You Don't Know What's Happening Here,Do You, Pastor Jones?

First up, the great International Quran Burning Day in Gainesville, Florida. I have yet read a piece that this whole stunt by one Pastor Jones is about erasing the tax liens on his properties. The Church also houses his for-profit enterprise and his congregation--all 40 of them--serve as "volunteer" labor for his business. Pastor Jones and his wife own real estate in the surrounding areas estimated to be worth $5 million and some of it is in arrears for taxes. It seems the whole Quran Burning event is a scam to raise money to pay off his taxes.

This is not so dissimilar to the Westboro Baptist Church scam, which generates protests at military funerals and sometimes anti-semitic and homophobic demonstrations. This so-called church basically consists of one extended family and a few followers. The whole purpose of their obnoxious stunts is to provoke physical attacks on their members so that the Church can file suit and collect damages. This is the whole raison d'etre of their existence and so far they have been very successful at it.

Our third scam artists are The Quitter from Wasilla and Glenn Beck, who are exploiting 9/11 in Anchorage, Alaska at an event where they are charging $250.00 for an entrance fee. Talk about Chutzpah since Glenn Beck frequently proclaimed how sick he was of hearing from 9/11 families. I guess he was repulsed because they didn't charge money.

During Labor Day weekend, I got to drive a brand-new Chrysler Minivan over highways refurbished under the Recovery Act. So, I was thrilled to hear President Obama come firing out at the Milwaukee Labor Day celebration and announce plans for a $50 billion infrastructure program. This was followed by a strong economic speech in Cleveland, where he drew the lines between his recovery policy and the Republican non-plan.

So where are we with the Midterms? I listened to Larry Plotkin on NPR on Labor Day claim the Republicans will take back the House by 22-25 votes and have a chance at taking the Senate. Charlie Cook doubled down on his prediction of Republicans taking back the House and suggested Democrats could lose the Senate. Charlie Cook today then criticized Organzing for America, suggesting they would not have any influence on this year's election. Another polling firm reneged on its prediction that the Republicans would retake the House yesterday. Then, the Gallup poll came out and the great 10 pt. generic lead by Republicans vanished and it was again tied.

President Obama's approval rating continued to tank. Oh wait, it remains the same as it has been for the past 15 months--pretty consistent given the situation of the economy. But most surprising is his approval rating among those who told pollsters they were not going to vote--75% approval. And there lies the Democratic strategy.

David Plouffe addressed the OFA members via video-conferencing about his plans for the mid-terms. His view is that the mid-terms will be decided by a series of races where the vote margins will be below 1,000 and percentages like 51-49%. OFA has been ramping up their efforts with the view of opening several offices in key states and nation-wide contacting 15 million Democrats or leaning Democrats, who are ambivalent about voting this year. Democrats hold a 4-3 advantage over Republicans and just moving a percentage of these ambivalent voters would affect the results of elections determined by low turnouts.

In addition to this, the AFL-CIO and other unions are gearing up for a massive voter turnout effort. To galvanize their memberships, the unions, civil rights groups and environmental groups are marching on Washington October 2 for a public display of strength.

Chris Van Hollen, who is handling the Democratic House races, "leaked" several internal polls that directly contradicted the media's narrative about a change in the House. He choose races where the incumbent Democrat was said to be threatened. In each it showed the Democrat in the lead.

That's not to say that Republicans right now don't have the intensity factor on their side, but their candidates are frightening and Democrats are exploiting that with independents. Gov. Fast Eddie Rendell of Pennsylvania has come right out and told independents that the Republicans this year are "wack-o's." David Axelrod echoed this sentiment saying the Republicans this year are farther right than George W. Bush. But ,Democrats face one astonishing fact--58% of the electorate believe the Republicans will have ideas different from George W. Pete Sessions and John Boehner have made it clear they are doubling down on the Bush economic policies despite the havoc they sowed. This is where President Obama in his campaign mode is useful to the Democrats by drawing a sharp contrast between his vision of the future and the Republican plans.

The line on the tax issue has been drawn in the sand--Obama backing middle-class tax cuts and Republicans insisting on maintaining tax cuts for the upper income brackets. There is alot of nonsense within the Beltway about the legislative fights ahead. Since Obama made his position clear yesterday, Huffington Post and other blogs are asking when Obama will cave on this issue, citing his avoidance of saying he would veto such tax breaks. It's amazing how the well-paid, high-income tax bracket media wishes to maintain this tax break, despite buckets of evidence that it would only increase our deficit by billions--actually hundreds of billions--and that it would do absolutely nothing to stimulate the economy. The same occurred during the Healthcare debate when the media cried over provisions affecting people earning over $250,000 a year.

President Obama is also offering about $300 billion in tax breaks to corporations, particularly small businesses, once the base of the Republican Party. His offer to write-off R&D costs over the next two years is being met with phony counter offers by the GOP. There is a reason for this cat-and-mouse. If you examine President Obama's recent tax offers, you'll realize he just co-opted the best items in his 2012 rival's plans--Mitt Romney. Just as he did with parts of the healthcare reform. He's practicing his rope-a-dope two years early. (A P.S. it's doubtful that the corporate tax breaks will actually stimulate the economy.)

How this plays out in the next few weeks is anyone's guess but at least Obama will place the Democrats on the side of working and middle-class families and Republicans with the wealthy. This is almost a caricature of past political rhetoric but for the first time in a long while it is actually true. Even Democrats charging that Republicans want to eliminate Social Security is actually true for the first time in my memory.

Meanwhile Haley Barbour, the GOP King of GOTV, is heading that operation out of the Governors' Association since the RNC is dead. Barbour is also organizing the GOP to campaign solely on the economy and not get distracted by social issues. The Republicans for the first time in a while are waging a 50 state campaign, mirroring the past efforts by former DNC chairperson Howard Dean. However, even Haley knows he has some ringers. He's already pulled the plug on the GOP candidate for Governor in Colorado because he's lied about being an undercover FBI agent and other exaggerations on his resume.

The marriage of the teabaggers with the GOP is getting rocky. The teabagger win in Alaska by Rick Miller has propelled Democrat Scott MacAdams into contention and with a real shot at winning the election. I listened to Scott MacAdams on a podcast last night and realized if the teabaggers were actually populist and not an ideological campaign he would have been their nominee. Rick Miller has claimed various social programs are unconstitutional and he has vowed to ween Alaska off the federal tit. But his background is very suspicious. He is a graduate of Yale Law School and has never held a job over 6 months, progressing from position to the next. It's clear that he doesn't believe a word he says but is a pure opportunist. It was Todd Palin who got him the nomination, not Sarah, to get even with the Murkowski family.

Meanwhile, the Mayor of Sitka simply lucked into the Democratic nomination because he was asked to fill in at a candidate training seminar and asked to make a fake stump speech for the Senate. The attendees of the Alaska Democratic convention liked it so much they made him the candidate. Now ActBlue has taken up his cause and he is raising competitive money from the grassroots even though the national Democratic Party has neglected him. Even Rasmussen has him polling less than 5 points behind Miller.

Next up is Delaware where the teabaggers hope to bump off veteran Mike Castle, who has never lost an election. Christine O' Donnell has the Tea Party support and buckets of money. But she is plagued by her history of personal insolvency and campaign funding hijinx. She probably is the first Senate candidate in American history whose major issue is masturbation. She hopes to ban it. As the ads hit the airwaves, the nasty exchanges between the two Repubican camps have given Jeffrey Coons, the Democratic nominee, the opening he can exploit. He's hit the airwaves with a positive ad, highlighting his role in cutting budgets and acting in a bipartisan manner. Right now Castle has a huge lead over Coons. But if the teabagger wins , it's Coons in a walkaway.

One of the most important developments is a wholesale defection of Republican businessmen, including Reagan's RNC chairman Frank Fahrenkopf, to Harry Reid. Sharron Angle has scared the daylights out of these men and they have gone very public in their support of Reid.

Various analysts still see Democrats holding between 51-53 seats in the Senate. Nate the Great has bumped his odds of a GOP takeover to 25% but he admits this is caused by fooling around with his methodology and not because of anything real. The Democrats are at a disadvantage because they are allowing North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas go by the boards. This means they have less margin of error. Somehow, I do think they will turn a few Republican seats. I'm still at 54-55.

Republicans still look like they will pick up some state houses. Nate the Great says 30 but others peg it at 27. The Texas gubernatorial contest is very close, with White actually leading in some polls. Alex Sink looks in a strong position to take Florida. And we are all praying Governor Jerry Brown will rise from the dead and start battling Meg Whitman in earnest. After spending over $100 million, she's just a couple points ahead in some polls and behind in others. The Republican Midwest sweep looks less certain than when I wrote about it. Minnesota and Wisconsin, which looked automatic, have gotten shaky with the GOP candidates acting in bizarre ways.

MEANWHILE--The 9th Circuit Court is not demanding the State of California actually defend Prop 8. Arnold and Jerry Brown both refused to support it in court. This leaves an interesting question whether the religious proponents can have the right to defend it. It's highly questionable. I think we may expect a ruling sooner than previously advertised.

Elizabeth Warren again visited the White House this morning. She's already cancelled her teaching position at Harvard this fall. Obama would only say she was advising him and Geitner on how to establish the Consumer Agency. An announcement soon would be a big boost for progressives prior to the elections.

There is also some discussion that the DADT repeal will be appended to the Defense Appropriations Bill. Again another point on the progressive agenda.

I am expecting a hurricane of books shortly. We have a new Mary Oliver, Tom McQuane, Gary Snyder, V.S. Naipul, John Le Carre and more all-stars to pick me up.