Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Showing posts with label Reuters/Ipsos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reuters/Ipsos. Show all posts
Friday, November 4, 2016
Thursday, November 3, 2016
REUTERS/IPSOS
Likely Voters:
Clinton 45%
Trump 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
Registered:
Clinton 45%
Trump 36%
Johnson 6%
Stein 4%
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Reuters/Ipsos Tracking Poll
Registered;
Clinton 43%
Trump 34%
Likely:
Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
4-Way:
Registered:
Clinton 42%
Trump 34%
Likely:
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%
Clinton 43%
Trump 34%
Likely:
Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
4-Way:
Registered:
Clinton 42%
Trump 34%
Likely:
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%
Saturday, October 22, 2016
REUTERS /IPSOS PROJECTION
Hillary Clinton has 95% chance to win.
Clinton 326 Electoral Votes, Trump 212.
Clinton 326 Electoral Votes, Trump 212.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Friday, September 16, 2016
Saturday, September 10, 2016
REUTERS/IPSOS SORT OF POLL
++Reuters/IPSOS did a state of the nation in August which showed Hillary with a large lead and 95% chance of winning by 108 electoral votes. They say her lead is slipping. They say Ohio and Florida are not longer certain and that Michigan and North Carolina are tops-ups.
++So the einsteins at Reuters say Hillary clinton only has a 83% chance to win by a margin of 47 electoral votes. Isn't that would it appears among the aggregators anyway?
++So the einsteins at Reuters say Hillary clinton only has a 83% chance to win by a margin of 47 electoral votes. Isn't that would it appears among the aggregators anyway?
Friday, October 16, 2015
Monday, March 30, 2015
Tomorrow Deadline
++The State Department said that Iran had reneged on sending the uranium to Russia. Then later in the day it claimed this was an option.
++Russian foreign minister Lavrov left the meeting mid-day and said he would return tomorrow is a deal is ready
++Haaretz spent the day showing how Israel was heckling from the sidelines while the negotiators tried to develop the winning formula.
++Bibi said today that the United States had joined the Iran-Laussanne-Yemen axis.
++Very Republican of him. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that one-third of the GOP believes Obama poses the most imminent threat to the United States. 27% believe Khameni,25% Believe Putin,23% Assad. Obama is the champ at 34%.
++Vladimir Putin showed up in Egypt and expressed support for an independent Palestine with a capital in Eastern Jerusalem.
++The Arab states decided to create a single armed force to attack threats in the region.
++Josh Marshall at TalkingPoints refers to Bibi's concern that his coalition will alienate the world.
++Hillary Clinton said she wanted Israeli relations on a constructive footing.
++Congressional Democrats have been trying to talk Obama down from his animus toward Bibi.
++Congressional Republicans are in Israel getting an earful about the deal.
++There are only three elements remaining to the deal.But you never know. It could collapse tomorrow.
++Russian foreign minister Lavrov left the meeting mid-day and said he would return tomorrow is a deal is ready
++Haaretz spent the day showing how Israel was heckling from the sidelines while the negotiators tried to develop the winning formula.
++Bibi said today that the United States had joined the Iran-Laussanne-Yemen axis.
++Very Republican of him. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that one-third of the GOP believes Obama poses the most imminent threat to the United States. 27% believe Khameni,25% Believe Putin,23% Assad. Obama is the champ at 34%.
++Vladimir Putin showed up in Egypt and expressed support for an independent Palestine with a capital in Eastern Jerusalem.
++The Arab states decided to create a single armed force to attack threats in the region.
++Josh Marshall at TalkingPoints refers to Bibi's concern that his coalition will alienate the world.
++Hillary Clinton said she wanted Israeli relations on a constructive footing.
++Congressional Democrats have been trying to talk Obama down from his animus toward Bibi.
++Congressional Republicans are in Israel getting an earful about the deal.
++There are only three elements remaining to the deal.But you never know. It could collapse tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
More Polls on the last day of October
++74% approve of Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy--only 44% can say the same for Willard.
++EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan. Obama 48 to Romney 42.
++Reuters/Ipsos national: Obama 47 to Romney 46.
52% expect Obama to win; 30% expect Romney.
Ohio: Obama 48 to Romney 45.
Virginia: Obama 48 to Romney 46. Among registered voters Obama 54 to Romney 37. So it is done to GOTV.
Florida: Obama 47 to Romney 47.
Colorado: Romney 46 to 45.
++Polls out of Michigan and Wisconsin suggest that Romney really isn't trying to enlarge the map but spend his excess money. Both campaigns have reserved $40 million each for the last few days.
++EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan. Obama 48 to Romney 42.
++Reuters/Ipsos national: Obama 47 to Romney 46.
52% expect Obama to win; 30% expect Romney.
Ohio: Obama 48 to Romney 45.
Virginia: Obama 48 to Romney 46. Among registered voters Obama 54 to Romney 37. So it is done to GOTV.
Florida: Obama 47 to Romney 47.
Colorado: Romney 46 to 45.
++Polls out of Michigan and Wisconsin suggest that Romney really isn't trying to enlarge the map but spend his excess money. Both campaigns have reserved $40 million each for the last few days.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Souls to the Polls
++From his bunker in Princeton, Sam Wang says it is Obama 305 and 233 Romney. Meta-margin is +2.20. Probabilities--Fading--91%, Predictive at 98%. Obama's electoral vote range is 287 to 327.
++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.
++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.
++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.
++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.
++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.
++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39.
++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.
++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.
++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.
++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.
++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.
++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.
++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.
++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.
++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.
++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson.
++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.
++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.
++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.
++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.
++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.
++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.
++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.
++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.
++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.
++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39.
++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.
++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.
++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.
++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.
++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.
++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.
++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.
++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.
++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.
++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson.
++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.
++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.
++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.
++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
You Are Like A Hurricane
++Hunkering down do Hurricane Sandy. Everybody's nerves are on end. You can tell, even Sam Wang tweeted this morning,"Don't give a flying f*&ck what a single poll says. Gallup--especially."
++Wang has Obama at 299, Romney at 239. the meta-margin at 2.04. Random Drift at 89% and Prediction at 97% certainty.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 49 to Romney 46.
++ABC/Washington Post--48 Obama, 49 Romney.
++Priorities 2012 mirrors Post poll,which showed Obama with a lead. Obama 49 to Romney 46.
++Electoral Vote.com has two toss-ups left--Iowa and Virginia. Virginia looks like it is fading away and Tom Kaine looks like he will be the next Senator.
++Watch for a surprise in North Carolina election evening. Last time Obama won a microscopic victory. But the news from the Obama campaign is almost startling this time. Early Voting, especially by African-Americans and young people dwarf 2008, and new registrations give Democrats a huge lead. I've written this state off to Romney since the beginning. But I am not so sure now.
++Nevada early voting still looks good for Obama. The Repubicans would have to take a 5pt lead in Washpoe County to have a shot. And there is no evidence of it.
++President Obama will return to Washington to monitor the Hurricane on Monday. He will appear at a rally in Youngstown,Ohio and then return home.
++Ann Romney is so helpful. She says her husband will do away with the public school system in America.
++Angus Reid is the new Senator from Maine. The Republicans withdrew so the Harley-driving ex-Governor will be an independent and likely to caucus with the Democrats.
++Watch for Bob Kerrey to make a real run for Senator from Nebraska. What looked like a lark has turned out to be a close campaign.
++Fox News is running Benghazi 24-7 and setting up the issue for impeachment of President Obama. John McCain helpfully pointed out that it is worse than Watergate. Expect Issa to hop on this. But first let's get Obama re-elected.
++If you want a reason to vote for President Obama, listen to his speech in Nashua, New Hampshire yesterday. He hit all the bases. The rally was the biggest in that state's history.
++Mitt Romney actually cut an add where he said that Jeep in Toledo, Ohio would ship jobs to China. This despite Chrysler issuing a statement saying such talk is fantasy. In fact, they are putting an additional 1,000 to work in Michigan.
++So Obama has to manage Hurricane Sandy well and get through the next jobs report.
++Wang has Obama at 299, Romney at 239. the meta-margin at 2.04. Random Drift at 89% and Prediction at 97% certainty.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 49 to Romney 46.
++ABC/Washington Post--48 Obama, 49 Romney.
++Priorities 2012 mirrors Post poll,which showed Obama with a lead. Obama 49 to Romney 46.
++Electoral Vote.com has two toss-ups left--Iowa and Virginia. Virginia looks like it is fading away and Tom Kaine looks like he will be the next Senator.
++Watch for a surprise in North Carolina election evening. Last time Obama won a microscopic victory. But the news from the Obama campaign is almost startling this time. Early Voting, especially by African-Americans and young people dwarf 2008, and new registrations give Democrats a huge lead. I've written this state off to Romney since the beginning. But I am not so sure now.
++Nevada early voting still looks good for Obama. The Repubicans would have to take a 5pt lead in Washpoe County to have a shot. And there is no evidence of it.
++President Obama will return to Washington to monitor the Hurricane on Monday. He will appear at a rally in Youngstown,Ohio and then return home.
++Ann Romney is so helpful. She says her husband will do away with the public school system in America.
++Angus Reid is the new Senator from Maine. The Republicans withdrew so the Harley-driving ex-Governor will be an independent and likely to caucus with the Democrats.
++Watch for Bob Kerrey to make a real run for Senator from Nebraska. What looked like a lark has turned out to be a close campaign.
++Fox News is running Benghazi 24-7 and setting up the issue for impeachment of President Obama. John McCain helpfully pointed out that it is worse than Watergate. Expect Issa to hop on this. But first let's get Obama re-elected.
++If you want a reason to vote for President Obama, listen to his speech in Nashua, New Hampshire yesterday. He hit all the bases. The rally was the biggest in that state's history.
++Mitt Romney actually cut an add where he said that Jeep in Toledo, Ohio would ship jobs to China. This despite Chrysler issuing a statement saying such talk is fantasy. In fact, they are putting an additional 1,000 to work in Michigan.
++So Obama has to manage Hurricane Sandy well and get through the next jobs report.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Monday, October 15, 2012
Good Vibrations
++I'm hanging on to Allan Lichtman's prediction about President Obama's re-election. I haven't seen any more keys drop so we venture into the last days before the election waiting on another Jobs Report,some disaster abroad and the barrage of dog whistles on race and the avalanche of attack ads.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Random Polls
++NBC/WSJ reports that 18% of Ohio has voted early. Obama has 63%. What this says is that the enthusiasm gap isn't there. The African-American community has come out in force around Cleveland and areas that the Secretary of State tried to prohibit a month ago. This doesn't tell you the result but how well the Obama campaign is doing.
++Gallup tracking--Obama 50 to 45 Romney in registered voters. Obama 48 to Romney 48 likely voter. This poll indicates an enthusiasm gap. Such a wide discrepancy between registered and likely is trouble for the Obama campaign.
++Rasmussen--Obama 48, Romney 47 with 2% for others and only 3% undecided. I find his margin of error rate a little high.
++Reuters/Ipsos Romney 47 to Obama 44.
++Rasmussen Ohio : Obama 48 to Romney 47. I thought Scott Rasmussen appearing on his website to explain Romney's chances and how close certain Swing States were , frankly strange.
++Wisconsin: Obama 50 to 46 Romney. Obama has a 53% approval rating.
++Wisconsin: The Quinnipiac poll I missed this morning. President Obama 51 to Romney 47.
++Nate the Great Silver is supposed to update his blog by mid-afternoon. Last night Obama fell below 300 EV for the first time and the odds of his winning went down into the mid-60s. Silver is wrestling with the strange issue of reconciling the national polls that show Romney is leading to the state polls which show he is closing the gap but still trailing.
++Gallup tracking--Obama 50 to 45 Romney in registered voters. Obama 48 to Romney 48 likely voter. This poll indicates an enthusiasm gap. Such a wide discrepancy between registered and likely is trouble for the Obama campaign.
++Rasmussen--Obama 48, Romney 47 with 2% for others and only 3% undecided. I find his margin of error rate a little high.
++Reuters/Ipsos Romney 47 to Obama 44.
++Rasmussen Ohio : Obama 48 to Romney 47. I thought Scott Rasmussen appearing on his website to explain Romney's chances and how close certain Swing States were , frankly strange.
++Wisconsin: Obama 50 to 46 Romney. Obama has a 53% approval rating.
++Wisconsin: The Quinnipiac poll I missed this morning. President Obama 51 to Romney 47.
++Nate the Great Silver is supposed to update his blog by mid-afternoon. Last night Obama fell below 300 EV for the first time and the odds of his winning went down into the mid-60s. Silver is wrestling with the strange issue of reconciling the national polls that show Romney is leading to the state polls which show he is closing the gap but still trailing.
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