of America with his able handling of the Katrina refugees.
The Dallas Businessmen have endorsed him, which should indicate what low esteem Perry is held among the state's private sector, which is dominated by Republicans. One fly in the oinment here is that Republicans are funding the unemployed to run as Green candidates to siphon off Democratic votes. And all of you Nader voters should remember what happened when the GOP funded Ralph in 2000.

Queen Meg Whitman has adopted the anti-newspaper practice of the GOP. She became the first-ever candidate in California history to refuse to meet with the editorial board of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Progressive bloggers are claiming that Obama has lost the gay vote for a generation. The complaint here is the DOJ response to the judge's ruling that DADT is unconstitutional has asked for limited applicability of an injunction. This is called waiting. The Obama Administration made a commitment--wrong in my opinion--to hear from the armed services about the effects on the repeal of DADT on military readiness. They wanted to know whether Bryan Fisher was right that men would be fellated in their sleep. Just kidding. And who would object? So the DOJ request is to buy time because the court calender about a real request to appeal coincides almost to the day of the so-called Pentagon report. The Administration in their request to the court did emphasize the Administration's commitment to repealing DADT. Chug-Chug. It's heading there whether anyone wants it or not. It just takes about two more months. Instead, progressive gays should rally behind John Cornyn, who has a O rating on gays rights issues but is being given the Barry Goldwater award by the Log Cabin Republicans.

There is a poll out in California--where Democrats have an overwhelming generic edge for Congress, that shows that only 38% want Nancy Pelosi to remains as Speaker of the House. It's not they want Tan Man but another Democrat. Having disliked Nancy Pelosi, his style and manner for years, I have to admit she is responsible for more positive legislation to benefit more Americans than any other speaker in my adult lifetime. If you have a complaint with Congress, it should be centered on the Senate. The House's record in passing the most progressive legislation in a generation is remarkable. You should ask the Senate where the 400 bills the House passed stand in their queue. If the House goes the other way, not only will all these accomplishments be jeopardized but the Tan Man will run the House like the Marx Brothers.

I think people are being too hard on the Republican candidate Russell Martin in Westchester, New York for his racism, anti-integration positions, anti-semiticism. Can you imagine we're talking Westchester, New York and a candidate for Congress? Martin wrote that "too many free-thinking Jews are dangerous for society." People misunderstand this--he really is Harpo , not a Groucho fan. Or how many is too much? Could you really stand Groucho, Woody Allen, John Daily all together? See, there is room for debate here. The chairman of the New York Republican Party says they are trying everything to remove him from the ballot.

If you want a more realistic approach to how our politics really is these days, go to the redesigned www.wonkette.com or the Onion, which ran a piece that 20% of Americans believe Obama is a cactus. We still don't have this period's Hunter Thompson.

Pledge--a Big Flop

It didn't take long for all opinion magazines and bloggers on both the right and left to laugh off the Pledge to America. Having read over two dozen comments, the comments range from pablum and worn-out ideas to "the worst thing to come out of Washington since General McClellan"--that's from a conservative. Conservatives claim that Republicans made no specific recommendations or ways to cut the deficit and do not believe Republicans have the discipline to enact their own program. Democrats rightfully claim this is a full-blown return to the George W. Bush policies and will only vastly increase the deficit. AP and other wires claim there are no new ideas and no specifics but rather it was aimed to make the base feel good. The Religious Right condemned it because being anti-abortion doesn't go far enough anymore with them. Foreign policy mavens note that both Iraq and Afghanistan are barely mentioned and that the only foreign policy issue is tightening sanctions against Iran, which one conservative dismisses as inadequate to the threat. He was hoping for a more hawkish invade Iran.But one person noted with relief that Republicans were not advocating going back to "enhanced interrogation" of everyone suspected of being a terrorist. So this was counted as progress. China, Pakistan, Europe, Africa and everyplace on planet Earth was neglected, despite the Pledge mentioning that the USA was the hope of all mankind.

Marc Ambinder lamented the fact the Republicans didn't write it so the Democrats couldn't demagogue it. Sorry Marc. Then one post on Dailykos actually went through all the photographs in the release and noted that every photo showed white people with the possible exception of a black person in the back of a restaurant shot. And even that was in doubt. After all, the Republican base is all white now. I'm surprised they didn't just limit the photographs to white men over 55.

The Tan Man did say today that he has never been in a tanning salon. Maybe he should get the tax on tanning beds repealed.

One error from yesterday, I miswrote that it it was Queen Meg Whitman , who was going to be feted by the Koch Brothers, but it is Carly Fiorina. I guess Carly really does need more money for her campaign, while Queen Meg has enough of her own. Speaking of the Koch Brothers, the Manhattan based one now has surpassed Michael Bloomberg as the richest person in New York City.

The Senate missed by one vote today to hold a vote on the Disclose Act, which would require companies to openly identify with political ads. The bill passed the House with only 1 Republican vote. I guess the one who isn't getting corporate funding. Rumors suggested Senator Durbin was to put forward the Dream Act today.

If anyone can tell me what the Democrats' strategy on tax cuts is, I'd appreciate it. Earlier in the day the House reported that there would be no vote before the election since they were waiting on the Senate and believed it would be filibustered. At that time, Democrats argued that they had already made a strong case against the Republicans. My problem with this is that most people actually believe Obama raised their taxes, even though they received a tax cut through the stimulus package. Politically, I think it's important to box the Republicans in on this to establish the high ground for the election. By late afternoon, David Axelrod said that they wanted a vote even if it failed for just that reason. Obama took the tax issue away from the Republicans in 2008 and until now has kept it for himself. But letting the Republicans out of the box now would diffuse the strength of the Democrats' position. Keep tuning in.

But as I said, if you let all tax cuts expire, you have a balanced budget. Besides read today a long article that showed that the tax cuts for any bracket did absolutely zero for the economy and of course did not raise revenues for the Government as promised by the Republicans.

The GOP is trying to push aside our anti-semite candidate I mentioned yesterday. They are also annoyed that Mike Castle is threatening to have a write in campaign for Senator in Delaware. he has the easier issue that everyone can spell his name because it's the name of a County in the state, while the name Murkowski just confuses people in Alaska.

Polls suggest that Hapless Harry Reid still has an upward battle in Nevada against John Bircher Sharron Angle. But he could be saved because there is also a spot for "None of the Above", whch actually won one recent race in Nevada.

I still Russ Feingold is toast and not from the polling data. There is a serious effort to cage votes in all the student areas of Wisconsin, where he would draw considerable support. This effort is being led by the Tea Party and Americans for Prosperity.

Rahm Emmanuel looks like he will be leaving the White House in October to run for Mayor of Chicago. David Axelrod is leaving in 2011 to begin the organization for Obama's re-election run.

Finally, a poll was released yesterday that pissed-off Democrats are more likely to vote and not those satisfied with the way things are.

Thursday Blues

Congratulations everybody, the next tranche of health insurance reforms have hit today. There was one point that I had missed the other day, which is of personal importance. Insurance companies will have to pay for all your emergency procedures even though you don't come through your primary physician. Strange wording. But this occured to me when I returned from Africa and went to Johns Hopkins for eye problems. After examing me, they concluded I had a torn and detached retina and whisked me away for a six hour operation. Later the surgeon told me that if they hadn't done it then, I would be totally blind in one eye. Let's say that's not elective surgery. But my insurance company protested about paying any of the bill because my primary physician had not been notified--like I carry his phone number on me. The insurance issue is still not resolved. But with the new health reform, this would not be a problem. Emergency surgery--no problem.

While I'm for Medicare for everyone to take out the chronic anxiety over the financial issues over health care--it's bad enough you have to concentrate on getting well, the reforms that take effect today basically mean I don't have to go bankrupt for anything serious. Even a routine heart attack would bankrupt me at this rate. Apparently, all the speakers at the Values Summits--allegedly Christians-- disagree with me. Mike Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, doesn't believe people with pre-existing conditions should be insured. Sharron Angle doesn't believe there should be assistance to people with autism. I'm sure they would also all agree that Chris Hitchens should not get treatment for his cancer because of his atheism and chronic smoking and drinking. It's wonderful to see such loving people believe in a punitive life and a coercive state. But they all agree on the dangers posed by witches. And that's what you will get if the GOP comes back. But at least it will be paternalistic authoritarianism as witnessed the tone of the Pledge to America.

Another poll came out from Zogby--caveat emptor--that shows Democrats with a 1% generic lead in the congressional races, which tracks with the continued upward trend. Obama also has an approval rating of 49%. Other polls show weird discrepancies between the results with Likely Voters and those with Registered Voters. Bennett beats Buck in Colorado with registered voters, loses with likely voters; Sestak ties Toomey with registered and loses with likely voters; Feingold wins with registered voters , but loses big with likely voters; Reid wins with registered and loses by a point with likely voters. This demonstrates the alleged enthusiasm gap , which means the Democrats have to accelerate the GOTV efforts. Luckily in Delaware, Chris Coons, called by Glenn Beck a "Marxist" , is whipping Cathleen O'Donnell in both likely and registered. But the registered margin is a whopping 25%.

The great roll-out for the Pledge to America didn't really hit it. John Boehner wanted to assure everyone that Republicans are the same and that privatizing Social Security is not off the table. Please recall when W campaigned around the country on privatizing of social security. It was a mega flop. Pat Toomey in Pennslyvania has highlighted this as his major policy initiative. And he even admitted it would add significantly to the deficit. After recent events, who in their right mind would actually support this? I'm glad we are all going to be compis mentis when we are older and can finagle the ins and outs of the stock market like most people were able to do in prime health during 2008. And since they're going to raise retirement age to 70, it's going to be great for stock traders dealing with millions of people who have dementia. But it's all in the name of family.

Over 70% of Americans believe this country is in decline. It is if we don't make some fundamental changes. But I heard an unusual diagnosis of our fate from Niall Fergusson, the British neocon who spoke at Aspen warning that America might lose its empire. He repeated his talk in Australia. He said that the United States was in threat of losing its empire and global status because of our national debt. He said that the debt issue will force America to spend less on national security--remember we spend more than planet earth combined so I think we have alot of wiggle room--and lack the courage to rein in Social Security and Medicare costs. In other words, if we take care of Americans first, then we won't be the surrogate British empire Niall and the Bush neocons wanted. It should be noted that it was only during the George W. reign that any American policy-maker ever referred to the United States as an empire. The Left has used this terminology for years but American officials only did with W. In fact, Bush officials bragged to the British that the invasion of Iraq was "our imperial moment." Niall also said that all empires collapse when they withdraw from Mesopotamia. Good, here's hoping.

Newt Gingrich has taken up the anti-colonial issue by citing Dinesh D'Souza's recent thesis that Barack Obama is acting out his father's "Kenyan anti-colonial" mentality. D'Sousa's new book will be coming to my bookshelf soon and I already can anticipate the argument. But, before pre-judging Dinesh, I should like to mention that Glenn Beck's beloved Founding Fathers were notoriously anti-colonial and even modern Presidents such as Ike and JFK were anti-colonial. Does anyone remember the US sided with Egypt over the Suez Canal? All the stink that caused in Britain. But both Newt and Dinesh are imperialists--Christian imperialists. In other words, anti-American.

An American vet has been arrested in Chicago for plotting to kill Barack Obama and provoking a war between Christians and Muslims to hasten the apocalypse. This is the second plot in a week that has been disrupted. No wonder people believe America is in decline with this nonsense. Another man was arrested in Texas for attacking police officers because he was a member of the Texas Republican Movement, which advocates secession.

Not to worry, this stuff is getting mainstreamed. The Teabagger, Republican nominee for Senator in Alaska is pro-militia and considered a friend of that white nationalist movement. I guess that's one step ahead of his friend Todd Palin, who is a member of the Alaska Independence Movement. Both men should be happy about the GOP's embrace of the obscure 10th amendment.

Certain strange things have been appearing on my radar, which raises some interesting questions about some of the GOP candidates. The Washington Post found out that Pat Toomey's stint as a business partner in China was related to his relationship with Enron board holder Mr. Chen. On another front, you have the strange occurrence of Mark Kirk, GOP senate candidate in Illinois, bragging about telling the Chinese not to believe the Obama Administration of our country's assets. You have Dubai-based Newscorp, the owner of Fox News, being a business partner with North Korea and China, developing computer games. And you have private e-mails I get from conservatives praising China as a model and Vietnam.

In the old days of the Cold War, conservatives believed the turning moment was Whittacker Chambers outing Alger Hiss. But times have changed and , with the exception of the State Department couple who spied for Cuba, the most recent espionage problems have come from an asssortment of conservatives, members of Opus Dei, pro-Israeli Americans and the strange pro-lifer who was behind the anthrax mailings. Don't be surprised over the next few years if you see the conservative movement have a major espionage problem of its own on a scale of the Cold War exposes in the 1950s. Not a sermon, just a thought.

If Iran is an existential threat to Israel, why is Goldman Sachs-Israel opening an office in Tehran? I hate to disappoint everyone but I believe that the Iranian nuclear program has been disabled by "outside actions" and may be permanently out of action. I am probably the only one on planet Earth that believes this. But there were technological advances made by the United States over the last few years, which indicate things of this nature can be done. I submit they were.

Barack Obama spoke to the United Nations yesterday on a new development policy, which makes too much sense to repeat in a post that documents madness.

And, oh yes, documents were released today that demonstrate the Bush Administration intended to invade Iraq prior to 9-11 and Bush officials within 24 hours of 9-11 advocated an attack on Iraq--even though we learned yesterday that an Iraqi ambassador informed the administration that while Saddam was delighted, he had nothing to do with it.

Liz Cheney and Torture Advocate Marc Thiessen slams the quote of President Obama in Bob Woodward's new book that "America withstood a terrorist attack and was stronger for it." Liz went all Cheney on this quote and Marc Thiessen asks, "Do you feel more secure now?" Yes, Marc, I do.

Let The Looting Begin!

The GOP House Republicans have released their Pledge to America, mimicking the Contract with America in 1994. From a rhetorical point of view, it is good political propaganda. From a policy point of view, it is ruinous to both our national well-being and future. The preamble to the Pledge is an amalgem of Tea Party sloganeering about the oppression of the government and the words of the Declaration of Independence and a commitment to the "original intent" of the Constitution. There are some fantastic flourishes like the elevation of the 10th Amendment as a fundamental principle and a nod to states' rights. There is absolutely no self-reflection or historical recognition of how we got to the present place in time. The Pledge is long on lamenting the national debt, the deficit and the chronic joblessness in the country, but very short on any concrete solutions to anything other than a rigorous pledge to allocated all resources necessary to our men and women in uniform, even though Senate Republicans blocked the first Defense Appropriations Bill in 48 years.

The House Republicans pledge to greater transparency in their operations, a smaller, more accoountable government,fiscal responsibility, and of course Lower Taxes and protecting life except those who are actually living. Eric Ericksson over at Red State, a conservative website, even pronounced the ideas in the Pledge as "drek."

Republicans will permanently stop all "job-killing taxes" in the name of families keeping their hard-earned money and small businesses will have the stability to invest in creating new jobs. Note to reader: Senate Republicans are still blocking the small business bill in the Senate which would lower small business taxes and allow for greater credit to small businesses. Republicans are running on the issue that if the Bush tax-cuts expire as mandated by law, then there will be Obama tax hikes for everyone. They maintain their support for tax cuts for the very wealthy. And they pledge to repeal the entire Healthcare Bill and substitute their own--which was proposed during the healthcare debate and would only extend insurance to 3 million additional Americans and create a deeper deficit.

The Republicans say they will end all bailouts permanently, canceling TARP and reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They will cut Congress' budget, impose a hiring freeze on non-security federal employees, and review every current government program to eliminate wasteful and duplicative programs. They also plan to read the Constitution before every bill to see whether it's constitutional.

Of course,Republicans will provide additional resources and authority and support to the military, including full funding to missile defense. Not only that but they will not "import terrorists to America" and keep Gitmo open because terrorists should not be tried in our courts and put in our prisons. It should be noted that the conviction rates for terrorists in our criminal courts far outweigh convictions in so-called military commissions. Oh and yes, they will put more resources to protect our borders from illegal immigrants.

To give assurances to business (here only small businessesare mentioned in the text), there will prevent all tax increases and new regulations so as to protect investors. And they will stop all stimulus spending and return what remains to the treasury. This is all in the name of being pro-family. The government budget would be brought to pre-stimulus levels and a hard cap would be put in discretionary spending. They would privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their language on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is murky at best--ensuring them for today's senior and future generations. However, they insist on reviewing them regularly and preventing the expansion of unfunded liabilities. This is a sugar-coated way of incporating some of The Blueprint for the Future language ,which would have privatized Social Security for future generations.

A large part of the Pledge is on repealing the entire Healthcare Reform. Most of what they write about it is false but it sounds so friendly by strengthening your relationship with your doctor. In other words, all the rhetoric used against Healthcare Reform in the Tea Party town meetings last year is here , dressed up in politicalese. But no death panels. I guess they thought that was going too far. They also repeat the myth that 16,500 new IRS auditors will be needed to collect new taxes from the healthcare reform. It also goes on to maintain that Medicare savings but cracking down on fraud is actually a cut in benefits. We have been down this road before. Perhaps, this was written in support of the GOP candidate for Florida Governor, who was forced to pay the largest fine in American history because of Medicare fraud.

The clause for fully funding Missile Defense is because of the threat posed to the United States by Iranian ballistic missiles.

Now one has to give credit to the authors, who have lobbies for AIG, Enron, Pfizer and other coporations, for avoiding direct mention of the tremendous economic benefits corporations will receive from this Pledge. Also, President Obama is right when the GOP is banking on the American people having amnesia how this mess got started. And the GOP bet may be right. Remember all Republicans beginning with Reagan have promised smaller government and all Republican Presidents have vastly expanded Federal Government. George W. Bush went a couple of steps further--expand the executive branch larger than FDR and privatize it also. So you always must keep expanding defense spending for instance because half a trillion dollars goes to private companies. So it's the one solid profit center in the federal government.

As to concerns about the national debt. Ezra Klein at the Washington Post has already laid out the problems with the Pledge. The tax-cuts for the rich already represent another $3.9 trillion in additional debt and repeal of the Healthcare Reform will add several trillion more to the debt. And let's add their Defense increases with the fully funded Missile Defense and tag on another $2 trillion. Any serious attempt at a reduction in the national debt would have to come from virtually gutting the social safety net and all government services. That is why Republicans candidates this year are openly campaigning on privatizing social security, calling it a Ponzi scheme.

As I have explained over several posts, Social Security with its .09% administrative overhead is probably the most successful social benefit program in the world and is in fine shape. But the real game is to get Social Security funds into Wall Street, where the trading fees will add billions more to the trading firms and permanently preclude any return to the government run system.

As I wrote on the Blueprint for America, the GOP ideal of America is for it to be an Aircraft Carrier with no governmental benefits for any of its citizens. Remember when we called the Soviet Union "a Third World Country with nuclear weapons". That's the ideal but with an oligarchic class owning the rest of the country. You, dear citizen and patriot (we always have to throw that it in), will be able to worship your God freely and educate your child that ancient kids played with dinosaurs.

The Pledge quotes the current Governor of Virginia, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Thomas Jefferson (Boy has he been used this year) and JFK. The favorite JFK quote is about the horrible effects of a high tax rate on the country's development. He was commenting on the 91% rate under Ike. The GOP argument, which has been refuted time and time again, is that cutting taxes increases government revenues. There is an objective point where this isn't true, and we past that almost ten years ago.

So with all this pledge to fiscal responsibility, if you tally up the numbers,the Pledge to America guarantees that if fully implemented that the GOP promises you to equal the exact debt of $11 trillion left by George W. Bush. In effect, despite all the trickle-down, small government baloney, the GOP promises you they will double the current national debt with their plan. But they have said it openly and I fear people will buy this stuff. It's so nice to have this new thinking applied in a Depression. And given their pledges, no American except the defense industry, the health insurance business, Wall Street traders will receive a single benefit. But it's only if you teased out what is really said that this becomes evident.

As Ronald Reagan said,"I didn't leave the party, the Party left me". This goes for me with Republicans. I do agree with the Pledge that America is an idea. That's why I voted for Barack Obama to preserve that idea. We came just a hair's breadth from seeing it disappear with the last crowd. Apparently, Republicans didn't learn anything. Andrew Bacevitch wrote that he came to the conclusion midway in the Cold War that America would win. He said it was because the Soviet Union was ideological, America was pragmatic. What we saw in the Bush-Cheney years was pure ideology and it continues with the Tan Man, and Newt's little friend Cantor.

Save the Pledge because I believe it will be the National Platform of the Republicans in 2012.

Parallel to this Pledge, is Rep. Issa's long laundry list of investigations he wants to conduct in the Obama Administration, which are divided into all areas of government policy. Despite pledges to cut Congress' budget, Issa has already planned on hiring several dozen lawyers to conduct these investigations.

As Bernie Sanders said, the Republicans plan to roll back everything positive that the Obama Administration has done.