++Clinton 46%
Trump 33%
Johnson 14%
Stein 2%
Showing posts with label Survey USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Survey USA. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Instant Polls
Binders full of women was the correct term.
Polls:
CNN: 46% Obama 39% Romney Remember 8 pts more Republicans in the crowd.
73% thought Obama did a better job than expected.
CBS Instapoll--Obama 37% Romney 30% and tied 33%
Survey USA --Obama 56% Romney 32% 12% tie. Indepedents 44-44.
PPP Colorado:
Obama 48 to Romney 44
Obama 58 to Romney 36 Independents.
Obama 61 to Romney 32--Hispanics.
Obama 63 to Romney 27--Moderates.
Apparently , on immigration Obama won over the crowd.
Polls:
CNN: 46% Obama 39% Romney Remember 8 pts more Republicans in the crowd.
73% thought Obama did a better job than expected.
CBS Instapoll--Obama 37% Romney 30% and tied 33%
Survey USA --Obama 56% Romney 32% 12% tie. Indepedents 44-44.
PPP Colorado:
Obama 48 to Romney 44
Obama 58 to Romney 36 Independents.
Obama 61 to Romney 32--Hispanics.
Obama 63 to Romney 27--Moderates.
Apparently , on immigration Obama won over the crowd.
Catch the New Media Twist
++Survey USA says that Obama is only 14 points above Romney in Washington State. Obama leads 54-40. Romney has picked up six points.
++I guess Rasmussen was trying to find out the same thing but alas in Massachusetts Obama is only 15 points above Romney--Obama 57 to Romney 42.
++Chris Matthews on Hardball whines that something "historic" is dying today, referring to the Obama presidency. He is talking about how the women are now supporting Romney.
++The conservatives are whispering that Obama has an October Surprise--a military action in Syria, Libya or Iran. Since forces have been put on alert in Libya, I would expect he will take out whoever is responsible for the killing of the Ambassador.
++Kevin Drum over at Mother Jones is busy pacifying everyone by reminding politicals that this was always going to be a close election, not 2008 repeated. There is just too much money against Obama and the full array of authoritarian institutions--the Catholic hierarchy, all the fundamentalist churches,all of Wall Street, the banks and large corporations. Or as Sam Wang says at Princeton Consortium that this is Bush-Kerry at the fifth degree.
++I guess Rasmussen was trying to find out the same thing but alas in Massachusetts Obama is only 15 points above Romney--Obama 57 to Romney 42.
++Chris Matthews on Hardball whines that something "historic" is dying today, referring to the Obama presidency. He is talking about how the women are now supporting Romney.
++The conservatives are whispering that Obama has an October Surprise--a military action in Syria, Libya or Iran. Since forces have been put on alert in Libya, I would expect he will take out whoever is responsible for the killing of the Ambassador.
++Kevin Drum over at Mother Jones is busy pacifying everyone by reminding politicals that this was always going to be a close election, not 2008 repeated. There is just too much money against Obama and the full array of authoritarian institutions--the Catholic hierarchy, all the fundamentalist churches,all of Wall Street, the banks and large corporations. Or as Sam Wang says at Princeton Consortium that this is Bush-Kerry at the fifth degree.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Last polls of the Evening
++It will take a few days before we know whether the debate was a one off Black Swan event which upends the whole election. Tomorrow NBC releases its swing state polls as does Quinnipiac. Even at Pollster, Obama still leads with 286 Electoral votes but tomorrow the polls may show steady erosion in the President's position. The Obama campaign shared with the National Journal their internal polls which showed the President up within a margin of error in the swing states. But their sudden openness about this shows how tight the race has become.
++What makes it more frustrating is that the proliferation of polls makes it hard to distinguish the good from the bad and mediocre. You should be aware that Gallup, besides putting on its LV filter, which was faulty last election, has adopted a 50-50 methodology of landlines and cellphones, which should fine-tune their results. Pollsters themselves are dumbfounded by Suffolk University pollster saying they weren't going to poll Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because Obama didn't have a chance to win. Others suggest they ran out of money.
++What baffles me is the acquiescence on behalf of the media to accept Romney's endless lying and evasions on virtually every issue. The subtext of this election campaign is "the Black Man cleaned up the white boys' mess now they want back into the sandbox." The recent unemployment numbers--both federal and Gallup indicates the economy is just beginning to recover from the most awesome drop since the Great Depression. I don't need to say what different achievements President Obama has done to merit re-election. But there is an undertone to this campaign that the four-year barrage of the Republicans against him is paying some dividends now. For all this period they have denigrated him and anything he has done or tried to do. And now the Romney campaign even goes further to blame him for things like not getting the farm bill done which was the fault of the House Republicans. If the Republicans had allowed a vote on the Jobs Bill and the Veterans Jobs Bill,we would be down to 6.3-6.8 unemployment and the Obama Administration would have to be seen as an unvarnished success. This could not be allowed to happen.
++What Romney's victory in the debate accomplished was allow voters the luxury of believing his misrepresentations of Obama's positions and his own and to unleash the hidden resentment that a black man is President. It is OK to now vote against Obama even though you didn't want to last time.
++The consequences of that ,in my opinion, will be awful. Both Romney and Obama know that the economy is set to take off and whoever is President then will get full credit. That is why American corporations with trillions in the bank have withheld investment through the Obama years. If you have read my blog in the past I noted when Mitch McConnell and John Boehner visited Wall Street during the time of the stimulus and pleaded American corporations not to invest and aid the President. But what is most pernicious will be the continued and long-term military involvement of the United States in the Middle East. What will come back for the United States will be the old economy, not a new one, and America will be sorely diminished as a Great Power, while the rest of the world moves forward.
++So let's look at the mishmash of polls tonight:
Fox News Romney 46- Obama 45
IBD/TIPP Romney 48.7-Obama 43.7
Zogby: Ohio Obama 46 to Romney 42.
Rasmussen: Wisconsin: Obama 51 to Romney 49.
New Hampshire: Obama 48 to Romney 48
Nevada: Obama 51 to Romney 47
Survey USA Nevada: Obama 47 to Romney 46
University of North Florida: Obama 49 to 45
Siena: Pennsylvania: Obama 43 to Romney 40.
++Tomorrow's debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. Biden is an expert debater but also someone who can argue the populist line. He has to enlarge his arguments on behalf of the President to go beyond the auto industry and killing bin Laden to argue for the other achievements of the administration. But he has to lay out the case against Romney and Ryan and their habit of lying. He has to blast Ryan for his budget and its implications. He has to lay the defense cuts on Ryan and tell the audience that the Romney campaign has been lying they were Obama's fault when Paul Ryan himself wrote them into the budget. He also has to fend off the new line that the Democrats rammed through healthcare reform and avoided the Wyden proposal because they accepted over 200 amendments by Republicans, who did not vote for the bill. He also has to go after Romney and Ryan over reproductive health issues, which Obama sadly neglected in the first debate. And he also has to go after Romney and Ryan on foreign policy. The administration can not play defense. Everytime they did that during the last four years it hasn't worked.
++What makes it more frustrating is that the proliferation of polls makes it hard to distinguish the good from the bad and mediocre. You should be aware that Gallup, besides putting on its LV filter, which was faulty last election, has adopted a 50-50 methodology of landlines and cellphones, which should fine-tune their results. Pollsters themselves are dumbfounded by Suffolk University pollster saying they weren't going to poll Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because Obama didn't have a chance to win. Others suggest they ran out of money.
++What baffles me is the acquiescence on behalf of the media to accept Romney's endless lying and evasions on virtually every issue. The subtext of this election campaign is "the Black Man cleaned up the white boys' mess now they want back into the sandbox." The recent unemployment numbers--both federal and Gallup indicates the economy is just beginning to recover from the most awesome drop since the Great Depression. I don't need to say what different achievements President Obama has done to merit re-election. But there is an undertone to this campaign that the four-year barrage of the Republicans against him is paying some dividends now. For all this period they have denigrated him and anything he has done or tried to do. And now the Romney campaign even goes further to blame him for things like not getting the farm bill done which was the fault of the House Republicans. If the Republicans had allowed a vote on the Jobs Bill and the Veterans Jobs Bill,we would be down to 6.3-6.8 unemployment and the Obama Administration would have to be seen as an unvarnished success. This could not be allowed to happen.
++What Romney's victory in the debate accomplished was allow voters the luxury of believing his misrepresentations of Obama's positions and his own and to unleash the hidden resentment that a black man is President. It is OK to now vote against Obama even though you didn't want to last time.
++The consequences of that ,in my opinion, will be awful. Both Romney and Obama know that the economy is set to take off and whoever is President then will get full credit. That is why American corporations with trillions in the bank have withheld investment through the Obama years. If you have read my blog in the past I noted when Mitch McConnell and John Boehner visited Wall Street during the time of the stimulus and pleaded American corporations not to invest and aid the President. But what is most pernicious will be the continued and long-term military involvement of the United States in the Middle East. What will come back for the United States will be the old economy, not a new one, and America will be sorely diminished as a Great Power, while the rest of the world moves forward.
++So let's look at the mishmash of polls tonight:
Fox News Romney 46- Obama 45
IBD/TIPP Romney 48.7-Obama 43.7
Zogby: Ohio Obama 46 to Romney 42.
Rasmussen: Wisconsin: Obama 51 to Romney 49.
New Hampshire: Obama 48 to Romney 48
Nevada: Obama 51 to Romney 47
Survey USA Nevada: Obama 47 to Romney 46
University of North Florida: Obama 49 to 45
Siena: Pennsylvania: Obama 43 to Romney 40.
++Tomorrow's debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. Biden is an expert debater but also someone who can argue the populist line. He has to enlarge his arguments on behalf of the President to go beyond the auto industry and killing bin Laden to argue for the other achievements of the administration. But he has to lay out the case against Romney and Ryan and their habit of lying. He has to blast Ryan for his budget and its implications. He has to lay the defense cuts on Ryan and tell the audience that the Romney campaign has been lying they were Obama's fault when Paul Ryan himself wrote them into the budget. He also has to fend off the new line that the Democrats rammed through healthcare reform and avoided the Wyden proposal because they accepted over 200 amendments by Republicans, who did not vote for the bill. He also has to go after Romney and Ryan over reproductive health issues, which Obama sadly neglected in the first debate. And he also has to go after Romney and Ryan on foreign policy. The administration can not play defense. Everytime they did that during the last four years it hasn't worked.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
The Pre-Debate Hysteria
++Drudge,Fox and the Daily Caller released a video of then Senator Obama talking about how the government failed the black community in New Orleans during Katrina and how the black community had to take personal responsibility to pull themselves up from poverty. The sensational bit was that he mentioned his pastor Jeremiah Wright. A slight problem with this whole video was that it was previously shown on Fox News the last election despite Sean Hannity hyping it this time as an exclusive. It was intended to provide the balance to Romney's 47% secret talk to donors. So I guess you would be surprised that the President was black.
++I actually spent time yesterday with someone who swears Romney will win in a landslide. This concerns me because this type of thinking is usually predicated on high level hijinks. It reminds me of Dick Morris talking about having seen the secret polls. The idea is that only single women will vote for Obama, the blacks will stay home because of Obama's support for same sex marriage and Hispanics--well that aren't Americans yet I guess.It doesn't matter if you refer to all the people who crunch polls for a living. If this were in the cards you would see a "silent" majority appearing on the edge of polling in registered voters which would indicate something's up. But the "silent majority" now are Obama supporters. So get out and vote.
++The biggest stunner yesterday was dropped in the late afternoon. Willard proposed limiting tax deductions to $17,000. This is at the same time the Romney campaign was bragging about winning the suburbs. To put it simply Willard's proposal would crush people earning about $150,000 a year with a house. Put together one's mortgage and property taxes on an average suburban home and you lose.
++The October surprise is supposed to be attacks by Romney on Obama's "cover-up" on the security situation in Benghazi, Libya. Unfortunately for Romney the major news outlets have already announced the surprise and President Obama has already launched a covert operation to catch the culprits. This may actually be Obama's October Surprise. It's good to know Dick Cheney has been telegraphing this.
++But never fear in the 7-11 poll, President Obama is crushing Romney 62 to 39.
++Rasmussen's tracking poll is Obama at 49 to Romney at 47.
++Survey USA --North Carolina is Obama 49 to Romney 47.
++National Journal poll provided by United Technologies has it 47 to 47 but with registered voters it is Obama 49 to 44. Hmmm.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll: Obama 49 to Romney 46. Again with registered voters 51 to 44.
++NBC/ Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Ohio: 51 to 43.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist poll Virginia Obama 48 to 46.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist poll: Florida Obama 47 to Romney 46.
++Florida --Suffolk University. Obama 48 to Romney 45.
++Ipsos/Reuters President Obama 46 to Romney 41.
++I actually spent time yesterday with someone who swears Romney will win in a landslide. This concerns me because this type of thinking is usually predicated on high level hijinks. It reminds me of Dick Morris talking about having seen the secret polls. The idea is that only single women will vote for Obama, the blacks will stay home because of Obama's support for same sex marriage and Hispanics--well that aren't Americans yet I guess.It doesn't matter if you refer to all the people who crunch polls for a living. If this were in the cards you would see a "silent" majority appearing on the edge of polling in registered voters which would indicate something's up. But the "silent majority" now are Obama supporters. So get out and vote.
++The biggest stunner yesterday was dropped in the late afternoon. Willard proposed limiting tax deductions to $17,000. This is at the same time the Romney campaign was bragging about winning the suburbs. To put it simply Willard's proposal would crush people earning about $150,000 a year with a house. Put together one's mortgage and property taxes on an average suburban home and you lose.
++The October surprise is supposed to be attacks by Romney on Obama's "cover-up" on the security situation in Benghazi, Libya. Unfortunately for Romney the major news outlets have already announced the surprise and President Obama has already launched a covert operation to catch the culprits. This may actually be Obama's October Surprise. It's good to know Dick Cheney has been telegraphing this.
++But never fear in the 7-11 poll, President Obama is crushing Romney 62 to 39.
++Rasmussen's tracking poll is Obama at 49 to Romney at 47.
++Survey USA --North Carolina is Obama 49 to Romney 47.
++National Journal poll provided by United Technologies has it 47 to 47 but with registered voters it is Obama 49 to 44. Hmmm.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll: Obama 49 to Romney 46. Again with registered voters 51 to 44.
++NBC/ Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Ohio: 51 to 43.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist poll Virginia Obama 48 to 46.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist poll: Florida Obama 47 to Romney 46.
++Florida --Suffolk University. Obama 48 to Romney 45.
++Ipsos/Reuters President Obama 46 to Romney 41.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Poll Potpourri
We've had an explosion in new polling firms this year,maybe good ,maybe not.
Coming back from the dead is Zogby, now polling for the Washington Times as JZ Analytics. He kicks off with Romney topping Obama by 43.6% to 43.2%. He does say that the enthusiasm of Obama voters is more intense than those for Romney. Zigby added Gary Johnson to the poll and it ends up Obama 44 to Romney 43 with Johnson at 2%. More than half Zogby polled expected Obama to win.
How about the Glengariff Group in Michigan? They have President Obama beating Mitt Romney 45.1 to 39.5% with 15.4% undecided.
Or how about Critical Insights in Maine. Mitt Romney has a better favorable rating than Barack Obama but loses to Obama by 50 to 42%.
Or Bloomberg Global poll of investors. President Obama wins Investors 49 to 38% because he has a better view of the economy and his re-election will bring stability and growth. Over half the investors expect him to win re-election.
Or polls of veterans in Stars and Stripes. President Obama upsets the past pattern of the military supporting Republicans. What came out was that veterans felt tired and exhausted from years of war and wanted more veterans programs. President Obama leads Romney by 44% to Romney's 37%. 18% do not have an opinion or will opt not to vote.
Survey USA on Washington State. Obama leads Romney 50 to 36. Obama won the state in 2008 by 17 points. I liked the fact that Survey USA put Ron Paul in the poll and he received 20% of the vote in a general election.
Survey USA in Minnesota has Obama 52 over Romney's 38.
Survey USA in Oregon has President Obama 47% over Romney's 43%, which shows the state is closer than expected.
Rasmussen in Wisconsin-- President Obama 49 to Romney 43.
Rasmussen in Massachusetts--President Obama 56 to Romney 35.
Or how about Landmark/Rosetta Stone in Georgia. Romney at 51% and President Obama at 40%.
No big surprises in the state polls, except the closeness of Orgeon.
How did the marriage equality question affect President Obama? Gallup and Pew both polled Americans how this would affect their attitudes to the President. I am sure few people answered honestly. 60% in Gallup's poll said wouldn't affect it, a similar percentage by Pew. Another Gallup poll showed that 51% support marriage equality.
National Tracking Polls --Rasmussen and Gallup show Romney winning, while polls like Ipsos have President Obama eight points in the lead.
Coming back from the dead is Zogby, now polling for the Washington Times as JZ Analytics. He kicks off with Romney topping Obama by 43.6% to 43.2%. He does say that the enthusiasm of Obama voters is more intense than those for Romney. Zigby added Gary Johnson to the poll and it ends up Obama 44 to Romney 43 with Johnson at 2%. More than half Zogby polled expected Obama to win.
How about the Glengariff Group in Michigan? They have President Obama beating Mitt Romney 45.1 to 39.5% with 15.4% undecided.
Or how about Critical Insights in Maine. Mitt Romney has a better favorable rating than Barack Obama but loses to Obama by 50 to 42%.
Or Bloomberg Global poll of investors. President Obama wins Investors 49 to 38% because he has a better view of the economy and his re-election will bring stability and growth. Over half the investors expect him to win re-election.
Or polls of veterans in Stars and Stripes. President Obama upsets the past pattern of the military supporting Republicans. What came out was that veterans felt tired and exhausted from years of war and wanted more veterans programs. President Obama leads Romney by 44% to Romney's 37%. 18% do not have an opinion or will opt not to vote.
Survey USA on Washington State. Obama leads Romney 50 to 36. Obama won the state in 2008 by 17 points. I liked the fact that Survey USA put Ron Paul in the poll and he received 20% of the vote in a general election.
Survey USA in Minnesota has Obama 52 over Romney's 38.
Survey USA in Oregon has President Obama 47% over Romney's 43%, which shows the state is closer than expected.
Rasmussen in Wisconsin-- President Obama 49 to Romney 43.
Rasmussen in Massachusetts--President Obama 56 to Romney 35.
Or how about Landmark/Rosetta Stone in Georgia. Romney at 51% and President Obama at 40%.
No big surprises in the state polls, except the closeness of Orgeon.
How did the marriage equality question affect President Obama? Gallup and Pew both polled Americans how this would affect their attitudes to the President. I am sure few people answered honestly. 60% in Gallup's poll said wouldn't affect it, a similar percentage by Pew. Another Gallup poll showed that 51% support marriage equality.
National Tracking Polls --Rasmussen and Gallup show Romney winning, while polls like Ipsos have President Obama eight points in the lead.
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