Readers Push Back On Wang

++Predicting mid-terms is perilous as Nate Silver and Sam Wang have sparred throughout this campaign. How good are the polls? Is the likely voter screen reliable? How underrepresented are minorities,particularly African Americans and Hispanics? Did putting marijuana initiatives and raising the minimum wage on the ballot increase Democratic voter participation?

++Readers disputed Wang's call on Iowa,Alaska and Colorado. Unfortunately, Tom Harkin didn't help matters yesterday when he said Ernst was attractive as Taylor Swift but too extreme for Iowa. While workers on the ground say Braley's campaign is in good shape,I have found it snake-bitten from the start. 

++Readers question Wang's call for Sullivan in Alaska. Everything coming from Alaska says that Begich has an absolutely superb and innovative Get Out The Vote campaign. While I have been interested in his outreach to the native americans who endorsed his campaign, political independents say that his efforts in the cities of Alaska are superior to anything that state has seen. Sullivan has been plagued by the perception he is from Ohio and bankrolled by outsiders like the Koch Brothers and Karl Rove. Ted Cruz appeared at the end of his campaign and was treated like a rock star. I think this one if going to go long. Alaska is heavily Republican but with a very strong independent streak. Unlike others, Begich has run a very strong Alaska-centered campaign and has been quick in responding to out of state ads.

++Other readers think Sam is wrong about Colorado. We forget Colorado is the epicenter of the Christian Right and has an extreme right leaning from the not so distant past. The Democrats failed to paint Cory Gardner as the extremist his voting record shows. Gardner has been successful in painting Udall as a professional politician coming from a family of politicians, albeit one with a fine record of public service. Udall failed to go personal defending this record. But the demographics of the state have changed. That is why Latino Decisions claims not only did the polls underestimate the Hispanic vote but that this vote, despite President Obama's failure to sign Executive Orders on immigration, favor Udall, who was critical of the President on this. The Udall campaign all the way until late last night were optimistic that the Bannock Street project of Get Out The Vote was succeeding. Bennett barely won with a 1.5% vote margin over Buck last time. Democrats are counting on that again.

++I shudder about Iowa. As we saw in the last Republican Iowa Caucus that the state is filled with the Christian Right and on the Republican side moved away from the Midwestern sensible. Remember that the Supreme Court judges who ruled for same sex marriage in the stone age were removed by the Republicans. Also, Governor Branstad is looking to win a big election which could have coattails for Ernst.

++I agree with Sam on Georgia and Louisiana but both look like they are heading to a run-off. Even though my electoral fantasies usually don't play out,it would be fun to have the decision on the Senate linger until next year. But if Sam is wrong on only two races,it could be a 50-50 tie and Joe Biden would cast the deciding vote.

++I hope his fifty-fifty governor's races are off. Scott and LePage are too much for me.