Harry Reid's Observation

++ Harry Reid has had a habit of making statements that seem to defy the conventional wisdom. He says that if the Democrats hold Iowa they will be fine. Early voting in Iowa does favor Braley but the last poll paints a dreary picture. But this year is strange in that  the registered voter not included in likely voter is turning up as a voter. This is true in Georgia, North Carolina and other early voting states. 

++So where are we? Both parties concede the GOP has won Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. They are in trouble in Kansas and Georgia. They look like they will get Arkansas. So they are not quite there yet in a year that historically says they should win the Senate. 

++ Both parties have told the New York Times that they believe Kay Hagan will win North Carolina and Sheehan will beat Brown in New Hampshire. So it may come down to Iowa,Alaska (which no one wants to predict),and Louisiana and Georgia. Colorado looks shaky despite the Udall camp being optimistic about their ground game.

++The Democrats are at 46 seats. It is not impossible at this late date to see a 50-50 Senate with Joe Biden casting the deciding vote. How rich that would be. 

++Sam Wang has the Senate at 51 Republicans and Nate Silver has it at 52-53 Republicans. Strangely,pollsters are saying the polls are tightening now not widening. So we might go to bed with a 49 Dem,48 GOP Senate without the results from Alaska and run-offs in Georgia and Louisiana.