Last polls of the Evening

++It will take a few days before we know whether the debate was a one off Black Swan event which upends the whole election. Tomorrow NBC releases its swing state polls as does Quinnipiac. Even at Pollster, Obama still leads with 286 Electoral votes but tomorrow the polls may show steady erosion in the President's position. The Obama campaign shared with the National Journal their internal polls which showed the President up within a margin of error in the swing states. But their sudden openness about this shows how tight the race has become.

++What makes it more frustrating is that the proliferation of polls makes it hard to distinguish the good from the bad and mediocre. You should be aware that Gallup, besides putting on its LV filter, which was faulty last election, has adopted a 50-50 methodology of landlines and cellphones, which should fine-tune their results. Pollsters themselves are dumbfounded by Suffolk University pollster saying they weren't going to poll Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because Obama didn't have a chance to win. Others suggest they ran out of money.

++What baffles me is the acquiescence on behalf of the media to accept Romney's endless lying and evasions on virtually every issue. The subtext of this election campaign is "the Black Man cleaned up the white boys' mess now they want back into the sandbox." The recent unemployment numbers--both federal and Gallup indicates the economy is just beginning to recover from the most awesome drop since the Great Depression. I don't need to say what different achievements President Obama has done to merit re-election. But there is an undertone to this campaign that the four-year barrage of the Republicans against him is paying some dividends now. For all this period they have denigrated him and anything he has done or tried to do. And now the Romney campaign even goes further to blame him for things like not getting the farm bill done which was the fault of the House Republicans. If the Republicans had allowed a vote on the Jobs Bill and the Veterans Jobs Bill,we would be down to 6.3-6.8 unemployment and the Obama Administration would have to be seen as an unvarnished success. This could not be allowed to happen. 

++What Romney's victory in the debate accomplished was allow voters the luxury of believing his misrepresentations of Obama's positions and his own and to unleash the hidden resentment that a black man is President. It is OK to now vote against Obama even though you didn't want to last time. 

++The consequences of that ,in my opinion, will be awful. Both Romney and Obama know that the economy is set to take off and whoever is President then will get full credit. That is why American corporations with trillions in the bank have withheld investment through the Obama years. If you have read my blog in the past I noted when Mitch McConnell and John Boehner visited Wall Street during the time of the stimulus and pleaded American corporations not to invest and aid the President. But what is most pernicious will be the continued and long-term military involvement of the United States in the Middle East. What will come back for the United States will be the old economy, not a new one, and America will be sorely diminished as a Great Power, while the rest of the world moves forward.

++So let's look at the mishmash of polls tonight:
Fox News Romney 46- Obama 45
IBD/TIPP  Romney 48.7-Obama 43.7

Zogby: Ohio Obama 46 to Romney 42.
Rasmussen: Wisconsin: Obama 51 to Romney 49.
                  New Hampshire: Obama 48 to Romney 48
                    Nevada: Obama 51 to Romney 47
Survey USA  Nevada: Obama 47 to Romney 46
University of North Florida: Obama 49 to 45
Siena: Pennsylvania:  Obama 43 to Romney 40.

++Tomorrow's debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. Biden is an expert debater but also someone who can argue the populist line. He has to enlarge his arguments on behalf of the President to go beyond the auto industry and killing bin Laden to argue for the other achievements of the administration. But he has to lay out the case against Romney and Ryan and their habit of lying. He has to blast Ryan for his budget and its implications. He has to lay the defense cuts on Ryan and tell the audience that the Romney campaign has been lying they were Obama's fault when Paul Ryan himself wrote them into the budget. He also has to fend off the new line that the Democrats rammed through healthcare reform and avoided the Wyden proposal because they accepted over 200 amendments by Republicans, who did not vote for the bill. He also has to go after Romney and Ryan over reproductive health issues, which Obama sadly neglected in the first debate. And he also has to go after Romney and Ryan on foreign policy. The administration can not play defense. Everytime they did that during the last four years it hasn't worked. 

Election Madness

++Between the right-wing e-mails and the Democratic hysteria, you would think we are all going nuts. Here's a little factoid. Today's Gallup poll has President Obama's approval rating at 53%. No incumbent has ever lost with an approval rating of 49% or higher.

++No Republican has ever won the White House after losing his state. In this case, Romney is losing Massachusetts by over 30%. Maybe history will be changed this year.

++Other factors to look at. Voter registration numbers. Democrats lead in Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina. Republicans lead in Colorado and New Hampshire. Early Voting numbers. Iowa--Democrats lead by 57-25. Ohio--Obama 59 to 39. 

++CNN Ohio poll--Obama 51 to Romney 47. Obama among registered voters 53 to 43. Survey USA Ohio poll Obama by 1. In the Survey USA Ohio poll Obama leads by 17 points with cellphone users. Columbus/NBC poll on Ohio: Obama 45 to Romney 44.

++Today's Gallup poll. Remember yesterday Gallup turned on its Likely Voter filter. Today, Romney and Obama are tied at 48%, while among registered voters Obama has a 50-45 lead. 

++Rasmussen tracking poll Romney 48 to Obama 47 and 1% other. 

++Yougov national poll--Obama 49 to Romney 46 among likely voters.

++Rasmussen state polls. New Mexico Obama at 54 to Romney 43. Pennsylvania Obama 51 to Romney 46. Colorado Obama 49 to Romney 48. Nevada 47 to 47. Florida Obama 49 to Romney 45.

++One strange event happened yesterday as Suffolk University's pollster appeared on Bill O'Reilly and said they were stopping polling in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida because there was no way Obama could win these states. 

++Democrats believe that Romney pulling staff from Pennsylvania represented that he was folding his operations there. No a few staffers were sent to Ohio, although in my view they should fold up their camp there.

++Yesterday's UMUR poll of New Hampshire has Obama leading 47 to Romney's 43.

++Rasmussen yesterday has a poll on who do you think will win. 55% for Obama. 

++ABC/Washington Post yesterday has a poll on favorability. Obama 55 Romney 47.

++Rand Tracking poll asked state voters who would win in their state:
Florida: Obama 52 to Romney 40.
Ohio:    Obama 47 to Romney 45
Pennsylvania: Obama 61 to Romney 39.

++ARG poll national had Romney winning 50 to 46.

++Yesterday's Reuter/Ipsos poll had the race tied at 45-45, but Obama had a 25% advantage in Likeability and 14% advantage in caring for issues that affect me.

++Yesterday's Road to 270 election simulator had the race Democrats 304 EV and Republicans 234. But the state breakdown was intriguing. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado go to the Republicans, Obama wins Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. I would have thought differently.

++Intratrade had Obama's odds at 61%.