The Crumbling Trump Campaign

++Reuters has a poll out today that shows Trump leads nationally among Republicans 42%,Cruz 32%, and Kasich 20%.

++Hillary Clinton is at 53% to Sanders 43%.

++At 538, Nate Silver says that Trump's winning number is up to 40%--that's the number he has to reach in the remaining primaries whereas before he could win in the low 30s.  Silver thinks this will be problematic for the Donald. Silver says that the poll in any given state has been consistent with the Donald's final result. 

++But the New York polls have Trump at 53% some 20 its above Kasich and Cruz is a distant third. A similar poll from Maryland has Trump leading in the mid-40s.

++A strange item at 538 is the probability for the California Republican primary. In the Polls only category Trump has an overwhelming probability;but with polls plus Cruz wins the primary with a distinct advantage. Is Nate playing us with a horse race analogy since California is supposed to out Donald over the top?

++Lindsey Graham headed to New York this morning to warn New York Republicans against Trump and make the argument that Cruz was the only choice, even though he is more ideological compatible to Kasich. Graham thinks that a Trump nomination would destroy the Republican Party. When the moderator pointed out that Cruz would also lose to the Democrats,Graham said that the Party this year was for an outsider and he had to respect the outsiders. 

++He said if someone other than the remaining candidates got the nomination,the party would explode. He said the GOP would be disenfranchising millions of primary voters. (Although the GOP does that in national elections.)

++Graham and people like Scott Walker are saying the Cruz will be the nominee on the second ballot. Graham hopes he will pick John Kasich as a Vice President.

++Graham thought Paul Ryan should have run but warned against the establishment's new embrace of Ryan as the White Knight to come in and save the party.

++Trump has won 19 primaries and is soon to add the 20th to the list; Cruz has 8 primaries or caucuses. 

++The media has all turned against Trump since Wisconsin and Graham credits the #NoTrump movement for this. Why do I feel the ghost of former Marco Rubio supporters behind all this. 

++Paul Krugman in his Times column warns everyone about Cruz' economics. He says with Trump we don't know. Protectionist policies do not necessarily cost jobs but Cruz trying to bring back the gold standard will. Krugman points out that Cruz is for elimination the withholding tax and therefore Social Security and Medicare payments.  The Cruz agenda is more radical right than any in this or the 20th century. We know his Supreme Court picks.