EARLY VOTING

North Carolina: 58% Clinton, 36% Trump.

Ohio: 58% Clinton, 32% Trump

Does Early Voting Tell Us Anything About Turnout

++Early voting in Iowa and North Carolina show the Democrats taking the early leads as is custom. But the turnout in the country overall should be down because it is a mid-term, but that doesn't mean it will be in highly contested states.

++For instance,the Mark Halperin interview I referred to in the post on Alaska highlighted the high turn out expected by minorities in Georgia, especially in southern Georgia and Atlanta with its suburbs. The African-American vote has grown sizably since 2010. While we saw Michelle Obama campaigning there as well as Bill Clinton, radio broadcasts to the minority community are being done by President Obama. The issue of whether the 50,000 newly registered voters will be allowed to vote is still up in the air. In Louisiana , democratic operatives are buoyant about the turnout in the areas south of New Orleans as well as the southern part of the state. Whether this turns out , we'll see.

++Colorado's all-mail ballots produce voting rates in the 70+% and may rival a presidential turnout because of the ease of voting.

++In states like North Carolina, where Voter ID laws are being enforced,the Moral Monday campaign has energized the younger and minority voters in a way usually meant for presidential elections.

++If the turnout is more than 2010 and slightly less than 2012,then the GOTV campaigns have been a success.

++Maybe it's just Friday night but Sam Wang has his Meta-Margin at R.1%. which means this one could be close.

Before the Onslaught on Attack Ads begin

++Peggy Noonan asked why the Romney campaign has waited so long with their ads. By the time they air them people will want to tear out their eyeballs and stomp on the goo. Pretty close to the quote. 

++Remember people are now voting for President in 31 states as I write. This early voting benefited President Obama last time and you wonder with the Romney campaign in a meltdown what that vote looks like now.

++A conservative e-mailed me with this plea,"With the foreign policy in the shitter, an additional $5 trillion in debt and 20+million out of work, we can't beat him?"

++While we wait for everything from the Obama ads on redistribution of wealth to Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayres, Nate Silver is busy rummaging through his logrithmns and saying that Obama's post-convention bounce is over and that the President may actually do better in the popular vote than the electoral college. I gather this is Silver doing mind games to keep busy. Of course, his word of caution is with the President at the high 70% probability for re-election.

++USAToday/Gallup has Obama at 48 to 46.
     Obama at 48-47 in Colorado
                     50-41 in Pennsylvania
                     50-46 in Virginia
                     51-45 in Wisconsin.

++AP/Gfk poll has Obama leading in likely voters 47 to 46. But the amazing finding is 52 to 37 for Obama in registered voters. Voters have a 56% approval rating for the President.

++Pew found Obama at 51 to 43 in likely voters; and 53 to 43 among registered voters. Also the enthusiasm gap has disappeared.

++In Wisconsin, Marquette found Obama with a 54 to 40 lead over Romney. Tammy Baldwin is at 50 to 41.

++The most amazing rumor of the day came from the Romney camp questioning how long they can hold out in Ohio since the polls are awful for them. Let's see Michigan, Pennsylvania,Wisconsin and then Ohio out of reach. Time to push the panic button.

++CNN/ORC surveyed Michigan and found Obama 52 to 44.