++ I had dreams. I approached Howard Dean--he of the 50 state strategy- two years ago and asked whether he would sponsor me for citizenship in Vermont when the state had single payer healthcare. Remember we faced the prospect of the Cooch becoming governor and the fascist flay flying over Richmond.
++I was thrilled when the state announced they would be adopting single-payer in 2017.
++After his narrow victory this year, Governor Peter Shumlin announced he was delaying the single-payer system because the financial plan came in and meant he would have to raise taxes. Crushed. I am outraged. A bitter pill to swallow. No passport with the Green Mountain Boys on the cover. No covert meetings with Bill McKibben. My hopes and dreams are crushed.
++By the way, Vermont has one of the country's best healthcare systems and would only have gotten better with single-payer.
Showing posts with label Howard dean. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Howard dean. Show all posts
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
August is for the Insane Asylum
++Detroit's favorite son, novelist Elmore Leonard died this morning at the age of 87. He had a stroke while working on another novel. Thanks for dozens of good reads!
++Mariano Rivera overcame blowing three straight saves, something he never has done in his career, and saved one against the Bosox, while A-Rod blasted a homer.
++Meanwhile, catch those Dodgers.
++I was at an empty Russell Building a few days ago, reminding myself we are all safe when Congress in not in session. I remain skeptical that Congress can reach a budget agreement before September 30. Conventional wisdom has a continuing resolution and a whale of a fight over the next phase of sequestration in January. Mitch McConnell says he's saving the real battles for the debt ceiling clash.
++Teabag town halls are not going the way the GOP thought. Republican representatives have been challenged about their lies about Obamacare. Meanwhile, the immigration reform blowback has not materialized.
++Jim DeMint and his Heritage Action has targeted six states for the remained of the month to mobilize reaction to Obamacare. While on vacation, President Obama in his Saturday address said that efforts to defund Obamacare are not a game and he vowed to implement the bill as efficiently as possible. George Will claimed that Obama is as bad as Nixon in postponing the implementation of the individual mandate since that was law. Unfortunately for Will, the Supreme Court twice ruled that the executive has the power to decide when to implement a law because it is more aware of the concrete circumstances and problems involved in such a maneuver.
++Jim DeMint said today he didn't know whether President Obama would sign a bill that would defund Obamacare. Then again no one can explain how you defund Obamacare because it is mandatory spending.
This simple fact has not stopped the Teaparty from mounting primary challenges to Mitch McConnell,Lamar Alexander and Lindsey Graham.
++Maine's Teabagger Governor LePage said that Obama hates white people. LePage yesterday faced half the Maine Republicans in the legislature resigning from the party because he dared raise taxes in his budget.
++Ted "Calgary" Cruz released his short form birth certificate that showed he was born in Canada to an American mother. When it was brought to his attention that he was a Canadian citizen by law,he said he would renounce his Canadian citizenship.
++Conservatives are jubilant that there exists another fabricated study that showed the "Invinciables", younger voters with no health insurance, could save $1,000 a year by not signing up for Obamacare. Of course, they didn't figure on costs if these younger people actually got sick. Freedomworks, Americans for Prosperity continue their campaign to get younger people to to enroll in health insurance exchanges because they would sabotage the cost-savings of the program.
++There is another fierce fight among the Right. Diana West wrote a new book that suggests that American politics was occupied by the Soviet Union under FDR. She points the figure at Harry Hopkins as a Soviet agent. The counter-attack was blistering. Conrad Black, a conservative who wrote a biography of FDR, called her worse than Oliver Stone, and Ron Radosh dissected her claims with the existing scholarship on the subject. Interestingly, a younger generation of college professors who do not know the primary literature thought she did a splendid job.
++The weekend brought more drama from Glenn Greenwald. Glenn's husband,a Brazilian man named Miranda, was held up at Heathrow having come from Berlin with thumb drives of more Snowden material. This act got Andrew Sullivan and Rachel Maddow up in arms when Miranda was detained under the UK's terrorist act. Naturally, equating journalism with terrorism raises legitimate concerns. But it gets murkier because Miranda isn't a journalist. Glenn says that he will expose more of the UK's secrets in revenge. Also both Miranda and the Guardian are suing the UK authorities. Somehow I get the sense there is less here than meets the eye.
++The Washington Post published an investigative piece that showed the NSA "violated privacy rights" over 3,000 times last year. Pretty bad, hey. Except the computer geeks who know this game claim that all such violations combined would equate to illegally downloading a Justin Beiber album. or about 58MgB. Pretty slim stuff.
++Meanwhile Julian Assange won the hearts and minds of the Left by backing Rand Paul and the libertarian wing of the Republican Party as the only hope for America. Assange's Wikileaks Party in Australia decided to back white supremacists in the parliamentary elections. Who's goofing whom?
++Meanwhile Snowden remains in Moscow and alerted the world that they should not listen to his father. He is surrounded by a team of the world's leading lawyers and will not be represented by Bruce Fein, the libertarian lawyer from D.C.
++The basic problem still remains--the United States farms out its intelligence to private contractors like Booz-Hamilton who are not responsible to anyone. This costs us $50 billion a year. To prevent another Snowden, the DOD can not even estimate the cost of its preventive program. Meanwhile the FISA court said that it could not determine whether the NSA is really in compliance with the law. Down the rabbit hole we go.
++Meanwhile, Howard Dean is in Iowa. No, not for a 2016 run but Howard wants to revive his 50-state strategy to elect Democratic legislators in Red States. In case, you have missed it Republican legislators have had a field day in the states passing the most onerous anti-abortion laws, anti-voting laws, and primitive educational laws. Basically, these legislatures are passing a vision of life the Right wants to believe--with catastrophic results for anyone else.
++Democrats in Washington believe they have a secret weapon against House Republicans. Next year's sequestration will hit defense spending far greater than domestic spending because of changes this year that eased defense sequestration. They believe that the Republicans will have to suck it up and eliminate tax loopholes for corporations and the oil industry. I don't believe it.
++The Chamber of Commerce is moaning that going Big behind Republicans has not paid off the way they wanted. They were behind the Jobs bill, the Highway Bill,and Immigration Reform and now they have nothing to show from the millions they contributed to GOP campaigns.
++The Cooch has doubled down on his attempt to revive Virginia's Sodomy Law. Now he explains that this was an instrument to prosecute pedophiles. Don't believe it.
++A special prosecutor is investigating Governor Perry's abuse of power in Texas.
++Mariano Rivera overcame blowing three straight saves, something he never has done in his career, and saved one against the Bosox, while A-Rod blasted a homer.
++Meanwhile, catch those Dodgers.
++I was at an empty Russell Building a few days ago, reminding myself we are all safe when Congress in not in session. I remain skeptical that Congress can reach a budget agreement before September 30. Conventional wisdom has a continuing resolution and a whale of a fight over the next phase of sequestration in January. Mitch McConnell says he's saving the real battles for the debt ceiling clash.
++Teabag town halls are not going the way the GOP thought. Republican representatives have been challenged about their lies about Obamacare. Meanwhile, the immigration reform blowback has not materialized.
++Jim DeMint and his Heritage Action has targeted six states for the remained of the month to mobilize reaction to Obamacare. While on vacation, President Obama in his Saturday address said that efforts to defund Obamacare are not a game and he vowed to implement the bill as efficiently as possible. George Will claimed that Obama is as bad as Nixon in postponing the implementation of the individual mandate since that was law. Unfortunately for Will, the Supreme Court twice ruled that the executive has the power to decide when to implement a law because it is more aware of the concrete circumstances and problems involved in such a maneuver.
++Jim DeMint said today he didn't know whether President Obama would sign a bill that would defund Obamacare. Then again no one can explain how you defund Obamacare because it is mandatory spending.
This simple fact has not stopped the Teaparty from mounting primary challenges to Mitch McConnell,Lamar Alexander and Lindsey Graham.
++Maine's Teabagger Governor LePage said that Obama hates white people. LePage yesterday faced half the Maine Republicans in the legislature resigning from the party because he dared raise taxes in his budget.
++Ted "Calgary" Cruz released his short form birth certificate that showed he was born in Canada to an American mother. When it was brought to his attention that he was a Canadian citizen by law,he said he would renounce his Canadian citizenship.
++Conservatives are jubilant that there exists another fabricated study that showed the "Invinciables", younger voters with no health insurance, could save $1,000 a year by not signing up for Obamacare. Of course, they didn't figure on costs if these younger people actually got sick. Freedomworks, Americans for Prosperity continue their campaign to get younger people to to enroll in health insurance exchanges because they would sabotage the cost-savings of the program.
++There is another fierce fight among the Right. Diana West wrote a new book that suggests that American politics was occupied by the Soviet Union under FDR. She points the figure at Harry Hopkins as a Soviet agent. The counter-attack was blistering. Conrad Black, a conservative who wrote a biography of FDR, called her worse than Oliver Stone, and Ron Radosh dissected her claims with the existing scholarship on the subject. Interestingly, a younger generation of college professors who do not know the primary literature thought she did a splendid job.
++The weekend brought more drama from Glenn Greenwald. Glenn's husband,a Brazilian man named Miranda, was held up at Heathrow having come from Berlin with thumb drives of more Snowden material. This act got Andrew Sullivan and Rachel Maddow up in arms when Miranda was detained under the UK's terrorist act. Naturally, equating journalism with terrorism raises legitimate concerns. But it gets murkier because Miranda isn't a journalist. Glenn says that he will expose more of the UK's secrets in revenge. Also both Miranda and the Guardian are suing the UK authorities. Somehow I get the sense there is less here than meets the eye.
++The Washington Post published an investigative piece that showed the NSA "violated privacy rights" over 3,000 times last year. Pretty bad, hey. Except the computer geeks who know this game claim that all such violations combined would equate to illegally downloading a Justin Beiber album. or about 58MgB. Pretty slim stuff.
++Meanwhile Julian Assange won the hearts and minds of the Left by backing Rand Paul and the libertarian wing of the Republican Party as the only hope for America. Assange's Wikileaks Party in Australia decided to back white supremacists in the parliamentary elections. Who's goofing whom?
++Meanwhile Snowden remains in Moscow and alerted the world that they should not listen to his father. He is surrounded by a team of the world's leading lawyers and will not be represented by Bruce Fein, the libertarian lawyer from D.C.
++The basic problem still remains--the United States farms out its intelligence to private contractors like Booz-Hamilton who are not responsible to anyone. This costs us $50 billion a year. To prevent another Snowden, the DOD can not even estimate the cost of its preventive program. Meanwhile the FISA court said that it could not determine whether the NSA is really in compliance with the law. Down the rabbit hole we go.
++Meanwhile, Howard Dean is in Iowa. No, not for a 2016 run but Howard wants to revive his 50-state strategy to elect Democratic legislators in Red States. In case, you have missed it Republican legislators have had a field day in the states passing the most onerous anti-abortion laws, anti-voting laws, and primitive educational laws. Basically, these legislatures are passing a vision of life the Right wants to believe--with catastrophic results for anyone else.
++Democrats in Washington believe they have a secret weapon against House Republicans. Next year's sequestration will hit defense spending far greater than domestic spending because of changes this year that eased defense sequestration. They believe that the Republicans will have to suck it up and eliminate tax loopholes for corporations and the oil industry. I don't believe it.
++The Chamber of Commerce is moaning that going Big behind Republicans has not paid off the way they wanted. They were behind the Jobs bill, the Highway Bill,and Immigration Reform and now they have nothing to show from the millions they contributed to GOP campaigns.
++The Cooch has doubled down on his attempt to revive Virginia's Sodomy Law. Now he explains that this was an instrument to prosecute pedophiles. Don't believe it.
++A special prosecutor is investigating Governor Perry's abuse of power in Texas.
Friday, May 3, 2013
Whither the GOP?
++Senator Pat Toomey basically summed up the failure of his background check bill by saying the Republicans basically hated President Obama and would do nothing to assist him in getting anything he wants.
++Howard Dean thought the latest RNC ad criticizing President Obama for not leading was a loser and that politically when your approval rating is in the low 20s you can't run negative ads and expect any bounce. Howard, whom I have met several times in the last few years, is a shrewd and wise student of politics. In his conversation with Lawrence O'Donnell last night,he asserted that the GOP is deaf in hearing what the public wants or is interested in. Dean is supported by GOP operatives who deeply fear the party will fail to pass an immigration bill and will get behind the curve on gay rights. What Howard Dean didn't mention is that the next GOP presidential nominee will be running against a white person and not President Obama. Right now it looks like they might be running against a white woman and they haven't even addressed the women's issues.
++David Frum ,the creator of the Axis of Evil, thinks that the GOP will not go for "competence" or their governors next time. The reason for this is that the campaign against government means that the next nominee is unlikely to advocate for any role of government in our society except for defense. Frum points out that the 2012 elections showed that conservatives are a minority in this country now and that they will circle the wagons for someone they like and advocate their point of view even if they court defeat. With this in mind Frum looks at their younger stars in Congress--Senators Cruz, Rubio, Paul, and Paul Ryan. As he points out, none of them have any executive experience. Of course, historically,in my lifetime only two Senators ever made it to the White House without a stop in between--Barack Obama and John F. Kennedy.
++The Right-wing emails I get are relatively silent on national security issues, except for the incident in Benghazi. Instead, they have stepped up against abortion,immigrants and taxes. They are relatively silent on gay rights and same sex marriage. Instead,they relay opinions by Catholic Bishops on the latter with no comment. On gun rights the volume is over the top,advocating arming teachers and providing security forces for schools. The two new bugaboos surpassing San Francisco and New York City are Chicago and Philadelphia. Racism emerges with analyses of inner city problems.
++The Big 2014 campaign issues seem to be emerging--another run at Obamacare and promises to repeal it and linking immigration reform to another type of Obamacare. As President Obama pointed out in his press conference, 85% of those people already insured are enjoying the benefits of Obamacare like my family is. The Republican governors reluctance to extend Medicaid, which is the vehicle for insuring the poor,will be one problem but the insurance exchanges will be solved,ironically by the national changes. The problem is that there is still vast ignorance of Obamacare by those very people who would most benefit from it.
++The two aspects of the 2014 elections that benefit Republicans are the possibility of a lower turnout than the general election and the gerrymandering that preserves the House incumbents. Without changing their tune, Republicans might weather 2014 at a national level OK and might come close to taking the Senate. But they will have set them up for a Big Fail in 2016, which historically should be their turn.
++It is the first time in my lifetime that the GOP is genuinely a post-policy party. It virtually believes nothing and have no one capable of developing any sophisticated policy options for the serious problems the country faces.
++On the culture wars, the GOP doomed itself by embracing the Religious Right and the Catholic Church. Younger people want tolerance and the majority of Americans favor same sex marriage, better gun control, immigration reform,medical marijuana, and abortion. That doesn't mean the phalanx of right-wing billionaires can't buy the election and massive voter suppression will not occur. But the thrill is gone. The GOP has maneuvered itself into a position at odds with the silent majority.
++The promise of the GOP governors has faded. Kasich, Corbett,Brownback,Snyder, Walker, Jindal,Scott and Haley now are drowning with approval ratings in the mid-30s at best. The Party has basically drummed out Chris Christie because he will not back away from his praise of President Obama's assistance on Hurricane Sandy.
++The overwhelming fear of grass roots Republicans is the demographic winter--the day whites will only be the largest plurality, not majority in the country. Expect them to throw up as many roadblocks for minorities in the next few years as they can.
++Howard Dean thought the latest RNC ad criticizing President Obama for not leading was a loser and that politically when your approval rating is in the low 20s you can't run negative ads and expect any bounce. Howard, whom I have met several times in the last few years, is a shrewd and wise student of politics. In his conversation with Lawrence O'Donnell last night,he asserted that the GOP is deaf in hearing what the public wants or is interested in. Dean is supported by GOP operatives who deeply fear the party will fail to pass an immigration bill and will get behind the curve on gay rights. What Howard Dean didn't mention is that the next GOP presidential nominee will be running against a white person and not President Obama. Right now it looks like they might be running against a white woman and they haven't even addressed the women's issues.
++David Frum ,the creator of the Axis of Evil, thinks that the GOP will not go for "competence" or their governors next time. The reason for this is that the campaign against government means that the next nominee is unlikely to advocate for any role of government in our society except for defense. Frum points out that the 2012 elections showed that conservatives are a minority in this country now and that they will circle the wagons for someone they like and advocate their point of view even if they court defeat. With this in mind Frum looks at their younger stars in Congress--Senators Cruz, Rubio, Paul, and Paul Ryan. As he points out, none of them have any executive experience. Of course, historically,in my lifetime only two Senators ever made it to the White House without a stop in between--Barack Obama and John F. Kennedy.
++The Right-wing emails I get are relatively silent on national security issues, except for the incident in Benghazi. Instead, they have stepped up against abortion,immigrants and taxes. They are relatively silent on gay rights and same sex marriage. Instead,they relay opinions by Catholic Bishops on the latter with no comment. On gun rights the volume is over the top,advocating arming teachers and providing security forces for schools. The two new bugaboos surpassing San Francisco and New York City are Chicago and Philadelphia. Racism emerges with analyses of inner city problems.
++The Big 2014 campaign issues seem to be emerging--another run at Obamacare and promises to repeal it and linking immigration reform to another type of Obamacare. As President Obama pointed out in his press conference, 85% of those people already insured are enjoying the benefits of Obamacare like my family is. The Republican governors reluctance to extend Medicaid, which is the vehicle for insuring the poor,will be one problem but the insurance exchanges will be solved,ironically by the national changes. The problem is that there is still vast ignorance of Obamacare by those very people who would most benefit from it.
++The two aspects of the 2014 elections that benefit Republicans are the possibility of a lower turnout than the general election and the gerrymandering that preserves the House incumbents. Without changing their tune, Republicans might weather 2014 at a national level OK and might come close to taking the Senate. But they will have set them up for a Big Fail in 2016, which historically should be their turn.
++It is the first time in my lifetime that the GOP is genuinely a post-policy party. It virtually believes nothing and have no one capable of developing any sophisticated policy options for the serious problems the country faces.
++On the culture wars, the GOP doomed itself by embracing the Religious Right and the Catholic Church. Younger people want tolerance and the majority of Americans favor same sex marriage, better gun control, immigration reform,medical marijuana, and abortion. That doesn't mean the phalanx of right-wing billionaires can't buy the election and massive voter suppression will not occur. But the thrill is gone. The GOP has maneuvered itself into a position at odds with the silent majority.
++The promise of the GOP governors has faded. Kasich, Corbett,Brownback,Snyder, Walker, Jindal,Scott and Haley now are drowning with approval ratings in the mid-30s at best. The Party has basically drummed out Chris Christie because he will not back away from his praise of President Obama's assistance on Hurricane Sandy.
++The overwhelming fear of grass roots Republicans is the demographic winter--the day whites will only be the largest plurality, not majority in the country. Expect them to throw up as many roadblocks for minorities in the next few years as they can.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
MORE HEALTHCARE
++Mitt Romney continues to fund-raise on the decision, banking over $2 million at this point.
++Mitt Romney's full view of the decision sounded like a House Republican mime. "It was bad law yesterday and it is bad law today." Besides, in case, you never heard it Obamacare is a "job-killer" as the vast majority of the American Chamber of Commerce will tell you. However, the story is slightly different for small businesses which get tax credits to take advantage of it.
++Erickson at Redstate writes, "John Roberts just made Romney president."
++Charles Krauthammer actually had a decent op-ed praising Judge Roberts' attitude and decision even though he disagreed with the vote. Krauthammer talks about Roberts' sense of higher duty as the chief justice of the entire court and how he is committed to restoring the court's credibility. He also points out how he remains a conservative judge by his attempt to limit the Commerce Clause. It reads like Krauthammer is a little fed up with the tenor of political discussion in Washington and wanted to try out higher themes.
++Judge Roberts, the hero of conservatives in Citizens United, has become a turncoat and right-wing pundits are trying to float the mantra "Impeach Roberts".
++Louie Gohmert has a better idea. He wants to open an investigation of Elaine Kagan because he thinks there was a conflict of interest in her voting. He didn't mention Clarence Thomas' conflict of interest with a wife who campaigned with the teapartiers against the healthcare law.
++One writer observed that Mitt Romney is trying to energize the base by exploiting the decision but has failed to articulate his own alternatives. Instead, Romney wants the status quo, even abandoning his own Massachusetts model. The problem this writer says is that the United States doesn't want the status quo but is fed up with the current healthcare system. The American people have lived with the current health insurance industry for the past 30 years and wants to be done with it.
++Supporters of the healthcare bill say it just will not be repealed, even if Republicans win the White House, Senate and retain the House. The reason is that the popular aspects of the bill are just becoming known and some just taking place. You simply can not repeal the law with a single page but instead that single page becomes 50 and then you have to restore all the popular provisions. Besides, you would have the Democrats filibuster. It just won't happen. What the Supreme Court did today was legitimize the Healthcare bill since Republicans have waged two years against it claiming it was unconstitutional. While Republicans hold the same view today, what about independents and moderates?
++Former Senator Bennett, who had been ousted by a tea bagger, said "Healthcare reform is now here to stay." Bennett, a conservative Republican,doesn't like Obamacare but says that no one has come up with anything better and that he in fact favors the individual mandate.
++Be prepared for the return of the old mantra, Obamacare is the largest tax hike in history. Rush Limbaugh today claimed the IRS was Obama's private army and you might remember the old claim that thousands more IRS agents will have to be hired to monitor the compliance of the mandate. Naturally, the penalties on the individual mandate will be marginal at best and very few people will pay anything but you will hear this throughout the campaign.
++Meanwhile Howard Dean, one of the most level-head commentators about healthcare reform, told the Morning Joe that the individual mandate is really irrelevant. Dean, who pioneered health reform in Vermont, said that the Americans overwhelmingly want to buy health insurance if it is affordable. He pointed to the development of the health insurance exchanges as the salvation for the program. Vastly enlarging the pool will cut health insurance costs and those poorer will get subsidies. He believes that with the provisions in there now enough Americans will take advantage of it to make the individual mandate moot. He taunted the tea baggers saying if they want to go without health insurance in this circumstance, let them.
++Think Progress posted ten reasons the Republicans won't be able to repeal Obamacare. It is worth a read.
++The left is concerned about the limitations by the decision on the expansion of the Medicaid program. We will have to see whether they are right. As for the concerns about he Commerce Clause, there again progressives felt that Roberts put that in there to argue cases down the road for further de-regulation.
++But like it or not a right-wing court ratified the role of the federal government to make policy, contrary to the tea baggers, admitted Congress can pass large social policy bills and basically affirmed the whole notion of a President attempting to rectify a national crisis--something most commentators are loath to admit.
++The Republicans are now changing their line once again. They are moving away from hiding behind the constitution and just arguing it is bad policy. Mitch McConnell reiterated this point this afternoon when he acknowledged it was constitutional but said the Congress must work beginning today to repeal it.
++It's great to criticize President Obama for actually having a health reform plan but it is another to put one forth on your own. The Divisions within the Republican Party are so deep that an alternative policy is not possible. The battle cry of "Repeal and Replace" of 2010 has no replacements in it. And to raise one now would undercut the basic message about this election being a referendum on Obama.
++The GOP's deliberate coupling of the healthcare decision with the contempt citation for Eric Holder simply bombed. Eric Holder is the first Attorney-General of the United States cited with contempt by Congress. Obvious to all, he is the first African-American Attorney-General. The covert message was heard loud and clear but the story was eaten up by the Healthcare decision all day.
++How this plays out in the election depends on the Obama Campaign being able to aggressively sell the positive provisions in the bill, something they never did before. And increasingly, the election looks like organization against finances and whether people will turn out in significant numbers.
++One classy bit was the former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party wondering aloud if it was time for armed insurrection.
++Mitt Romney's full view of the decision sounded like a House Republican mime. "It was bad law yesterday and it is bad law today." Besides, in case, you never heard it Obamacare is a "job-killer" as the vast majority of the American Chamber of Commerce will tell you. However, the story is slightly different for small businesses which get tax credits to take advantage of it.
++Erickson at Redstate writes, "John Roberts just made Romney president."
++Charles Krauthammer actually had a decent op-ed praising Judge Roberts' attitude and decision even though he disagreed with the vote. Krauthammer talks about Roberts' sense of higher duty as the chief justice of the entire court and how he is committed to restoring the court's credibility. He also points out how he remains a conservative judge by his attempt to limit the Commerce Clause. It reads like Krauthammer is a little fed up with the tenor of political discussion in Washington and wanted to try out higher themes.
++Judge Roberts, the hero of conservatives in Citizens United, has become a turncoat and right-wing pundits are trying to float the mantra "Impeach Roberts".
++Louie Gohmert has a better idea. He wants to open an investigation of Elaine Kagan because he thinks there was a conflict of interest in her voting. He didn't mention Clarence Thomas' conflict of interest with a wife who campaigned with the teapartiers against the healthcare law.
++One writer observed that Mitt Romney is trying to energize the base by exploiting the decision but has failed to articulate his own alternatives. Instead, Romney wants the status quo, even abandoning his own Massachusetts model. The problem this writer says is that the United States doesn't want the status quo but is fed up with the current healthcare system. The American people have lived with the current health insurance industry for the past 30 years and wants to be done with it.
++Supporters of the healthcare bill say it just will not be repealed, even if Republicans win the White House, Senate and retain the House. The reason is that the popular aspects of the bill are just becoming known and some just taking place. You simply can not repeal the law with a single page but instead that single page becomes 50 and then you have to restore all the popular provisions. Besides, you would have the Democrats filibuster. It just won't happen. What the Supreme Court did today was legitimize the Healthcare bill since Republicans have waged two years against it claiming it was unconstitutional. While Republicans hold the same view today, what about independents and moderates?
++Former Senator Bennett, who had been ousted by a tea bagger, said "Healthcare reform is now here to stay." Bennett, a conservative Republican,doesn't like Obamacare but says that no one has come up with anything better and that he in fact favors the individual mandate.
++Be prepared for the return of the old mantra, Obamacare is the largest tax hike in history. Rush Limbaugh today claimed the IRS was Obama's private army and you might remember the old claim that thousands more IRS agents will have to be hired to monitor the compliance of the mandate. Naturally, the penalties on the individual mandate will be marginal at best and very few people will pay anything but you will hear this throughout the campaign.
++Meanwhile Howard Dean, one of the most level-head commentators about healthcare reform, told the Morning Joe that the individual mandate is really irrelevant. Dean, who pioneered health reform in Vermont, said that the Americans overwhelmingly want to buy health insurance if it is affordable. He pointed to the development of the health insurance exchanges as the salvation for the program. Vastly enlarging the pool will cut health insurance costs and those poorer will get subsidies. He believes that with the provisions in there now enough Americans will take advantage of it to make the individual mandate moot. He taunted the tea baggers saying if they want to go without health insurance in this circumstance, let them.
++Think Progress posted ten reasons the Republicans won't be able to repeal Obamacare. It is worth a read.
++The left is concerned about the limitations by the decision on the expansion of the Medicaid program. We will have to see whether they are right. As for the concerns about he Commerce Clause, there again progressives felt that Roberts put that in there to argue cases down the road for further de-regulation.
++But like it or not a right-wing court ratified the role of the federal government to make policy, contrary to the tea baggers, admitted Congress can pass large social policy bills and basically affirmed the whole notion of a President attempting to rectify a national crisis--something most commentators are loath to admit.
++The Republicans are now changing their line once again. They are moving away from hiding behind the constitution and just arguing it is bad policy. Mitch McConnell reiterated this point this afternoon when he acknowledged it was constitutional but said the Congress must work beginning today to repeal it.
++It's great to criticize President Obama for actually having a health reform plan but it is another to put one forth on your own. The Divisions within the Republican Party are so deep that an alternative policy is not possible. The battle cry of "Repeal and Replace" of 2010 has no replacements in it. And to raise one now would undercut the basic message about this election being a referendum on Obama.
++The GOP's deliberate coupling of the healthcare decision with the contempt citation for Eric Holder simply bombed. Eric Holder is the first Attorney-General of the United States cited with contempt by Congress. Obvious to all, he is the first African-American Attorney-General. The covert message was heard loud and clear but the story was eaten up by the Healthcare decision all day.
++How this plays out in the election depends on the Obama Campaign being able to aggressively sell the positive provisions in the bill, something they never did before. And increasingly, the election looks like organization against finances and whether people will turn out in significant numbers.
++One classy bit was the former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party wondering aloud if it was time for armed insurrection.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Unfinished Business
DADT--Despite Lady Gaga's valiant effort in Portland, Maine, it looks like the GOP will filibuster the entire Defense Appropriations bill to block the repeal of the gay ban. Leading the charge will be Country Last John McCain, who had said during the presidential campaign he would drop DADT if the military agreed--which, with the except of the new Marine Corps commander, they have. The situation is rich in ironies. The allegedly strong defenders of national security would basically de-fund both wars over an issue the federal court has already ruled unconstitutional and the House has already passed its repeal. Then again, with the momentary blip in the Washington media about how friendly to gays the GOP has become, it has to be noted that the court case, which finally doomed DADT, was brought by the Log Cabin Republicans, who are honoring Senator John Cornyn of Texas with their Barry Goldwater Award.
In the end, Barack Obama may have to do a Harry Truman and revoke DADT through executive order as Truman did with racial discrimination in the military.
The Prop 8 Case. Here the the poor 9th Circuit Court is rummaging around for anyone with standing to defend Prop 8 after Vaughn Walker ruled it unconstitutional. Rumors have one town in California trying to recruit a religious Right group to argue the case. Frankly, I don't know whether that would pass the smell test of "having standing."
Sharia Law--Eugene Robinson did an excellent job in blasting Newt Gingrich's speech at AEI, where Leroy raised the new Red Scare of a leftwing conspiracy to get Sharia Law accepted in the United States. In defense of Leroy McPherson, he was coming off a chest-pounding speech at the Value-Less Summit, where the grifters of the religious right eat this up. But Gene put this away in today's column with a calm, eloquence. There existed only one case in recent memory in America where a local judge sided with a Muslim husband over the issue of forced sex with his wife. But on appeal this ruling was over-turned. That is the extent of the threat to America. It's sort of like "terror babies" or "death panels".
Roger Cohen also had an excellent op-ed in today's Washington Post, which simply says that given the GOP candidates this year Republicans are simply not fit to govern. Full stop. You don't need to read the piece.
If you sense that Democrats seem to be a nicer breed of candidate and grounded in reality, you might want to thank Howard Dean's work as DNC chair when he created the 50-state strategy, which believed that no seat was unwinnable. Last night, Howard Dean appeared on the Rachel Maddow show and said calmly that the Democrats would keep both the Senate and the House. He said that President Obama was key and has to keep on the campaign trail. He went on to say that what we are seeing now are the last gasps of the extreme right. He said that the younger American is not homophobic, racist or anti-immigrant and that they will be around in 2012. While you can write off Dean's comments as a good soldier for the party, I was surprised by his calm assurance. He claimed the reason for holding both the House and the Senate was that the Democrats had better candidates and that the average American still knows who got them in the mess.
For a counter opinion, Michael Gerson writes today that the Republican tide is growing as for example the bad fate of Democrat Ellsworth in Indiana and sinking polls in Pennsylvania. Frankly, I'm reading very different polls from Pennsylvania, which actually show the Democrats having a shot at the state house, which I had written off, and winning swing seats, which Republicans need to win to capture the House.
Howard Dean mentioned something else. He said that the Health Reform Bill puts Republicans in a bind. For example, they must tell their base they will repeal. But on Thursday, key provisions of Healthcare kick in--no more rescissions, no more lifetime caps on payouts, no more prohibiting insuring children with pre-existing conditions, and parents can keep covering their children until 26. If President Obama spells out these changes in everyday language, the pressure tightens the bind on the GOP. Howard is right on this.
The Washington Post wrote a front page piece today on how the Tea Party was now a movement raising millions and going to field get out the vote efforts. I even received a call from the DNC about this. The actual problem appears to be a massive effort by the Tea Party and the GOP at voter suppression. This has become clear in Wisconsin, for example. There the Tea Party wants to act as election monitors and challenge voters. Because of the nature of state laws, the GOP and the Tea Party people can actually challenge voters who mail in votes,etc. This is a tactic called "caging voters" and preventing their votes to be counted. As to real Get Out The Vote efforts, it is true the religious Right and the Tea Baggers have purchased very expensive IT systems but their problem is that their average constituent is over 55 and appears at this time to be severely limited technically. In other words, it looks like a very expensive waste of money. Also, the Tea Baggers were to hold a national convention in Las Vegas, but had to cancel.
I get the sense the Nate Silver is pondering his predictions this morning with his comments on recent polls coming from swing seats, which show Democrats in comfortable leads. He is raising questions about how useful the generic vote polling is to determining the final election. He appears to be watching some of the polling I have been watching. For example, there are a handful of House seats in New York,where the constituency is historically Republican but which in 2008 went Democrat. They appear to be staying that way for now. Likewise, three seats in Iowa show Democrats holding them, when the mood in the state has tilted Republican. Chris Van Hollen continues to release internal polls on so-called contested House races, which show Democrats with surprising strength. That 43 number looks very daunting from a Republican perspective. Yesterday's Gallup poll shows Democrats with a 1% edge on Republicans in the generic poll. Normally not great news, this marks another indicator that the Democratic Party may be coming out its summer slump.
If you want to follow Christine O'Donnell's silliness, I recommend Think Progress' piece "The Old Adventures of New Christine", which documents her obsession with sex, gays, God, religion and popular culture. To her credit, she knows that Sarah Palin become a millionaire grifter by advocating these nutty things so she really has made a great career move. However, the recent poll on the Delaware race puts Coons in a commanding position and shows that only 33% of those in the state believe she is qualified for public office.
Barbara Boxer appears to be following her past pattern--bad polling in the beginning of the campaign and widening the distance at the end. She has hit 50% against Carly Fiorina. However, Governor Moonbeam has been running a below the radar campaign. I guess he figures that Meg Whitman's incessant ads will turn everyone off in the end. Queen Meg has obtained the Guinness Book of Records for personal spending on her campaign--surpassing the $120 million mark.
Republicans will be releasing their new Contract with America on Thursday, the same distance from election as their 1994 effort. So far, it's unclear how they are going to deal with the whole tax and deficit issue. President Obama in the last few days has hammered how irresponsible keeping these tax cuts are. Vast majority of Americans in poll after poll after poll agree with the President and are against the tax cuts for the rich. And how are the Republicans going to reconcile their repeal of Healthcare with their "pretend" concern with the national debt. Any tinkering with the Healthcare issue will vastly increase the national debt as several CBO reports maintain.
Then we come back to the social conservatives and the Religious Right. Rachel Maddow did a good service by pointing out that the tea baggers are almost all culture warriors being absolutist against women's choice, anti-gay, against immigrants and anti-anything but Christians. On real economic and political issues, they basically subsume corporate agendas and whatever the Koch brothers funnel to their front organizations. But they simply don't believe any of these things. Their real goal is parallel with the ambitions of the Religious Right. Even Rand Paul, Mr. Libertarian, has been campaigning hard among the Christian Right as opposed to his real anti-government constituency. Since the Christian Right were allowed under Bush-Rove to gain a strangehold on the Republican Party,it is inconceivable for me to believe they can abandon their base. In fact, there has been backlash against Mitch Daniels and others suggesting the GOP abandon these issues in a time of economic hardship.
Ann Coulter was right when she criticized Tan Man Boehner for claiming earlier this summer how large a Republican victory would be, saying that anything less would be considered a loss. I agree. The media narrative has been set--this is a tsunami election and if the Republicans don't win then heads should roll. In fact, people are aleady starting this mantra among House Republicans, who view Boehner as lazy and someone who should not allowed to speak after 3pm.
I'm currentlyagnostic about how much the media really affects our elections. I didn't believe they did in 2008 and I'm beginnning to believe we are going to see the same non-effect this year. One dirty secret among the networks is that all of them were in terrible financial shape until the 2008 primaries and the elections generated revenues to keep them afloat. So they stayed with their winning formula. Then CNN tried to poach the FOX audience by hiring more conservative types to report on politics. This hasn't quite played out as well for them. But it's all business. Unfortunately, I believe they have played an unhealthy role in giving the Teabaggers the media attention they so desire. These people are American Idol wannabes. Politics is nothing but television anyway.
In the end, this year's election comes down to the rational reality-based candidate against the paranoids,psychopaths, meglomaniacs. Forget liberal or conservative. The conservatives vanished into the swamp of lunacy.
Finally, if you are concerned about the deficit, then let's have all the tax breaks expire. This morning's Washington Post shows that if they did expire, our deficit would essentially evaporate.
In the end, Barack Obama may have to do a Harry Truman and revoke DADT through executive order as Truman did with racial discrimination in the military.
The Prop 8 Case. Here the the poor 9th Circuit Court is rummaging around for anyone with standing to defend Prop 8 after Vaughn Walker ruled it unconstitutional. Rumors have one town in California trying to recruit a religious Right group to argue the case. Frankly, I don't know whether that would pass the smell test of "having standing."
Sharia Law--Eugene Robinson did an excellent job in blasting Newt Gingrich's speech at AEI, where Leroy raised the new Red Scare of a leftwing conspiracy to get Sharia Law accepted in the United States. In defense of Leroy McPherson, he was coming off a chest-pounding speech at the Value-Less Summit, where the grifters of the religious right eat this up. But Gene put this away in today's column with a calm, eloquence. There existed only one case in recent memory in America where a local judge sided with a Muslim husband over the issue of forced sex with his wife. But on appeal this ruling was over-turned. That is the extent of the threat to America. It's sort of like "terror babies" or "death panels".
Roger Cohen also had an excellent op-ed in today's Washington Post, which simply says that given the GOP candidates this year Republicans are simply not fit to govern. Full stop. You don't need to read the piece.
If you sense that Democrats seem to be a nicer breed of candidate and grounded in reality, you might want to thank Howard Dean's work as DNC chair when he created the 50-state strategy, which believed that no seat was unwinnable. Last night, Howard Dean appeared on the Rachel Maddow show and said calmly that the Democrats would keep both the Senate and the House. He said that President Obama was key and has to keep on the campaign trail. He went on to say that what we are seeing now are the last gasps of the extreme right. He said that the younger American is not homophobic, racist or anti-immigrant and that they will be around in 2012. While you can write off Dean's comments as a good soldier for the party, I was surprised by his calm assurance. He claimed the reason for holding both the House and the Senate was that the Democrats had better candidates and that the average American still knows who got them in the mess.
For a counter opinion, Michael Gerson writes today that the Republican tide is growing as for example the bad fate of Democrat Ellsworth in Indiana and sinking polls in Pennsylvania. Frankly, I'm reading very different polls from Pennsylvania, which actually show the Democrats having a shot at the state house, which I had written off, and winning swing seats, which Republicans need to win to capture the House.
Howard Dean mentioned something else. He said that the Health Reform Bill puts Republicans in a bind. For example, they must tell their base they will repeal. But on Thursday, key provisions of Healthcare kick in--no more rescissions, no more lifetime caps on payouts, no more prohibiting insuring children with pre-existing conditions, and parents can keep covering their children until 26. If President Obama spells out these changes in everyday language, the pressure tightens the bind on the GOP. Howard is right on this.
The Washington Post wrote a front page piece today on how the Tea Party was now a movement raising millions and going to field get out the vote efforts. I even received a call from the DNC about this. The actual problem appears to be a massive effort by the Tea Party and the GOP at voter suppression. This has become clear in Wisconsin, for example. There the Tea Party wants to act as election monitors and challenge voters. Because of the nature of state laws, the GOP and the Tea Party people can actually challenge voters who mail in votes,etc. This is a tactic called "caging voters" and preventing their votes to be counted. As to real Get Out The Vote efforts, it is true the religious Right and the Tea Baggers have purchased very expensive IT systems but their problem is that their average constituent is over 55 and appears at this time to be severely limited technically. In other words, it looks like a very expensive waste of money. Also, the Tea Baggers were to hold a national convention in Las Vegas, but had to cancel.
I get the sense the Nate Silver is pondering his predictions this morning with his comments on recent polls coming from swing seats, which show Democrats in comfortable leads. He is raising questions about how useful the generic vote polling is to determining the final election. He appears to be watching some of the polling I have been watching. For example, there are a handful of House seats in New York,where the constituency is historically Republican but which in 2008 went Democrat. They appear to be staying that way for now. Likewise, three seats in Iowa show Democrats holding them, when the mood in the state has tilted Republican. Chris Van Hollen continues to release internal polls on so-called contested House races, which show Democrats with surprising strength. That 43 number looks very daunting from a Republican perspective. Yesterday's Gallup poll shows Democrats with a 1% edge on Republicans in the generic poll. Normally not great news, this marks another indicator that the Democratic Party may be coming out its summer slump.
If you want to follow Christine O'Donnell's silliness, I recommend Think Progress' piece "The Old Adventures of New Christine", which documents her obsession with sex, gays, God, religion and popular culture. To her credit, she knows that Sarah Palin become a millionaire grifter by advocating these nutty things so she really has made a great career move. However, the recent poll on the Delaware race puts Coons in a commanding position and shows that only 33% of those in the state believe she is qualified for public office.
Barbara Boxer appears to be following her past pattern--bad polling in the beginning of the campaign and widening the distance at the end. She has hit 50% against Carly Fiorina. However, Governor Moonbeam has been running a below the radar campaign. I guess he figures that Meg Whitman's incessant ads will turn everyone off in the end. Queen Meg has obtained the Guinness Book of Records for personal spending on her campaign--surpassing the $120 million mark.
Republicans will be releasing their new Contract with America on Thursday, the same distance from election as their 1994 effort. So far, it's unclear how they are going to deal with the whole tax and deficit issue. President Obama in the last few days has hammered how irresponsible keeping these tax cuts are. Vast majority of Americans in poll after poll after poll agree with the President and are against the tax cuts for the rich. And how are the Republicans going to reconcile their repeal of Healthcare with their "pretend" concern with the national debt. Any tinkering with the Healthcare issue will vastly increase the national debt as several CBO reports maintain.
Then we come back to the social conservatives and the Religious Right. Rachel Maddow did a good service by pointing out that the tea baggers are almost all culture warriors being absolutist against women's choice, anti-gay, against immigrants and anti-anything but Christians. On real economic and political issues, they basically subsume corporate agendas and whatever the Koch brothers funnel to their front organizations. But they simply don't believe any of these things. Their real goal is parallel with the ambitions of the Religious Right. Even Rand Paul, Mr. Libertarian, has been campaigning hard among the Christian Right as opposed to his real anti-government constituency. Since the Christian Right were allowed under Bush-Rove to gain a strangehold on the Republican Party,it is inconceivable for me to believe they can abandon their base. In fact, there has been backlash against Mitch Daniels and others suggesting the GOP abandon these issues in a time of economic hardship.
Ann Coulter was right when she criticized Tan Man Boehner for claiming earlier this summer how large a Republican victory would be, saying that anything less would be considered a loss. I agree. The media narrative has been set--this is a tsunami election and if the Republicans don't win then heads should roll. In fact, people are aleady starting this mantra among House Republicans, who view Boehner as lazy and someone who should not allowed to speak after 3pm.
I'm currentlyagnostic about how much the media really affects our elections. I didn't believe they did in 2008 and I'm beginnning to believe we are going to see the same non-effect this year. One dirty secret among the networks is that all of them were in terrible financial shape until the 2008 primaries and the elections generated revenues to keep them afloat. So they stayed with their winning formula. Then CNN tried to poach the FOX audience by hiring more conservative types to report on politics. This hasn't quite played out as well for them. But it's all business. Unfortunately, I believe they have played an unhealthy role in giving the Teabaggers the media attention they so desire. These people are American Idol wannabes. Politics is nothing but television anyway.
In the end, this year's election comes down to the rational reality-based candidate against the paranoids,psychopaths, meglomaniacs. Forget liberal or conservative. The conservatives vanished into the swamp of lunacy.
Finally, if you are concerned about the deficit, then let's have all the tax breaks expire. This morning's Washington Post shows that if they did expire, our deficit would essentially evaporate.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Election News
Howard Dean has sent out an e-mail about two candidates he's backing this year--Jack Conway in Kentucky and Roxanne Conlin of Iowa. You might add Elaine Marshall in North Carolina to the list of worthy Senate candidates. Jack Conway has attracted attention because he's running against libertarian-Tea Party favorite Rand Paul. Roxanne Conlin is an attorney, and former Attorney-General of Iowa who is challenging Senator Grassley, who just voted against Wall Street Reform as well as Healthcare Reform. Grassley also has the distinction of showcasing stimulus projects in Iowa as his own, when he voted against the package. Conlin is a longshot but Grassley's state approval rate has dipped below 50% and he can be had. Elaine Marshall is another attractive candidate in North Carolina. She grew up on a farm and encouraged by 4H she was the first of her family to go to college. Again as an attorney-general, she actually defended the public interest. Her opponent is Senator Burr ,who has amassed a $6 million war chest. But all three--Conway, Conlin and Marshall make excellent candidates and have run ads that are professional but straight forward. If they can keep their opponents' lead below 10 in the next two months, they have a real shot.
Karl Rove's group is running ads against Harry Reid protesting that Harry hasn't brought home enough of the stimlus bacon to Nevada. I guess the fact that Sharron Angle says her job will not be to create jobs in Nevada, this must leave voters confused. Does Karl mean that Nevada should have a better Democratic Senator? Harry has taken a 7 point lead over Angle in the race according to the Mason-Dixon poll.
I thought it was interesting that Charlie Cook has switched his ratings on the Diaper Dave Vitter race to "leaning Republican". Apparently, Vitter appointing an aide who stabbed his girlfriend as someone in charge of "women's affairs" finally provoked a full slate of primary challengers. The idea that Charlie Melancon ,the Democrat, has a shot at the Louisiana seat is rather surprising and welcomed news.
I'm surprised that Democrats are anticipating Republican attack lines better than they used to. In Ohio, Democrats have jumped John Kasich, who used to brag about his work on Wall Street but now claims he just ran a two-man office for Lehman Brothers in Columbus. The Democrats pre-emptive ad has neutralized Kasich's attempt to minimize his involvement with the Wall Street scandal. Likewise, in Illinois, Democrats have badly wounded Republican favorite for Senate Mark Kirk by pointing out his inconsistencies on his war record. Indeed, the candidate will not even speak to the press. The Democrats destroyed Sue Lowden in Nevada by highlighting her chicken barter idea for healthcare. Now in Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley is in retreat as he is trying to avoid discussing any issues when Democrats and the press started raising questions about what in the state budget he would cut if elected Governor. The same seems to apply to Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, the former owner of the World Wrestling Federation. She had been given a free pass but now questions are being asked about her stands on issues. The local newspaper even dug up her investments in oil companies dealing with Iran.
President Obama has come out in a campaign mode by addressing Republican obstructionism head-on as in his weekly television address. Perhaps the most effective campaigner from the White House so far has been Joe Biden. He likened the newfound concern of Republicans on the national debt as "arsonists expressing concerns about fire safety". Biden has been one of the best salesmen for the benefits of the stimulus package and the laundry list of achievements of the Administration. My problem is that he has oversold the amount of new jobs being created, which may come back and bite the Democrats.
The DNC circulated a memo this week written by Brad Woodhouse, their Communications Director, on "Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in their Proper Perspective". Their basic aim was to calm Democrats down about a possible repeat of 1994 or 2006 when the party in power lost Congress. They claim that there is greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in the Democratic leadership than for the party in power in either of those election cycles.
President Obama is much more popular than President Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994. It also can be said he's more popular than Reagan in 1982, another serious recession year.
More voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust the Republicans to do so. This is always the missing element in news coverage of the polls that point out the lack of confidence in President Obama and the Democrats. The bottom rung here has been occupied by the Republicans at about 26% for the last 18 months.
On the economy--which is rated the number 1 concern by voters--Democrats are trusted more than Republicans 42%-34%. This is a similar margin to the Democrat win in 2006 and a larger margin than the Republicans had in their 1994 win. This is a key number to get a handle on what will happen in the fall.
Voters also trust Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move the country forward in other ways. A Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that "supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment" while just 24% said they were less likely. The Washington Post found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery, as against 37% who opposed.
According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance, while 44% said they would vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. In another poll, a majority now support the healthcare bill.
Given the recent Wall Street Reform bill, Bloomberg found that 45% of voters are more likely to suppport a Congressional candidate who supports "tougher regulations on Wall Street firms" while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.
The generic congressional polls show leads either way. The DNC uses the latest Washington Post poll that showed Republicans with a 47-46% edge. In contrast, the 2006 polls, when democrats won back the House showed Democrats with a 54-41% lead over Republicans.
In short, the conclusion of a Republican takeover of Congress at this stage are not borne out by the polling data, even though all of the Washington pundits make it a foregone conclusion. For the past year, I have been pointing out Republican approval ratings in Congress are abysmal. Republican leadership in both the Senate and the House are lucky on any given week to rise above 30%. I agree that this year is chaotic with the teabagging phenomenon and the rise of the Hard Right but I have yet to see evidence of this promised tsunami of reaction.
This past week the Republican leadership may have been courting their donors for more campaign funds with calls to repeal Wall Street Reform and a moratorium on federal regulations. But I can't believe this gives them any popular momentum. Notice for instance how quiet the Tea baggers have been over the Wall Street Reform bill. Only the corporate funded branch in D.C. mounted half-hearted protests. I also sense that the national debt issue will not redound to their favor. Several polls I've written about indicate that people are not buying the need to cut social security or Medicare. Instead, they are walking over the Republican national security creds by demanding cuts in defense and war.
I still say wait until after Labor Day before we know what's really happening. I'm basically pleased to see that various polls indicate that Americans, however stressed they are, are keeping level heads on the political front. I also believe that the flood of corporate money to Republicans is not going to be a political asset but a liability this year.
Karl Rove's group is running ads against Harry Reid protesting that Harry hasn't brought home enough of the stimlus bacon to Nevada. I guess the fact that Sharron Angle says her job will not be to create jobs in Nevada, this must leave voters confused. Does Karl mean that Nevada should have a better Democratic Senator? Harry has taken a 7 point lead over Angle in the race according to the Mason-Dixon poll.
I thought it was interesting that Charlie Cook has switched his ratings on the Diaper Dave Vitter race to "leaning Republican". Apparently, Vitter appointing an aide who stabbed his girlfriend as someone in charge of "women's affairs" finally provoked a full slate of primary challengers. The idea that Charlie Melancon ,the Democrat, has a shot at the Louisiana seat is rather surprising and welcomed news.
I'm surprised that Democrats are anticipating Republican attack lines better than they used to. In Ohio, Democrats have jumped John Kasich, who used to brag about his work on Wall Street but now claims he just ran a two-man office for Lehman Brothers in Columbus. The Democrats pre-emptive ad has neutralized Kasich's attempt to minimize his involvement with the Wall Street scandal. Likewise, in Illinois, Democrats have badly wounded Republican favorite for Senate Mark Kirk by pointing out his inconsistencies on his war record. Indeed, the candidate will not even speak to the press. The Democrats destroyed Sue Lowden in Nevada by highlighting her chicken barter idea for healthcare. Now in Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley is in retreat as he is trying to avoid discussing any issues when Democrats and the press started raising questions about what in the state budget he would cut if elected Governor. The same seems to apply to Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, the former owner of the World Wrestling Federation. She had been given a free pass but now questions are being asked about her stands on issues. The local newspaper even dug up her investments in oil companies dealing with Iran.
President Obama has come out in a campaign mode by addressing Republican obstructionism head-on as in his weekly television address. Perhaps the most effective campaigner from the White House so far has been Joe Biden. He likened the newfound concern of Republicans on the national debt as "arsonists expressing concerns about fire safety". Biden has been one of the best salesmen for the benefits of the stimulus package and the laundry list of achievements of the Administration. My problem is that he has oversold the amount of new jobs being created, which may come back and bite the Democrats.
The DNC circulated a memo this week written by Brad Woodhouse, their Communications Director, on "Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in their Proper Perspective". Their basic aim was to calm Democrats down about a possible repeat of 1994 or 2006 when the party in power lost Congress. They claim that there is greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in the Democratic leadership than for the party in power in either of those election cycles.
President Obama is much more popular than President Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994. It also can be said he's more popular than Reagan in 1982, another serious recession year.
More voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust the Republicans to do so. This is always the missing element in news coverage of the polls that point out the lack of confidence in President Obama and the Democrats. The bottom rung here has been occupied by the Republicans at about 26% for the last 18 months.
On the economy--which is rated the number 1 concern by voters--Democrats are trusted more than Republicans 42%-34%. This is a similar margin to the Democrat win in 2006 and a larger margin than the Republicans had in their 1994 win. This is a key number to get a handle on what will happen in the fall.
Voters also trust Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move the country forward in other ways. A Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that "supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment" while just 24% said they were less likely. The Washington Post found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery, as against 37% who opposed.
According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance, while 44% said they would vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. In another poll, a majority now support the healthcare bill.
Given the recent Wall Street Reform bill, Bloomberg found that 45% of voters are more likely to suppport a Congressional candidate who supports "tougher regulations on Wall Street firms" while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.
The generic congressional polls show leads either way. The DNC uses the latest Washington Post poll that showed Republicans with a 47-46% edge. In contrast, the 2006 polls, when democrats won back the House showed Democrats with a 54-41% lead over Republicans.
In short, the conclusion of a Republican takeover of Congress at this stage are not borne out by the polling data, even though all of the Washington pundits make it a foregone conclusion. For the past year, I have been pointing out Republican approval ratings in Congress are abysmal. Republican leadership in both the Senate and the House are lucky on any given week to rise above 30%. I agree that this year is chaotic with the teabagging phenomenon and the rise of the Hard Right but I have yet to see evidence of this promised tsunami of reaction.
This past week the Republican leadership may have been courting their donors for more campaign funds with calls to repeal Wall Street Reform and a moratorium on federal regulations. But I can't believe this gives them any popular momentum. Notice for instance how quiet the Tea baggers have been over the Wall Street Reform bill. Only the corporate funded branch in D.C. mounted half-hearted protests. I also sense that the national debt issue will not redound to their favor. Several polls I've written about indicate that people are not buying the need to cut social security or Medicare. Instead, they are walking over the Republican national security creds by demanding cuts in defense and war.
I still say wait until after Labor Day before we know what's really happening. I'm basically pleased to see that various polls indicate that Americans, however stressed they are, are keeping level heads on the political front. I also believe that the flood of corporate money to Republicans is not going to be a political asset but a liability this year.
Monday, March 1, 2010
The Lair of the White Worm*
*A Ken Russell movie you can miss.
Heard Howard Dean on the Young Turks. Howard Dean said that the Senate Health bill was basically written by two former employees of Wellpoint and United Health. He still is for it but suggests a Medicare buy-in for people 55 or older, since we are the high price people in health care. He believes the compromise with the Republicans could be to drop the mandates because that is the only part that is unpopular with the American people. On the other hand,that would not satisfy the insurance companies who desparately need these new customers. I think it might be clever if Obama dropped the mandates and forced the Republicans to put them back in the bill because they would have to answer to their insurance funders.
A spokeswoman for the Commonwealth Fund said the full implications of their report are not all the dire cost escalations which I quoted yesterday but rather that Americans, who still had health insurance, would see a rapid deterioration in the care they receive. She said doing nothing would not maintain the status quo as Republicans argue but start the steady decline in the American healthcare system.
Frank Luntz must feel the most important person in Washington today. How would you like to be a writer and everyone in town reads from your script. "Scrap the bill", "Start Over Again","take commonsense measures","the American people only support incremental change" were repeated over and over again from Republicans both in the Health Care Summit and on the television stations all weekend. All of these are verbatim quotes from his memo. I'm waiting for a Republican to suddenly talk for him or herself. Can you imagine being a Senator having to use talking points written by a consultant for everything?
A constituent of John McCain's wrote a letter to an Arizona newspaper questioning where the man's integrity went. The writer pointed to McCain's past support for sensible immigration reform, cap and trade legislation to combat global climate change,a debt commission and health care reform. And all these positions have been dramatically reversed because he faces a primary challenger who is bonkers. The writer asks why the 72-year old McCain doesn't stick to his principles and if he loses, do a Joe Lieberman and run as an independent. Good question because there are no strong Democratic candidates for the seat and John can't very well turn back again once he defeated his rightwing challenger and convince people he really doesn't believe what he says now.
I've noticed that since John McCain appears on the Sunday Talk Shows every week since he lost to President Obama that now no one reports anymore what he says. This is the Orrin Hatch syndrome. Hatch for years appeared on Meet the Press and was so convinced all American knew who he was that he ran for the Republican presidential nomination only to discover no one knew who he was or at least listened to anything he had to say.
Former Freedom House board member Dick Ravitch has assumed the position as the only mature adult in Albany with the David Patterson scandal forcing the Governor to announce he was not running again. Ross Douhot, the new ersatz conservative New York Times columnist, has embraced another former Freedom House board member Mitch Daniels as his candidate for President since Mitt Romney can't make anyone like him. Mitch, the former head of the OMB, has vowed that states must radically reduce spending in the next few years. His message is sour and his personality is perfect for Indiana but nowhere else. Maybe he can get another Freedom House trustee Peggy Noonan to write his speeches for him.
The unemployed are forming a union. One of their first acts is to call for Jim Bunning to be thrown out of the Baseball Hall of Fame for his one-man stunt to block the continuation of unemployment compensation. His stunt also means a layoff today of thousands of transit workers around the country and a cut in doctors' fees for Medicare by over 20%. Nice going Jim. By the way, Sandy Koufax has been acting as spring training pitching coach for the New York Mets.
Pat Robertson said God was even more upset with Chile than Haiti because of the prosecution of Augusto Pincohet. But commentators point out that Chile's good government has mitigated that country's disaster as contrasted with Haiti poor government performance. So good government may be the answer to counter God's wrath. Maybe the United States could learn that. I can see this becoming part of the Good Governance program for USAID. Who knows it may actually persuade some countries.
Republican talking heads say the healthcare bill is unpopular with the American people. Actually, every point on the Obama 11-page plan had a majority support except for mandates. If anything,if you bury deep into the polling data, it shows that the American people do not believe the health reform bills go far enough. The so-called "public option" has overwhelming support in both red and blue states and it's the only element left out of the Senate bill.
MENTAL TEST: Over the next few years, jot down names of Republican talking heads, commentators and op-ed writers for potential names of people who would serve in another Republican administration. As Ronald Reagan said, "Personnel is policy." Just do this and review the list and I am sure you will be horrified.
Whether you agree with Paul Krugman or not, it was embarassing to see him as a guest on one of the Sunday talk shows where all they talked about was the replacement of the White House social secretary. When he interrupted to talk about the growing number of unemployed, Sam Donaldson pipe up,"Welcome to Washington, Paul." This isn't Stoogeland for nothing.
I'm getting a little fed up with the conservatives alleged reverence for Ronald Reagan. Almost every conservative that has been quoted by the press as wanting to go back to the days of the Big Ron were part of the gang of conservatives who turned against him during his second term. Later these same characters turned against George H.W. Bush and went over to Ross Perot. This stuff also applies to conservative attacks on Ron Reagan, Jr. Big Ron's problem with Little Ron was around the issue of ballet. However, the adopted son Michael now dons his father's political mantle and attacks young Ron when Michael only reconciled with his father when he was stricken with Alzheimer. What a bunch of opportunists.
Heard Howard Dean on the Young Turks. Howard Dean said that the Senate Health bill was basically written by two former employees of Wellpoint and United Health. He still is for it but suggests a Medicare buy-in for people 55 or older, since we are the high price people in health care. He believes the compromise with the Republicans could be to drop the mandates because that is the only part that is unpopular with the American people. On the other hand,that would not satisfy the insurance companies who desparately need these new customers. I think it might be clever if Obama dropped the mandates and forced the Republicans to put them back in the bill because they would have to answer to their insurance funders.
A spokeswoman for the Commonwealth Fund said the full implications of their report are not all the dire cost escalations which I quoted yesterday but rather that Americans, who still had health insurance, would see a rapid deterioration in the care they receive. She said doing nothing would not maintain the status quo as Republicans argue but start the steady decline in the American healthcare system.
Frank Luntz must feel the most important person in Washington today. How would you like to be a writer and everyone in town reads from your script. "Scrap the bill", "Start Over Again","take commonsense measures","the American people only support incremental change" were repeated over and over again from Republicans both in the Health Care Summit and on the television stations all weekend. All of these are verbatim quotes from his memo. I'm waiting for a Republican to suddenly talk for him or herself. Can you imagine being a Senator having to use talking points written by a consultant for everything?
A constituent of John McCain's wrote a letter to an Arizona newspaper questioning where the man's integrity went. The writer pointed to McCain's past support for sensible immigration reform, cap and trade legislation to combat global climate change,a debt commission and health care reform. And all these positions have been dramatically reversed because he faces a primary challenger who is bonkers. The writer asks why the 72-year old McCain doesn't stick to his principles and if he loses, do a Joe Lieberman and run as an independent. Good question because there are no strong Democratic candidates for the seat and John can't very well turn back again once he defeated his rightwing challenger and convince people he really doesn't believe what he says now.
I've noticed that since John McCain appears on the Sunday Talk Shows every week since he lost to President Obama that now no one reports anymore what he says. This is the Orrin Hatch syndrome. Hatch for years appeared on Meet the Press and was so convinced all American knew who he was that he ran for the Republican presidential nomination only to discover no one knew who he was or at least listened to anything he had to say.
Former Freedom House board member Dick Ravitch has assumed the position as the only mature adult in Albany with the David Patterson scandal forcing the Governor to announce he was not running again. Ross Douhot, the new ersatz conservative New York Times columnist, has embraced another former Freedom House board member Mitch Daniels as his candidate for President since Mitt Romney can't make anyone like him. Mitch, the former head of the OMB, has vowed that states must radically reduce spending in the next few years. His message is sour and his personality is perfect for Indiana but nowhere else. Maybe he can get another Freedom House trustee Peggy Noonan to write his speeches for him.
The unemployed are forming a union. One of their first acts is to call for Jim Bunning to be thrown out of the Baseball Hall of Fame for his one-man stunt to block the continuation of unemployment compensation. His stunt also means a layoff today of thousands of transit workers around the country and a cut in doctors' fees for Medicare by over 20%. Nice going Jim. By the way, Sandy Koufax has been acting as spring training pitching coach for the New York Mets.
Pat Robertson said God was even more upset with Chile than Haiti because of the prosecution of Augusto Pincohet. But commentators point out that Chile's good government has mitigated that country's disaster as contrasted with Haiti poor government performance. So good government may be the answer to counter God's wrath. Maybe the United States could learn that. I can see this becoming part of the Good Governance program for USAID. Who knows it may actually persuade some countries.
Republican talking heads say the healthcare bill is unpopular with the American people. Actually, every point on the Obama 11-page plan had a majority support except for mandates. If anything,if you bury deep into the polling data, it shows that the American people do not believe the health reform bills go far enough. The so-called "public option" has overwhelming support in both red and blue states and it's the only element left out of the Senate bill.
MENTAL TEST: Over the next few years, jot down names of Republican talking heads, commentators and op-ed writers for potential names of people who would serve in another Republican administration. As Ronald Reagan said, "Personnel is policy." Just do this and review the list and I am sure you will be horrified.
Whether you agree with Paul Krugman or not, it was embarassing to see him as a guest on one of the Sunday talk shows where all they talked about was the replacement of the White House social secretary. When he interrupted to talk about the growing number of unemployed, Sam Donaldson pipe up,"Welcome to Washington, Paul." This isn't Stoogeland for nothing.
I'm getting a little fed up with the conservatives alleged reverence for Ronald Reagan. Almost every conservative that has been quoted by the press as wanting to go back to the days of the Big Ron were part of the gang of conservatives who turned against him during his second term. Later these same characters turned against George H.W. Bush and went over to Ross Perot. This stuff also applies to conservative attacks on Ron Reagan, Jr. Big Ron's problem with Little Ron was around the issue of ballet. However, the adopted son Michael now dons his father's political mantle and attacks young Ron when Michael only reconciled with his father when he was stricken with Alzheimer. What a bunch of opportunists.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
The Public Option--Health Care
If I want to learn anything about the health care debate, there are only two people I listen to--Dr.Howard Dean and Barack Obama. The rest of the pundits and the Republican scream machine are simply nuts. Within minutes of today's press conference by President Obama, American Health Insurance Plans and Blue Cross/Blue Shield warned that a "government health plan" would dismantle employer coverage in the US and would not compete fairly with private health insurance companies. President Obama today was asked whether a public option is necessary for his health care plan.
It is apparent that the private health insurance industry is terrified by a public option. Almost all the arguments being used against the public option really relate to private insurance companies. Health care is already being rationed--as they claim about any government system--bureaucrats are already deciding proper medical care, --as witnessed by the complaints by private doctors that insurance companies prevent them prescribing certain medicines to their patients, --key procedures are being denied--maybe even triggering rescinding of the health insurance policy, leaving the patrient with the bill. The health insurance industry is in terrible financial shape and they are buying congresscritters left and right to block any fundamental reform that will force them to streamline their own bureaucratic bloat--almost 40% of current medical expenses--and will cut into their profits.
One reporter asked President Obama whether he can guarantee if someone likes their insurance they can keep it ,if the company decides to go on a public plan. Talk about a red herring. Today, you can't keep your plan if your employer drops coverage or moves to a less expensive option. I couldn't even keep my own organization's plan and I was the President. I'm no longer on it.
The media is not really being straight with the American people. I have yet to hear or to see a simple demonstration of what the public option would look like. President Obama clearly knows and keeps describing it as a menu of options--but this doesn't carry to the bulk of Americans. It sounds to0 vague and iffy as if it isn't being practiced right now. You can actually look up the menu of options right now.
A major network should do the CNN electronic screen and type into the internet www.opm.gov/Insure/Health and review all the options available for employees of the federal government. Simply type in your zipcode and then decide what type of employee you are, as an experiment. I choose to be an employee of the FDIC. You are then presented with a long list of options from the top providers in the health insurance industry--Blue Cross/ Blue Shield, Kaiser Permanente, Aetna, etc. Then click a check for all the programs you want to compare. You will be amazed by the prices of the insurance. My wife and I spend $17,000 a year on health insurance for a family plan, a comparable program under this menu would cost one-half that. Same benefits, same deductible and same coverage.
In part, it's because of the larger risk pool that lowers the rates. Another nice feature is a list of questions about doctors choice, response speed, patient satisfaction so you get an idea about the users' responses to these health plans. No wonder the insurance companies are terrified--they simply don't want this option explained--clearly and succinctly to the American people. Even the media refer to Congressmen and women as having Cadillac programs--suggesting these would not be available to the average American. This is simply not true.
It is apparent that the private health insurance industry is terrified by a public option. Almost all the arguments being used against the public option really relate to private insurance companies. Health care is already being rationed--as they claim about any government system--bureaucrats are already deciding proper medical care, --as witnessed by the complaints by private doctors that insurance companies prevent them prescribing certain medicines to their patients, --key procedures are being denied--maybe even triggering rescinding of the health insurance policy, leaving the patrient with the bill. The health insurance industry is in terrible financial shape and they are buying congresscritters left and right to block any fundamental reform that will force them to streamline their own bureaucratic bloat--almost 40% of current medical expenses--and will cut into their profits.
One reporter asked President Obama whether he can guarantee if someone likes their insurance they can keep it ,if the company decides to go on a public plan. Talk about a red herring. Today, you can't keep your plan if your employer drops coverage or moves to a less expensive option. I couldn't even keep my own organization's plan and I was the President. I'm no longer on it.
The media is not really being straight with the American people. I have yet to hear or to see a simple demonstration of what the public option would look like. President Obama clearly knows and keeps describing it as a menu of options--but this doesn't carry to the bulk of Americans. It sounds to0 vague and iffy as if it isn't being practiced right now. You can actually look up the menu of options right now.
A major network should do the CNN electronic screen and type into the internet www.opm.gov/Insure/Health and review all the options available for employees of the federal government. Simply type in your zipcode and then decide what type of employee you are, as an experiment. I choose to be an employee of the FDIC. You are then presented with a long list of options from the top providers in the health insurance industry--Blue Cross/ Blue Shield, Kaiser Permanente, Aetna, etc. Then click a check for all the programs you want to compare. You will be amazed by the prices of the insurance. My wife and I spend $17,000 a year on health insurance for a family plan, a comparable program under this menu would cost one-half that. Same benefits, same deductible and same coverage.
In part, it's because of the larger risk pool that lowers the rates. Another nice feature is a list of questions about doctors choice, response speed, patient satisfaction so you get an idea about the users' responses to these health plans. No wonder the insurance companies are terrified--they simply don't want this option explained--clearly and succinctly to the American people. Even the media refer to Congressmen and women as having Cadillac programs--suggesting these would not be available to the average American. This is simply not true.
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