In case your television was broadcasting Sarah Palin and Michael Steele's 2,000 person rally in California, President Obama appeared at a rally on the campus of Ohio State University, where only 35,000 showed up. Our commentators felt that this might have been mis-timed because Wisconsin beat Ohio State in football the night before and Obama might not be able to rally his base. Maybe it's true but everyone there was enthused.
At least Obama can rally his base when he appears on Mythbusters to demonstrate whether Archimedes really did burn the invading fleet with mirrors.
Albert Hunt, the former Wall Street Journal columnist and now a writer for Bloomberg News, warns about the major scandal coming out of this election season, which will involve politicians, bribes and secret money. He says that this will be worse than Watergate.
Remember Congressman DeFazio trying to find out who was behind Concerned Taxpayers of America? Well, apparently, someone did find out whose backing Art Robinson, Climate Change denier and advocate for more nuclear testing for our own health. The Concerned Taxpayers is not an inaccurate title. It does refer to more than 1. It's two--Robert Mercer of a New York-based Hedge Fund and Daniel Schuster Inc. of Owings Mill, Maryland. That's it. So these anonymous two guys are buying up some ads to run against one Maryland Congressman and one Oregon congressman, who must have offended them personally. I wonder what they did to create such a fuss.
The Left in the United States owes all of us an apology for mis-using the word Fascist all these many decades. Because now is the time where it applies.
Exhibit A. Joe Miller, the Tea Party Thug candidate in Alaska, answers a question on how we can deal with illegal immigration and he answers "If East Germany can do it, we can." That's like conservatives telling me that even though we used North Korean techniques to torture people we're not as bad as North Korea. Put aside the issue of where illegal immigrants are coming from to land on the shores of Alaska. Or how many people really tried to smuggle themselves into East Germany? But notice, please, how fungible Miller's once stated libertarianism is and how quick he wants to use police state tactics.
But the kicker of the evening occured when Tony Hopfinger, the founder and editor of the Alaska Dispatch, started asking Miller about the reports of his illegal behavior at his former job. His father had e-mailed the tea party that this wasn't a problem because Miller did it on the weekend. Hopfinger tried to follow up. But Miller had his security people threaten Hopfinger with trespassing--this was public property--and they handcuffed him. The Alaskan police had to show up and uncuff the reporter.
Of course, the Miller camp immediately sent out an e-mail trying to rationalize their action. Now who is Tony Hopfinger? He is the host and moderator of tonight's Senate debate in Alaska. Can you imagine if this had happened with Tom Brokow, who moderated the Whitman-Brown debate? Remember this wasn't a mistake. This happened in full view and with the permission of the candidate.
Now who were the security guards? This is an issue the media has not picked up on but the tea baggers have security guards of dubious backgrounds. Miller's thugs look like Skin-heads. They come from a local security company named "Drop Zone Security", who boast members of the Alaskan militia, which is more right-wing than the Michigan militia, and former employees of Blackwater. We know these people from the twenties and thirties in Germany.
Maybe if we looked hard enough, we would find that Miller really is a member like Todd Palin of the Alaska Independence Party, which was founded by a man who wanted the United States to be consumed by fire. He blew himself up with dynamite while building bombs.
I refer all readers to Richard Evans' The Coming of the Third Reich (Penguin Press), which deals with the origins of Nazism, the development of its ideas and its rise to power in 1933. It should be mandatory reading for all Americans, who want to know what's going to happen.
The AP decided to run a story today that the 111th Congress probably accomplished more than the landmark 89th Congress of 1965-1966. Norman Ornstein, the last sane man at AEI, puts this Congress' actions on a par with the Congress that passed civil rights legislation and Medicare and Medicaid. Unfortunately, reaction set in on that Congress and Democrats lost 48 seats in the House that year. Ornstein has previously written that Barack Obama has accomplished in his short term more than any President since LBJ. Other scholars have noted he was accomplished more than Carter and Clinton combined.
Scott Rasmussen predicts Republicans will win 55 seats this year. That would surpass the 1994 Newt Revolution. I'm still not buying into this as of yet.
I know we like good honest debates between candidates. But I enjoy the Jack Conway-Rand Paul debates, which are descending into mud fights. Conway got in the best line: "As Attorney-General of Kentucky, I'm always amused to get a lecture in constitutional law from a self-certified opthalmologist." Bang. Zoom. Ouch. Paul wouldn't shake Conway's hand last night because he had questioned his faith. I knew that ad was a dicey gamble but I'm glad Conway is one Democrat who turned the religion cards against Paul. I hope in 2012 we see more of this, aimed at the self-righteous radical Christian right.
Republican John Raese is fighting back against Gov. Manchin's ad saying he lives in Florida. His response--"We have a home in Colorado also." I'm sure West Virginian voters will appreciate that. That makes it all the more reasonable he's running for Senate in a state where he doesn't live.
E.J. Dionne has a good piece in this morning's Washington Post about the multi-level strategy being used by the Republicans this year, where they can claim plausible deniability on the smear campaigns. He also points to the article in the new New Yorker piece about the radical right wing roots for some of the teabagger ideology.
It's so bad that even the New York Post endorsed Andrew Cuomo over Carl Palladino. So even some people in Murdoch land cringe at the lunacy of the teabaggers.
Remember my observation that the vast sums of money being raised by Republicans is somewhat neutralized because they pay so much for fund-raising? Well, John Bircher Sharron Angle blew through $10 million over the last 3 months. One-third of that was spent on fund-raising.
President Obama has boxed himself in on DADT. Instead of fighting the court ruling that it was unconstitutional, the Administration should have left itself wiggle room. It's clear to me that Gates wants to delay repealing it for his own good. It's also clear to me John McCain is playing some inside game with the Pentagon. McCain vows to filibuster the Defense Appropriations bill if it includes DADT, which he did before recess.
First, we will know the results of the elections by the time this comes up. We know the results will show a more conservative Senate and a nutty House. The prospects of getting any Congress to repeal it would be diminished. The House already repealed it. I would make McCain actually filibuster the Bill--make the Republicans speak on the floor of the Senate for ever. Then President Obama should acknowledge the DADT can't be repealed by legislative action and sign an executive order like Harry Truman did on integrating the army. This is a policy that needs to be killed as soon as possible and waiting for a process to do it isn't right to the men and woman in uniform who face discharge every day. Obama would have two years to recover from any backlash. We would already have experienced the first wave of reaction on November 2.
The other item on the agenda after recess will be the tax-cuts. The Administration has to play power politics on this. President Obama must make it clear he will veto any extension of the tax cuts for the wealthy on the basis of fiscal responsibility. I bet the House under the Republicans will suspend the PayGo rules to adopt these tax cuts.
Showing posts with label Jack Conway. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jack Conway. Show all posts
Monday, October 18, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
The Continuing War against America
Karl Rove is still fuming about being attacked by the White House. Yesterday he called on President Obama to release his enemies list. Bob Gibbs had fun in saying they didn't have one so now Karl Rove can release the names of his donors. Rove claimed that President Obama wasn't concerned about the donors of Think Progress, who are all openly known. Rove was trying a dog-whistle here about George Soros, which the Chamber had already used. Unfortunately for Rove, George Soros told the New York Times on a separate matter that he was n o longer getting involved in elections in the United States and could not stop the Republican avalanche. The Washington punditry tried to downplay the charges against the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove but outside the beltway the charges are sticking.
We are now down to the Air War versus the Ground War. The tsunami of money is to pour in the elections this week. Just imagine some of the waste. Conservative groups have ponied up $10 million to defeat Alan Grayson in Florida. Sharron Angle declared her last quarter fund-raising topped $14 million from conservative groups. The AFL-CIO has announced its will expand its ground operation to 20 more House seats and vow to be the strategic dam for the Democrats.
But there are some strange things happening out on the hustings. Republicans are trying desparately to avoid debates. Michelle Bachmann even skipped a debate held 15 minutes from her house. They are even avoiding interviews with the local press. Alaskan Teabagger Joe Miller has come under more fire recently as the Alaskan newspapers are simply asking what did he ever do for a living. Miller was supposed to have held a press conference yesterday afternoon but cancelled it and said he would not answer any questions about his private life for the rest of the campaign. He said he was "drawing a line in the sand."
I watched several of the candidate debates yesterday. Joe Miller came across as a thug and an ignoramus. Democrat Scott McAdams outlined his qualifications for the job but came across as very young in attitude. Asked whom he admired in the Senate, he talked about Jon Tester of Montana and mentioned an older Alaskan senator. Lisa Murkowski spoke also and talked about Tad Stevens and others. Both candidates received sustained applause. Joe Miller said that he admired Jim DeMint. There was dead silence--you could hear tumbleweed roll by. There seems to be more buyers' remorse with Miller and questions are being raised about everything from his resume, to his debts and to his positions.
The Koch Brothers' Tea Party Express is due to dump $500,000 on Miller's campaign this week. But polls are actually showing tremendous slippage in Miller--his support now is evaporating down from the 50% to mid-30s in no time.
I had already written off Russ Feingold as dead for his refusal to accept out of state financing in Wisconsin. But his internal polls show it is now tied at 48-48 after two victories in the debates. Even Rasmussen shows Feingold has cut Johnson lead to 7% from 12% in no time.
Chris Coons still maintains a 16% lead over Christine O'Donnell even though her money train arrives this week. Delaware is a state where Democrats will also pick up Mike Castle's old House seat.
Arizona's Governor Jan Brewer, is being staalked now by Terry Goddard, the Attorney-General who refused to defend the Arizona immigration law. Goddard is only 3 back among registered voters, and some 11 with likely voters. The strong momentum is based on Goddard winning the Hispanic vote.
Governor Mankin has taken the lead in West Virginia after his hard-hitting ads. He launched his third one in a row with real West Virginians firefighters talking about his Republican opponent.
Mark Kirk of Illinois , who now is behind the Democratic, was caught on tape talking about "voter integrity squads" to be sent to "vulnerable districts", mainly Hispanic and Black areas. Traditionally, this is GOP speak for vorter suppression efforts and Kirk earlier had bragged about how he had the best voter suppression effort in the state.
I watched the James Conway-Rand Paul debate in Kentucky. Remember Conway got more votes in his primary than Paul did in the GOP. Registered Democrats in the state outnumber Repubicans by 600,000. Conway is a handsome ,articulate candidate with a sure grasp of the issues. Rand Paul was caught off guard and showed he didn't know much about his own state. He tried to cast the debate as a protest against Barack Obama, sounding all the racial dogwhistles. But I don't think it worked. Rand Paul came across as an awkward ,inarticulate personality. Conway dominated the whole debate both visually and verbally. Today, Rand Paul tried to get back at Clinton campaigning in the state, saying how can you believe a person who had an affair with an intern. Clearly Rand was wounded.
Ken Jenson at PPP polling says that he thinks the Republicans will take the House by a wide margin but the Democrats will do much better in the Senate than anyone thinks. On the Senate I happen to agree with him. Last night I reviewed some House polls, which show the Democrats can pick up 10 Republican seats, meaning that the Republicans need 49 seats to take the House. While Nate Silver projects a Republican win also, he also points out that the highest odds are for 47-48 seats.
Major Garrett, former Fox news reporter, writing in the Washington Monthly, outlines the whole Democratic approach since a week after Barack Obama took the oath of office. Even then the Democratic leadership told their members what the Republicans had in store for them in 2010. With a strategy created by Rahm Emmanual, the Democrats sought to raise funds early and often so that vulnerable members would have a cushion when the onslaught began. The whole idea was that the Democrats could maintain control of the House by a bare minimum and still claim victory.
We are now down to the Air War versus the Ground War. The tsunami of money is to pour in the elections this week. Just imagine some of the waste. Conservative groups have ponied up $10 million to defeat Alan Grayson in Florida. Sharron Angle declared her last quarter fund-raising topped $14 million from conservative groups. The AFL-CIO has announced its will expand its ground operation to 20 more House seats and vow to be the strategic dam for the Democrats.
But there are some strange things happening out on the hustings. Republicans are trying desparately to avoid debates. Michelle Bachmann even skipped a debate held 15 minutes from her house. They are even avoiding interviews with the local press. Alaskan Teabagger Joe Miller has come under more fire recently as the Alaskan newspapers are simply asking what did he ever do for a living. Miller was supposed to have held a press conference yesterday afternoon but cancelled it and said he would not answer any questions about his private life for the rest of the campaign. He said he was "drawing a line in the sand."
I watched several of the candidate debates yesterday. Joe Miller came across as a thug and an ignoramus. Democrat Scott McAdams outlined his qualifications for the job but came across as very young in attitude. Asked whom he admired in the Senate, he talked about Jon Tester of Montana and mentioned an older Alaskan senator. Lisa Murkowski spoke also and talked about Tad Stevens and others. Both candidates received sustained applause. Joe Miller said that he admired Jim DeMint. There was dead silence--you could hear tumbleweed roll by. There seems to be more buyers' remorse with Miller and questions are being raised about everything from his resume, to his debts and to his positions.
The Koch Brothers' Tea Party Express is due to dump $500,000 on Miller's campaign this week. But polls are actually showing tremendous slippage in Miller--his support now is evaporating down from the 50% to mid-30s in no time.
I had already written off Russ Feingold as dead for his refusal to accept out of state financing in Wisconsin. But his internal polls show it is now tied at 48-48 after two victories in the debates. Even Rasmussen shows Feingold has cut Johnson lead to 7% from 12% in no time.
Chris Coons still maintains a 16% lead over Christine O'Donnell even though her money train arrives this week. Delaware is a state where Democrats will also pick up Mike Castle's old House seat.
Arizona's Governor Jan Brewer, is being staalked now by Terry Goddard, the Attorney-General who refused to defend the Arizona immigration law. Goddard is only 3 back among registered voters, and some 11 with likely voters. The strong momentum is based on Goddard winning the Hispanic vote.
Governor Mankin has taken the lead in West Virginia after his hard-hitting ads. He launched his third one in a row with real West Virginians firefighters talking about his Republican opponent.
Mark Kirk of Illinois , who now is behind the Democratic, was caught on tape talking about "voter integrity squads" to be sent to "vulnerable districts", mainly Hispanic and Black areas. Traditionally, this is GOP speak for vorter suppression efforts and Kirk earlier had bragged about how he had the best voter suppression effort in the state.
I watched the James Conway-Rand Paul debate in Kentucky. Remember Conway got more votes in his primary than Paul did in the GOP. Registered Democrats in the state outnumber Repubicans by 600,000. Conway is a handsome ,articulate candidate with a sure grasp of the issues. Rand Paul was caught off guard and showed he didn't know much about his own state. He tried to cast the debate as a protest against Barack Obama, sounding all the racial dogwhistles. But I don't think it worked. Rand Paul came across as an awkward ,inarticulate personality. Conway dominated the whole debate both visually and verbally. Today, Rand Paul tried to get back at Clinton campaigning in the state, saying how can you believe a person who had an affair with an intern. Clearly Rand was wounded.
Ken Jenson at PPP polling says that he thinks the Republicans will take the House by a wide margin but the Democrats will do much better in the Senate than anyone thinks. On the Senate I happen to agree with him. Last night I reviewed some House polls, which show the Democrats can pick up 10 Republican seats, meaning that the Republicans need 49 seats to take the House. While Nate Silver projects a Republican win also, he also points out that the highest odds are for 47-48 seats.
Major Garrett, former Fox news reporter, writing in the Washington Monthly, outlines the whole Democratic approach since a week after Barack Obama took the oath of office. Even then the Democratic leadership told their members what the Republicans had in store for them in 2010. With a strategy created by Rahm Emmanual, the Democrats sought to raise funds early and often so that vulnerable members would have a cushion when the onslaught began. The whole idea was that the Democrats could maintain control of the House by a bare minimum and still claim victory.
Monday, October 11, 2010
FAIR GAME
"Rick, I'm shocked, just shocked that gambling is going on here."
Karl Rove is squealing like a stuck pig with the new ads the Democrats are running against the anonymous donors of the Rove/Chamber of Commerce network. Ads linking him to efforts to steal the election are drawing blood and have become woven in the Democratic talking points at every stop.
President Obama is busy on the hustings to stop the Great White Male riot. So far this week, he is drawing paltry crowds of 18,000 with overflow in the parking lots. President Obama has ramped up his charges against the Chamber of Commerce and the threat of foreign money in the election. And it's beginning to work.
The Washington Post and the MSM are expressing concerns about the tone of the President's attacks. I guess he's not being polite enough. Karl Rove says that Obama has an enemy list of Nixon. I find it ironic he said this on Fox News, whose audience probably thinks Richard Nixon was great. As far as I remember, Richard Nixon didn't have any corporations or wealthy people on his enemies' list and was the past master at secret corporate funding.
For full public disclosure, Obama has outsourced his enemies' list. I'm compiling it. And ,yes, Karl, you are on it--more for your role in destroying the Republican Party than any attacks on the present Administration.
The Wall Street Journal tried to come to the defense of corporations by invoking the moral equivalence argument. They point out that Labor Unions are also "internationals" and we don't know how much foreign money they pump into the elections. Unfortunately, for them, unions openly disclose their contributions and they expenditures on elections. Right now, the Chamber and Karl Rove do not. Sorry, Charlie, bad cop, no donut.
Bob Schieffer challenged David Axelrod about whether he had evidence the Chamber was using foreign money. He pushed back by saying, "it's up to the Chamber to reveal where their money is coming from to assure the public." Quite right.
This is all fair game. The Rove/Chamber money nexus represents nearly 60% of all anonymous monies in the race, the rest being used for shadowy conservative front-groups, whom no one even knows their directors.
The American people really don't care how much money is spent on the elections. They want to know where it comes from. And here the Democrats have pushed a hot button and .I think, it will pay off.
The Wall Street Journal whined that the Administration was trying to silence America's corporations. How many billions did American corporations spend to lobby against everything the Administration has been trying to do? Did anyone do anything about that?
The New York Times ran a few editorials on the need for more campiagn disclosure but they are getting a little fussy. They are saying that China is now being used as a scapegoat by the Democrats and worry about the implications of this. The Democrats have quite yet gotten into the "Yellow Peril" territory. I think a more fruitful approach would be to accent theMiddle Eastern banks and oil companies.
The Chamber actually ran an ad posting a Democratic congresswoman's home phone. I think , depending on the results on the election, there should be an effort against sitting Republican congressmen to say,"Rep. Boehner wants to pass tax cuts for the very rich, Call his boss Tom Donoghue. " Then list the President of the Chamber's home phone. This should be the M.O. following the election for the One Nation crowd. Don't even bother calling congress, just the business lobby. Make them regret their foray into covert politics.
The Onion gave me a great idea. They ran a satirical piece that someone from Patton, Boggs, a Washington law firm, was registering as a lobbyist for the American people. The fictitious person said that he thought Americans should have input in the proceedings in Congress. Great idea, I think there should be a group formed to actually register as agents of the American people.
Bill Clinton has been campaigning around the country. I caught his speech on behalf of Jack Conway in Kentucky. While never my favorite, he is a great campaigner and probably has a clearer speech on everyday talking points than even Obama. He drew out the implications of this election for the audience and pointed to the utter nonsense about Republicans being fiscally responsible. He pointed out that from Day 1 of W's administration, Republicans opened the door to massive debt by repealing the Pay-Go rules. As Clinton pointed out, that we wom't have any debt if this had been observed. He even pointed out that his Administration had paid down the national debt by $600 billion during his administration and that we would have been debt-free by 2015--the first time since Andrew Jackson. He also pointed out the utter folly of extending the tax cuts for the wealthy. But he made a better case than Obama. He pointed out that the tax cuts for those earning over 3 million a year would range from $300,000 to 800,000 and add enormous amounts to the debt.
The other major point he made was that America does have the money to make the necessary changes to compete in the world and provide a decent living for everyone. He also pointed out to the students that they have a personal stake in this election because of the changes in the student loan programs, which caps the % you must pay your debt back to your annual salary. So you will be able to pay back your loans no matter what job you take. He also made the point that the low fixed rate loans were only possible because Obama cut out the banks from administering them. The intrusion of the private banks in this business only occurred during the last Administration.
Then Clinton went after Rand Paul and stated the obvious--he has no track record and all his ideas have been tried and been catastrophic failures so why would you vote for him. He urged voters not to be "had", don't be hoodwinked by the anonymous ads. Then he ramped up about the Repubican sponsored ad campaign.
The weekend has been basically positive for the Democrats. Finally, they have hit on points that make thier case--maybe too late-- but at least they are fighting back. They are not willing to be swift-boated and Willy Horton'ed again. For the first time in a while, I feel Democrats are not being defensive but going on the offense.
Republicans are stepping in dog-poop as Nancy Pelosi said. One of their candidates, who is given the term "Contender", the second tier after "Top Gun", was caught playing WWII enactment dressed in a Waffen SS uniform. A millionaire from Ohio, he likes to be a member of the Waffen unit that defended Hitler's bunker and his enactment group is connected to a European white supremacist group that honors Germany during WWII. He had the uncanny knack of playing Waffen SS on a campaign weekend. Nice timing. Nice uniform.
Democratic Governor Manchin is fighting back in spades against Raese's "hick" ads in West Virgina. He calls the Republican out on using Philadelphia actors for portraying West Virginians and says that Raese doesn't respect you. Maybe because he lives in Florida and his wife is registered in Florida and can't vote for him. "Why should we vote for him?" The second aid starts with Governor Manchin's NRA endorsement and shows him shooting a bulls-eye and reverting to a more Blue Dog stance, citing that he sued the Obama's EPA for his enforcement of clean air standards that affect the coal industry.
Observers are saying that Sharron Angle and Diaper Dave Vitter are running the most racist ads on the campaign. But in Nevada, this is backfiring. A poll released over the weekend seemed to back up John Ralston's claim that Harry Reid is walking away with the election. This runs counter to the media narrative.
Roxeanne Conlin in Iowa is running against Grassley, the Republican, and is not considered a competitive candidate, although she is a good one. However, she reports what observers are noticing that early voting in Iowa and the rest of the Midwest indicate large Democratic leads, which is a positive note. We are talking in terms of 2-3 to 1 leads in small states. This runs contrary to the larger East Coast media's stories. This may not help Conlin but it may be decisive in House races.
A Race which one should watch is Pennsylvania's Senate race between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey. Joe Sestak is painting Toomey as identical to Rick Santorum, the ultra-right social conservative. But the thing to look for here is the stealth GOTV campaign by the Obama people among the black community. I have yet to read anything about how this was done during the 2008 campaign. Barack Obama, fighting the race card then, conducted a massive campaign among the black media and radio stations that never surfaced in the major media. From the rally yesterday in Philadelphia, I got a hint that this was revving up against.
Will the millenials vote? In the 2006 elections, only 25% of them voted, while 51% voted in 2008. Republican strategists have written them off this year, but even if they bump the 25 to 30%, this will make a difference in close elections.
The same is true with Hispanics. The Hispanic vote will become crucial in Nevada, Colorado, California and even in Illinois, where a sizable Hispanic community lives. It looks like anti-immigration positions by Republicans in Colorado, Nevada and California will hurt the GOP.
The Washington Post wrote about Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign in Alaska. The portrait is of a Senate candidate finally freed from constraint and enjoying her campaign. The more Alaskans see Joe Miller they distrust him and fear that the state will lose out on all the federal goodies they received. Alaska is the most subsidized state in terms of Federal aid in the union. Murkowski is openly running on the earmarks she has brought in. The Washington Post has her tied or leading in polls but Mudflats website showed that the write-in process will make it hard for her to win. Receiving no coverage anywhere is the Democratic candidate, who was tied with Murkowski the polls.
One problem race for Democrats looks like the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi contest in Washington state. For reasons that are unknown--Dino Rossi has pulled in the lead. However, Murray is playing hard-hitting ads on Rossi's dubious business practices.
Alex Sink is ramping up her attack ads on Rick Scott for his role in Medicare fraud and his dubious business career. Lamentably she is only a few points in the lead, given the fact her opponent really should be in jail.
Some of the major networks are claiming the Democrats are being McCarthyite in their attacks on the business interests behind the Republicans. I thought the teabaggers liked Joe McCarthy. Certainly Fox News and Sarah Palin do.
For the next few weeks, it's going to be rock'em-sock'em. If the GOP manages to take back the House, don't expect them to have an easy time of it once the secret money theme sticks. I can't imagine Democratic and labor activists are going to stop hitting them when they try to repeal the legislation of the past 18 months.
Remember Vote Early and Often.
Karl Rove is squealing like a stuck pig with the new ads the Democrats are running against the anonymous donors of the Rove/Chamber of Commerce network. Ads linking him to efforts to steal the election are drawing blood and have become woven in the Democratic talking points at every stop.
President Obama is busy on the hustings to stop the Great White Male riot. So far this week, he is drawing paltry crowds of 18,000 with overflow in the parking lots. President Obama has ramped up his charges against the Chamber of Commerce and the threat of foreign money in the election. And it's beginning to work.
The Washington Post and the MSM are expressing concerns about the tone of the President's attacks. I guess he's not being polite enough. Karl Rove says that Obama has an enemy list of Nixon. I find it ironic he said this on Fox News, whose audience probably thinks Richard Nixon was great. As far as I remember, Richard Nixon didn't have any corporations or wealthy people on his enemies' list and was the past master at secret corporate funding.
For full public disclosure, Obama has outsourced his enemies' list. I'm compiling it. And ,yes, Karl, you are on it--more for your role in destroying the Republican Party than any attacks on the present Administration.
The Wall Street Journal tried to come to the defense of corporations by invoking the moral equivalence argument. They point out that Labor Unions are also "internationals" and we don't know how much foreign money they pump into the elections. Unfortunately, for them, unions openly disclose their contributions and they expenditures on elections. Right now, the Chamber and Karl Rove do not. Sorry, Charlie, bad cop, no donut.
Bob Schieffer challenged David Axelrod about whether he had evidence the Chamber was using foreign money. He pushed back by saying, "it's up to the Chamber to reveal where their money is coming from to assure the public." Quite right.
This is all fair game. The Rove/Chamber money nexus represents nearly 60% of all anonymous monies in the race, the rest being used for shadowy conservative front-groups, whom no one even knows their directors.
The American people really don't care how much money is spent on the elections. They want to know where it comes from. And here the Democrats have pushed a hot button and .I think, it will pay off.
The Wall Street Journal whined that the Administration was trying to silence America's corporations. How many billions did American corporations spend to lobby against everything the Administration has been trying to do? Did anyone do anything about that?
The New York Times ran a few editorials on the need for more campiagn disclosure but they are getting a little fussy. They are saying that China is now being used as a scapegoat by the Democrats and worry about the implications of this. The Democrats have quite yet gotten into the "Yellow Peril" territory. I think a more fruitful approach would be to accent theMiddle Eastern banks and oil companies.
The Chamber actually ran an ad posting a Democratic congresswoman's home phone. I think , depending on the results on the election, there should be an effort against sitting Republican congressmen to say,"Rep. Boehner wants to pass tax cuts for the very rich, Call his boss Tom Donoghue. " Then list the President of the Chamber's home phone. This should be the M.O. following the election for the One Nation crowd. Don't even bother calling congress, just the business lobby. Make them regret their foray into covert politics.
The Onion gave me a great idea. They ran a satirical piece that someone from Patton, Boggs, a Washington law firm, was registering as a lobbyist for the American people. The fictitious person said that he thought Americans should have input in the proceedings in Congress. Great idea, I think there should be a group formed to actually register as agents of the American people.
Bill Clinton has been campaigning around the country. I caught his speech on behalf of Jack Conway in Kentucky. While never my favorite, he is a great campaigner and probably has a clearer speech on everyday talking points than even Obama. He drew out the implications of this election for the audience and pointed to the utter nonsense about Republicans being fiscally responsible. He pointed out that from Day 1 of W's administration, Republicans opened the door to massive debt by repealing the Pay-Go rules. As Clinton pointed out, that we wom't have any debt if this had been observed. He even pointed out that his Administration had paid down the national debt by $600 billion during his administration and that we would have been debt-free by 2015--the first time since Andrew Jackson. He also pointed out the utter folly of extending the tax cuts for the wealthy. But he made a better case than Obama. He pointed out that the tax cuts for those earning over 3 million a year would range from $300,000 to 800,000 and add enormous amounts to the debt.
The other major point he made was that America does have the money to make the necessary changes to compete in the world and provide a decent living for everyone. He also pointed out to the students that they have a personal stake in this election because of the changes in the student loan programs, which caps the % you must pay your debt back to your annual salary. So you will be able to pay back your loans no matter what job you take. He also made the point that the low fixed rate loans were only possible because Obama cut out the banks from administering them. The intrusion of the private banks in this business only occurred during the last Administration.
Then Clinton went after Rand Paul and stated the obvious--he has no track record and all his ideas have been tried and been catastrophic failures so why would you vote for him. He urged voters not to be "had", don't be hoodwinked by the anonymous ads. Then he ramped up about the Repubican sponsored ad campaign.
The weekend has been basically positive for the Democrats. Finally, they have hit on points that make thier case--maybe too late-- but at least they are fighting back. They are not willing to be swift-boated and Willy Horton'ed again. For the first time in a while, I feel Democrats are not being defensive but going on the offense.
Republicans are stepping in dog-poop as Nancy Pelosi said. One of their candidates, who is given the term "Contender", the second tier after "Top Gun", was caught playing WWII enactment dressed in a Waffen SS uniform. A millionaire from Ohio, he likes to be a member of the Waffen unit that defended Hitler's bunker and his enactment group is connected to a European white supremacist group that honors Germany during WWII. He had the uncanny knack of playing Waffen SS on a campaign weekend. Nice timing. Nice uniform.
Democratic Governor Manchin is fighting back in spades against Raese's "hick" ads in West Virgina. He calls the Republican out on using Philadelphia actors for portraying West Virginians and says that Raese doesn't respect you. Maybe because he lives in Florida and his wife is registered in Florida and can't vote for him. "Why should we vote for him?" The second aid starts with Governor Manchin's NRA endorsement and shows him shooting a bulls-eye and reverting to a more Blue Dog stance, citing that he sued the Obama's EPA for his enforcement of clean air standards that affect the coal industry.
Observers are saying that Sharron Angle and Diaper Dave Vitter are running the most racist ads on the campaign. But in Nevada, this is backfiring. A poll released over the weekend seemed to back up John Ralston's claim that Harry Reid is walking away with the election. This runs counter to the media narrative.
Roxeanne Conlin in Iowa is running against Grassley, the Republican, and is not considered a competitive candidate, although she is a good one. However, she reports what observers are noticing that early voting in Iowa and the rest of the Midwest indicate large Democratic leads, which is a positive note. We are talking in terms of 2-3 to 1 leads in small states. This runs contrary to the larger East Coast media's stories. This may not help Conlin but it may be decisive in House races.
A Race which one should watch is Pennsylvania's Senate race between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey. Joe Sestak is painting Toomey as identical to Rick Santorum, the ultra-right social conservative. But the thing to look for here is the stealth GOTV campaign by the Obama people among the black community. I have yet to read anything about how this was done during the 2008 campaign. Barack Obama, fighting the race card then, conducted a massive campaign among the black media and radio stations that never surfaced in the major media. From the rally yesterday in Philadelphia, I got a hint that this was revving up against.
Will the millenials vote? In the 2006 elections, only 25% of them voted, while 51% voted in 2008. Republican strategists have written them off this year, but even if they bump the 25 to 30%, this will make a difference in close elections.
The same is true with Hispanics. The Hispanic vote will become crucial in Nevada, Colorado, California and even in Illinois, where a sizable Hispanic community lives. It looks like anti-immigration positions by Republicans in Colorado, Nevada and California will hurt the GOP.
The Washington Post wrote about Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign in Alaska. The portrait is of a Senate candidate finally freed from constraint and enjoying her campaign. The more Alaskans see Joe Miller they distrust him and fear that the state will lose out on all the federal goodies they received. Alaska is the most subsidized state in terms of Federal aid in the union. Murkowski is openly running on the earmarks she has brought in. The Washington Post has her tied or leading in polls but Mudflats website showed that the write-in process will make it hard for her to win. Receiving no coverage anywhere is the Democratic candidate, who was tied with Murkowski the polls.
One problem race for Democrats looks like the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi contest in Washington state. For reasons that are unknown--Dino Rossi has pulled in the lead. However, Murray is playing hard-hitting ads on Rossi's dubious business practices.
Alex Sink is ramping up her attack ads on Rick Scott for his role in Medicare fraud and his dubious business career. Lamentably she is only a few points in the lead, given the fact her opponent really should be in jail.
Some of the major networks are claiming the Democrats are being McCarthyite in their attacks on the business interests behind the Republicans. I thought the teabaggers liked Joe McCarthy. Certainly Fox News and Sarah Palin do.
For the next few weeks, it's going to be rock'em-sock'em. If the GOP manages to take back the House, don't expect them to have an easy time of it once the secret money theme sticks. I can't imagine Democratic and labor activists are going to stop hitting them when they try to repeal the legislation of the past 18 months.
Remember Vote Early and Often.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Pulpit Freedom Sunday
The Alliance Defense Fund, a Christian Right advocacy group, is sponsoringPulpit Freedom Sunday, where at least 100 evangelical pastors will defy the law and endorse candiates from their pulpits. In 1954, at the request of then Senator Lyndon Johnson, the IRS rules prohibits any speech from a church pulpit favoring or opposing a political candidate. Churches whose preachers do endorse a candidate risk losing their tax-exempt status. During the last presidential campaign, ministers supporting John McCain did the same thing but the only one government investigation was dropped. The ADF is trying to provoke a court case so they can overturn the rule saying that "The IRS should not be used as a political tool to advance the agenda of racial groups bent on silencing the voice of the church.." Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention opposes this whole stunt.
The latest Smithsonian magazine has an excellent article on the history of religious intolerance in America and how and why the Founding Fathers really did create a secular Republic, contrary to the opinions of Glenn Beck, Newt Gingrich and David Barton. The piece documents anti-Catholic and anti-Mormon riots in 19th century America. Interesting new fact was that one of the reasons Benedict Arnold became a turncoat was his disgust with America being backed by Catholic France.
CBN, the Christian Broadcasting Network, is whipped up about the plot by Muslims to introduce sharia law and destroy American civilization, whatever is left of it. What was a very fringe idea has now moved into the mainstream with New Gingrich and Frank Gaffney and Daniel Pipes flogging this goofy notion.
This week will be Bob Woodward week with his book on the Obama Administration's internal debates on Afghanistan. From the early excerpts, the reader must really ask serious questions about General Petraeus and his strange view that our children will be fighting in Afghanistan and that the war is not one that can be won but must be fought continually. This represents how far the notion of the Long War has permeated the defense establishment. In an age where a computer-virus is knocking out Iran's nuclear program, the United States with its COIN strategy is re-living our Vietnam counter-insurgency plan. The massive disconnect between our embrace of certain 21st century technology and strategies, which were based on military losses in Vietnam, Algeria, and Malaysia is a bit bizarre and disconcerting.
Read an early memo against the war in Iraq yesterday that quoted a Pentagon paper on establishing an American empire, a document purportedly written in 2001. I would love to know where that is and will be trying to locate it. Other recently-released dcuments released tis past week show that Dick Cheney requested a contingency plan for an invasion of Iraq on January 9,2001, right before George W took the oath of office, and that other documents showed internal arguments for the invasion during the first few months of the Administration. What remains a mystery is that we know Al Qaeda had nothing to do with Iraq, despite video footage of George W. actually arguing at length this was so, and we know, except some of the extreme right, that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, so what was the invasion meant to do and what purpose was it to serve. Cheap psychologizing that son wanted to better Dad just doesn't fly.
Hopefully, some of the major participants after their self-defenses will reveal some of this in their memoirs. From Dick Cheney,we hope to hear his view of the energy empire, although I doubt whether this will be mentioned. Rather we will be treated to a sophisticated defense of rendition, torture and the wonders of defending America after 9/11 but not before. George W.'s memoirs due next month will probably drip some truths but inadvertantly. My money is on Donald Rumsfeld, whose memoir will be out next year. The reason I suggest this is that Douglas Feith's memoir was an honest attempt, in my opinion, to detail the origins of the war and the fights among the neo-cons. His boss is known to be much more blunt as we saw during the invasion. From the documents released this month, Rumsfeld argued that an invasion of Iraq would cement ties with Israel and strengthen America's position in the region as a whole. It's the last point I want to see elaborated on. Also, Rumsfeld was a major proponent of the 40-year war against Islamic fundamentalism, an idea whose time should never have come.
We will be dealing with the aftermath of this past Administration for decades. Unfortunately, the Obama Administration has been defending the worst national security laws and winning in our courts. There are areas of our civil liberties now, which appear to be gone for good. Paul Craig Roberts, a former assistant secretary of Treasury during President Reagan, just wrote a piece "It's Official--the United States is a Police State!". A conservative libertarian type of guy, this article is not an Obama-bashing piece but a critique of the continuation of the Bush suppression of civil liberties under this Administration. It's a good summary of the insanity of the Patriot Act and all the noxious laws that were generated from it. Only this week, the FBI raided war protestors homes and offices in Minneapolis and Chicago with the view of determining whether the groups gave "material assistance to terrorist groups." Apparently , the group was more focused on Colombia than Afghanistan. But Roberts shows that the all-expansive definitions of the anti-terrroism laws are a direct and present danger to dissent.
Meanwhile the mid-terms, Congressman DeFazio from Oregon did a great it--accompanied by video cameras he decided to find the group Concerned Taxpayers, who are running smear ads against him. He found a Washington townhouse with office equipment and only one person home--a person who identified himself as with the conservative Jamestown Foundation, which was first funded to assist Soviet defectors and later branched out into defense strategy policy. But DeFazio had the address right and the phone had a answering machine for Concerned Taxpayers. Why Defazio was p.o-ed was that the ads against him ties him to Nancy Pelosi, whom he is frequently on record as wanting to replace a Speaker of the House. He succeded in getting the group to pull their ads but still no one knows whose behind them.
Think Progress continues to detail the Koch-funded groups trying to engage in election fraud in Wisconsin. Maybe if enough of these incidents can be documented, advocacy groups might want to press for the RICO act being used against the Koch industries--seizing them on the suspicion of corruption. No shareholders would be hurt.
Will Mitt Romney be hurt if his dear friend from Bain, Queen Meg Whitman loses. Apparently, Whitman spokespeople are trying to get people to accept the Field Poll showing a tied race instead of the couple this week that shows Governor Brown with a five-six point lead. On the Senate side, a large majority of Californians want their Senator to support Obama agenda. Obama still rides high in California, which puts a damper on the Republican challenges.
Democrats are engaged in a two-prong strategy for mid-terms--one a national thrust of emphasizing the positive and the second one, a local strategy of hammering specific Republican candidates as unworthy of any elected office. Blue Dog Democrats got Nancy Pelosi's permission to distance themselves from her because their competition was composed on people fleeing bill collectors, tax evaders, a couple who are under investigation for business fraud. The issue in these races is to create the big Ick factor--"this guy is too sleazy to represent you." Given the roster of Republican candidates, who can blame them. If you are Nita Lowey running in Westchester, New York, even though you are liberal, don't you think you should hammer on the fact that the Republican in suburban New York is an anti-semite, a white separatist and writes positively about eugenics? Forget Obamacare and the Pledge, it's obvious your opponent shouldn't be allowed near any public office.
Dana Milbank got in a good line against Tom Kaine. Tom Kaine appeared on CNN and said that the Republicans merging with the Tea Party had become the Danner Party." Milbank said this remark insulted cannibals everywhere.
In Kentucky, recent polls have Jack Conway with the momentum against Rand Paul. Conway has pulled within 3 points. The last Senate race here proved to be a cliff-hanger, only decided in the early morning. Mike Huckabee is in Kentucky campaigning for Paul today. But Paul shot himself in the foot again by saving that seniors should pay more for Medicare. And his Hitler remark this past week may signal to voters "Not Ready for Prime Time."
Florida papers, after several investigative reports into Marco Rubio's AMEX use and his role in various boondoogle projects, are demanding he come clean on his financial dealings. This may have come too late as Rubio seems to have a commanding lead against Crist and Meeks.
The New York Times covers Karl Rove's parallel secret GOP. Democrats go nuts every time Rove's name is mentioned because of his swiftboating techniques and other dirty tricks over the years. But remember he lost the 2000 election, barely won in 2004 because of voter suppression efforts in Ohio and lost massively in 2006. This is not a great mastermind. I just wonder whether his billionaire's Club provides for him to return the money if he fails.
Believe it or not a Fox News contributor has written a piece in the Daily Beast, which documents why this year is not 1994. She says that last time Clinton and Tom Foley, the speaker of the House, did not see the Republican wave coming and that Republicans had not been in charge of the House in 40 years so Americans did not know what to expect. She also said that all the seats lost by Democrats existed in districts won by the Republican presidential candidate. This year only half the seats projected for a Democratic lose are in districts won by McCain.
Remember the first teabagger fight in NY-25, the huge congressional district that stretches across the state? Well, teabagger millionaire Hoffman has lost the Republican line this year and will be running as a Conservative. This was the seat the Republicans have held since the Civil War and lost last year. Well, it looks like they will lose it again. It's seats like these where Republicans need to pick up steam to take over the House.
I thought about Nate Silver's projection that Republicans would win with a 12-seat majority. From just the rumor mill, there are at least 12 Republicans with serious ethics issues. Before they even get to conduct all their investigations, first we will have a foodfight over leadership and then you could have the revelations about these cases. Any resignations or timely retirements would then throw the House open again.
The latest Smithsonian magazine has an excellent article on the history of religious intolerance in America and how and why the Founding Fathers really did create a secular Republic, contrary to the opinions of Glenn Beck, Newt Gingrich and David Barton. The piece documents anti-Catholic and anti-Mormon riots in 19th century America. Interesting new fact was that one of the reasons Benedict Arnold became a turncoat was his disgust with America being backed by Catholic France.
CBN, the Christian Broadcasting Network, is whipped up about the plot by Muslims to introduce sharia law and destroy American civilization, whatever is left of it. What was a very fringe idea has now moved into the mainstream with New Gingrich and Frank Gaffney and Daniel Pipes flogging this goofy notion.
This week will be Bob Woodward week with his book on the Obama Administration's internal debates on Afghanistan. From the early excerpts, the reader must really ask serious questions about General Petraeus and his strange view that our children will be fighting in Afghanistan and that the war is not one that can be won but must be fought continually. This represents how far the notion of the Long War has permeated the defense establishment. In an age where a computer-virus is knocking out Iran's nuclear program, the United States with its COIN strategy is re-living our Vietnam counter-insurgency plan. The massive disconnect between our embrace of certain 21st century technology and strategies, which were based on military losses in Vietnam, Algeria, and Malaysia is a bit bizarre and disconcerting.
Read an early memo against the war in Iraq yesterday that quoted a Pentagon paper on establishing an American empire, a document purportedly written in 2001. I would love to know where that is and will be trying to locate it. Other recently-released dcuments released tis past week show that Dick Cheney requested a contingency plan for an invasion of Iraq on January 9,2001, right before George W took the oath of office, and that other documents showed internal arguments for the invasion during the first few months of the Administration. What remains a mystery is that we know Al Qaeda had nothing to do with Iraq, despite video footage of George W. actually arguing at length this was so, and we know, except some of the extreme right, that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, so what was the invasion meant to do and what purpose was it to serve. Cheap psychologizing that son wanted to better Dad just doesn't fly.
Hopefully, some of the major participants after their self-defenses will reveal some of this in their memoirs. From Dick Cheney,we hope to hear his view of the energy empire, although I doubt whether this will be mentioned. Rather we will be treated to a sophisticated defense of rendition, torture and the wonders of defending America after 9/11 but not before. George W.'s memoirs due next month will probably drip some truths but inadvertantly. My money is on Donald Rumsfeld, whose memoir will be out next year. The reason I suggest this is that Douglas Feith's memoir was an honest attempt, in my opinion, to detail the origins of the war and the fights among the neo-cons. His boss is known to be much more blunt as we saw during the invasion. From the documents released this month, Rumsfeld argued that an invasion of Iraq would cement ties with Israel and strengthen America's position in the region as a whole. It's the last point I want to see elaborated on. Also, Rumsfeld was a major proponent of the 40-year war against Islamic fundamentalism, an idea whose time should never have come.
We will be dealing with the aftermath of this past Administration for decades. Unfortunately, the Obama Administration has been defending the worst national security laws and winning in our courts. There are areas of our civil liberties now, which appear to be gone for good. Paul Craig Roberts, a former assistant secretary of Treasury during President Reagan, just wrote a piece "It's Official--the United States is a Police State!". A conservative libertarian type of guy, this article is not an Obama-bashing piece but a critique of the continuation of the Bush suppression of civil liberties under this Administration. It's a good summary of the insanity of the Patriot Act and all the noxious laws that were generated from it. Only this week, the FBI raided war protestors homes and offices in Minneapolis and Chicago with the view of determining whether the groups gave "material assistance to terrorist groups." Apparently , the group was more focused on Colombia than Afghanistan. But Roberts shows that the all-expansive definitions of the anti-terrroism laws are a direct and present danger to dissent.
Meanwhile the mid-terms, Congressman DeFazio from Oregon did a great it--accompanied by video cameras he decided to find the group Concerned Taxpayers, who are running smear ads against him. He found a Washington townhouse with office equipment and only one person home--a person who identified himself as with the conservative Jamestown Foundation, which was first funded to assist Soviet defectors and later branched out into defense strategy policy. But DeFazio had the address right and the phone had a answering machine for Concerned Taxpayers. Why Defazio was p.o-ed was that the ads against him ties him to Nancy Pelosi, whom he is frequently on record as wanting to replace a Speaker of the House. He succeded in getting the group to pull their ads but still no one knows whose behind them.
Think Progress continues to detail the Koch-funded groups trying to engage in election fraud in Wisconsin. Maybe if enough of these incidents can be documented, advocacy groups might want to press for the RICO act being used against the Koch industries--seizing them on the suspicion of corruption. No shareholders would be hurt.
Will Mitt Romney be hurt if his dear friend from Bain, Queen Meg Whitman loses. Apparently, Whitman spokespeople are trying to get people to accept the Field Poll showing a tied race instead of the couple this week that shows Governor Brown with a five-six point lead. On the Senate side, a large majority of Californians want their Senator to support Obama agenda. Obama still rides high in California, which puts a damper on the Republican challenges.
Democrats are engaged in a two-prong strategy for mid-terms--one a national thrust of emphasizing the positive and the second one, a local strategy of hammering specific Republican candidates as unworthy of any elected office. Blue Dog Democrats got Nancy Pelosi's permission to distance themselves from her because their competition was composed on people fleeing bill collectors, tax evaders, a couple who are under investigation for business fraud. The issue in these races is to create the big Ick factor--"this guy is too sleazy to represent you." Given the roster of Republican candidates, who can blame them. If you are Nita Lowey running in Westchester, New York, even though you are liberal, don't you think you should hammer on the fact that the Republican in suburban New York is an anti-semite, a white separatist and writes positively about eugenics? Forget Obamacare and the Pledge, it's obvious your opponent shouldn't be allowed near any public office.
Dana Milbank got in a good line against Tom Kaine. Tom Kaine appeared on CNN and said that the Republicans merging with the Tea Party had become the Danner Party." Milbank said this remark insulted cannibals everywhere.
In Kentucky, recent polls have Jack Conway with the momentum against Rand Paul. Conway has pulled within 3 points. The last Senate race here proved to be a cliff-hanger, only decided in the early morning. Mike Huckabee is in Kentucky campaigning for Paul today. But Paul shot himself in the foot again by saving that seniors should pay more for Medicare. And his Hitler remark this past week may signal to voters "Not Ready for Prime Time."
Florida papers, after several investigative reports into Marco Rubio's AMEX use and his role in various boondoogle projects, are demanding he come clean on his financial dealings. This may have come too late as Rubio seems to have a commanding lead against Crist and Meeks.
The New York Times covers Karl Rove's parallel secret GOP. Democrats go nuts every time Rove's name is mentioned because of his swiftboating techniques and other dirty tricks over the years. But remember he lost the 2000 election, barely won in 2004 because of voter suppression efforts in Ohio and lost massively in 2006. This is not a great mastermind. I just wonder whether his billionaire's Club provides for him to return the money if he fails.
Believe it or not a Fox News contributor has written a piece in the Daily Beast, which documents why this year is not 1994. She says that last time Clinton and Tom Foley, the speaker of the House, did not see the Republican wave coming and that Republicans had not been in charge of the House in 40 years so Americans did not know what to expect. She also said that all the seats lost by Democrats existed in districts won by the Republican presidential candidate. This year only half the seats projected for a Democratic lose are in districts won by McCain.
Remember the first teabagger fight in NY-25, the huge congressional district that stretches across the state? Well, teabagger millionaire Hoffman has lost the Republican line this year and will be running as a Conservative. This was the seat the Republicans have held since the Civil War and lost last year. Well, it looks like they will lose it again. It's seats like these where Republicans need to pick up steam to take over the House.
I thought about Nate Silver's projection that Republicans would win with a 12-seat majority. From just the rumor mill, there are at least 12 Republicans with serious ethics issues. Before they even get to conduct all their investigations, first we will have a foodfight over leadership and then you could have the revelations about these cases. Any resignations or timely retirements would then throw the House open again.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Election News
Howard Dean has sent out an e-mail about two candidates he's backing this year--Jack Conway in Kentucky and Roxanne Conlin of Iowa. You might add Elaine Marshall in North Carolina to the list of worthy Senate candidates. Jack Conway has attracted attention because he's running against libertarian-Tea Party favorite Rand Paul. Roxanne Conlin is an attorney, and former Attorney-General of Iowa who is challenging Senator Grassley, who just voted against Wall Street Reform as well as Healthcare Reform. Grassley also has the distinction of showcasing stimulus projects in Iowa as his own, when he voted against the package. Conlin is a longshot but Grassley's state approval rate has dipped below 50% and he can be had. Elaine Marshall is another attractive candidate in North Carolina. She grew up on a farm and encouraged by 4H she was the first of her family to go to college. Again as an attorney-general, she actually defended the public interest. Her opponent is Senator Burr ,who has amassed a $6 million war chest. But all three--Conway, Conlin and Marshall make excellent candidates and have run ads that are professional but straight forward. If they can keep their opponents' lead below 10 in the next two months, they have a real shot.
Karl Rove's group is running ads against Harry Reid protesting that Harry hasn't brought home enough of the stimlus bacon to Nevada. I guess the fact that Sharron Angle says her job will not be to create jobs in Nevada, this must leave voters confused. Does Karl mean that Nevada should have a better Democratic Senator? Harry has taken a 7 point lead over Angle in the race according to the Mason-Dixon poll.
I thought it was interesting that Charlie Cook has switched his ratings on the Diaper Dave Vitter race to "leaning Republican". Apparently, Vitter appointing an aide who stabbed his girlfriend as someone in charge of "women's affairs" finally provoked a full slate of primary challengers. The idea that Charlie Melancon ,the Democrat, has a shot at the Louisiana seat is rather surprising and welcomed news.
I'm surprised that Democrats are anticipating Republican attack lines better than they used to. In Ohio, Democrats have jumped John Kasich, who used to brag about his work on Wall Street but now claims he just ran a two-man office for Lehman Brothers in Columbus. The Democrats pre-emptive ad has neutralized Kasich's attempt to minimize his involvement with the Wall Street scandal. Likewise, in Illinois, Democrats have badly wounded Republican favorite for Senate Mark Kirk by pointing out his inconsistencies on his war record. Indeed, the candidate will not even speak to the press. The Democrats destroyed Sue Lowden in Nevada by highlighting her chicken barter idea for healthcare. Now in Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley is in retreat as he is trying to avoid discussing any issues when Democrats and the press started raising questions about what in the state budget he would cut if elected Governor. The same seems to apply to Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, the former owner of the World Wrestling Federation. She had been given a free pass but now questions are being asked about her stands on issues. The local newspaper even dug up her investments in oil companies dealing with Iran.
President Obama has come out in a campaign mode by addressing Republican obstructionism head-on as in his weekly television address. Perhaps the most effective campaigner from the White House so far has been Joe Biden. He likened the newfound concern of Republicans on the national debt as "arsonists expressing concerns about fire safety". Biden has been one of the best salesmen for the benefits of the stimulus package and the laundry list of achievements of the Administration. My problem is that he has oversold the amount of new jobs being created, which may come back and bite the Democrats.
The DNC circulated a memo this week written by Brad Woodhouse, their Communications Director, on "Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in their Proper Perspective". Their basic aim was to calm Democrats down about a possible repeat of 1994 or 2006 when the party in power lost Congress. They claim that there is greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in the Democratic leadership than for the party in power in either of those election cycles.
President Obama is much more popular than President Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994. It also can be said he's more popular than Reagan in 1982, another serious recession year.
More voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust the Republicans to do so. This is always the missing element in news coverage of the polls that point out the lack of confidence in President Obama and the Democrats. The bottom rung here has been occupied by the Republicans at about 26% for the last 18 months.
On the economy--which is rated the number 1 concern by voters--Democrats are trusted more than Republicans 42%-34%. This is a similar margin to the Democrat win in 2006 and a larger margin than the Republicans had in their 1994 win. This is a key number to get a handle on what will happen in the fall.
Voters also trust Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move the country forward in other ways. A Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that "supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment" while just 24% said they were less likely. The Washington Post found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery, as against 37% who opposed.
According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance, while 44% said they would vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. In another poll, a majority now support the healthcare bill.
Given the recent Wall Street Reform bill, Bloomberg found that 45% of voters are more likely to suppport a Congressional candidate who supports "tougher regulations on Wall Street firms" while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.
The generic congressional polls show leads either way. The DNC uses the latest Washington Post poll that showed Republicans with a 47-46% edge. In contrast, the 2006 polls, when democrats won back the House showed Democrats with a 54-41% lead over Republicans.
In short, the conclusion of a Republican takeover of Congress at this stage are not borne out by the polling data, even though all of the Washington pundits make it a foregone conclusion. For the past year, I have been pointing out Republican approval ratings in Congress are abysmal. Republican leadership in both the Senate and the House are lucky on any given week to rise above 30%. I agree that this year is chaotic with the teabagging phenomenon and the rise of the Hard Right but I have yet to see evidence of this promised tsunami of reaction.
This past week the Republican leadership may have been courting their donors for more campaign funds with calls to repeal Wall Street Reform and a moratorium on federal regulations. But I can't believe this gives them any popular momentum. Notice for instance how quiet the Tea baggers have been over the Wall Street Reform bill. Only the corporate funded branch in D.C. mounted half-hearted protests. I also sense that the national debt issue will not redound to their favor. Several polls I've written about indicate that people are not buying the need to cut social security or Medicare. Instead, they are walking over the Republican national security creds by demanding cuts in defense and war.
I still say wait until after Labor Day before we know what's really happening. I'm basically pleased to see that various polls indicate that Americans, however stressed they are, are keeping level heads on the political front. I also believe that the flood of corporate money to Republicans is not going to be a political asset but a liability this year.
Karl Rove's group is running ads against Harry Reid protesting that Harry hasn't brought home enough of the stimlus bacon to Nevada. I guess the fact that Sharron Angle says her job will not be to create jobs in Nevada, this must leave voters confused. Does Karl mean that Nevada should have a better Democratic Senator? Harry has taken a 7 point lead over Angle in the race according to the Mason-Dixon poll.
I thought it was interesting that Charlie Cook has switched his ratings on the Diaper Dave Vitter race to "leaning Republican". Apparently, Vitter appointing an aide who stabbed his girlfriend as someone in charge of "women's affairs" finally provoked a full slate of primary challengers. The idea that Charlie Melancon ,the Democrat, has a shot at the Louisiana seat is rather surprising and welcomed news.
I'm surprised that Democrats are anticipating Republican attack lines better than they used to. In Ohio, Democrats have jumped John Kasich, who used to brag about his work on Wall Street but now claims he just ran a two-man office for Lehman Brothers in Columbus. The Democrats pre-emptive ad has neutralized Kasich's attempt to minimize his involvement with the Wall Street scandal. Likewise, in Illinois, Democrats have badly wounded Republican favorite for Senate Mark Kirk by pointing out his inconsistencies on his war record. Indeed, the candidate will not even speak to the press. The Democrats destroyed Sue Lowden in Nevada by highlighting her chicken barter idea for healthcare. Now in Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley is in retreat as he is trying to avoid discussing any issues when Democrats and the press started raising questions about what in the state budget he would cut if elected Governor. The same seems to apply to Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, the former owner of the World Wrestling Federation. She had been given a free pass but now questions are being asked about her stands on issues. The local newspaper even dug up her investments in oil companies dealing with Iran.
President Obama has come out in a campaign mode by addressing Republican obstructionism head-on as in his weekly television address. Perhaps the most effective campaigner from the White House so far has been Joe Biden. He likened the newfound concern of Republicans on the national debt as "arsonists expressing concerns about fire safety". Biden has been one of the best salesmen for the benefits of the stimulus package and the laundry list of achievements of the Administration. My problem is that he has oversold the amount of new jobs being created, which may come back and bite the Democrats.
The DNC circulated a memo this week written by Brad Woodhouse, their Communications Director, on "Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in their Proper Perspective". Their basic aim was to calm Democrats down about a possible repeat of 1994 or 2006 when the party in power lost Congress. They claim that there is greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in the Democratic leadership than for the party in power in either of those election cycles.
President Obama is much more popular than President Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994. It also can be said he's more popular than Reagan in 1982, another serious recession year.
More voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust the Republicans to do so. This is always the missing element in news coverage of the polls that point out the lack of confidence in President Obama and the Democrats. The bottom rung here has been occupied by the Republicans at about 26% for the last 18 months.
On the economy--which is rated the number 1 concern by voters--Democrats are trusted more than Republicans 42%-34%. This is a similar margin to the Democrat win in 2006 and a larger margin than the Republicans had in their 1994 win. This is a key number to get a handle on what will happen in the fall.
Voters also trust Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move the country forward in other ways. A Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that "supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment" while just 24% said they were less likely. The Washington Post found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery, as against 37% who opposed.
According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance, while 44% said they would vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. In another poll, a majority now support the healthcare bill.
Given the recent Wall Street Reform bill, Bloomberg found that 45% of voters are more likely to suppport a Congressional candidate who supports "tougher regulations on Wall Street firms" while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.
The generic congressional polls show leads either way. The DNC uses the latest Washington Post poll that showed Republicans with a 47-46% edge. In contrast, the 2006 polls, when democrats won back the House showed Democrats with a 54-41% lead over Republicans.
In short, the conclusion of a Republican takeover of Congress at this stage are not borne out by the polling data, even though all of the Washington pundits make it a foregone conclusion. For the past year, I have been pointing out Republican approval ratings in Congress are abysmal. Republican leadership in both the Senate and the House are lucky on any given week to rise above 30%. I agree that this year is chaotic with the teabagging phenomenon and the rise of the Hard Right but I have yet to see evidence of this promised tsunami of reaction.
This past week the Republican leadership may have been courting their donors for more campaign funds with calls to repeal Wall Street Reform and a moratorium on federal regulations. But I can't believe this gives them any popular momentum. Notice for instance how quiet the Tea baggers have been over the Wall Street Reform bill. Only the corporate funded branch in D.C. mounted half-hearted protests. I also sense that the national debt issue will not redound to their favor. Several polls I've written about indicate that people are not buying the need to cut social security or Medicare. Instead, they are walking over the Republican national security creds by demanding cuts in defense and war.
I still say wait until after Labor Day before we know what's really happening. I'm basically pleased to see that various polls indicate that Americans, however stressed they are, are keeping level heads on the political front. I also believe that the flood of corporate money to Republicans is not going to be a political asset but a liability this year.
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