Goodnight Vienna*

*belated Happy Birthday to Ringo.

A fun political video is at www.FightTheRight.com , apparently made by the Democratic Governors' Association for the netroots conference in Las Vegas.

Andrew Breitbart claims he is "public enemy number 1 of the Democratic Party, the progressive movement and the Obama Administration" for his journalist successes. I guess this video and the whole ACORN scam. I didn't know he had been an assistant to Drudge and says that he was addicted to crack cocaine and been in rehab. Maybe he met Lindsey Lohan there. ( Could someone tell me what Lindsey Lohan ever did?) I guess he wants to be the Drudge of the YouTube age.

President Obama gave an interview to ABC and said that his Administration had erred and jumped the gun because of the media. His explanation as usual made alot of sense but doesn't end the bad taste left by this episode.

And speaking of bad taste, Rep. King , the Christianist from Iowa, wants to investigate how Shirley Sherrod was hired by the Ag Department in the first place. So put that on your list of investigations for next year. Darrell Issa wants to investigate the Obama Administration's connections to Google.

And also, add the whole Blag the Governor episode. That hasn't worked out so well for the Right. The Gov. complained about Obama just wanting to thank him if Ms. Jarrett was going to be appointed senator. He had bigger fish to fry. Unfortunately, the Governor let us down by refusing to take the stand in his defense.

Someone who should step down is our old friend Charlie Rangel, who faces a number of ethics charges in the House. Sorry Charlie, you've had a good run. Now hang it up.

FED Chair Bernanke told the House today that Congress has to keep on spending so the economy can recover. He said that the United States must produce plans to reduce the deficit and the national debt but recovery must take the first priority.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi slammed the door on continuing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy but did emphasize the Democrats' desire to help the middle class. Geitner himself weighed in to say the tax cuts for the wealthy would expire as planned. So the fat is in the proverbial fire.

Remember when Drudge criticized President Obama for not vacationing in the Gulf when he went to Maine. Now President Obama is vacationing in the Gulf. No doubt we'll hear about how many times he played golf. He becoming a regular Ike or maybe even John Boehner.

Meanwhile Vishnu Jindal says we don't need no stinkin' BP money. Even his full statement didn't make any sense.

Tom Tancredo, the friend of all illegal immigrants and a birther, has asked the Republicans running for Governor of Colorado to step aside so he can run. Sounds good to me.

Barbara Boxer has an 11-1 cash on hand advantage against Carly Fiorina. The problem is that Carly intends to write herself a seven figure check to make up the difference. That's what having two yachts can do for you.

Elaine Marshall has jumped out into the lead against Burr in North Carolina. She leads 37-35% with 23% undecided in a race people had automatically put into the Republican column.

Lt. Dan Choi has been discharged from the military for his gayness. Dan Choi drew attention to the cause of gay soldiers through acts of civil disobedience such as chaining himself to the White House fence. Dan has been an articulate spokesperson for repealing DADT. What I can't understand is why discharge him now when you are reviewing the whole policy. Surely, that could have waited.

Oliver North has made a video about DADT, warning Americans that NAMBLA members will now be allowed to enlist in the military and that the home schooled children we are recruiting for the military will quit. The last raises several interesting questions about who exactly are we recruiting into the military. Ollie also raises questions whether chaplains will have to perform same sex marriages and will same sex couples serve in the same units. Another soldier claimed that all the Christians would quit from the military if DADT was repealed. Are we opening a window here on a Christian army waging holy wars against Muslims?

If you're interested in the whole issue of whether Trig is really the son of Sarah Palin, check out Andrew Sullivan's Daily Dish where this seems to be an obsessive topic. There is now a whole hermaneutics on what this would mean or does mean for her future.

Pastor Warren of Silent Cone Fame has blinded himself through an accident. No comment.

The Washington Post printed a fascinating piece today about how the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has spent nearly $3 million a week in opposition to President Obama's major agenda items, breaking all lobbying records and losing big-time. They vow to spend $75 million or more on November's midterm election cycle and have even backed their own candidates in the Republican primaries. So far more than 6 of their hand-picked candidates have gone down to defeat. They claimed to have blocked the union "card check" bill, cap-and-trade climate legislation and the proposed public option. Frankly, in my opinion, they claim credit where nothing was proposed in the first place. They remind me of the NRA who claims to have blocked all sorts of anti-gun moves by the Obama Administration that never existed. The Chamber is simply bilking its members.

And speaking of the public option, the CBO number is out--it would save the country about $68 billion.

John Boehner may have been hitting the sauce because he admitted that the teabaggers "are anarchists who would kill all of us in office." Letting his hair down for the guys.

Election News

Howard Dean has sent out an e-mail about two candidates he's backing this year--Jack Conway in Kentucky and Roxanne Conlin of Iowa. You might add Elaine Marshall in North Carolina to the list of worthy Senate candidates. Jack Conway has attracted attention because he's running against libertarian-Tea Party favorite Rand Paul. Roxanne Conlin is an attorney, and former Attorney-General of Iowa who is challenging Senator Grassley, who just voted against Wall Street Reform as well as Healthcare Reform. Grassley also has the distinction of showcasing stimulus projects in Iowa as his own, when he voted against the package. Conlin is a longshot but Grassley's state approval rate has dipped below 50% and he can be had. Elaine Marshall is another attractive candidate in North Carolina. She grew up on a farm and encouraged by 4H she was the first of her family to go to college. Again as an attorney-general, she actually defended the public interest. Her opponent is Senator Burr ,who has amassed a $6 million war chest. But all three--Conway, Conlin and Marshall make excellent candidates and have run ads that are professional but straight forward. If they can keep their opponents' lead below 10 in the next two months, they have a real shot.

Karl Rove's group is running ads against Harry Reid protesting that Harry hasn't brought home enough of the stimlus bacon to Nevada. I guess the fact that Sharron Angle says her job will not be to create jobs in Nevada, this must leave voters confused. Does Karl mean that Nevada should have a better Democratic Senator? Harry has taken a 7 point lead over Angle in the race according to the Mason-Dixon poll.

I thought it was interesting that Charlie Cook has switched his ratings on the Diaper Dave Vitter race to "leaning Republican". Apparently, Vitter appointing an aide who stabbed his girlfriend as someone in charge of "women's affairs" finally provoked a full slate of primary challengers. The idea that Charlie Melancon ,the Democrat, has a shot at the Louisiana seat is rather surprising and welcomed news.

I'm surprised that Democrats are anticipating Republican attack lines better than they used to. In Ohio, Democrats have jumped John Kasich, who used to brag about his work on Wall Street but now claims he just ran a two-man office for Lehman Brothers in Columbus. The Democrats pre-emptive ad has neutralized Kasich's attempt to minimize his involvement with the Wall Street scandal. Likewise, in Illinois, Democrats have badly wounded Republican favorite for Senate Mark Kirk by pointing out his inconsistencies on his war record. Indeed, the candidate will not even speak to the press. The Democrats destroyed Sue Lowden in Nevada by highlighting her chicken barter idea for healthcare. Now in Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley is in retreat as he is trying to avoid discussing any issues when Democrats and the press started raising questions about what in the state budget he would cut if elected Governor. The same seems to apply to Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, the former owner of the World Wrestling Federation. She had been given a free pass but now questions are being asked about her stands on issues. The local newspaper even dug up her investments in oil companies dealing with Iran.

President Obama has come out in a campaign mode by addressing Republican obstructionism head-on as in his weekly television address. Perhaps the most effective campaigner from the White House so far has been Joe Biden. He likened the newfound concern of Republicans on the national debt as "arsonists expressing concerns about fire safety". Biden has been one of the best salesmen for the benefits of the stimulus package and the laundry list of achievements of the Administration. My problem is that he has oversold the amount of new jobs being created, which may come back and bite the Democrats.

The DNC circulated a memo this week written by Brad Woodhouse, their Communications Director, on "Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in their Proper Perspective". Their basic aim was to calm Democrats down about a possible repeat of 1994 or 2006 when the party in power lost Congress. They claim that there is greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in the Democratic leadership than for the party in power in either of those election cycles.

President Obama is much more popular than President Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994. It also can be said he's more popular than Reagan in 1982, another serious recession year.

More voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust the Republicans to do so. This is always the missing element in news coverage of the polls that point out the lack of confidence in President Obama and the Democrats. The bottom rung here has been occupied by the Republicans at about 26% for the last 18 months.

On the economy--which is rated the number 1 concern by voters--Democrats are trusted more than Republicans 42%-34%. This is a similar margin to the Democrat win in 2006 and a larger margin than the Republicans had in their 1994 win. This is a key number to get a handle on what will happen in the fall.

Voters also trust Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move the country forward in other ways. A Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that "supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment" while just 24% said they were less likely. The Washington Post found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery, as against 37% who opposed.

According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance, while 44% said they would vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. In another poll, a majority now support the healthcare bill.

Given the recent Wall Street Reform bill, Bloomberg found that 45% of voters are more likely to suppport a Congressional candidate who supports "tougher regulations on Wall Street firms" while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.

The generic congressional polls show leads either way. The DNC uses the latest Washington Post poll that showed Republicans with a 47-46% edge. In contrast, the 2006 polls, when democrats won back the House showed Democrats with a 54-41% lead over Republicans.

In short, the conclusion of a Republican takeover of Congress at this stage are not borne out by the polling data, even though all of the Washington pundits make it a foregone conclusion. For the past year, I have been pointing out Republican approval ratings in Congress are abysmal. Republican leadership in both the Senate and the House are lucky on any given week to rise above 30%. I agree that this year is chaotic with the teabagging phenomenon and the rise of the Hard Right but I have yet to see evidence of this promised tsunami of reaction.

This past week the Republican leadership may have been courting their donors for more campaign funds with calls to repeal Wall Street Reform and a moratorium on federal regulations. But I can't believe this gives them any popular momentum. Notice for instance how quiet the Tea baggers have been over the Wall Street Reform bill. Only the corporate funded branch in D.C. mounted half-hearted protests. I also sense that the national debt issue will not redound to their favor. Several polls I've written about indicate that people are not buying the need to cut social security or Medicare. Instead, they are walking over the Republican national security creds by demanding cuts in defense and war.

I still say wait until after Labor Day before we know what's really happening. I'm basically pleased to see that various polls indicate that Americans, however stressed they are, are keeping level heads on the political front. I also believe that the flood of corporate money to Republicans is not going to be a political asset but a liability this year.

Iced Coffee at the Last Manatee

Let it be recorded that on June 23, 2010, official Washington and the Beltway pundits actually agreed that President Obama did something well and did something right in removing General McChrystal. This was the first time in his administration this has actually happened and maybe the last. So it should be commemorated. Perhaps even made into a National Holiday.

Apparently, the firing really was caused by McChrystal's criticism of our European allies in Afghanistan and not the remarks about Obama and Biden.

If you are an environmentalist abandon all hope. I've heard from a number of people on the Gulf Coast, who lament the destruction of their way of life but are utterly committed to deepwater drilling. Unfortunately, they did not watch Rachel Maddow's little segment on why American oil isn't American. Along with her coverage of the Gulf disaster, she deserves credit for her side segments. First was the segment on how the oil companies amassed fortunes untold in the history of man but did not invest in any cleanup technologies after 1979. The second was her explanation that oil is traded on the global market.

As I've written, we could drill everywhere in the United States and offshore and only save 3 cents on a gallon of gas and fuel the American economy for a year or two max. The question is whether we are willing to pay the dire environmental cost. Apparently, the answer is yes. What BP did with one blowout, it took the oil companies almost forty years to do on the Niger Delta, the current model for the Gulf region.

The Last Mantee is no longer ironic. The oil spill has washed into the manatee breeding grounds in Alabama. Also, we are only two Sperm Whale deaths away from that species vanishing for good. I find this somewhat ironic since scientific studies released this week show that whales are closer to the human species than previously thought. But they tend not to kill each other.

Admiral Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced that the greatest security threat to the United States was the national debt. Where was he during the last administration? Or maybe he would like to look in the mirror and ponder the cost of our military/ terrorist complex? Without factoring in inflation, the military/terrorist budget is twice that of the Cold War period. Feel more secure?

The British are basically raising the pension level to 70 to try and eradicate their deficit. I am sure something like that will happen here. But how many blue-collar workers will be healthy enough to work until then? And who will hire them? We have to fight back on this nonsense about the social security system, the most successful social program we have and the most financial solvent of anything in our whole government system. It is clear that the Deficit Commission has several options planned for an overhaul of the social security system. But caveat emptor.

Senator Kyl of Arizona joined the long line of Republicans who lie about President Obama. He claimed that the President Obama told him privately he would do nothing about the southern border of the country until there was immigration reform. Today, Secretary of Homeland Security Napolitano positioned drones to monitor the border. I'm sure Kyl will be apologizing to the President on the floor of the Senate.

This is been a particularly vile week of receiving e-mails and other communications calling into question the President's citizenship,his competence and his desire to fulfil his agenda of "progressive socialism". He's going to grant a blank amnesty to all illegal immigrants (like Reagan?). He's going to create his own military loyal to him (Mike Savage). He outlawed the National Day of Prayer ( court ruled it unconstitutional and Obama is appealing), doesn't go to church (AMZ Baptist and Angelican Churches here in Washington) and by inviting atheists to a faith-based initiative function wanted to portray evangelicals as "knuckle-draggers) (not true?) Also he attacked the traditional family on Father's Day by acknowledging different types of families including those with two Dads. I received a public demand that President Obama and his cabinet resign immediately because of their deception, dishonesty and corruption. Jon Voight claimed Obama has caused a "civil war in Arizona" and is "purposely isolating Israel, our most loyal (?) ally". I received photos of captured arms caches in Arizona portraying the menace of illegal immigrants (although the settin looked suspiciously like Honduras). And for historical purposes, I also received an e-mail wanting Obama for Treason, which is almost identical to the ones produced against JFK.

At least Rush Limbaugh is becoming humanistic. This week he urged poor children to dumpster dive for food. And on the other side of the spectrum communitarian guru Amitai Etizoni called for the invasion of Iran.

As the temperature rises, the polling data worsens. The Gulf oil disaster has stopped all movement in polls showing the country was going in the right direction. Confidence in President Obama's ability to solve the economic crisis has taken a battering. But at least 40% of Americans still believe that George W. Bush is almost exclusively responsible for that situation. But the number blaming Obama has jumped to 27%, which is almost triple what it was about four months ago. The generic polls still fluctuate. A recent poll shows Republicans with a 2% spread on the Democrats. Pollsters are beginning to say that by the end of June attitudes become frozen about the November elections. I doubt this. I still say Labor Day.

President Obama is in for a fight at the G-20 summit since Merkel of Germany is battling him on the need to extend stimulus spending to make sure the global economy recovers. What bothers me with the European austerity measures is that government austerity does not translate into prosperity. I believe this will act like the protectionism in the Great Depression.

No one gives the administration any credit for China's decision to float their currency. This is a major diplomatic victory but like other Obama successes it will not concretely manifest itself in a way that people appreciate.

Polls are showing that Americans are now favoring the health reform bill, except for those over 65. On that issue, the problem has been the Republican filibuster to raise doctors' compensation for Medicare patients. Instead, they have been forced to take a 20% cut in pay, jeopardizing the availability of medical care for Medicare patients. Interestingly, it turns out that one of the persons who has benefited the most from Medicare payments is Rand Paul, whose whole eye practice depends on the elderly.

Remember Elena Kagan? Well, this week has seen the new conservative attacks on her. Even Mitch McConnell won't rule out the filibuster since he has regained his confidence by stopping the Jobs bill and aid to the states. After his defeat on healthcare, he told the media the GOP would not filibuster. According to Frank Gaffney, Elena Kagan, a single Jewish professional women, favors Sharia Law! I won't dignify this by explaining. Judge Bork says that she's pro-choice, which the last time I looked was constitutional, and she favors activist judges like Judge Barack in Israel! One interesting development has been the posting by the Sunshine Foundation of all her e-mails from the Clinton Administration. Easy access and interesting reading. I'm sure we will have more new revelations as the weeks move on. Oh yes, her family are leftwingers from New York City.

For the next Supreme Court choice, I now really want an American Indian so that the conservatives' heads explode. This choice could say, "My people have been trying to fight illegal immigration since 1492" and "we would like some say about the Constitution."

Then I had to hear about the Mosques (it grows with each telling) being built around Ground Zero. At this point, I hope they ring the 9-11 monument with mosques and declare the park a monument to the success of conservative security policies. I mean ,who can forget the immortal words of George Tenet, "I hope it's not the guys from the flight school". At least this whole flap got the head of one of the Teabaggers to resign and coordinate opposition to this plan. The man in question won his spurs as a member of Nixon's dirty tricks squad.

I have not been able to assimilate all the primary results yet. The sultry Sikh romped to vistory in South Carolina and will win the race for Governor. But now the religious right is asking questions about Nikki Haley and Bobby Jindal--whether their conversions are real. On the Democratic side Elaine Marshall won over Carl Cunningham in Nortb Carolina and right now is tied with Republican Burr--that's one I believe the Democrats can win. In Texas, White is tied with secessionist Rick Perry.

In California, Democratic operative Chris Lahane had a nice putdown of Meg Whitman,"Jerry Brown has won more elections than times that Whitman has voted." Whitman has done a pivot on immigration, recording an ad in Spanish, which totally contradicts her primary postion to built a wall on the border and pass an immigration bill.

For the joys of homophobia, consult www.rightwingwatch.com ,which has been reproducing the great hits from the Religious Right for the past two weeks. It's such a rich bounty I would spend days retelling.

Yes, Virgnia, there will be a Wall Street Reform bill come out of conference. Whole armies of lobbyists have been fighting to water it down but something significant will emerge. But by the time it does it will disappoint progressives and upset conservatives. Will it be a substantial imrpovement on the status quo--yes. Will it be a significant achievement of this administration? Yes, but he'll never get credit for it.

At this stage, I believe there are only two other major pieces of legislation that might be able to pass during the rest of Obama's first term--immigration reform; and/or an energy policy bill. And then that will exhaust the ability of Congress to do anything constructive.