Sunday, October 23, 2016

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN THE NEXT 16 DAYS?

++We should get a clear picture of the early voting from the Clinton campaign as promised by Rob Mook. That should tell us how late we have to stay up election night.

++In the next few days, polls should give us some indication whether Trump is really cratering. So far it is anecdotal from Republican operatives.  If the new ABC poll is an indication of those coming out this week,we are heading to a Blue Wave.

++I'm terrible about house races so I'm encouraged by the tone of Nancy Pelosi's fund-raising letters, which no longer scream about the Koch brothers and Paul Ryan.

++OHIO--The Democrats may well not need it. But the dailykos reproduced a memo from the Clinton campaign there. What I found interesting was that the Trump campaign is basically county chairpersons since his campaign is divorced from the state party. The Clinton said they were on target to exceed Obama's 2012 mark and they thought they could pick up some marginal Republican voters near Cincinnati. The note also mentioned that early voting turnout in GOP counties was depressed. We should see some new polls this week.

++Florida--I can't help but think having your good surrogates campaign all week in Florida didn't have an effect. Why do I think the New York Times' editorial against Marco Rubio wasn't informed by some perception from the Democratic party. President Obama went out after him in a way that surprised network commentators. Here we need to see how registration matches voting. Early voting should show slight Republican leads but it is a question about how much.

++Nevada--Adelson's paper finally endorsed Trump in Las Vegas. The democratic registration is off the charts in counties which once favored Republicans. The question here as Jan Brewer snidely remarked in Arizona, is whether Hispanics vote. Here is the question whether Joe Heck's distancing himself from Trump will hurt or help his Senate chances.

++Utah--this is one of those fun stories to follow. Will McMullin actually beat Trump. The Clinton campaign has actually opened an office in Utah. If McMullin wins,he would be the first third party candidate ever to get electoral votes.

++Georgia--Republican women have publicly denounced Trump's treatment of women and pledge to get revenge. Will this show up in the polls.

++Arizona--Here it looked like a Clinton campaign tease but Michelle showing up introduced by Barry Goldwater's granddaughter made it seem possible. Again that depends on the Hispanic turnout.

++We should see what the Senate may look like. If the internal polls for Republicans are terrible, then we should see some daylight in what appear to be tight races.

++And let's not forget Alaska. Right now, too close to call and Trump is not well-liked.

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