Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Clinton 53%
Trump 44%
Showing posts with label Pew. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pew. Show all posts
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Monday, October 29, 2012
Souls to the Polls
++From his bunker in Princeton, Sam Wang says it is Obama 305 and 233 Romney. Meta-margin is +2.20. Probabilities--Fading--91%, Predictive at 98%. Obama's electoral vote range is 287 to 327.
++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.
++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.
++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.
++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.
++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.
++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39.
++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.
++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.
++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.
++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.
++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.
++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.
++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.
++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.
++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.
++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson.
++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.
++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.
++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.
++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.
++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.
++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.
++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.
++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.
++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.
++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39.
++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.
++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.
++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.
++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.
++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.
++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.
++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.
++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.
++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.
++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson.
++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.
++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.
++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.
++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Before the Onslaught on Attack Ads begin
++Peggy Noonan asked why the Romney campaign has waited so long with their ads. By the time they air them people will want to tear out their eyeballs and stomp on the goo. Pretty close to the quote.
++Remember people are now voting for President in 31 states as I write. This early voting benefited President Obama last time and you wonder with the Romney campaign in a meltdown what that vote looks like now.
++A conservative e-mailed me with this plea,"With the foreign policy in the shitter, an additional $5 trillion in debt and 20+million out of work, we can't beat him?"
++While we wait for everything from the Obama ads on redistribution of wealth to Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayres, Nate Silver is busy rummaging through his logrithmns and saying that Obama's post-convention bounce is over and that the President may actually do better in the popular vote than the electoral college. I gather this is Silver doing mind games to keep busy. Of course, his word of caution is with the President at the high 70% probability for re-election.
++USAToday/Gallup has Obama at 48 to 46.
Obama at 48-47 in Colorado
50-41 in Pennsylvania
50-46 in Virginia
51-45 in Wisconsin.
++AP/Gfk poll has Obama leading in likely voters 47 to 46. But the amazing finding is 52 to 37 for Obama in registered voters. Voters have a 56% approval rating for the President.
++Pew found Obama at 51 to 43 in likely voters; and 53 to 43 among registered voters. Also the enthusiasm gap has disappeared.
++In Wisconsin, Marquette found Obama with a 54 to 40 lead over Romney. Tammy Baldwin is at 50 to 41.
++The most amazing rumor of the day came from the Romney camp questioning how long they can hold out in Ohio since the polls are awful for them. Let's see Michigan, Pennsylvania,Wisconsin and then Ohio out of reach. Time to push the panic button.
++CNN/ORC surveyed Michigan and found Obama 52 to 44.
++Remember people are now voting for President in 31 states as I write. This early voting benefited President Obama last time and you wonder with the Romney campaign in a meltdown what that vote looks like now.
++A conservative e-mailed me with this plea,"With the foreign policy in the shitter, an additional $5 trillion in debt and 20+million out of work, we can't beat him?"
++While we wait for everything from the Obama ads on redistribution of wealth to Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayres, Nate Silver is busy rummaging through his logrithmns and saying that Obama's post-convention bounce is over and that the President may actually do better in the popular vote than the electoral college. I gather this is Silver doing mind games to keep busy. Of course, his word of caution is with the President at the high 70% probability for re-election.
++USAToday/Gallup has Obama at 48 to 46.
Obama at 48-47 in Colorado
50-41 in Pennsylvania
50-46 in Virginia
51-45 in Wisconsin.
++AP/Gfk poll has Obama leading in likely voters 47 to 46. But the amazing finding is 52 to 37 for Obama in registered voters. Voters have a 56% approval rating for the President.
++Pew found Obama at 51 to 43 in likely voters; and 53 to 43 among registered voters. Also the enthusiasm gap has disappeared.
++In Wisconsin, Marquette found Obama with a 54 to 40 lead over Romney. Tammy Baldwin is at 50 to 41.
++The most amazing rumor of the day came from the Romney camp questioning how long they can hold out in Ohio since the polls are awful for them. Let's see Michigan, Pennsylvania,Wisconsin and then Ohio out of reach. Time to push the panic button.
++CNN/ORC surveyed Michigan and found Obama 52 to 44.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
The Romney Bump--Polls Galore
Gallup tracking--48 Romney,43 Obama
Pew 49 Obama, Romney 45. Gender Gap 23
( A month ago--Obama by 12)
Wisconsin: Obama 50 Romney 44
(A Month ago--Obama 53, Romney 39)
PPP: Florida: Obama 50 Romney 45
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 47 Romney 43
(A Month ago Obama was up by 11)
CNN/ORC: Obama 52 Romney 43. Gender Gap 16
Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in North Carolina
Expect many more polls now that pollsters have declared primary season over. Nate Silver warns us that it is best to take the averages of polls at this stage because some polls (Rasmussen) have built-in bias at this stage. He also warns people like me not to make much of the cross-tabs of these early polls because they base their conclusions on too small samples. And lastly he warns us all not to learn too much from American history because the number of presidential elections we have had in the age of polling is still too small. So Caveat Emptor.
Even those polls showing Obama's leads reflect a bump for Romney, largely because the winner of a primary season gets a bounce. Now both campaigns were try to define each other. The GOP want this to be a referendum on the president. The Democrats want this to be an election of two dramatically opposed visions of a democratic society.
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