Unbelievable:We Are Just Over A Year from the Presidential Election

++It is that time of the season when I start checking in with Nate Silver and Sam Wang. I don't have the emotional connection with this presidential election as I have with Barack Obama in 2008 and in 2012. 2008 was the height of my involvement in presidential politics when I became one of the first financial supporter of his campaign and saw him here in Alexandria. That guy was and is very special. 

++Nate cites the betting polls that puts Hillary Clinton at 80% to win the Democratic nomination, Nate says he would put her higher than that but not at 100%. Hillary Clinton has been laying down the foundation for both the primary but more importantly the national election. As Nate writes at FiveThrtyEight that Hillary has more endorsements from elected Democrats than any non-incumbent in modern history. 

++The polls that I have been posting the past few months show that Hillary maintains a commanding lead ,despite Bernie's growing popularity and fund-raising capabilities. The polls show also that once we head to the southern primaries Bernie disappears and Hillary dominates, unless Joe Biden enters the race.

++The problem now is that Hillary is spending almost every cent she raises. Sanders has surpassed Obama in having over 1million small donors at such an early stage. David Axelrod points out that while Hillary's donors are tapped out at the maximum limits, Bernie's donors can keep giving through the election cycle.

++Now Joe Biden is certain to miss the cut-off for the CNN debate. But more importantly there are actual time constraints on things like filing papers for the primaries and raising money. Nate can't make up his mind about whether Joe will run because part of the Democratic Party wants a fallback position but that would send out an unnecessary message that Hillary's campaign is in danger. 

++Nate is saying that Martin O'Malley just hasn't caught on as an alternative despite his record as Governor of Maryland and that Bernie Sanders is too far left for the party at the end of the day. 

++Hillary Clinton may get an unexpected boost from her Benghazi testimony later this month. Partly because a human being confronting the beast and handling the questions well will neutralize this as an issue and remind us that she is a very capable woman who knows her international affairs. The other is simply that Kevin McCarthy led the cat out of the bag by saying the Benghazi Committee was created to ding Hillary's presidential campaign. Hillary could do with becoming the underdog--since we seemed to have lost sight that she is the first American woman who actually stands a chance of being President. 

++The latter point can not be underestimated. In 2008, we had the decision of choosing our "firsts". For someone like myself, I never thought a black man would be elected President in my lifetime. I remembered the consternation both the GOP and the Democratic Party had over the prospect of General Colin Powell running for President. His wife Alma prevailed fearing assassination, something that has lingered as a possibility the entire Obama presidency.


++A "first woman" we expected relatively shortly. Our country had not been engulfed in the raging war against women that we have seen the last few years. We saw women winning and ably governing at every level of government. It was really about whom to pick. I always thought the Republicans would have been first out of the gate with talents like Liddy Dole,Chistie Todd Whitman and Olympia Snowe,she of the great name. But Republican politics turned dark.

++Hillary's candidacy in 2008 had the lingering aspects of the Clinton's getting even for the past and George W. Bush's dubious election in 2000. But Hillary's candidacy also had the aftermath of the right's campaigns against both Clintons. Obama was a fresh,eloquent face the country needed.

++Hillary herself had an image that turned all but the feminist off. She appeared to be a careerist and always possessing the ambition to become President. That somehow is a negative. Also the coterie of people around her turned off other insiders. It's like the flip-side of the Bush insiders who are arrogant beyond belief.

++The problem with Hillary Clinton is that we now just accept her and we also simply accept that a woman will be president--big deal. The policy implications, however, of a first woman president are a big deal and should 't be forgotten in this campaign.  And this doesn't have to do with overt issues like Planned Parenthood because the issues for working and professional women are more complex and have real world consequences for our society. I don't know why Hillary downplays this, other than wanted to avoid a backlash.  Because she is absolutely right on all details. 

++One of Bill Clinton's early loves and later extra-marital affairs used to call me during his presidency to trash talk Hillary. There were some fun stories about Bill and this woman out for night drives in a convertible and Elvis playing on the radio. Part of this woman's resentment of Hillary was a Southerner jealous of a Yankee taking her beau and her catty remarks all got around to the issue of body image. 

++But once the 1990 scandals over the Clintons died down, Hillary gained the appropriate respect as a hard-working politician with a great attention to detail. When she was chosen as a member of the cabinet of rivals by President Obama that reputation grew at the State Department and in Washington. And it was clear that the insiders on both sides of the aisle saw her an inevitable. 

++The comparable male politician to this was Senator Al Gore. In his case, his political lineage and his working his way up the ladder led to the belief "He felt entitled to the presidency , which may have slightly damaged him in the 2000 Presidential disaster.

++But Hillary's problem is slightly different. She has been accepted as presidential timber so long she is almost regarded as a male politician and the uniqueness of her as the First Woman president has been diminished.

++The question is whether the country wants to relive the 1990s and whether the attacks against her will be too demoralizing to Democratic and independent voters as to hurt her chance of success.

++Barack Obama at least gave you the sense of being the ultimate underdog and outsider whose every primary win was an awesome victory. I remember all the times he was ten points behind and if it was only a week out I got used to him pulling it off. In a way, this helped build the image of momentum and the real thing itself. Citizen involvement in the campaign grew as he keep surmounting the odds to the nomination and then to the Presidency.

++The question if whether Hillary can ignite that momentum during the next year. Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama but his campaign right now has the illusion of duplicating Obama's 2008 campaign. 

++I have a sense that Hillary  is comfortable running a conventional political campaign . After all, she can't well run as an insurgent since she has been accepted so long as the once inevitable. Instead, she has put all the set pieces in motion--the local committees, the endorsements and also soliciting union support early. 

++We will see how she does in the debate. I hope her earthy laugh comes back. Because her contribution to our debate so far is to urge American "to have more fun." I think this a more profound comment than a quick quip. It is absolutely dreary out here.

More Good News For John McCain--Hillary Doomed

++The press read the new Quinnipiac to say Biden more competitive than Clinton against leading Republicans. Or Biden outperforms Hillary in general elections.

++Matt Yglesias has a humorous take on these stories at The VOX.

++What did the poll actually say? Hillary leads a three person race for the Democratic nomination by 45 to Sanders'22 and Biden's 18. 

++For the general election, Clinton beats Bush Head to Head, she beats Rubio head to head, and she beats Trump head to head. If Trump runs as an independent, she wins in a landslide. They didn't poll against Walker and other Republicans. 

++Yeah, Joe Biden sort of does a little better head to head. 

++A new New Hampshire poll does the same trick with Hillary going head to head against the whole GOP crew. She beats everyone handily but loses by 1 pt to John Kasich. Amazing when you think of it--to wipe out an entire slate.

++Hillary's SuperPac launched its first ad today in Spanish that focused on the Donald,Jeb, and Walker talking about immigrants and "anchor babies".

++Hillary Clinton attacks the GOP candidates today as having attitudes toward women like terrorists. The GOP went wild in reaction.

++Hillary Clinton's support group led by Brock petitioned Trey Gowdy to release his e-mails on the Benghazi panel, including instructions from the RNC and his promises not to raise funds on the inquiry. The answer--Crickets.

++With the DNC about to meet in Minnesota, Mrs. Clinton cut short her vacation to barnstorm through the Midwest. Today, she gave a sensible talk about immigration policy to rural Iowans which drew great applause and supported the subsidy for ethanol (Ugh). The idea is to head to Minnesota to prove her campaign is on track and heading in the right direction.

++The Clinton headquarters in Brooklyn are having the big donors in this weekend to persuade them everything is fine.

++The RNC is lamely trig to say her demand for gun control after the assassinations of the news people where in Virginia is trying to distract us from the scandal of the e-mails. Now the caravan has moved on to bring attention to her assistant. The press wants a scalp. 

++Hillary is tryng to stem the Biden talk. Joltin' Joe says he might not have the energy for a campaign after his family is so banged up after Beau's death. The press made it like President Obama endorsed Biden when all the President said he would stand in the way and that Biden was very qualified for the job. 

++The only negative news is that Hillary's approval ratings have taken a beating but still exceed all Republicans.

++As Rude Pundit put it all the Clinton scandals finally boiled down to Bill getting a blow job and lying about it. Why Hillary has to carry this is part because the press loathes her and she it. 

++But so far Hillary maintains sizable leads in both the primary and in the general.

++In 2008 Obama took her in the caucuses and the official delegates. She won't make that mistake again. She has lined up significant official endorsements,including Tom Vilsack, formerly Governor of Iowa as well as Senators and representatives. She has built up a firewall for the March 1 Super Tuesday primaries, where her campaign expects to deliver the knock out blow.

++She needs some momentum. How about a new slogan "Supreme Court". 

Obama To Give 5 million A Raise

++President Obama is going to announce tomorrow his new guidelines for overtime pay, which will affect some 5 million people. Last year he ordered Labor Secretary Perez to review overtime laws with the view to alter payments to those earning $55,000 or less.

++Steve Benen pipes up with an analysis of last week's Pew poll which shows that Obama's approval ratings around the word are up and that majorities in Africa and Europe believe he tries to do the right thing. His marks increased in India. Benen point is that the reality is totally contradictory to claims by GOP candidates.

++The Whale is going to announce tomorrow at a school in New Jersey.  Ironic, heh. Christie to announce in a school when he gutted New Jersey's educational budget.

++NBC fired the Donald for his racist remarks about Mexicans . The Donald in Iowa says he will have to change his hairstyle when he is elected President because he won't have as much time to spend on it. He says he will probably comb it back. 

++Ben Carson admitted he really didn't want to run for President. I guess The devil made him do it. Now what's the excuse for the other 15 candidates in all. Yes, there are 16 GOP candidates for President--among the known. There are hundreds of lesser name people.

++We are lucky that Steve Benen picked up in the 2012 cycle that Mitt Romney lied all the time. This was a great contribution to political education. But what to make of Scott Walker? He brazenly lies about his record in Wisconsin and actually boasted in a fund-raiser that he created so many jobs. The guy is pathological. 

++Talk about not there. Jeb! says that the problems in Baltimore and Ferguson were caused by the lack of mentoring. How about talking about all the blacks who are incarcerated? Think they are free and about to mentor? Jeb! is going to travel to Charleston to meet with six black pastors. I am sure he will convey his condolences. 

++Jeb! has drawn the attention of the Imperial Post for his history of shady business deals with his family connections. 

++The Washington Monthly has a piece about how to gauge the top-tier political candidates. That is judge who they are hiring and their track record. That should tell you about their strategy. Walker has hired Joni Ernst gang in Iowa to project his competitiveness in the race. Jeb is hiring TV guys to maintain a long-term strategy. Marco Rubio's hires show someone who wants to maintain flexibility yet project his popularity.

++Meanwhile Hillary is trucking along with a defense of Obamacare and healthcare in general and applause for the marriage equality decision by the Supreme Court. Progressive critics say that her vote for the Iraq war and her defense of traditional marriage will hurt her. I don't thinks so.

++Conservatives are thrilled that FOX continues its coverage of # Benghazi!. Today's Business section had a long piece of the arms shipments by the CIA into LIbya during the war to overthrow Qaddafhi. Somehow this was criminal and linked to Hillary. 

++The Bernie surge continues. Bernie draws larger and larger crowds speaking his populist message.