Nate the Great Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com has finally delivered his House predictions. He puts the odds at 2 out of 3 for Republicans to take back the House. Feeding all the polls, money factors and other odds and ends in his kitchen sink, he comes out with probable gains of between 45 and 50 seats, slightly less than 1994. But remember this is the first time out for his House picks.
I have read two more studies of computer runs that came out identical --the GOP taking the House by one seat. That would be a 40 seat pick-up. Then with about a dozen ethics cases breaking against the GOP, within moments everything would be up in the air again.
Meanwhile, Byron York writing in the Washington Examiner quotes several off-the-record Republicans skeptical about the tidal wave election. Only Vin Weber came forth to be quoted directly. The view was that the intensity gap would start to close as traditional Democratic base groups like Labor ramp up their efforts and Democrats will come back to the fold. Weber also points out the managerial mess at the RNC and the lack of organizational structure in the Republican efforts. Robert Craemer also wrote an article pointing out the same thing that the Democrats at this point have huge cash advantages and better organization. Like Weber, he pointed to the difference with 1994 in that Republicans have a worse approval rating by far than the Democrats and that all their allies like Big Business, the Health Insurance industry, and Banks have far worse approval ratings than even the GOP.
Meanwhile on the campaign trail, Democrats are showing they are holding their own in Swing States. Eastman in Ohio now has edged Rob Portman in the Ohio Senate race; Boxer again leads Fiorina, Marco Rubio only holds a few point lead over Crist, and Democrats are out in front in House seats, which everyone has predicted as goners. In my opinion, there seems to be some solidifying in the Democratic position. However, on the overall House front, it's hard to tell.
Always remember Nate the Great's predictions are his first cut and he keeps updating the model as we come closer to the election. On another front, several pollsters are pointing to the GOP taking 27 state houses and not 30 as Nate predicts.
In any event, aren't you glad Obama got most of the big stuff out of the way first? People criticized him for doing too much too soon but it showed he understood that the honeymoon would be quick as every President knows.
The big news from today's press conference was that President Obama didn't wear his wedding ring. Really. The greatest question was "Do you think you've been a failure because you have captured or killed Bin Laden yet?" And you wonder why Republicans might have a chance? Or maybe that's Obama's October Surprise--wouldn't that be great.
Christine O'Donnell, the teabagger candidate for the Senate in Delaware, went really over the line. She has aired a commercial suggesting that Mike Castle is cheating on his wife with a man. This has been a constant theme for her in the last week suggesting Mike Castle is gay. The producer of the ad said that "We have no proof of this but we thought we would put it out there anyway." Stay classy--that's the motto of the New Conservatives. While Castle claims his own polls show he will win but today hinted he might run as an independent. (FYI--I know many of the GOP who really are gay, many who lead the conservative movement--but I have never heard this about former Governor Castle. Then, of course, so what?)
Lisa Murkowski is trying to get back into the Alaska race and is in negotiations with the Libertarian Party. How this would play out is anyone's guess.
In New Hampshire , the teabagger candidate is gaining ground on the Attorney-General Ayottte and if victorious David Hodes, the Democrat, has a real chance at picking up the seat.
While the President lectured us again about the right of Muslims to worship freely, Newt Gingrich and Calissa have released a new DVD "A Nation At Risk", which argues that the United States is in danger from Muslims because they want world conquest.
It's clear it's no coincidence that Pastor Jones was a high school classmate of Rush Limbaugh. The last we heard from Pastor Jones he gave the Imam of the Park 51 project two hours to agree to move the Islamic Center or he would burn the Quran. The Westboro Baptist Church is hurt that no one saw them burn Qurans in 2008. So now they are going to burn both Qurans and the American Flag. Kudos to the London Telegraph for being the only newspaper to have printed how Pastor Jones uses his congregation as 'slave" labor to support his for-profit business.
A correction from yesterday's post. Some of Obama's tax breaks will be beneficial, particularly the ability of business to write off 100% on capital equipment in one year. I learned this from Ed Schultz, who has several small businesses of his own. And yes David Axelrod had to clarify that President Obama would veto a bill with tax breaks for the richest. Senator Voinovich said that he would back Obama's small business bill, making it 60 Senators. So it should hit the floor next week sometime.
In his press conference, President Obama came very close again to naming Elizabeth Warren as the first head of the Consumer Protection Agency. Just get it over with!
One member of the press asked why with Financial Reform passed two months ago, nothing has changed? One third of the stimulus package hasn't been spent yet so why haven't we seen the final results? Jesus Louise, these guys are amazing.
President Obama is thinking of appointing an envoy for manufacturing. I guess you can't call it a Czar or that would make Glenn Beck's blackboard. President Obama is the biggest advocate for small business since Ronald Reagan and like Ronald Reagan is one of the few Presidents actually to talk about American manufacturing. A point I told a right-winger who called me today to ask,"Are you sorry you voted for Obama yet?" When I pointed these two things out--there were crickets.
The Republicans did win a big victory yesterday. A Federal judge ruled Don't Ask Don't Tell unconstitutional. The suit was brought by the Log Cabin Republicans, whose members include many gay veterans. Think about it -- the leading conservative lawyer wins the Prop 8 case with a Republican judge ruling; Gay marriage is upheld by a Republican Supreme Court in Iowa. And the DOMA act is ruled unconstitutional by another Republican judge. This all might be an aftermath of the dominance of the conservative movement by the gays in the 1980s. What will the Focus on Your Family crowd think?
The AFL-CIO this week warned Sarah Palin that if she kept up her slander of the labor movement she would join the ranks of people like Joe McCarthy. But she already has. Her adviser is Greta Van Cistern's husband, a leader in the scientology movement, and Greta herself, is the daugher of---get ready for this--Joe McCarthy's campaign manager. Greta should fly down to Nevada to get Sharron Angle to write out her list of the domestic enemies in Congress, something Michelle Bachmann also claims. Then her destiny would be complete.
The Arnold is getting a little snarky. He tweeted while flying to Asia from Alaska he couldn't see Russia from the airport.
Tomorrow Sister Sarah and Glenn Beck will host a boozefest celebrating 9-11. Glenn Beck has already been shamed by the news media to donate his speaking fee to charity. No word from the Sister. Some wag suggested that the two were celebrating the September 11, 1973 overthrow of Salvador Allende by Pinochet.
Liz Cheney is running attack ads against Admiral Sestak in Pennsylvania, claiming he was weak on Israel. Whatever that means these days. Her candidate Club for Greed candidate Pat Toomey came out today against the Hate Bill legislation,saying you can't legislate how people think. But you can legislate on how people are physically tortured and killed because of their race or gender preference.
I actually had a conversation today with a conservative Republican who really wants to repeal the 14th Amendment. He also once argued that it was a shame slavery was outlawed because it ruined the South's economy. Am reading now White Cargo: the Forgotten History of Britain's White Slaves in America by Dan Jordan and Michael Walsh. To my horror my fantasy retirement land--Popham Beach in Maine--was the site of a Fort to house White Slaves on the Kennebec River in the 17th century. Maybe the counter to the Christian Revisionist History of the American Revolution is to consider our rebellion against Britain as the first White Slave Revolt.
President Obama's plan for a $50 billion multi-year project to rehabilitate and modernize America's infrastructure is almost two decades overdue. The last time a President addressed this issue was Dwight David Eisenhower with the creation of the interstate highway system, which created a national market for the first time in our history. So I guess it's appropriate that David Eisenhower is about to print a memoir of the last decade of Ike's life at Gettysburg. David had won the pulitzer for his account of his grandfather in war-time. The Eisenhowers, including David and his wife Julie Nixon, backed Barack Obama's bid for the White House. Maybe he felt compelled to re-insert his grandfather into the national debate. After all it was during Ike that the John Birch Society was created, and it was under Obama that the conservative movemment welcomed it back into the fold after decades of exile.
Showing posts with label Pastor Jones. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pastor Jones. Show all posts
Friday, September 10, 2010
Thursday, September 9, 2010
You Don't Know What's Happening Here,Do You, Pastor Jones?
First up, the great International Quran Burning Day in Gainesville, Florida. I have yet read a piece that this whole stunt by one Pastor Jones is about erasing the tax liens on his properties. The Church also houses his for-profit enterprise and his congregation--all 40 of them--serve as "volunteer" labor for his business. Pastor Jones and his wife own real estate in the surrounding areas estimated to be worth $5 million and some of it is in arrears for taxes. It seems the whole Quran Burning event is a scam to raise money to pay off his taxes.
This is not so dissimilar to the Westboro Baptist Church scam, which generates protests at military funerals and sometimes anti-semitic and homophobic demonstrations. This so-called church basically consists of one extended family and a few followers. The whole purpose of their obnoxious stunts is to provoke physical attacks on their members so that the Church can file suit and collect damages. This is the whole raison d'etre of their existence and so far they have been very successful at it.
Our third scam artists are The Quitter from Wasilla and Glenn Beck, who are exploiting 9/11 in Anchorage, Alaska at an event where they are charging $250.00 for an entrance fee. Talk about Chutzpah since Glenn Beck frequently proclaimed how sick he was of hearing from 9/11 families. I guess he was repulsed because they didn't charge money.
During Labor Day weekend, I got to drive a brand-new Chrysler Minivan over highways refurbished under the Recovery Act. So, I was thrilled to hear President Obama come firing out at the Milwaukee Labor Day celebration and announce plans for a $50 billion infrastructure program. This was followed by a strong economic speech in Cleveland, where he drew the lines between his recovery policy and the Republican non-plan.
So where are we with the Midterms? I listened to Larry Plotkin on NPR on Labor Day claim the Republicans will take back the House by 22-25 votes and have a chance at taking the Senate. Charlie Cook doubled down on his prediction of Republicans taking back the House and suggested Democrats could lose the Senate. Charlie Cook today then criticized Organzing for America, suggesting they would not have any influence on this year's election. Another polling firm reneged on its prediction that the Republicans would retake the House yesterday. Then, the Gallup poll came out and the great 10 pt. generic lead by Republicans vanished and it was again tied.
President Obama's approval rating continued to tank. Oh wait, it remains the same as it has been for the past 15 months--pretty consistent given the situation of the economy. But most surprising is his approval rating among those who told pollsters they were not going to vote--75% approval. And there lies the Democratic strategy.
David Plouffe addressed the OFA members via video-conferencing about his plans for the mid-terms. His view is that the mid-terms will be decided by a series of races where the vote margins will be below 1,000 and percentages like 51-49%. OFA has been ramping up their efforts with the view of opening several offices in key states and nation-wide contacting 15 million Democrats or leaning Democrats, who are ambivalent about voting this year. Democrats hold a 4-3 advantage over Republicans and just moving a percentage of these ambivalent voters would affect the results of elections determined by low turnouts.
In addition to this, the AFL-CIO and other unions are gearing up for a massive voter turnout effort. To galvanize their memberships, the unions, civil rights groups and environmental groups are marching on Washington October 2 for a public display of strength.
Chris Van Hollen, who is handling the Democratic House races, "leaked" several internal polls that directly contradicted the media's narrative about a change in the House. He choose races where the incumbent Democrat was said to be threatened. In each it showed the Democrat in the lead.
That's not to say that Republicans right now don't have the intensity factor on their side, but their candidates are frightening and Democrats are exploiting that with independents. Gov. Fast Eddie Rendell of Pennsylvania has come right out and told independents that the Republicans this year are "wack-o's." David Axelrod echoed this sentiment saying the Republicans this year are farther right than George W. Bush. But ,Democrats face one astonishing fact--58% of the electorate believe the Republicans will have ideas different from George W. Pete Sessions and John Boehner have made it clear they are doubling down on the Bush economic policies despite the havoc they sowed. This is where President Obama in his campaign mode is useful to the Democrats by drawing a sharp contrast between his vision of the future and the Republican plans.
The line on the tax issue has been drawn in the sand--Obama backing middle-class tax cuts and Republicans insisting on maintaining tax cuts for the upper income brackets. There is alot of nonsense within the Beltway about the legislative fights ahead. Since Obama made his position clear yesterday, Huffington Post and other blogs are asking when Obama will cave on this issue, citing his avoidance of saying he would veto such tax breaks. It's amazing how the well-paid, high-income tax bracket media wishes to maintain this tax break, despite buckets of evidence that it would only increase our deficit by billions--actually hundreds of billions--and that it would do absolutely nothing to stimulate the economy. The same occurred during the Healthcare debate when the media cried over provisions affecting people earning over $250,000 a year.
President Obama is also offering about $300 billion in tax breaks to corporations, particularly small businesses, once the base of the Republican Party. His offer to write-off R&D costs over the next two years is being met with phony counter offers by the GOP. There is a reason for this cat-and-mouse. If you examine President Obama's recent tax offers, you'll realize he just co-opted the best items in his 2012 rival's plans--Mitt Romney. Just as he did with parts of the healthcare reform. He's practicing his rope-a-dope two years early. (A P.S. it's doubtful that the corporate tax breaks will actually stimulate the economy.)
How this plays out in the next few weeks is anyone's guess but at least Obama will place the Democrats on the side of working and middle-class families and Republicans with the wealthy. This is almost a caricature of past political rhetoric but for the first time in a long while it is actually true. Even Democrats charging that Republicans want to eliminate Social Security is actually true for the first time in my memory.
Meanwhile Haley Barbour, the GOP King of GOTV, is heading that operation out of the Governors' Association since the RNC is dead. Barbour is also organizing the GOP to campaign solely on the economy and not get distracted by social issues. The Republicans for the first time in a while are waging a 50 state campaign, mirroring the past efforts by former DNC chairperson Howard Dean. However, even Haley knows he has some ringers. He's already pulled the plug on the GOP candidate for Governor in Colorado because he's lied about being an undercover FBI agent and other exaggerations on his resume.
The marriage of the teabaggers with the GOP is getting rocky. The teabagger win in Alaska by Rick Miller has propelled Democrat Scott MacAdams into contention and with a real shot at winning the election. I listened to Scott MacAdams on a podcast last night and realized if the teabaggers were actually populist and not an ideological campaign he would have been their nominee. Rick Miller has claimed various social programs are unconstitutional and he has vowed to ween Alaska off the federal tit. But his background is very suspicious. He is a graduate of Yale Law School and has never held a job over 6 months, progressing from position to the next. It's clear that he doesn't believe a word he says but is a pure opportunist. It was Todd Palin who got him the nomination, not Sarah, to get even with the Murkowski family.
Meanwhile, the Mayor of Sitka simply lucked into the Democratic nomination because he was asked to fill in at a candidate training seminar and asked to make a fake stump speech for the Senate. The attendees of the Alaska Democratic convention liked it so much they made him the candidate. Now ActBlue has taken up his cause and he is raising competitive money from the grassroots even though the national Democratic Party has neglected him. Even Rasmussen has him polling less than 5 points behind Miller.
Next up is Delaware where the teabaggers hope to bump off veteran Mike Castle, who has never lost an election. Christine O' Donnell has the Tea Party support and buckets of money. But she is plagued by her history of personal insolvency and campaign funding hijinx. She probably is the first Senate candidate in American history whose major issue is masturbation. She hopes to ban it. As the ads hit the airwaves, the nasty exchanges between the two Repubican camps have given Jeffrey Coons, the Democratic nominee, the opening he can exploit. He's hit the airwaves with a positive ad, highlighting his role in cutting budgets and acting in a bipartisan manner. Right now Castle has a huge lead over Coons. But if the teabagger wins , it's Coons in a walkaway.
One of the most important developments is a wholesale defection of Republican businessmen, including Reagan's RNC chairman Frank Fahrenkopf, to Harry Reid. Sharron Angle has scared the daylights out of these men and they have gone very public in their support of Reid.
Various analysts still see Democrats holding between 51-53 seats in the Senate. Nate the Great has bumped his odds of a GOP takeover to 25% but he admits this is caused by fooling around with his methodology and not because of anything real. The Democrats are at a disadvantage because they are allowing North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas go by the boards. This means they have less margin of error. Somehow, I do think they will turn a few Republican seats. I'm still at 54-55.
Republicans still look like they will pick up some state houses. Nate the Great says 30 but others peg it at 27. The Texas gubernatorial contest is very close, with White actually leading in some polls. Alex Sink looks in a strong position to take Florida. And we are all praying Governor Jerry Brown will rise from the dead and start battling Meg Whitman in earnest. After spending over $100 million, she's just a couple points ahead in some polls and behind in others. The Republican Midwest sweep looks less certain than when I wrote about it. Minnesota and Wisconsin, which looked automatic, have gotten shaky with the GOP candidates acting in bizarre ways.
MEANWHILE--The 9th Circuit Court is not demanding the State of California actually defend Prop 8. Arnold and Jerry Brown both refused to support it in court. This leaves an interesting question whether the religious proponents can have the right to defend it. It's highly questionable. I think we may expect a ruling sooner than previously advertised.
Elizabeth Warren again visited the White House this morning. She's already cancelled her teaching position at Harvard this fall. Obama would only say she was advising him and Geitner on how to establish the Consumer Agency. An announcement soon would be a big boost for progressives prior to the elections.
There is also some discussion that the DADT repeal will be appended to the Defense Appropriations Bill. Again another point on the progressive agenda.
I am expecting a hurricane of books shortly. We have a new Mary Oliver, Tom McQuane, Gary Snyder, V.S. Naipul, John Le Carre and more all-stars to pick me up.
This is not so dissimilar to the Westboro Baptist Church scam, which generates protests at military funerals and sometimes anti-semitic and homophobic demonstrations. This so-called church basically consists of one extended family and a few followers. The whole purpose of their obnoxious stunts is to provoke physical attacks on their members so that the Church can file suit and collect damages. This is the whole raison d'etre of their existence and so far they have been very successful at it.
Our third scam artists are The Quitter from Wasilla and Glenn Beck, who are exploiting 9/11 in Anchorage, Alaska at an event where they are charging $250.00 for an entrance fee. Talk about Chutzpah since Glenn Beck frequently proclaimed how sick he was of hearing from 9/11 families. I guess he was repulsed because they didn't charge money.
During Labor Day weekend, I got to drive a brand-new Chrysler Minivan over highways refurbished under the Recovery Act. So, I was thrilled to hear President Obama come firing out at the Milwaukee Labor Day celebration and announce plans for a $50 billion infrastructure program. This was followed by a strong economic speech in Cleveland, where he drew the lines between his recovery policy and the Republican non-plan.
So where are we with the Midterms? I listened to Larry Plotkin on NPR on Labor Day claim the Republicans will take back the House by 22-25 votes and have a chance at taking the Senate. Charlie Cook doubled down on his prediction of Republicans taking back the House and suggested Democrats could lose the Senate. Charlie Cook today then criticized Organzing for America, suggesting they would not have any influence on this year's election. Another polling firm reneged on its prediction that the Republicans would retake the House yesterday. Then, the Gallup poll came out and the great 10 pt. generic lead by Republicans vanished and it was again tied.
President Obama's approval rating continued to tank. Oh wait, it remains the same as it has been for the past 15 months--pretty consistent given the situation of the economy. But most surprising is his approval rating among those who told pollsters they were not going to vote--75% approval. And there lies the Democratic strategy.
David Plouffe addressed the OFA members via video-conferencing about his plans for the mid-terms. His view is that the mid-terms will be decided by a series of races where the vote margins will be below 1,000 and percentages like 51-49%. OFA has been ramping up their efforts with the view of opening several offices in key states and nation-wide contacting 15 million Democrats or leaning Democrats, who are ambivalent about voting this year. Democrats hold a 4-3 advantage over Republicans and just moving a percentage of these ambivalent voters would affect the results of elections determined by low turnouts.
In addition to this, the AFL-CIO and other unions are gearing up for a massive voter turnout effort. To galvanize their memberships, the unions, civil rights groups and environmental groups are marching on Washington October 2 for a public display of strength.
Chris Van Hollen, who is handling the Democratic House races, "leaked" several internal polls that directly contradicted the media's narrative about a change in the House. He choose races where the incumbent Democrat was said to be threatened. In each it showed the Democrat in the lead.
That's not to say that Republicans right now don't have the intensity factor on their side, but their candidates are frightening and Democrats are exploiting that with independents. Gov. Fast Eddie Rendell of Pennsylvania has come right out and told independents that the Republicans this year are "wack-o's." David Axelrod echoed this sentiment saying the Republicans this year are farther right than George W. Bush. But ,Democrats face one astonishing fact--58% of the electorate believe the Republicans will have ideas different from George W. Pete Sessions and John Boehner have made it clear they are doubling down on the Bush economic policies despite the havoc they sowed. This is where President Obama in his campaign mode is useful to the Democrats by drawing a sharp contrast between his vision of the future and the Republican plans.
The line on the tax issue has been drawn in the sand--Obama backing middle-class tax cuts and Republicans insisting on maintaining tax cuts for the upper income brackets. There is alot of nonsense within the Beltway about the legislative fights ahead. Since Obama made his position clear yesterday, Huffington Post and other blogs are asking when Obama will cave on this issue, citing his avoidance of saying he would veto such tax breaks. It's amazing how the well-paid, high-income tax bracket media wishes to maintain this tax break, despite buckets of evidence that it would only increase our deficit by billions--actually hundreds of billions--and that it would do absolutely nothing to stimulate the economy. The same occurred during the Healthcare debate when the media cried over provisions affecting people earning over $250,000 a year.
President Obama is also offering about $300 billion in tax breaks to corporations, particularly small businesses, once the base of the Republican Party. His offer to write-off R&D costs over the next two years is being met with phony counter offers by the GOP. There is a reason for this cat-and-mouse. If you examine President Obama's recent tax offers, you'll realize he just co-opted the best items in his 2012 rival's plans--Mitt Romney. Just as he did with parts of the healthcare reform. He's practicing his rope-a-dope two years early. (A P.S. it's doubtful that the corporate tax breaks will actually stimulate the economy.)
How this plays out in the next few weeks is anyone's guess but at least Obama will place the Democrats on the side of working and middle-class families and Republicans with the wealthy. This is almost a caricature of past political rhetoric but for the first time in a long while it is actually true. Even Democrats charging that Republicans want to eliminate Social Security is actually true for the first time in my memory.
Meanwhile Haley Barbour, the GOP King of GOTV, is heading that operation out of the Governors' Association since the RNC is dead. Barbour is also organizing the GOP to campaign solely on the economy and not get distracted by social issues. The Republicans for the first time in a while are waging a 50 state campaign, mirroring the past efforts by former DNC chairperson Howard Dean. However, even Haley knows he has some ringers. He's already pulled the plug on the GOP candidate for Governor in Colorado because he's lied about being an undercover FBI agent and other exaggerations on his resume.
The marriage of the teabaggers with the GOP is getting rocky. The teabagger win in Alaska by Rick Miller has propelled Democrat Scott MacAdams into contention and with a real shot at winning the election. I listened to Scott MacAdams on a podcast last night and realized if the teabaggers were actually populist and not an ideological campaign he would have been their nominee. Rick Miller has claimed various social programs are unconstitutional and he has vowed to ween Alaska off the federal tit. But his background is very suspicious. He is a graduate of Yale Law School and has never held a job over 6 months, progressing from position to the next. It's clear that he doesn't believe a word he says but is a pure opportunist. It was Todd Palin who got him the nomination, not Sarah, to get even with the Murkowski family.
Meanwhile, the Mayor of Sitka simply lucked into the Democratic nomination because he was asked to fill in at a candidate training seminar and asked to make a fake stump speech for the Senate. The attendees of the Alaska Democratic convention liked it so much they made him the candidate. Now ActBlue has taken up his cause and he is raising competitive money from the grassroots even though the national Democratic Party has neglected him. Even Rasmussen has him polling less than 5 points behind Miller.
Next up is Delaware where the teabaggers hope to bump off veteran Mike Castle, who has never lost an election. Christine O' Donnell has the Tea Party support and buckets of money. But she is plagued by her history of personal insolvency and campaign funding hijinx. She probably is the first Senate candidate in American history whose major issue is masturbation. She hopes to ban it. As the ads hit the airwaves, the nasty exchanges between the two Repubican camps have given Jeffrey Coons, the Democratic nominee, the opening he can exploit. He's hit the airwaves with a positive ad, highlighting his role in cutting budgets and acting in a bipartisan manner. Right now Castle has a huge lead over Coons. But if the teabagger wins , it's Coons in a walkaway.
One of the most important developments is a wholesale defection of Republican businessmen, including Reagan's RNC chairman Frank Fahrenkopf, to Harry Reid. Sharron Angle has scared the daylights out of these men and they have gone very public in their support of Reid.
Various analysts still see Democrats holding between 51-53 seats in the Senate. Nate the Great has bumped his odds of a GOP takeover to 25% but he admits this is caused by fooling around with his methodology and not because of anything real. The Democrats are at a disadvantage because they are allowing North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas go by the boards. This means they have less margin of error. Somehow, I do think they will turn a few Republican seats. I'm still at 54-55.
Republicans still look like they will pick up some state houses. Nate the Great says 30 but others peg it at 27. The Texas gubernatorial contest is very close, with White actually leading in some polls. Alex Sink looks in a strong position to take Florida. And we are all praying Governor Jerry Brown will rise from the dead and start battling Meg Whitman in earnest. After spending over $100 million, she's just a couple points ahead in some polls and behind in others. The Republican Midwest sweep looks less certain than when I wrote about it. Minnesota and Wisconsin, which looked automatic, have gotten shaky with the GOP candidates acting in bizarre ways.
MEANWHILE--The 9th Circuit Court is not demanding the State of California actually defend Prop 8. Arnold and Jerry Brown both refused to support it in court. This leaves an interesting question whether the religious proponents can have the right to defend it. It's highly questionable. I think we may expect a ruling sooner than previously advertised.
Elizabeth Warren again visited the White House this morning. She's already cancelled her teaching position at Harvard this fall. Obama would only say she was advising him and Geitner on how to establish the Consumer Agency. An announcement soon would be a big boost for progressives prior to the elections.
There is also some discussion that the DADT repeal will be appended to the Defense Appropriations Bill. Again another point on the progressive agenda.
I am expecting a hurricane of books shortly. We have a new Mary Oliver, Tom McQuane, Gary Snyder, V.S. Naipul, John Le Carre and more all-stars to pick me up.
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