++Hillary Clinton 45%
Donald Trump 42%
Showing posts with label Rasmussen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rasmussen. Show all posts
Monday, October 31, 2016
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
The Week Ahead
++ Wednesday, President Obama is set to make a foreign policy speech at West Point where he will urge international engagement but no overreach.
++President Obama is to announce new measures to restrict carbon from power plants. This will be somewhat watered down so states can choose to comply. The International Community is anticipating this policy announcement as a sign the US will become serious about climate change.
++President Obama announced that the plan for Afghanistan is that American direct involvement ends this year and he advocates keeping 9,800 troops in country until 2016.
++Glenn Greenwald is set to announce what he thinks is his bombshell revelation--all the Americans who have been monitored by the NSA.
++Rasmussen has some funky poll numbers out today. Obama is at 50% approval rating.Democrats have a 42-38 lead in the generic congressional poll, which means it is a wash. Jason Carter has a 48 to 41 lead in the Georgia governor's race over Nathan Deal.
++The new Ukrainian President wants direct military assistance from the United States and wants to negotiate with Putin directly.
++President Obama has ordered military training for the "moderate" Syrians.
++President Obama is to announce new measures to restrict carbon from power plants. This will be somewhat watered down so states can choose to comply. The International Community is anticipating this policy announcement as a sign the US will become serious about climate change.
++President Obama announced that the plan for Afghanistan is that American direct involvement ends this year and he advocates keeping 9,800 troops in country until 2016.
++Glenn Greenwald is set to announce what he thinks is his bombshell revelation--all the Americans who have been monitored by the NSA.
++Rasmussen has some funky poll numbers out today. Obama is at 50% approval rating.Democrats have a 42-38 lead in the generic congressional poll, which means it is a wash. Jason Carter has a 48 to 41 lead in the Georgia governor's race over Nathan Deal.
++The new Ukrainian President wants direct military assistance from the United States and wants to negotiate with Putin directly.
++President Obama has ordered military training for the "moderate" Syrians.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Catch the New Media Twist
++Survey USA says that Obama is only 14 points above Romney in Washington State. Obama leads 54-40. Romney has picked up six points.
++I guess Rasmussen was trying to find out the same thing but alas in Massachusetts Obama is only 15 points above Romney--Obama 57 to Romney 42.
++Chris Matthews on Hardball whines that something "historic" is dying today, referring to the Obama presidency. He is talking about how the women are now supporting Romney.
++The conservatives are whispering that Obama has an October Surprise--a military action in Syria, Libya or Iran. Since forces have been put on alert in Libya, I would expect he will take out whoever is responsible for the killing of the Ambassador.
++Kevin Drum over at Mother Jones is busy pacifying everyone by reminding politicals that this was always going to be a close election, not 2008 repeated. There is just too much money against Obama and the full array of authoritarian institutions--the Catholic hierarchy, all the fundamentalist churches,all of Wall Street, the banks and large corporations. Or as Sam Wang says at Princeton Consortium that this is Bush-Kerry at the fifth degree.
++I guess Rasmussen was trying to find out the same thing but alas in Massachusetts Obama is only 15 points above Romney--Obama 57 to Romney 42.
++Chris Matthews on Hardball whines that something "historic" is dying today, referring to the Obama presidency. He is talking about how the women are now supporting Romney.
++The conservatives are whispering that Obama has an October Surprise--a military action in Syria, Libya or Iran. Since forces have been put on alert in Libya, I would expect he will take out whoever is responsible for the killing of the Ambassador.
++Kevin Drum over at Mother Jones is busy pacifying everyone by reminding politicals that this was always going to be a close election, not 2008 repeated. There is just too much money against Obama and the full array of authoritarian institutions--the Catholic hierarchy, all the fundamentalist churches,all of Wall Street, the banks and large corporations. Or as Sam Wang says at Princeton Consortium that this is Bush-Kerry at the fifth degree.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Good Vibrations
++I'm hanging on to Allan Lichtman's prediction about President Obama's re-election. I haven't seen any more keys drop so we venture into the last days before the election waiting on another Jobs Report,some disaster abroad and the barrage of dog whistles on race and the avalanche of attack ads.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Weird Election Factoids
++If Romney wins, he would become the very first Republican ever to win the presidency without winning his home state. And we will handicap it by giving Romney both Massachusetts and Michigan.
++Over half Asian-Americans are not registered to vote.
++The 7-11 poll picked the winner of the last three Presidential elections. So far it is Obama 60 to Romney 40.
++Sam Wang set his computers whirring at Princeton to project the House elections. This was preceded by a long technical article about his revised methodology, which will be a textbook article in the future. And the results--D.217.5 R. 217.5. He originally called it 218R. 217D because he hates to leave decimals for his calls on the Senate or House. But the computer keep churning out identical numbers so he just printed the straight results.
++Prior to the debate, Simon Jackman of the Political Science Department at Stanford University reports his poll findings. President Obama is running 1% below 2008 at just over 52%. Before the debate, Obama had lost Indiana and North Carolina. In Ohio, Obama is actually polling better than he did in 2008.
++James Zogby is arguing that the 2008 electorate is not the same as 2012. Instead he argues that the minority portion has grown to over 29% and that President Obama is polling 80%of these. That would mean that the Romney formula of driving Obama below 37% of the White Vote would fail.
++Utah Valley University ,led by Jay de Sart and Thomas Holbrook, have printed their projections. They have President Obama winning 332-206. And the popular vote would be 53.13% and Romney winning 46.87%.
++University of Denver has the first fully post-debate poll of Colorado. There have been two strange polls by Gravis and The Conservative Union, which show Romney in the lead--not an impossibility but not with large votes from African Americans and Hispanics. The Colorado poll is Obama at 47 and Romney 43, which would be a slight loss by Obama.
++Rumors have it the NBC/WSJ poll tomorrow will be negative for Obama.
++Gallup tracking still shows Obama 49 to 46 for Romney.
++Rasmussen still has Romney at 49 to Obama at 47.
++Over half Asian-Americans are not registered to vote.
++The 7-11 poll picked the winner of the last three Presidential elections. So far it is Obama 60 to Romney 40.
++Sam Wang set his computers whirring at Princeton to project the House elections. This was preceded by a long technical article about his revised methodology, which will be a textbook article in the future. And the results--D.217.5 R. 217.5. He originally called it 218R. 217D because he hates to leave decimals for his calls on the Senate or House. But the computer keep churning out identical numbers so he just printed the straight results.
++Prior to the debate, Simon Jackman of the Political Science Department at Stanford University reports his poll findings. President Obama is running 1% below 2008 at just over 52%. Before the debate, Obama had lost Indiana and North Carolina. In Ohio, Obama is actually polling better than he did in 2008.
++James Zogby is arguing that the 2008 electorate is not the same as 2012. Instead he argues that the minority portion has grown to over 29% and that President Obama is polling 80%of these. That would mean that the Romney formula of driving Obama below 37% of the White Vote would fail.
++Utah Valley University ,led by Jay de Sart and Thomas Holbrook, have printed their projections. They have President Obama winning 332-206. And the popular vote would be 53.13% and Romney winning 46.87%.
++University of Denver has the first fully post-debate poll of Colorado. There have been two strange polls by Gravis and The Conservative Union, which show Romney in the lead--not an impossibility but not with large votes from African Americans and Hispanics. The Colorado poll is Obama at 47 and Romney 43, which would be a slight loss by Obama.
++Rumors have it the NBC/WSJ poll tomorrow will be negative for Obama.
++Gallup tracking still shows Obama 49 to 46 for Romney.
++Rasmussen still has Romney at 49 to Obama at 47.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Rasmussen
++Rasmussen tracking Obama 48-Romney 46.
A slew of state polls came out yesterday and they weren't good for Willard. Only 4% of GOP operatives believe they have a good shot at the Senate. In February, it was 66%.
Romney needs a 6 to 8 point bounce from the first debate to get back into the race.
A slew of state polls came out yesterday and they weren't good for Willard. Only 4% of GOP operatives believe they have a good shot at the Senate. In February, it was 66%.
Romney needs a 6 to 8 point bounce from the first debate to get back into the race.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Polls Rollout
++Gallup Tracking: President Obama 48 to Romney 46. Obama's approval rating: 51%.
++Latino Decisions: Obama 69% and Romney 24%.
++Civitas (right-wing) Obama 49 to Romney 45.
++American Research Group:
Florida: Obama 50% and Romney 45%
Iowa: Obama 51% and Romney 44%
Nevada:Obama 51% and Romney 44%
++Rasmussen: Michigan. Obama 54% to Romney 42%
++Latino Decisions: Obama 69% and Romney 24%.
++Civitas (right-wing) Obama 49 to Romney 45.
++American Research Group:
Florida: Obama 50% and Romney 45%
Iowa: Obama 51% and Romney 44%
Nevada:Obama 51% and Romney 44%
++Rasmussen: Michigan. Obama 54% to Romney 42%
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Late Afternoon after Libya and Cairo
++Since I have received dozens of right-wing attacks on Obama for the assassination of our ambassador to Libya, the demonstrations in Cairo and the attack on the embassy in Yemen, I'll let these people who thought Romney's attack on the President on 9/11 was appropriate to go off and have some time to contemplate the error of their ways.
++Meanwhile back in the election campaign, Allan Lichtman and his keys to the White House still holds to his prediction of an Obama victory.
++Yesterday Gallup has Obama at 51% approval rating and 50 to 43 over Willard.
++Fox News had Obama 48 to 43.
++Esquire/Yahoo poll 50-46.
++Rasmussen had Romney back on top by 47 to 46.
++PPP-New Mexico Obama 53 to Romney 42.
++ Michigan Obama 47 to Romney 37.
++Quinnipiac --New York Obama 62 to Romney 34.
++Missouri--Rasmussen--Romney 48 to Obama 45.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal --Ohio Obama 50 to 43.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal--Virginia Obama 49 to 44.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal--Florida Obama 49 to Romney 44
++WMUR--New Hampshire --Obama 45, Romney 40.
++Onsight Public Affairs--Obama 49 to Romney 44.
Late last night before revisions, Nate Silver has Obama at 319 EV to Romney 219. Obama with 91.6% chance of winning.
From the moment Romney answered the right's call to become more aggressive against Obama it was like the exploding cigar.
++Meanwhile back in the election campaign, Allan Lichtman and his keys to the White House still holds to his prediction of an Obama victory.
++Yesterday Gallup has Obama at 51% approval rating and 50 to 43 over Willard.
++Fox News had Obama 48 to 43.
++Esquire/Yahoo poll 50-46.
++Rasmussen had Romney back on top by 47 to 46.
++PPP-New Mexico Obama 53 to Romney 42.
++ Michigan Obama 47 to Romney 37.
++Quinnipiac --New York Obama 62 to Romney 34.
++Missouri--Rasmussen--Romney 48 to Obama 45.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal --Ohio Obama 50 to 43.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal--Virginia Obama 49 to 44.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal--Florida Obama 49 to Romney 44
++WMUR--New Hampshire --Obama 45, Romney 40.
++Onsight Public Affairs--Obama 49 to Romney 44.
Late last night before revisions, Nate Silver has Obama at 319 EV to Romney 219. Obama with 91.6% chance of winning.
From the moment Romney answered the right's call to become more aggressive against Obama it was like the exploding cigar.
Friday, May 25, 2012
Memorial Day Poll Wrap-up
So The Donald said again that Barack Obama was born in Kenya and has sent investigators to Hawaii to pester those poor souls. Donald said the early reference by Obama's agent that he was born in Kenya was reasonable because Barack Obama wasn't planning on running for President.
Conservatives are all up and arms because President Obama misspoke today and referred to his sons, just showing he can't read a teleprompter. I'll bet he was referring to servicemen and women. A later e-mail said it showed he believed he was the father of our country.
Obviously people have a lot of time on their hands.
Meanwhile the tale of the tape:
I applaud Reason for their Wisconsin poll because it is one of the few to include Gary Johnson. Obama 46-Romney 36 and 6 for Johnson.
I repeat Massachusetts. Obama 59 to 34 for Romney.
California: Obama 50 to Romney 34.
North Carolina: Romney 47 to Obama 45. Note: Charlie Cook put North Carolina back as a toss-up after having it "lean Republican".
YouGov. (national) Obama 46 to Romney 42.
Rasmussen: Obama 45 to Romney 44
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 to Romney 46.
Conservatives are all up and arms because President Obama misspoke today and referred to his sons, just showing he can't read a teleprompter. I'll bet he was referring to servicemen and women. A later e-mail said it showed he believed he was the father of our country.
Obviously people have a lot of time on their hands.
Meanwhile the tale of the tape:
I applaud Reason for their Wisconsin poll because it is one of the few to include Gary Johnson. Obama 46-Romney 36 and 6 for Johnson.
I repeat Massachusetts. Obama 59 to 34 for Romney.
California: Obama 50 to Romney 34.
North Carolina: Romney 47 to Obama 45. Note: Charlie Cook put North Carolina back as a toss-up after having it "lean Republican".
YouGov. (national) Obama 46 to Romney 42.
Rasmussen: Obama 45 to Romney 44
Gallup Tracking: Obama 47 to Romney 46.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Who Has The Big Mo?
++Easy question--No one. Rumors are that both camps are keeping their big guns for later when the electorate pays attention.
++A few developments which escape the news. The RNC and the Romney people are creating separate organizations to counter the state Republican parties in Nevada and Iowa, which have been taken over by Ron Paul people. Both states are vital for Romney and he is behind in both.
++Officially the RNC laughed off the Obama campaign's suggestions that Arizona would be in play this cycle. But they have since beefed up operations in that state just in case.
++The Obama campaign has revved up their plans against the recent ID voter laws passed by Republican state houses.
Now for polling, Obama still shows strength in his state polling numbers but North Carolina and Wisconsin are reasons for some concern. PPP has Obama 48 to Romney 47 in North Carolina, while Rasmussen has Romney at 51 and Obama at 43. In Wisconsin, the Marquette Law School has the presidential race tied at 46.
A New Jersey poll has Obama with a 49 to 39 lead over Romney and with Christie as Vice President Obama wins 50 to 42.
Horse race polls are all over the map. Fox News has Obama at 46 over Romney's 39. The plurality of those voting for Romney are because he is not Barack Obama.
YouGov has Romney winning with 46 and Obama at 42.
IBD/Christian Science Monitor poll has Obama at 43 and Romney at 40.
Gallup Tracking has it even at 45-45.
PPP has it Obama 48 and Romney 46.
Rasmussen Tracking has it Romney 47, Obama 46.
JZ Analytics has it Romney 44 and Obama 43. The real number is 43.6 Romney to 43.2 Obama.
So far Romney's favorables have picked up as a consequence of his winning the GOP nomination. I sense Obama's standing has gotten sluggish. I think he should be concerned about Wisconsin because the GOP is highly motivated to come out in the recall elections and that might spill over in November. Also North Carolina and Oregon (the poll was closer than expected).
But to date it is like both candidates are just revving their engines.
++A few developments which escape the news. The RNC and the Romney people are creating separate organizations to counter the state Republican parties in Nevada and Iowa, which have been taken over by Ron Paul people. Both states are vital for Romney and he is behind in both.
++Officially the RNC laughed off the Obama campaign's suggestions that Arizona would be in play this cycle. But they have since beefed up operations in that state just in case.
++The Obama campaign has revved up their plans against the recent ID voter laws passed by Republican state houses.
Now for polling, Obama still shows strength in his state polling numbers but North Carolina and Wisconsin are reasons for some concern. PPP has Obama 48 to Romney 47 in North Carolina, while Rasmussen has Romney at 51 and Obama at 43. In Wisconsin, the Marquette Law School has the presidential race tied at 46.
A New Jersey poll has Obama with a 49 to 39 lead over Romney and with Christie as Vice President Obama wins 50 to 42.
Horse race polls are all over the map. Fox News has Obama at 46 over Romney's 39. The plurality of those voting for Romney are because he is not Barack Obama.
YouGov has Romney winning with 46 and Obama at 42.
IBD/Christian Science Monitor poll has Obama at 43 and Romney at 40.
Gallup Tracking has it even at 45-45.
PPP has it Obama 48 and Romney 46.
Rasmussen Tracking has it Romney 47, Obama 46.
JZ Analytics has it Romney 44 and Obama 43. The real number is 43.6 Romney to 43.2 Obama.
So far Romney's favorables have picked up as a consequence of his winning the GOP nomination. I sense Obama's standing has gotten sluggish. I think he should be concerned about Wisconsin because the GOP is highly motivated to come out in the recall elections and that might spill over in November. Also North Carolina and Oregon (the poll was closer than expected).
But to date it is like both candidates are just revving their engines.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Poll Potpourri
We've had an explosion in new polling firms this year,maybe good ,maybe not.
Coming back from the dead is Zogby, now polling for the Washington Times as JZ Analytics. He kicks off with Romney topping Obama by 43.6% to 43.2%. He does say that the enthusiasm of Obama voters is more intense than those for Romney. Zigby added Gary Johnson to the poll and it ends up Obama 44 to Romney 43 with Johnson at 2%. More than half Zogby polled expected Obama to win.
How about the Glengariff Group in Michigan? They have President Obama beating Mitt Romney 45.1 to 39.5% with 15.4% undecided.
Or how about Critical Insights in Maine. Mitt Romney has a better favorable rating than Barack Obama but loses to Obama by 50 to 42%.
Or Bloomberg Global poll of investors. President Obama wins Investors 49 to 38% because he has a better view of the economy and his re-election will bring stability and growth. Over half the investors expect him to win re-election.
Or polls of veterans in Stars and Stripes. President Obama upsets the past pattern of the military supporting Republicans. What came out was that veterans felt tired and exhausted from years of war and wanted more veterans programs. President Obama leads Romney by 44% to Romney's 37%. 18% do not have an opinion or will opt not to vote.
Survey USA on Washington State. Obama leads Romney 50 to 36. Obama won the state in 2008 by 17 points. I liked the fact that Survey USA put Ron Paul in the poll and he received 20% of the vote in a general election.
Survey USA in Minnesota has Obama 52 over Romney's 38.
Survey USA in Oregon has President Obama 47% over Romney's 43%, which shows the state is closer than expected.
Rasmussen in Wisconsin-- President Obama 49 to Romney 43.
Rasmussen in Massachusetts--President Obama 56 to Romney 35.
Or how about Landmark/Rosetta Stone in Georgia. Romney at 51% and President Obama at 40%.
No big surprises in the state polls, except the closeness of Orgeon.
How did the marriage equality question affect President Obama? Gallup and Pew both polled Americans how this would affect their attitudes to the President. I am sure few people answered honestly. 60% in Gallup's poll said wouldn't affect it, a similar percentage by Pew. Another Gallup poll showed that 51% support marriage equality.
National Tracking Polls --Rasmussen and Gallup show Romney winning, while polls like Ipsos have President Obama eight points in the lead.
Coming back from the dead is Zogby, now polling for the Washington Times as JZ Analytics. He kicks off with Romney topping Obama by 43.6% to 43.2%. He does say that the enthusiasm of Obama voters is more intense than those for Romney. Zigby added Gary Johnson to the poll and it ends up Obama 44 to Romney 43 with Johnson at 2%. More than half Zogby polled expected Obama to win.
How about the Glengariff Group in Michigan? They have President Obama beating Mitt Romney 45.1 to 39.5% with 15.4% undecided.
Or how about Critical Insights in Maine. Mitt Romney has a better favorable rating than Barack Obama but loses to Obama by 50 to 42%.
Or Bloomberg Global poll of investors. President Obama wins Investors 49 to 38% because he has a better view of the economy and his re-election will bring stability and growth. Over half the investors expect him to win re-election.
Or polls of veterans in Stars and Stripes. President Obama upsets the past pattern of the military supporting Republicans. What came out was that veterans felt tired and exhausted from years of war and wanted more veterans programs. President Obama leads Romney by 44% to Romney's 37%. 18% do not have an opinion or will opt not to vote.
Survey USA on Washington State. Obama leads Romney 50 to 36. Obama won the state in 2008 by 17 points. I liked the fact that Survey USA put Ron Paul in the poll and he received 20% of the vote in a general election.
Survey USA in Minnesota has Obama 52 over Romney's 38.
Survey USA in Oregon has President Obama 47% over Romney's 43%, which shows the state is closer than expected.
Rasmussen in Wisconsin-- President Obama 49 to Romney 43.
Rasmussen in Massachusetts--President Obama 56 to Romney 35.
Or how about Landmark/Rosetta Stone in Georgia. Romney at 51% and President Obama at 40%.
No big surprises in the state polls, except the closeness of Orgeon.
How did the marriage equality question affect President Obama? Gallup and Pew both polled Americans how this would affect their attitudes to the President. I am sure few people answered honestly. 60% in Gallup's poll said wouldn't affect it, a similar percentage by Pew. Another Gallup poll showed that 51% support marriage equality.
National Tracking Polls --Rasmussen and Gallup show Romney winning, while polls like Ipsos have President Obama eight points in the lead.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Will Newt Win Delaware?
++So tonight watch Willard's percentages in the GOP primaries. You'll get how far he has united the party. Also, Newt has been the only one campaigning in Delaware and expects to win. If not, he and Callista will bid us goodby.
++ Robin Leach of the "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" is the new Romney surrogate claiming that criticizing the rich is a form of socialism.
++Willard Romney has decided to have outreach to the Latino community and is campaigning with Marco Rubio. Romney stonewalled a bunch of Latino voters in Arizona when asked to support the Dream Act. He now claims to be studying Rubio's Dream Act Lite, which would allow Latinos who serve in the military a route to citizenship.
++Romney is also courting the younger voters. His campaign's pitch is that "he's younger than John McCain." Harvard found that Obama has a 43%-26% lead among younger voters while 30% are undecided.
++Ann Romney pushed the envelope at a fund-raising dinner last night saying that "She was glad that some women have no choice."
++Ezra Klein saves you a lot of trouble in today's Washington Post where you can play election predicted. Just decide what the economic growth rate will be in June and the President's approval rate and Presto you will have the odds of the President winning re-election.
++The William Brennen Institute found that 25% of American voters may not cast their vote this year because they believe the politicians are beholding to Super Pacs.
++Meanwhile in the areas of polls, Gallup's tracking poll went from 47-44 Obama to today's 49%-42 Obama with his approval rate at 50% the last two days. Rasmussen has Romney ahead 47-44%. The Daily Kos poll has Obama ahead 49-41 with 7 undecided.
++ The University of New Hampshire has Obama ahead in the Granite state by 51-42% .
++More interesting is the Morrison Institute's poll of Arizona where Romney has a 44 to 42% lead. Not great for a Red State.
++Ron Paul , as he promised, won the most delegates in Iowa and also in Minnesota. It seems the Love Revolution voted in their own people, depriving Romney of the automatic vote. Watch this tension pay out in the months ahead.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Political Rip Rap
43% of Americans in a CBS News Poll say that jobs should be the number 1 priority for government. With 12 straight months of private sector job growth, 9 out of 10 economists believe the recovery has become self-propelled and increasing. They've changed their predictions now to a 3.2-3.4% growth rate for each upcoming quarter. In the last year, the private sector has added 1.3 million jobs, topping the total private sector job creation record of 8 years of the George W. Bush Administration.
So while President Obama is going to speak about various aspects of getting the economy going and making a transition for a prosperous future,what is the GOP policy for the same? No program. No problem. The House GOP just issued a press release claiming credit for all job creation since the 2010 mid-terms. They said, "we created jobs." How? Don't ask. It's stunning but not unexpected.
The next great legislative feat the House GOP plans is to repeal public campaign finance--that's the little box on your income tax form to check if you want a couple of bucks to go to political campaigns. And if you don't get where this is going, yesterday the Tea Party announced a nation-wide campaign against voter fraud. As I've written the Tea Party and the Wisconsin GOP teamed up for a voter suppression effort against students and minorities in the mid-terms and can claim the defeat of Russ Feingold.
Voters have been fast to register buyers' remorse. John Kasich, the new Governor of Ohio, has a whopping 30% approval rate, only couple of weeks into his term. Kasich used the Wayback machine to produce the first all-white cabinet in Ohio since the 1960s. He also won the hearts and minds of voters by refusing the federal funding for high speed rail ,which would have linked major cities in his state and been a major connection between the Northeast and the Illinois part of the new system. The same rapid downfall happened with New Jersey's Chris Chrissie, who dreams of the White House with his own approval rating in the dumpster.
In 1994, with the Gingrich Revolution, 37% of Americans believed the GOP would bring the right kind of change. Today, only 25% say the same for the Boehner Revolution, according to NBC polls. The GOP honeymoon seems about over--CBS reports that the GOP now has a 49% disapproval rating.
While taking credit for the economic recovery in the country, the new GOP House plans to pass a budget cut bill soon, which would call for a 15% reduction in all agencies dealing with domestic services. While businesses do this to maximize their profit margin, what happens to government? Do these 15% soon count as unemployed? Will they be considered lazy counch potatoes when the unemployment runs out?
One of their class act cuts will be to Head Start, throwing some 389,000 children out of the program.
You have to love Colin Powell, he still doesn't get how wacky the GOP has become. He said that cutting funding for PBS would not cut the deficit. Of course, not. You do that because they fired Juan Williams. It's about revenge not about the deficit. Poor Colin suggested cutting the military.
The NYTIMES/CBS poll shows that 55% of Americans want cuts to the military; 21% Medicare; and 13% to Social Security.
For some reason, the House GOP wants to cut 4,000 FBI agents. Probably because they are under the Department of Justice, which is run by Eric Holder. Sorry, it's as simple as that.
Peggy Noonan is on the sauce again. She seemed to have discovered Obama was an eloquent man during the Tucson speech but now moans why when the country is in crisis does it elect people like Jimm Carter or Barack Obama.
That poll I wanted about Palin versus Obama in Texas is in. Palin beats Obama by 46-45. He ties the Governor Rick Perry and is behind the other GOP contenders by about 5 points.
Ben Stein isn't impressed with the GOP field for 2012 and suggests that Barack Obama show run as a Republican. Maybe that's what's behind Rasmussen having Obama at 52% approval rating. It probably means it really is about 70% given Rasmussen's business links to Fox News.
Mitt Romney won the first official strawpoll in New Hampshire. But then again, the dirty secret is that Mitt's operatives are known to pay voters in straw polls. It's part of the strategy for maintaining a presence.
Will Mitt Romney being a Mormon hurt him now that America has been exposed to Glenn Beck? Before we only knew Mormons from Orrin Hatch and Brent Scowcroft. If they are as crazy as Beck, can you really trust them in power? Another question is whether Glenn and his wife wear the Mormon magic underwear when they have sex? Romney said he doesn't because they itch.
Michelle Bachmann, the Queen of the Tea Party, denies that Tony Scalia is talking to the tea party members behind closed doors. Instead, she insists all of the House is invited. Meanwhile Chuckles Thomas continues to make news by neglecting to report his wife's income.
While our President will urge spending on modernizing our infrastructure, Mitch McConnell vows that Senate Republicans will block any further government spending. One of the great laughters in the last few days is that Ricky Cantor says he will compromise if President Obama wants Republican help in getting out of the mess. Notice the implication that the GOP never had anything to do with creating the mess.Rocky was gracious by acknowledging that the President really is a citizen of the United States --as opposed to Upper Volta.
After my post a couple of days ago about the reasons President Obama would win re-election in 2012, several mainstream journalists have also chimed in to reinforce that opinion. But a few warnings, we saw that people with negatives over 50% actually won in the 2010 elections. Yes, it's true that the GOP came to power in the House with only 22% of the vote, mostly white people over 55. But while redistricting will not seriously hamper Obama's re-election campaign, it should be noted that voter suppression efforts will be in high gear, especially against Hispanics, blacks, single women and students, key Obama constituencies. In the last election, Obama had a number of Democratic attorney-generals in the states who protected the vote. This time he does not.
So while President Obama is going to speak about various aspects of getting the economy going and making a transition for a prosperous future,what is the GOP policy for the same? No program. No problem. The House GOP just issued a press release claiming credit for all job creation since the 2010 mid-terms. They said, "we created jobs." How? Don't ask. It's stunning but not unexpected.
The next great legislative feat the House GOP plans is to repeal public campaign finance--that's the little box on your income tax form to check if you want a couple of bucks to go to political campaigns. And if you don't get where this is going, yesterday the Tea Party announced a nation-wide campaign against voter fraud. As I've written the Tea Party and the Wisconsin GOP teamed up for a voter suppression effort against students and minorities in the mid-terms and can claim the defeat of Russ Feingold.
Voters have been fast to register buyers' remorse. John Kasich, the new Governor of Ohio, has a whopping 30% approval rate, only couple of weeks into his term. Kasich used the Wayback machine to produce the first all-white cabinet in Ohio since the 1960s. He also won the hearts and minds of voters by refusing the federal funding for high speed rail ,which would have linked major cities in his state and been a major connection between the Northeast and the Illinois part of the new system. The same rapid downfall happened with New Jersey's Chris Chrissie, who dreams of the White House with his own approval rating in the dumpster.
In 1994, with the Gingrich Revolution, 37% of Americans believed the GOP would bring the right kind of change. Today, only 25% say the same for the Boehner Revolution, according to NBC polls. The GOP honeymoon seems about over--CBS reports that the GOP now has a 49% disapproval rating.
While taking credit for the economic recovery in the country, the new GOP House plans to pass a budget cut bill soon, which would call for a 15% reduction in all agencies dealing with domestic services. While businesses do this to maximize their profit margin, what happens to government? Do these 15% soon count as unemployed? Will they be considered lazy counch potatoes when the unemployment runs out?
One of their class act cuts will be to Head Start, throwing some 389,000 children out of the program.
You have to love Colin Powell, he still doesn't get how wacky the GOP has become. He said that cutting funding for PBS would not cut the deficit. Of course, not. You do that because they fired Juan Williams. It's about revenge not about the deficit. Poor Colin suggested cutting the military.
The NYTIMES/CBS poll shows that 55% of Americans want cuts to the military; 21% Medicare; and 13% to Social Security.
For some reason, the House GOP wants to cut 4,000 FBI agents. Probably because they are under the Department of Justice, which is run by Eric Holder. Sorry, it's as simple as that.
Peggy Noonan is on the sauce again. She seemed to have discovered Obama was an eloquent man during the Tucson speech but now moans why when the country is in crisis does it elect people like Jimm Carter or Barack Obama.
That poll I wanted about Palin versus Obama in Texas is in. Palin beats Obama by 46-45. He ties the Governor Rick Perry and is behind the other GOP contenders by about 5 points.
Ben Stein isn't impressed with the GOP field for 2012 and suggests that Barack Obama show run as a Republican. Maybe that's what's behind Rasmussen having Obama at 52% approval rating. It probably means it really is about 70% given Rasmussen's business links to Fox News.
Mitt Romney won the first official strawpoll in New Hampshire. But then again, the dirty secret is that Mitt's operatives are known to pay voters in straw polls. It's part of the strategy for maintaining a presence.
Will Mitt Romney being a Mormon hurt him now that America has been exposed to Glenn Beck? Before we only knew Mormons from Orrin Hatch and Brent Scowcroft. If they are as crazy as Beck, can you really trust them in power? Another question is whether Glenn and his wife wear the Mormon magic underwear when they have sex? Romney said he doesn't because they itch.
Michelle Bachmann, the Queen of the Tea Party, denies that Tony Scalia is talking to the tea party members behind closed doors. Instead, she insists all of the House is invited. Meanwhile Chuckles Thomas continues to make news by neglecting to report his wife's income.
While our President will urge spending on modernizing our infrastructure, Mitch McConnell vows that Senate Republicans will block any further government spending. One of the great laughters in the last few days is that Ricky Cantor says he will compromise if President Obama wants Republican help in getting out of the mess. Notice the implication that the GOP never had anything to do with creating the mess.Rocky was gracious by acknowledging that the President really is a citizen of the United States --as opposed to Upper Volta.
After my post a couple of days ago about the reasons President Obama would win re-election in 2012, several mainstream journalists have also chimed in to reinforce that opinion. But a few warnings, we saw that people with negatives over 50% actually won in the 2010 elections. Yes, it's true that the GOP came to power in the House with only 22% of the vote, mostly white people over 55. But while redistricting will not seriously hamper Obama's re-election campaign, it should be noted that voter suppression efforts will be in high gear, especially against Hispanics, blacks, single women and students, key Obama constituencies. In the last election, Obama had a number of Democratic attorney-generals in the states who protected the vote. This time he does not.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Teabaggers and Other Detritus
The Tea Baggers will soon announce a 7-figure anonymous donation for a Get Out The Vote campaign. I guess the donors' name sounds like Coke. And they are going to need it. Buried in a morning poll was this little tidbit. 21% of Americans say they will vote because of (favorably) the Tea Baggers. 40% say they will definitely vote to counter the teabaggers.
Quinnipiac conducted a poll in March on the Tea Party Movement. 13% of Americans consider themselves part of this "movement". 80% say they are emphatically not. Of the teabaggers, 74% are Republicans or independents leaning that way; 16% are Democrats or independents leaning that way. 77% vote for McCain. Only 15% voted for Barack Obama.
Of the following teabagger candidates for the Senate, I can only spot two--Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey--, who have ever held public office.
Rand Paul--Kentucky
Joe Miller--Alaska
Sharron Angle--Nevada
Christine O'Donnell-Delaware
Ken Buck--Colorado
Mike Lee--Utah.
We have good news for Hate Fans-- forget Islamophobia, let's get a real anti-semite to run. Jim Russell, the Republican running for New York's 18th District is a true-blue anti-semite, a white supremacist and a believer in eugenics. He's running against Nita Lowey. Russell is complaining that there is an active campaign to Judaize Christianity and he's campaigning to stop that. maybe he should openly attack Rev. John Hagee and his phony brand of Hebraic Christianity. I'm sure Russell has the winning formula for New York state.
www.electoral-vote.com ran an interesting piece on why Rasmussen can be excluded from polling summaries. The piece mirrors my concerns that started at the beginning of Obama's term when Rasmussen's approval ratings for Obama were radically at odds with almost every other pollster. Then Rasmussen started running hundreds of polls trying to create an electoral environment all his own. A Republican and now a Fox News employee, the Rasmussen polls are weighted for a sample of 38% Republican. Weighting of polling data is commonplace and in fact necessary but 38% for Republicans, when only a year and a half ago party identification was around 25%, seems a bit off. The short piece is worth a read. However, I would suggest that Rasmussen has to tighten his game for the period leading to the elections to retain any credibility left.
Governor Moonbeam has emerged from the dead. PPP polls have Brown by five over Whitman 47-42. However, in late July, he was with a six pt. lead 46 to 40. Fox News has the race tied at 45-45. Interestingly, Meg Whitman's negatives have jumped to 48.5%, near a fatal level in electoral politics.
A Greenberg Quinlan poll of swing states shows that voters approve of getting rid of the tax breaks for the wealthy at 53-62%. This seems to be a successful theme for Democrats to accent. However, Joe Lieberman wants to create a caucus of 12 to support the tax breaks for the wealthy.
Mitch McConnell is mad at Lisa Murkowski for running a write-in campaign for Senate in Alaska. For trivial buffs, only one person ever won a Senate seat by a write-in vote--Senator Thurmond of South Carolina. He may deprive her of a seat on the Energy Subcommittee.
The filibuster against the Defense Appropriations succeeded with a vote of 56-43. In other words, 57 senators wanted to vote on the bill. Welcome to the wacky world of filibusters. While credit for this neanderthal move goes to the Republicans, Virginia's own Webb acted as the closet redneck he is. Harry Reid promises another vote after the elections.
The National Organization for Marriage (NOM), which fights same sex marriage through state referenda and were a major sponsor of Prop 8 in California, received tons of money from Mormons for the California fight. But now that it adopted a policy of refusing to disclose its donors, it has become the beneficiary of $1.4 million in donations from the Knights of Ciolumbus. Apparently, the Knights of Columbus contribution funded NOM's efforts in Maine, where same-sex marriage was barely defeated.
New on our Book Shelf is C Street: The Fundamentalist Threat to American Democracy by Jeff Sharlet, the author of The Family. If you are a regular viewer of the Rachel Maddow Show, C Street will be familiar as the rest stop for Family Values guys like Senator Ensign, Coburn and Rep. Stupak. Also,who can forget the Love Guv Sanford from South Carolina?
Quinnipiac conducted a poll in March on the Tea Party Movement. 13% of Americans consider themselves part of this "movement". 80% say they are emphatically not. Of the teabaggers, 74% are Republicans or independents leaning that way; 16% are Democrats or independents leaning that way. 77% vote for McCain. Only 15% voted for Barack Obama.
Of the following teabagger candidates for the Senate, I can only spot two--Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey--, who have ever held public office.
Rand Paul--Kentucky
Joe Miller--Alaska
Sharron Angle--Nevada
Christine O'Donnell-Delaware
Ken Buck--Colorado
Mike Lee--Utah.
We have good news for Hate Fans-- forget Islamophobia, let's get a real anti-semite to run. Jim Russell, the Republican running for New York's 18th District is a true-blue anti-semite, a white supremacist and a believer in eugenics. He's running against Nita Lowey. Russell is complaining that there is an active campaign to Judaize Christianity and he's campaigning to stop that. maybe he should openly attack Rev. John Hagee and his phony brand of Hebraic Christianity. I'm sure Russell has the winning formula for New York state.
www.electoral-vote.com ran an interesting piece on why Rasmussen can be excluded from polling summaries. The piece mirrors my concerns that started at the beginning of Obama's term when Rasmussen's approval ratings for Obama were radically at odds with almost every other pollster. Then Rasmussen started running hundreds of polls trying to create an electoral environment all his own. A Republican and now a Fox News employee, the Rasmussen polls are weighted for a sample of 38% Republican. Weighting of polling data is commonplace and in fact necessary but 38% for Republicans, when only a year and a half ago party identification was around 25%, seems a bit off. The short piece is worth a read. However, I would suggest that Rasmussen has to tighten his game for the period leading to the elections to retain any credibility left.
Governor Moonbeam has emerged from the dead. PPP polls have Brown by five over Whitman 47-42. However, in late July, he was with a six pt. lead 46 to 40. Fox News has the race tied at 45-45. Interestingly, Meg Whitman's negatives have jumped to 48.5%, near a fatal level in electoral politics.
A Greenberg Quinlan poll of swing states shows that voters approve of getting rid of the tax breaks for the wealthy at 53-62%. This seems to be a successful theme for Democrats to accent. However, Joe Lieberman wants to create a caucus of 12 to support the tax breaks for the wealthy.
Mitch McConnell is mad at Lisa Murkowski for running a write-in campaign for Senate in Alaska. For trivial buffs, only one person ever won a Senate seat by a write-in vote--Senator Thurmond of South Carolina. He may deprive her of a seat on the Energy Subcommittee.
The filibuster against the Defense Appropriations succeeded with a vote of 56-43. In other words, 57 senators wanted to vote on the bill. Welcome to the wacky world of filibusters. While credit for this neanderthal move goes to the Republicans, Virginia's own Webb acted as the closet redneck he is. Harry Reid promises another vote after the elections.
The National Organization for Marriage (NOM), which fights same sex marriage through state referenda and were a major sponsor of Prop 8 in California, received tons of money from Mormons for the California fight. But now that it adopted a policy of refusing to disclose its donors, it has become the beneficiary of $1.4 million in donations from the Knights of Ciolumbus. Apparently, the Knights of Columbus contribution funded NOM's efforts in Maine, where same-sex marriage was barely defeated.
New on our Book Shelf is C Street: The Fundamentalist Threat to American Democracy by Jeff Sharlet, the author of The Family. If you are a regular viewer of the Rachel Maddow Show, C Street will be familiar as the rest stop for Family Values guys like Senator Ensign, Coburn and Rep. Stupak. Also,who can forget the Love Guv Sanford from South Carolina?
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Rainbow Bridge-Last Thoughts of the Day
There are now 44 votes in the Senate for the public option.
Now it's estimated there will be 750,000 jobs created by May.
Edmund Morris has surfaced again with an article of how Obama is reading his biography of Theodore Roosevelt. It is a fine biography. I used to pity Edmund because he would always drop into Olsson's to check out how his books were selling. He would ask whether the store wanted him to autograph those they had for sale. The problem for a bookseller is that once autographed, you can't return for credit. He has the historian's golden task. Ronald Reagan asked him to sit in the White House and watch a real President work. He could write anything he wanted on the condition it was after the presidency ended. He did this. He suffered from writer's block, then had a nervous breakdown because he couldn't after all those years figure Reagan out. Finally, he completed his biography but it did not meet with approval from critics. Luckily, he wrote the long-awaited second volume of his biography of Theodore Roosevelt and once again found his voice.
The blogosphere is like a Ouji board. With my spontaneous eruptions over my growing doubts about Rasmussen polls, Kos pens "Rasmussen Flooding the Zone". He points out that Rasmussen has conducted some 45 polls this year compared to 13 in the same span of time last year. An other blogger decided to investigate Rasmussen's client list and dragged up the usual K Street clients and other public associations. Let him at it.
But Kos' observations about three gubernatorial races bears repeating. Rasmussen's results dramatically differ from respectable polls done at the same time. Here are the comparisons:
Colorado Governor Hickenlooper (D) McInnis (R)
Rasmussen poll 42% 48%
PPP 50% 39%
Ohio Governor Strickland (D) Kasich (R)
Rasmussen 38% 49%
Quinnipiac 44% 39%
Illinois Governor Quinn (D) Brady (R)
Rasmussen 37% 47%
Rs2000 47% 32%
I am sure Nate Silver will weigh on this now that several websites are beginning to actively ask questions about the Rasmussen polls. Unfortunately, Nate has built up a relationship with Rasmussen and has been a little defensive when he addressed a similar concern about Obama's approval ratings several months ago.
One of the things that started ringing bills for me were the strange approval ratings Republican candidates started having several months ago. Many of these people were unknowns even in their own states but would show large approval ratings that made no sense. If this were also true of Democrats, you would think it were just an aberration of the polls in general. But throughout the nation, even in the most Democratic states, Republican candidates would show these very strong approval ratings. And with Obama, we have other reputable polling outfits to compare with. In the presidential approval ratings, usually Gallup will serve as a benchmark to measure the reliability of others. And Rasmussen has failed this simple test for over a year.
The backlash finally got too much with Governor McDonnell here in Virginia. He had to over-ride his Attorney-General and issue executive orders protecting gays from discrimination. The lesson in this is "Fight Back."
Speaking of strange polls, Quinnipiac has been polling the issue of whether Governor Patterson of New York should resign or complete his full term. Last week, over 60% of New Yorkers said he should resign. They polled again this week and 50% say he should serve the compete term and only 38% believe he should resign. Go figure.
Meg Whitman has really been an ace campaigner for Governor of California. The former Ebay lady called a press conference at a location where she was to be seen with other business executives showing her businesslike characteristics, which will bring full employment to all the people of that state. But she refused to answer questions from the press or make a statement or even be filmed meeting with the executives. The TV anchorwoman quipped,"It's always great to see a candidate in charge of her own campaign". She must have taken lessons from Sarah Palin but she doesn't tweet.
Those social gospel fanatics are at it again. "Heaven has no boundaries" is the slogan of the Catholic Church's push for immigration reform. Hispanics are antsy the Obama Administration has deported the same amount of people that the Bush Administration did in its last year. Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham have a draft bill for the Senate but there is no second Republican sponsor. The House already has its bill ready.
Politico is making mischief again by saying Obama's intentions are unclear over immigration reform. They might want to review the contents of the Kennedy-McCain bill which had been sabotaged by the right. Obama was one of the key drafters of the bill. There is no ambiguity here. After the health care reform bill, I think this will be the last major domestic reform Obama will get through this year.
The Senate did finally get around to cleaning up the mess that Bunning caused by passing a bill to extend unemployment insurance and COBRA for another year and to patch up the holes in Medicare funding. Even six Republicans joined the parade.
Tom DeLay of Dancing with the Stars fame said that unemployment compensation made people lazy and not get a job. This is a throwback to the days of welfare queens, except now the people are white. How one can say this during a severe recession is too much. But what really takes the cake is the Washington Post actually printing an article taking this premise seriously,"Some Worry that Unemployment Insurance Make People lazy" or a headline similar. Naturally, they have to quote Jim Bunning and other Republicans as if this is a legitimate position. They did the samething by giving Liz Cheney and Bill Kristol an opportunity to respond to the critics of the Al Qaeda 7 ad.
The unions are now playing hardball on the healthcare bill. They are saying they will oppose anyone who votes against it. Now, of course, this gets played in Drudge as Illinois mob tactics. Well, good for them. Howard Dean again said he would work for the public option until it was done. Hopefully, he knoww something. The Left is getting annoyed with Dennis "the Menace" Kuchinich because of his outspoken criticisms of the health care proposals. President Obama is travelling to Cleveland again next week to hold another one of his health care townhall meetings. He's hoping to persuade at least two more Ohio congresspeople to vote in favor.
And Hapless Harry Reid is promising filibuster reform. That was earlier today and then about an hour ago he said,"Next year". And you wonder why people have problems with Congress.
Now it's estimated there will be 750,000 jobs created by May.
Edmund Morris has surfaced again with an article of how Obama is reading his biography of Theodore Roosevelt. It is a fine biography. I used to pity Edmund because he would always drop into Olsson's to check out how his books were selling. He would ask whether the store wanted him to autograph those they had for sale. The problem for a bookseller is that once autographed, you can't return for credit. He has the historian's golden task. Ronald Reagan asked him to sit in the White House and watch a real President work. He could write anything he wanted on the condition it was after the presidency ended. He did this. He suffered from writer's block, then had a nervous breakdown because he couldn't after all those years figure Reagan out. Finally, he completed his biography but it did not meet with approval from critics. Luckily, he wrote the long-awaited second volume of his biography of Theodore Roosevelt and once again found his voice.
The blogosphere is like a Ouji board. With my spontaneous eruptions over my growing doubts about Rasmussen polls, Kos pens "Rasmussen Flooding the Zone". He points out that Rasmussen has conducted some 45 polls this year compared to 13 in the same span of time last year. An other blogger decided to investigate Rasmussen's client list and dragged up the usual K Street clients and other public associations. Let him at it.
But Kos' observations about three gubernatorial races bears repeating. Rasmussen's results dramatically differ from respectable polls done at the same time. Here are the comparisons:
Colorado Governor Hickenlooper (D) McInnis (R)
Rasmussen poll 42% 48%
PPP 50% 39%
Ohio Governor Strickland (D) Kasich (R)
Rasmussen 38% 49%
Quinnipiac 44% 39%
Illinois Governor Quinn (D) Brady (R)
Rasmussen 37% 47%
Rs2000 47% 32%
I am sure Nate Silver will weigh on this now that several websites are beginning to actively ask questions about the Rasmussen polls. Unfortunately, Nate has built up a relationship with Rasmussen and has been a little defensive when he addressed a similar concern about Obama's approval ratings several months ago.
One of the things that started ringing bills for me were the strange approval ratings Republican candidates started having several months ago. Many of these people were unknowns even in their own states but would show large approval ratings that made no sense. If this were also true of Democrats, you would think it were just an aberration of the polls in general. But throughout the nation, even in the most Democratic states, Republican candidates would show these very strong approval ratings. And with Obama, we have other reputable polling outfits to compare with. In the presidential approval ratings, usually Gallup will serve as a benchmark to measure the reliability of others. And Rasmussen has failed this simple test for over a year.
The backlash finally got too much with Governor McDonnell here in Virginia. He had to over-ride his Attorney-General and issue executive orders protecting gays from discrimination. The lesson in this is "Fight Back."
Speaking of strange polls, Quinnipiac has been polling the issue of whether Governor Patterson of New York should resign or complete his full term. Last week, over 60% of New Yorkers said he should resign. They polled again this week and 50% say he should serve the compete term and only 38% believe he should resign. Go figure.
Meg Whitman has really been an ace campaigner for Governor of California. The former Ebay lady called a press conference at a location where she was to be seen with other business executives showing her businesslike characteristics, which will bring full employment to all the people of that state. But she refused to answer questions from the press or make a statement or even be filmed meeting with the executives. The TV anchorwoman quipped,"It's always great to see a candidate in charge of her own campaign". She must have taken lessons from Sarah Palin but she doesn't tweet.
Those social gospel fanatics are at it again. "Heaven has no boundaries" is the slogan of the Catholic Church's push for immigration reform. Hispanics are antsy the Obama Administration has deported the same amount of people that the Bush Administration did in its last year. Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham have a draft bill for the Senate but there is no second Republican sponsor. The House already has its bill ready.
Politico is making mischief again by saying Obama's intentions are unclear over immigration reform. They might want to review the contents of the Kennedy-McCain bill which had been sabotaged by the right. Obama was one of the key drafters of the bill. There is no ambiguity here. After the health care reform bill, I think this will be the last major domestic reform Obama will get through this year.
The Senate did finally get around to cleaning up the mess that Bunning caused by passing a bill to extend unemployment insurance and COBRA for another year and to patch up the holes in Medicare funding. Even six Republicans joined the parade.
Tom DeLay of Dancing with the Stars fame said that unemployment compensation made people lazy and not get a job. This is a throwback to the days of welfare queens, except now the people are white. How one can say this during a severe recession is too much. But what really takes the cake is the Washington Post actually printing an article taking this premise seriously,"Some Worry that Unemployment Insurance Make People lazy" or a headline similar. Naturally, they have to quote Jim Bunning and other Republicans as if this is a legitimate position. They did the samething by giving Liz Cheney and Bill Kristol an opportunity to respond to the critics of the Al Qaeda 7 ad.
The unions are now playing hardball on the healthcare bill. They are saying they will oppose anyone who votes against it. Now, of course, this gets played in Drudge as Illinois mob tactics. Well, good for them. Howard Dean again said he would work for the public option until it was done. Hopefully, he knoww something. The Left is getting annoyed with Dennis "the Menace" Kuchinich because of his outspoken criticisms of the health care proposals. President Obama is travelling to Cleveland again next week to hold another one of his health care townhall meetings. He's hoping to persuade at least two more Ohio congresspeople to vote in favor.
And Hapless Harry Reid is promising filibuster reform. That was earlier today and then about an hour ago he said,"Next year". And you wonder why people have problems with Congress.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
They want you as a new recruit--cue in the Village People
Rahm Emmanuel did a little rope-a-dope with the Fox News crowd by saving the best on Massa until right before he appeared on the Glenn Beck. First Steny Hoyer said Massa's charges about being forced out were "not serious", then Gibbs at the White House press briefing in the morning downplayed Massa's charges that the White House wanted him out because he opposed health care reform as ridiculous. Then as the day moved on, the press already knew right before Beck that the charges against Massa was he molested a series of male aides. The ones who hadn't pressed the ethics charges soon followed to make it known they had complaints also. By the time Massa got on Fox he was nearly as incoherent as he was the day before and only admitted to "tickle fights" with male staff. All the grave charges against the Democratic leadership disappeared and finally Beck had to apologize to the audience for wasting their time. Nicely done.
Meanwhile Howard Dean led a rally of pro-healthcare protestors in Dupont Circle. The group wanted to make citizens' arrests of medical insurance company executives who have called an emergency meeting in the Capital now that President Obama has taken out after them.
There are now 50 Senators on the record for reconciliation and 40 have signed on for the public option so far. Senate and House Republicans made it clear to day that they are going to make the mid-term elections a referendum on health care reform and will campaign to repeal it. I guess they are throwing in the towel. Now let's walk this one through. Let's say the republicans actually win both the House and the Senate and pass a bill repealing healthcare reform. Do you really think they will have 2/3rds of the Senate to override a veto? It's just a red herring.
Republican news outlets like Politico and Drudge are now circulating the story that Nancy Pelosi has "lost control" of the Democratic caucus because of how she handled the Rangel case. There is virtually no evidence of this. It's just another late minute ploy to shake Democrats who are wavering on health care.
What does disturb me is Steny Hoyer's statement that the vote may not be March 18th as the White House said today. That's the day President Obama is supposed to fly abroad. Don't go, Mr. President, until these clowns vote on it.
While all this is going on, the left appears to be throwing a tantrum and I can't figure it out why. Yes, the health care bill is far from perfect but it will help 30 million people and a few of us who remain at the mercy of the health insurance industry. But this drumbeat about how Obama is going to lose this constituency, that constituency for crimes real and imagined are at this early stage hyperbolic and certainly premature.
The good news is that a Zogby-Newsmax poll has Obama beating Bush 48-38. Zogby has definitely taken the one way ride to Palookaville. Once the premier pollster during the Carter years, he is just scrapping bottom for any clients he can get. For me, there is virtually no worth to Zogby polls at this stage.
Which brings me to the sad state of Rasmussen polls, which during past cycles were sensible and reasonable. My gut tells me Rasmussen is cashing in big time in the 2010 election cycle, perhaps to sell the business off. Rasmussen has been repeatedly been conducting polls around the country for Republicans in such a frequency as to raise questions about motivations. There is no earthly reason to have conducted so many polls so early in an election year except to establish a climate , a tone, a background favorable to Republicans and to influence the electorate. And to make buckets of cash.
Breaking down any of his polls recently, you will see Rasmussen over samples Republicans, often by as much as 8-9%. I was sad when Zogby bit the dust of credibility and I also regret Rasmussen travelling down the same road. Check for yourself, the difference in Rasmussen's approval polls for President Obama against Gallup or anyone else. You will find Obama has been in the low 40s in Rasmussen for quite some time, while Gallup ranges from 49 to 52. The difference is not plausible in my mind.
In many of these state races, Rasmussen has the only poll out there. If the Republican leads by less than 10 percent, then consider the race a toss-up. I think that is the margin of real error. And if the Democrat is in any type of lead, you already know the results.
All of this is part of an effort to manufacture a Republican comeback at a time when the party has no ideas or leaders. It's a very tricky thing to pull off. It's true they have their own private TV channel, which is the only one in my lifetime to actively organize protests against a sitting President. They also have dominance in my opinion over the other networks and the Washington Post. But so far they are just throwing anything at the wall to see if it will stick. The rolling Rasmussen polls are part of a strategy of psywarfare. I'm interesting to see what Rasmussen will do from a business angle after the mid-terms are over.
For the public good, I think it would be great to have the media boycott U.S. Senators of both parties for one week. I think this would be a great experiment and it would send our Samurai Warlords crazy. Frankly, I don't care if Blanche Lincoln is for health care but doubtful about reconciliation. Or that Lindsey Graham put his finger in the air and decided it was OK to criticize Liz Cheney. And why must we have John McCain on every week since he lost to President Obama? Did we have Michael Dukakis on every week or John Kerry? And, by the way, where are the Democrats when it comes to national security issues? They never appear to defend the Administration even though it's cleaning up on the war on terror.
I've been watching Alabama ever since accusations were made against Karl Rove manipulating the case against Governor Spiegelman. Alabama over many election cycles has been owned by Republicans. Between Ralph Reed and Karl Rove, there have been dirty tricks played galore in the state. But I've noticed recently that the Democrats are beginning to put together a solid team of candidates, including for Governor. I think this is one state to watch for some interesting changes this year. The other state is Texas.
I was fascinated today to learn Rupert Murdoch is going to move the headquarters for his media empire to Dubai. I wonder how much of this is related to the Saudi ownership in the company. His leading business partner as I've posted elsewhere is a Saudi Prince, who reportedly funds the families of suicide bombers. Interesting that this goes uncommented on in the U.S.
I'm having a tough time becoming a permanent Yankee Fan. Steinbrenner will not extend the contracts of Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera until after the season ends. He's the same old goat.
The Packard family is taking out after Carly Fiorina in California. Carly's main argument why she should be a Senator was her "superb" job as CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Not so, say the Packards, who believe she brought the company close to ruin. They had to intercede to stop her attempt to acquire Compaq and finally stimulated a shareholder revolt to can her. You will recall the memorable moment in the McCain campaign where Carly told everyone that as CEO she purposely kept H-P funds abroad to escape paying Americam corporate taxes. So the people of California can elect a tax-dodger.
Charlie Crist looks like he's toast in Florida. Marco Rubio has an insurmontable lead for the Republican primary. Rubio is a major scandal waiting to happen. He's already been caught out using the party American Express card to charge his rather extensive personal expenses. He will be a disaster as a Senator, even though conservatives believe he is one of them--he's not. Crist has been a decent governor in hard times. Remember Jeb lost the entire state pension fund at Lehman Brothers. The Democratic candidate is too weak. Crist should either change parties or run as an independent.
Things are looking up for former Republican Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island. He appears to have a commanding lead in the race for the state house. He is one of those who was run out of the Republican party by the right.
The New York profile of Liz Cheney is worth a read. The operative elements of the article concern her personal and her husband's relationships with key media personalities in town. All her appearances are very managed and limited with the collusion of her media friends. It's not political, it's totally personal.
Finally, Jimi Hendrix Valleys of Neptune is sweet. You forget how good he was. This is the last album he recorded before he died. It was hung up in litigation until the family won the rights to all his work. It was recorded shortly after Electric Ladyland. I could have done without the copious notes on every single personnel dispute and where the band stayed in Manhattan during this period. But good listening.
Meanwhile Howard Dean led a rally of pro-healthcare protestors in Dupont Circle. The group wanted to make citizens' arrests of medical insurance company executives who have called an emergency meeting in the Capital now that President Obama has taken out after them.
There are now 50 Senators on the record for reconciliation and 40 have signed on for the public option so far. Senate and House Republicans made it clear to day that they are going to make the mid-term elections a referendum on health care reform and will campaign to repeal it. I guess they are throwing in the towel. Now let's walk this one through. Let's say the republicans actually win both the House and the Senate and pass a bill repealing healthcare reform. Do you really think they will have 2/3rds of the Senate to override a veto? It's just a red herring.
Republican news outlets like Politico and Drudge are now circulating the story that Nancy Pelosi has "lost control" of the Democratic caucus because of how she handled the Rangel case. There is virtually no evidence of this. It's just another late minute ploy to shake Democrats who are wavering on health care.
What does disturb me is Steny Hoyer's statement that the vote may not be March 18th as the White House said today. That's the day President Obama is supposed to fly abroad. Don't go, Mr. President, until these clowns vote on it.
While all this is going on, the left appears to be throwing a tantrum and I can't figure it out why. Yes, the health care bill is far from perfect but it will help 30 million people and a few of us who remain at the mercy of the health insurance industry. But this drumbeat about how Obama is going to lose this constituency, that constituency for crimes real and imagined are at this early stage hyperbolic and certainly premature.
The good news is that a Zogby-Newsmax poll has Obama beating Bush 48-38. Zogby has definitely taken the one way ride to Palookaville. Once the premier pollster during the Carter years, he is just scrapping bottom for any clients he can get. For me, there is virtually no worth to Zogby polls at this stage.
Which brings me to the sad state of Rasmussen polls, which during past cycles were sensible and reasonable. My gut tells me Rasmussen is cashing in big time in the 2010 election cycle, perhaps to sell the business off. Rasmussen has been repeatedly been conducting polls around the country for Republicans in such a frequency as to raise questions about motivations. There is no earthly reason to have conducted so many polls so early in an election year except to establish a climate , a tone, a background favorable to Republicans and to influence the electorate. And to make buckets of cash.
Breaking down any of his polls recently, you will see Rasmussen over samples Republicans, often by as much as 8-9%. I was sad when Zogby bit the dust of credibility and I also regret Rasmussen travelling down the same road. Check for yourself, the difference in Rasmussen's approval polls for President Obama against Gallup or anyone else. You will find Obama has been in the low 40s in Rasmussen for quite some time, while Gallup ranges from 49 to 52. The difference is not plausible in my mind.
In many of these state races, Rasmussen has the only poll out there. If the Republican leads by less than 10 percent, then consider the race a toss-up. I think that is the margin of real error. And if the Democrat is in any type of lead, you already know the results.
All of this is part of an effort to manufacture a Republican comeback at a time when the party has no ideas or leaders. It's a very tricky thing to pull off. It's true they have their own private TV channel, which is the only one in my lifetime to actively organize protests against a sitting President. They also have dominance in my opinion over the other networks and the Washington Post. But so far they are just throwing anything at the wall to see if it will stick. The rolling Rasmussen polls are part of a strategy of psywarfare. I'm interesting to see what Rasmussen will do from a business angle after the mid-terms are over.
For the public good, I think it would be great to have the media boycott U.S. Senators of both parties for one week. I think this would be a great experiment and it would send our Samurai Warlords crazy. Frankly, I don't care if Blanche Lincoln is for health care but doubtful about reconciliation. Or that Lindsey Graham put his finger in the air and decided it was OK to criticize Liz Cheney. And why must we have John McCain on every week since he lost to President Obama? Did we have Michael Dukakis on every week or John Kerry? And, by the way, where are the Democrats when it comes to national security issues? They never appear to defend the Administration even though it's cleaning up on the war on terror.
I've been watching Alabama ever since accusations were made against Karl Rove manipulating the case against Governor Spiegelman. Alabama over many election cycles has been owned by Republicans. Between Ralph Reed and Karl Rove, there have been dirty tricks played galore in the state. But I've noticed recently that the Democrats are beginning to put together a solid team of candidates, including for Governor. I think this is one state to watch for some interesting changes this year. The other state is Texas.
I was fascinated today to learn Rupert Murdoch is going to move the headquarters for his media empire to Dubai. I wonder how much of this is related to the Saudi ownership in the company. His leading business partner as I've posted elsewhere is a Saudi Prince, who reportedly funds the families of suicide bombers. Interesting that this goes uncommented on in the U.S.
I'm having a tough time becoming a permanent Yankee Fan. Steinbrenner will not extend the contracts of Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera until after the season ends. He's the same old goat.
The Packard family is taking out after Carly Fiorina in California. Carly's main argument why she should be a Senator was her "superb" job as CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Not so, say the Packards, who believe she brought the company close to ruin. They had to intercede to stop her attempt to acquire Compaq and finally stimulated a shareholder revolt to can her. You will recall the memorable moment in the McCain campaign where Carly told everyone that as CEO she purposely kept H-P funds abroad to escape paying Americam corporate taxes. So the people of California can elect a tax-dodger.
Charlie Crist looks like he's toast in Florida. Marco Rubio has an insurmontable lead for the Republican primary. Rubio is a major scandal waiting to happen. He's already been caught out using the party American Express card to charge his rather extensive personal expenses. He will be a disaster as a Senator, even though conservatives believe he is one of them--he's not. Crist has been a decent governor in hard times. Remember Jeb lost the entire state pension fund at Lehman Brothers. The Democratic candidate is too weak. Crist should either change parties or run as an independent.
Things are looking up for former Republican Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island. He appears to have a commanding lead in the race for the state house. He is one of those who was run out of the Republican party by the right.
The New York profile of Liz Cheney is worth a read. The operative elements of the article concern her personal and her husband's relationships with key media personalities in town. All her appearances are very managed and limited with the collusion of her media friends. It's not political, it's totally personal.
Finally, Jimi Hendrix Valleys of Neptune is sweet. You forget how good he was. This is the last album he recorded before he died. It was hung up in litigation until the family won the rights to all his work. It was recorded shortly after Electric Ladyland. I could have done without the copious notes on every single personnel dispute and where the band stayed in Manhattan during this period. But good listening.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Friday Madness
There is a www.recoveringrepublican.com that caters to former Republicans. So far I'm not impressed but they may gain some momentum with the latest fracas on the Hill.
I think Andrew Sullivan got the Judd Gregg thing right. He has Gregg accepting the Commerce post believing Republicans were actually going to work with President Obama. He might have thought that because he worked with the Democrats in the first bank bailout bills that Bush forced down Congress' throat. Once it became clear there was no movement on the Republican side to accomodate the President, he knew the game was up. A personal issue was also his awareness that he didn't work well with teams. Democrats are also hinting that the Jack Abramoff connection with his staff may have been a negative. Sullivan desires credit for coining the phrase," opportunism of selective ideology" referring to the GOP.
Meanwhile in Chinatown, Diapers Dave Vitter spoke to the Federalist Society claiming Obama's theory of judges was "dictatorial". A fringe group of the Federalists managed to foist off the "unitary theory of the executive" onto the American people through the Bush Administration. Only Mexico under the PRI and Adolf Hitler obtained greater inherent legal executive authority than Bush. So you wonder for this crowd how much more dictatorial can you go?
The House Democrats slipped a mickey into the drink of the stimulus by requiring Governors to respond within 30-45 days whether they wanted to accept simulus funds. This was in particular a shot at South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, who has been campaigning on network television against it. Republican Governors Haley Barbour and Texas' Rick Parry have also denounced the package.
The Queen of the North, Sarah Palin, is having none of it. She's cancelled her appearance here at the CPAC summit with Rush Limbaugh for reasons of her official duties. But I expect it was to avoid criticising Obama when she has been pushing him on using stimulus funds for the Alaska-Canada pipeline. She urged him to raise it with Canada's Harper, which he did. A prompt thank-you note to the President was sent. An Alaskan nationalist, Palin is not going to waste any opportunity snagging some federal support.
My posting about the Kanjorski C-Span comments concerning the September 18 run of the banks anticipated the new rash of comments by Cliff Kincaid, Diane West, and Rush Limbaugh who raised the issue of who actually did do the run. Rush Limbaugh thinks it was a consortium of countries, including George Soros, who wanted Barack Obama elected President. The conservative commentators claim (although not true) that John McCain was leading the race at that point. The financial collapse did do in John McCain, but also recall it was the time of the first debate where the rest of the United States got to see Barack Obama and not the McCain caricature of a terrorist-living ,crypto-Muslim naif. Obama went on to win that and every single other debate with McCain. But the first debate sealed the deal just like the Reagan-Carter debate ended that election. But expect more on this subject in the future.
The "birthers" continue on. They are trumpeting their recruitment of a few legislators in Tennessee, who are demanding President Obama prove he is an American citizen.
The "Real America" terminology is being brought to bear on the stimulus debate. Without Republicans voting on the House bill, now we are hearing it is no longer an "American" bill. Senators Specter, Snow and Collins are called Benedict Arnolds by Dick Morris. Presumably helping Americans during this time is considered --"unpatriotic". Strange.
Karl Rove, who never hides his ugly face, has been around town chatting how 'gracious" the Republicans have been about the whole stimulus debate and that this highlighted the Obama position of it's my way or the highway. I never knew that was Obama's position. Also I wouldn't call the Republicans particularly gracious. For his part, Congressman Conyers just issued another subpoena to Karl. When is Rove going to hide and start preparing his law cases.
Little Eddy Cantor who had a 100% voting record for Bush seems to be replaying footage from Newt Gingrich's early years. Republicans complained then that the accomodations the minority leadership made with the Democrats doomed them to a perpetual minority status in the House. Newt changed all that with his fervent obstructionism, which eventually saw the Republicans come back in 1994. Cantor is simply replaying that. It's the most amazing Hail Mary Pass in political history. he should have been John McCain's campaign manager.
Republicans have threatened the three Republicans about withholding campaign funds from them in the future. One problem, Collins just won and Snowe won't run until 2012. So they have decided to target Sen. Specter with a primary challenger. It may cost Specter his job but the Republicans will lose the seat to Democrats if they continue down the hard-right path.
Rasmussen is another man going down the road to perdition. The Rasmussen poll claims that Republicans would pick up 50 additional seats in the House if the election were held today. I guess he has changed his first name to Zogby.
I think Andrew Sullivan got the Judd Gregg thing right. He has Gregg accepting the Commerce post believing Republicans were actually going to work with President Obama. He might have thought that because he worked with the Democrats in the first bank bailout bills that Bush forced down Congress' throat. Once it became clear there was no movement on the Republican side to accomodate the President, he knew the game was up. A personal issue was also his awareness that he didn't work well with teams. Democrats are also hinting that the Jack Abramoff connection with his staff may have been a negative. Sullivan desires credit for coining the phrase," opportunism of selective ideology" referring to the GOP.
Meanwhile in Chinatown, Diapers Dave Vitter spoke to the Federalist Society claiming Obama's theory of judges was "dictatorial". A fringe group of the Federalists managed to foist off the "unitary theory of the executive" onto the American people through the Bush Administration. Only Mexico under the PRI and Adolf Hitler obtained greater inherent legal executive authority than Bush. So you wonder for this crowd how much more dictatorial can you go?
The House Democrats slipped a mickey into the drink of the stimulus by requiring Governors to respond within 30-45 days whether they wanted to accept simulus funds. This was in particular a shot at South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, who has been campaigning on network television against it. Republican Governors Haley Barbour and Texas' Rick Parry have also denounced the package.
The Queen of the North, Sarah Palin, is having none of it. She's cancelled her appearance here at the CPAC summit with Rush Limbaugh for reasons of her official duties. But I expect it was to avoid criticising Obama when she has been pushing him on using stimulus funds for the Alaska-Canada pipeline. She urged him to raise it with Canada's Harper, which he did. A prompt thank-you note to the President was sent. An Alaskan nationalist, Palin is not going to waste any opportunity snagging some federal support.
My posting about the Kanjorski C-Span comments concerning the September 18 run of the banks anticipated the new rash of comments by Cliff Kincaid, Diane West, and Rush Limbaugh who raised the issue of who actually did do the run. Rush Limbaugh thinks it was a consortium of countries, including George Soros, who wanted Barack Obama elected President. The conservative commentators claim (although not true) that John McCain was leading the race at that point. The financial collapse did do in John McCain, but also recall it was the time of the first debate where the rest of the United States got to see Barack Obama and not the McCain caricature of a terrorist-living ,crypto-Muslim naif. Obama went on to win that and every single other debate with McCain. But the first debate sealed the deal just like the Reagan-Carter debate ended that election. But expect more on this subject in the future.
The "birthers" continue on. They are trumpeting their recruitment of a few legislators in Tennessee, who are demanding President Obama prove he is an American citizen.
The "Real America" terminology is being brought to bear on the stimulus debate. Without Republicans voting on the House bill, now we are hearing it is no longer an "American" bill. Senators Specter, Snow and Collins are called Benedict Arnolds by Dick Morris. Presumably helping Americans during this time is considered --"unpatriotic". Strange.
Karl Rove, who never hides his ugly face, has been around town chatting how 'gracious" the Republicans have been about the whole stimulus debate and that this highlighted the Obama position of it's my way or the highway. I never knew that was Obama's position. Also I wouldn't call the Republicans particularly gracious. For his part, Congressman Conyers just issued another subpoena to Karl. When is Rove going to hide and start preparing his law cases.
Little Eddy Cantor who had a 100% voting record for Bush seems to be replaying footage from Newt Gingrich's early years. Republicans complained then that the accomodations the minority leadership made with the Democrats doomed them to a perpetual minority status in the House. Newt changed all that with his fervent obstructionism, which eventually saw the Republicans come back in 1994. Cantor is simply replaying that. It's the most amazing Hail Mary Pass in political history. he should have been John McCain's campaign manager.
Republicans have threatened the three Republicans about withholding campaign funds from them in the future. One problem, Collins just won and Snowe won't run until 2012. So they have decided to target Sen. Specter with a primary challenger. It may cost Specter his job but the Republicans will lose the seat to Democrats if they continue down the hard-right path.
Rasmussen is another man going down the road to perdition. The Rasmussen poll claims that Republicans would pick up 50 additional seats in the House if the election were held today. I guess he has changed his first name to Zogby.
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