Larry Sabato's Senate

++Nate Silver at 538.com had a new Senate projection yesterday that shows the Republicans winning 5.7 seats in the Senate (he explains how this works) and barely reaching their goal of taking the Senate. It is a good read about how to evaluate polls and what to expect. But we are a long way away yet as Silver makes clear.

++Larry Sabato at Crystal Ball has his projections for the Senate. He is at 48 to 48 with 4 toss-ups. He says that Republicans will flip West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana. His toss-ups are Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina. Interestingly in Nate Silver's projections, he muses about Joe Biden as President of the Senate.

++Below the radar, Charlie Crist has taken a beating in Florida with the tidal wave of ads against him by Rich Scott. Once in a sizable lead,it is tied 42-42. The only good news is that the large number of undecideds really, really hate Scott.

Princeton Consortium

 ++Sam Wang leaves it at President Obama with 332 Electoral votes, Romney at 206. Obama's chances at re-election are at 90%.

++Read Nate Silver's 538 column today in the New York Times. Nate does a recap of the presidential races this century and the outcomes with the polling at this stage of the campaign. This does't bode well for Romney. Nate has Obama's re-election at 77.6%.

++We have two job reports left before the election,three debates between the presidential nominees, one with the vice presidential nominees and the mysterious overseas October Surprise.