Monday, July 19, 2010

New Guinea at the Last Manatee

There is some more good news about the Washington Post article on our bloated, inefficient intelligence corporation. It means that the probability of conspiracy theories being true has increased dramatically. This will be a boom to novelists, Hollywood and Alex Jones. The downside is that if you work abroad in any capacity the odds are you will be seen as an American agent.

Marco Rubio, the first candidate adopted by the teabaggers, says that we have to unleash the power of the free market and that corporations have plenty of money to invest but are uncertain because of new Washington regulations. Forgetting for a moment the horrendous record of our corporations in creating jobs for the past decade, I propose a total tax moratorium for two years for all U.S. corporations in return for the creation of 15 million jobs. If they can't do this, then the government seizes them. That's fair.

Charles Cook has some new numbers of how low George W. esteem is and how voters prefer Obama's treatment of the economy better than W's. In fact, astonishingly 65% of Republicans do not believe GOP will return to these policies. Suckers! However, over the weekend, several Republican leaders emphatically argued that we have to return to these policies on the economy. In other words, the Marco Rubio line now is the standard GOP argument. Forget how the global economy collapsed and how many hundreds and hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost running up to the election of Barack Obama. The whole Karl Rove corporate branch of the GOP, America at the Crossroads, is running ads against Democrats recalling year X, when the unemployment rate was low and then comparing it to now. So vote Republican. I thought John Boehner's America was supposed to be the 1950s but I guess it was the W years.

My apologies to the baby-boomers, there will be no retirement. Scott Thill at Alternet posted a scary article a few days ago. One out of 3 Americans do not have retirement savngs beyond Social Security and about 35% of those over 65 rely almost totally on Social Security. And then factor in that anyone 40 or under will not have a pension. Dallas Salisbury of Alliance for Investor Education and the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) broke down the remaining 2/3rds of Americans as follows: 27% report less than $1,000 in savings; 16% between $1,000 and $9,999, 11% between $10,000 and $24,999, 12% between $25,000-$49,999, and 36% $50,000 or more. He recommends saving 25% of your gross income for retirement but does say the biggest risk with this is that fund-managers tend to squander your savings. So good luck. The other finding was that older Americans will have to continue some type of work until they die. So the bottom-line is that no Baby Boomers or any one younger can retire. We are now the post-retirement society.

Glenn Beck told a Salt Lake City audience that he will be blind in a year from macular dystrophy, which I take to be a type of macular degeneration. It's a horrible thing even to happen to a horrible man. Having talked over the years to Johns Hopkins about this illness because my mother suffered from it, I can report some progress has been made but not enough. The last time I asked the Doctor told me to literally eat carrots, which they found amerliorated the situation. Who knew? I thought that was an old wives tale.

Glenn Beck said on a recent show: " The policies that are being enacted in Washington are not enemies of ours. They are enemies of God, because God is about freedom." What can you say to that?

Gallup has released a monster poll where they surveyed more than 90,000 adults nationwide for Obama's approval rating. Obama averaged 49% nationwide since January, compared to 57% over the entire previous year. To give you some idea of how stable the rating is, today's Gallup tracking poll had him at 48%.

So Obama tops out at 85% in Washington, D.C. because he goes to Ben's Chili Bowl and Hawaii, which thinks he was born there, is 68%. He ranks high in Delaware at 62%. (Note here: it's widely assumed Mike Castle, the moderate conservative Republican, will win the Democratic Senate seat in November. Watch this space because with this number taht might change.) Maryland, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Illinois and Vermont as well as California top out the top 10. In California, he has a 56% approval rating. (Watch this space whether this aids Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer in the Fall.)

With the exception of New Hampshire, we don't really care if the bottom ten states leave the union. His lowest rating is Wyoming at 29% followed by Utah, West Virginia and Idaho at 34%. Oklahoma, Alaska and Montana round out the 30s. Then Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, New hampshire, Alabama and Missouri at 40-41%.

In Texas--given the race for governor there, he ranks a 47% approval rating.

Barack Obama's approval rate surpasses disapproval in 31 out of the 50 states. None of the remaining states have any significant weight in terms of the electoral college if you're looking at 2012.

If you're a GOP operative, looking at these numbers you realize that Obama will take every state with a significant Latino population. That's why we are seeing the re-emergence of Jeb Bush on the political scene. Jeb showed up for a fund-raiser for Rand Paul this past week. The reasoning is that all the potential candidates for the GOP are pro-Arizona state law and anti-Latino. Jeb is married to a Latino and his son is an active political player in the Florida Latino community. So this little trial balloon of whitewashing W's record may have more to do with paving the way for Jeb, rather than with any serious policy implications.

Nate the Great Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com has redone his Senate projects with a slight uptick to the Republicans. So Democrats hold the Senate with 53.5 seats. Contrary to today's Wall Street Journal piece today, which argues the GOP can take back the Senate, Nate puts it at a 6% possibity but higher to 18% possibility if Crist caucuses with the GOP.

Making a contribution to our political dialogue is the Constitutional Accountability Center, which today published a paper "Setting the Record Straight: The Tea Party and the Constitutional Powers of the Federal Government". See www.theusconstitution.org They promise to have a watch list of constitutional boners said by tea party candidates. This project is important because people are now referring to the tea baggers as populist constitutionalists, giving them more gravitas than they deserve.

For an antidote to the Washington Post piece on the military/ terrorist state, I recommend Bruce Fein's American Empire Before The Fall (Campaign for Liberty, 2010,paperback). I always view Bruce Fein as the canary in the mine shaft. If something is a problem with constitutional issues, he will be the first to holler. I believe he beat the ACLU to the punch on the Patriot Act and was the only conservative to testify for the impeachment of George W. Bush. While he seems to have become more of a libertarian than I remember, Fein's book is an excellent reminder that we really did not want an empire and we can't afford one. He promises in his introduction to offend everyone with the book but he remnds us how far we've gone away from the American ideals. He is also tough on Obama for retaining much of the national security apparatus created by W and Dick Cheney.

In reference to a few posts back, I talked about Detroit as the "arsenal of Nazi Germany". This was in reference to Ford and General Motors building so much of the German war machine. In Ford's case, it is particular to the influence Henry Ford had over Adolph Hitler, who hailed in the first edition of Mein Kampf Henry Ford's refusal to bow down to the Jewish financiers. With our experiment in ethnic cleansing in Arizona and the revival of the neo-nazis and white supremacists in the United States, it's useful to remember what a powerful influence America played in the rise of Nazi Germany and its racial theories. In a small--160p--book entitled Nazi Nexus--America's Corporate Connections to Hitler's Holocaust,Edwin Black summarizes his various works on the Holocaust and American corporations into easy-to-use chapters. Stefan Kuhl, a sociology professor at the University of Munich,works backwards from Nazi Germany to the U.S. to discuss the enormous influence American racial theories and eugenics played in the development of German National Socialism in The Nazi Connection-Eugenics, American Racism and German National Socialism. (Oxford, 1994)

Top Secret America

The Washington Post published an investigative piece by Dana Priest and William Arkin on an alternative reality America, which lacks any thorough oversight--the top secret world created after 9/11--the latest installment in our military/ terrorist complex. Today's article is the result of a two-year investigation by the Post reporters into the unprecedented spending on alleged security and intelligence. The alternative America makes Too Big Too Fail banks look puny. And, of course, this behemoth hasn't made us any safer or secure but probably has put us at greater risk.

Every American should read this piece just for the scale of the anti-terrorism effort and the sheer lunacy of the waste and redundancy.

Here are some of the highlights:

*There are some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies that work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.

*An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington,D.C. hold top-secret security clearances. I can't wait for a follow-up article on counter-intelligence.

*Since September 2001, in Washington and the surrounding area, 33 building complexes for top-secret intelligence work are under construction or have been built. Together they occupy the equivalent of 3 Pentagons or 22 U.S. Capital buildings--about 17 million square feet of office space.

*There are 51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities,that track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks. (Consider there are about 50 Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and another 350 in Pakistan and about 300 in Yemen.)

*Analysts who have to make sense of documents and conversations obtained by spying generate 50,000 intelligence reports per year--a volume so large many are routinely ignored.

In the Department of Defense, where more than two-thirds of the intelligence reside, only a handful of officials--called Super Users--have the ability to even know about all the department's activities. But even these officials can't take notes on the intelligence and programs they are monitoring.

I guess the good news is that all this acts as a stimulus to regional construction projects. But there is virtually no oversight, no accountability, no budget limits and ,in my opinion, no real effectiveness.

If you want some idea of the impossibility of digesting all the raw intelligence gathered and its storage, I recommend James Bamford The Shadow Factory (Doubleday, 2008), which examines just the insanity at the NSA and the technological challenges of storing information many times that contained in all the world's libraries combined. He likens it to Jorge Luis Borge's "Library of Babel", where "there are leagues of senseless cacophonies, verbal jumbles and incoherences."

Be safe out there!

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Election News

Howard Dean has sent out an e-mail about two candidates he's backing this year--Jack Conway in Kentucky and Roxanne Conlin of Iowa. You might add Elaine Marshall in North Carolina to the list of worthy Senate candidates. Jack Conway has attracted attention because he's running against libertarian-Tea Party favorite Rand Paul. Roxanne Conlin is an attorney, and former Attorney-General of Iowa who is challenging Senator Grassley, who just voted against Wall Street Reform as well as Healthcare Reform. Grassley also has the distinction of showcasing stimulus projects in Iowa as his own, when he voted against the package. Conlin is a longshot but Grassley's state approval rate has dipped below 50% and he can be had. Elaine Marshall is another attractive candidate in North Carolina. She grew up on a farm and encouraged by 4H she was the first of her family to go to college. Again as an attorney-general, she actually defended the public interest. Her opponent is Senator Burr ,who has amassed a $6 million war chest. But all three--Conway, Conlin and Marshall make excellent candidates and have run ads that are professional but straight forward. If they can keep their opponents' lead below 10 in the next two months, they have a real shot.

Karl Rove's group is running ads against Harry Reid protesting that Harry hasn't brought home enough of the stimlus bacon to Nevada. I guess the fact that Sharron Angle says her job will not be to create jobs in Nevada, this must leave voters confused. Does Karl mean that Nevada should have a better Democratic Senator? Harry has taken a 7 point lead over Angle in the race according to the Mason-Dixon poll.

I thought it was interesting that Charlie Cook has switched his ratings on the Diaper Dave Vitter race to "leaning Republican". Apparently, Vitter appointing an aide who stabbed his girlfriend as someone in charge of "women's affairs" finally provoked a full slate of primary challengers. The idea that Charlie Melancon ,the Democrat, has a shot at the Louisiana seat is rather surprising and welcomed news.

I'm surprised that Democrats are anticipating Republican attack lines better than they used to. In Ohio, Democrats have jumped John Kasich, who used to brag about his work on Wall Street but now claims he just ran a two-man office for Lehman Brothers in Columbus. The Democrats pre-emptive ad has neutralized Kasich's attempt to minimize his involvement with the Wall Street scandal. Likewise, in Illinois, Democrats have badly wounded Republican favorite for Senate Mark Kirk by pointing out his inconsistencies on his war record. Indeed, the candidate will not even speak to the press. The Democrats destroyed Sue Lowden in Nevada by highlighting her chicken barter idea for healthcare. Now in Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley is in retreat as he is trying to avoid discussing any issues when Democrats and the press started raising questions about what in the state budget he would cut if elected Governor. The same seems to apply to Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, the former owner of the World Wrestling Federation. She had been given a free pass but now questions are being asked about her stands on issues. The local newspaper even dug up her investments in oil companies dealing with Iran.

President Obama has come out in a campaign mode by addressing Republican obstructionism head-on as in his weekly television address. Perhaps the most effective campaigner from the White House so far has been Joe Biden. He likened the newfound concern of Republicans on the national debt as "arsonists expressing concerns about fire safety". Biden has been one of the best salesmen for the benefits of the stimulus package and the laundry list of achievements of the Administration. My problem is that he has oversold the amount of new jobs being created, which may come back and bite the Democrats.

The DNC circulated a memo this week written by Brad Woodhouse, their Communications Director, on "Putting Voter Sentiment and Recent Polls in their Proper Perspective". Their basic aim was to calm Democrats down about a possible repeat of 1994 or 2006 when the party in power lost Congress. They claim that there is greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in the Democratic leadership than for the party in power in either of those election cycles.

President Obama is much more popular than President Bush in 2006 and Clinton in 1994. It also can be said he's more popular than Reagan in 1982, another serious recession year.

More voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust the Republicans to do so. This is always the missing element in news coverage of the polls that point out the lack of confidence in President Obama and the Democrats. The bottom rung here has been occupied by the Republicans at about 26% for the last 18 months.

On the economy--which is rated the number 1 concern by voters--Democrats are trusted more than Republicans 42%-34%. This is a similar margin to the Democrat win in 2006 and a larger margin than the Republicans had in their 1994 win. This is a key number to get a handle on what will happen in the fall.

Voters also trust Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move the country forward in other ways. A Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that "supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment" while just 24% said they were less likely. The Washington Post found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery, as against 37% who opposed.

According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance, while 44% said they would vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. In another poll, a majority now support the healthcare bill.

Given the recent Wall Street Reform bill, Bloomberg found that 45% of voters are more likely to suppport a Congressional candidate who supports "tougher regulations on Wall Street firms" while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.

The generic congressional polls show leads either way. The DNC uses the latest Washington Post poll that showed Republicans with a 47-46% edge. In contrast, the 2006 polls, when democrats won back the House showed Democrats with a 54-41% lead over Republicans.

In short, the conclusion of a Republican takeover of Congress at this stage are not borne out by the polling data, even though all of the Washington pundits make it a foregone conclusion. For the past year, I have been pointing out Republican approval ratings in Congress are abysmal. Republican leadership in both the Senate and the House are lucky on any given week to rise above 30%. I agree that this year is chaotic with the teabagging phenomenon and the rise of the Hard Right but I have yet to see evidence of this promised tsunami of reaction.

This past week the Republican leadership may have been courting their donors for more campaign funds with calls to repeal Wall Street Reform and a moratorium on federal regulations. But I can't believe this gives them any popular momentum. Notice for instance how quiet the Tea baggers have been over the Wall Street Reform bill. Only the corporate funded branch in D.C. mounted half-hearted protests. I also sense that the national debt issue will not redound to their favor. Several polls I've written about indicate that people are not buying the need to cut social security or Medicare. Instead, they are walking over the Republican national security creds by demanding cuts in defense and war.

I still say wait until after Labor Day before we know what's really happening. I'm basically pleased to see that various polls indicate that Americans, however stressed they are, are keeping level heads on the political front. I also believe that the flood of corporate money to Republicans is not going to be a political asset but a liability this year.

Disaster Alert--Obama is on Vacation

No sooner does President Obama start for the doors and the Beltway has a 3.6 earthquake. Summer and Obama vacations almost always spell disaster. Remember last August and the tea party eruptions? Just have to keep your fingers crossed. Of course, the GOP has blasted the First Family for leaving town since there is a crisis with the BP oil spill in the Gulf. And even more damaging are the Drudge reports that Obama has played Golf ten times, while Rome burns.

But even Politico finally fessed up that Tan Man Boehner has played Golf 199 times just this year. I guess now we know why he's tan. Democrats are seizing on this to mount a billboard in his district highlighting this fact. Can you imagine the legislative schedule if the Republicans actually won back the House? The champion vacation taker is George W. Bush, who spent three whole years of his eight years in office either at his ranch or at Camp David.

The Tan Man was in fine form this past week after Wall Street Reform finally passed--with all of 3 Republican votes. Conferring with K Street lobbyists, Boehner emerged to a press conference to advocate a one-year mortatorium on all federal regulations. Can you imagine how paralyzed the government would be?Mitch McConnell is saying that Republicans really shouldn't spell out their agenda because as Republican Congressman King from New York proclaimed the media would just pick it apart. Republicans held a video conference to gather ideas from regular people--the Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and the Home Builders of America--just folks. Mark Pence of Indiana appeared on Fox to defend Senator Kyle's statement that we must renew the tax cuts for the rich and that extended unemployment benefits were too costly. Pence used the old canned conservative argument that tax cuts for the rich generated more government revenues. Unfortunately, for him, the record has now been documented by OMB and other institutions that they massively increased the national debt. It was alright to advocate them with pie-in-the-sky projections when no one knew but now the verdict is in.

The Republicans are handing Democrats issues if they know what to do with them. An MSNBC poll of the public revealed that in every sector of the economy Americans overwhelmingly wanted more, not less regulation. As for the great social security cutters, Time magazine asked," If Congress and the President had to reduce spending, in which areas would you want tthem to cut?" 55%--wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. 46%--other defense spending. 34%--unemployment compensation. 20%--Medicaid. 17%--education. 16%-Medicare. 12%--Social Security. Any bets whether the military/terrorist complex is included in the Cat Food Commission findings this December?

Apparently, Americans have not gone crazy despite the 24/7 right-wing echo chamber. Even more surprising is that Texas really hasn't gone nuts either. The Texas Freedom Network Education Fund released its survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The survey wanted to gauge public opinion on the intersection of politics and religion with the public schools. Coming after the Texas School Board's total revision of American history, this only seems appropriate. Are people in Texas so crazyas to agree to purge Thomas Jefferson from history and substitute John Calvin? Well, I guess not.

72% of likely Texas voters want teachers and scholars, not politicians to be responsible for writing curriculum requirements for public schools.
84% of Democrats, 63% of Republicans and 76% of Independents through all major urban areas want experts in charge of writing curriculum standards.
68% said that the separation of church and state is a key constitutional principle but 49% said that religions should have some influence in public schools.

But this finding doesn't mean that Texans want to sign on to the religious culture wars.
80% of likely Texas voters agree that high school classes on sex education should teach about" contraceptions,such as condoms and other birth control, along with abstinence."
88% think public schools should be required "to protect all children from bullying, harassment and discrimination in school, including the children of gay and lesbian parents or teenagers who are gay".
55% of likely Texas voters oppose using publicly funded vouchers that allow some students to attend private and religious schools.

As I've previously noted, something seems to be happening in the Texas governor race. Democrat Bill White has outraised GOP's Rick Perry and with Linda Chavez-Thompson as his Lt.Gov he has a good chance to swing the Latino vote. Locals polls show post the Arizona Immigration Law that Latinos has shifted dramatically to White.

Meg Whitman has tried to become Latino friendly in her race against Jerry Brown, even though her primary campaign ran ads for more restrictive immigration laws. But you wonder why someone would spend $100 million of her own money and counting to win any office. Meg has a keen sense of business. Her core campaign idea is to eliminate the California Income Tax. Pretty nifty. So she recoups her campiagn expenditures if she wins by eliminating the tax of her income. This is populism at work.

Meanwhile in Arizona, our experiment in ethnic cleansing continues. It seems Arizonans are not dying at a high rate, it's the illegals coming across the border. Death rates are reaching historical proportions. But the great news is that militiamen led by a real neo-Nazi are patrolling the border. The federal government claims they haven't broken any laws---yet.

The NAACP passed a rather tame resolution calling on the Tea Party gang to denounce those in their ranks who are racist. Naturally, they were attacked as racist by Sarah Palin and the tea party spokespeople. Those Obama as Hitler signs were plants from the "Crash the Tea Party" group, who are also alleged to be responsible for the group's bad spelling. However, Mark Williams on the Tea Party Express was demoted for posting a racist parody of blacks rejecting the Emancipation Proclamation on the group's website. This was on the day he appeared on Fox to call the NAACP racist.

the Tea Party Folks who posted a billboard in the small Iowa town that served as River City in the Music Man have pulled it down for fear of reprisals. It likened President Obama to Hitler and Lenin.

The anti-gay marriage group, NOM has started their summer tour of the states to rev up support for marriage. In Maine they drew 50 people, in Massachusetts another 50 and in Albany, New York a record 100. It's not going so well.

The great New Panther Party Voter intimidation pseudo-scandal, which has received round the clock coverage by Fox, was dealt a blow. The U.S. Civil Rights Commission, which is now rigged with conservatives, wants to study the "case" with an aim at attacking the Department of Justice. The case has one major flaw. There is no one claiming they were intimidated by the New Black Panthers at the polls. In fact, DOJ did prosecute one New Black Panther but on other grounds. Well, Abigail Thernstrom, a Bush appointee to the Commission, slammed her fellow conservatives as trying to use this case to "topple Eric Holder and President Obama if possible." She went on to say there was no merit to the accusations at all. The idea is to run this as the Willie Horton ad for 2012.

What's amusing in all this is that the man allowing this to become a Fox News special feature is Roger Ailes. Only this week Glenn Beck called Roger Ailes a "hero of the civil rights movement". The sublime reason for this is that Roger Ailes booked Martin Luther King, jr. on the old Mike Douglas show. Other than that Ailes was a prominent figure in devising Richard Nixon's southern strategy, which oozed racism.

Speaking of Glenn Beck, who is morphing more frequently than John McCain, the great showman said that Jesus Christ conquered death and did not return with his resurrection to seek revenge on the Jews who killed him. Spoken like a real Mormon. Beck's theology doesn't come from Mel Gibson's pre-Vatican II Catholicism but an old strain of American evangelical thought that Jesus is really of the Nordic race. There was a school of thought still lingering on the mudflats that Jesus simply couldn't be Jewish and, according to American racial theories, he exhibited characteristics of the Nordic race. This reached it's high-tide in the early 1930s. It is embarrassing that a leader of the American evangelical movement Rev. Buchen embraced Hitler and advocated the world be run by global fascism. Beck's own Mormonism was actually encouraged in Hitler's Germany, when Jews were being exterminated and the Christian churches were shut down or silenced.

I have to channel some of this insanity. Since this stuff is so repulsive, I'm switching to our Chamber of Commerce, which despite its claims of representing small business advocates the policy positions of our top 19 corporations. Progressives immediately took the bait about the Chamber's new call to cut social security spending and no regulations. But they missed the visionary aspects of the new platform. The Chamber has publically called for the privatization of our highways , waterways and opening public lands to more timber cutting. This comes at a time when free-market Hong Kong has just adopted its first minimum wage bill. The Chamber has gone back to the late 19th century for its motivation.

I am reviving my paper organization--The Newark Whaling,Sealing and Holding Company. This company estabished in 1833 at the height of our dependence on whale oil had one ship and managed in its short history to capture one whale off the coast of Valapraiso, Chile. it wasgiven the whaling rights off the New Jersey coast but it's ship sank and the original company was financially ruined. I've decided to revive it again to launch a new career in the privatizing of our waterways. I first thought I would aim at the Los Angeles River, now paved with concrete, but instead decided to privatize the Delaware River in keeping with the company's state of origin. With a Republican governor in New Jersey and a likely one in Pennsylvania this year , the political climate in these two states lends itself to privatizing the river border between the two states. And in keeping with the Tea Party spirit, I will stand on the bow of a rowboat and wade ashore in Trenton in honor of George Washington. Hopefully, I can receive a government loan to finance this endeavor.

If that doesn't work, I seek political asylum with the Six Nations in upstate New York. The Haudenosaunee lacrosse team was denied entrance into the UK for a lacrosse tournament because they were travelling on Iroquois Nation passports. Hillary Clinton had to intervene to OK them leaving the states on the passports but British authorities denied them admission because after all they actually invented lacrosse. Also, they invented federalism and had a great influence on Benjamin Franklin and his attitudes on federalism. And also, they built the Brooklyn Bridge. But no dice. They couldn't play but they looked great in their jerseys and long hair. They shouldn't feel bad. Lacrosse great Oren Lyons, one of their spiritual leaders and advocate for Indian rights, was deprived for decades a place in our own Lacrosse Hall of Fame, which had been exclusively for white players. Finally, they had to let him in because they were ashamed that the Hall would not include one of the greatest players of all time and someone from the people who invented the sport.

Zbig says that we are all suffering from an Obama malaise--and he should know about malaises since the Carter days. Bloomberg's poll reports that Obama is crashing wildly--at 52% approval rate; Gallup has been the same for about six months; and other polls show a 9 month plateau.
Charles Krauthammer warns conservatives they are seriously underestimating Obama. Charles, I thought you said he was the next Carter.

Anyway, Mr. Godwin will be sworn in to replace Harry Byrd on Tuesday and an hour later Harry Reid plans to call another vote on extending unemployment insurance. And we will see. Elena Kagan , Gallup tells us, has the lowest approval rate of someone about to be approved since they have been polling this odd question. Jefferson Beauregard Sessions claims that he may filibuster. This would then put Elena Kagan in the elite company with Abe Fortas, the only other Supreme Court nominee every filibustered, in the history of the United States. I doubt whether it will happen.

But that's the type of thing that happens when Obama goes on vacation. Phew, I noticed his plan has left Bar Harbor. Maybe we have averted a national disaster.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Dodd-Franks Bill Passes--BFD Take Two

The Wall Street Reform bill finally was allowed to be voted on by a 60 to 38 margin and the actual bill passed again with 60 in favor and 38 against. And true to form, John Boehner vows to repeal it in the next congress and Lamar Alexander wants to do the same in the Senate. President Obama will sign the bill next week. It has been hyped as the most major reform of our financial system since the Great Depression. Actually alot of it is returning to the regulatory state we had before the early 1990s. While critics claim that it still allows Too Big Too Fail, that's not technically true. Regulators are allowed to step in if a bank looks like it will threaten the health of our economy as many did during the 2008 meltdown. But there are many safeguards built into the bill, which at least will prevent a regime of Great Panics, which the Republicans appear to want.

Like alot of reform bills, this will be as good as it is implemented in reality. What's important now is the designation of a forceful head of the first Consumer Agency, which is the most visible and public friendly innovation in the bill. Hopefully, Washington rumors will turn out to be true with the nomination of Elizabeth Warren, who said in the past if the Consumer Agency was not in the bill she wanted to see lots of blood and teeth on the Senate floor.

The bill is already being blasted by Huffington Post and others as not going far enough, just like the healthcare bill. But it is a major accomplishment, even if it doesn't pay immediate dividends for the Democrats. Senator Chris Dodd saved the best for his last year with this bill and also his major work on Healthcare reform. And Barney Frank's work on the reconciliation conference saved many of the tough measures that were not watered down in the Senate.

Meanwhile, BP has announced it has finally stopped the flood of oil into the Gulf. While the announcement is provisional, pending further tests, it is welcomed news. Now maybe we can finally start evaluating the total damage done to the ecosystem and move forward with the Senate's clean energy bill.

Ayn Rand confidente and disciple Alan Greenspan today announced that the Bush tax cuts for the rich should not be continued.

And another poll shows that the American people by wide margins reject the idea that Social Security has any consequences for the national debt and want it maintained, especially given the current Deep Recession. In fact, they are right, Social Security only runs into problems in the year 2037 but the United States took 2 trillion out of it to pay for the deficits during the W years. On paper, everything is fine. It was Ronald Reagan in 1983 who ensured that Social Security would pay for the baby boomers with the bipartisan agreement reached then. the idea in the Clinton years was that the budget surplusses would stabilize Medicare for the future.

Time Magazine Poll

Time Magazin just released a poll on President Obama's performance in office. Consider this is summer--Obama's bad season as we've seen since 2008. The Republican headquarters near the House buildings now sport a large "Fire Pelosi" banner in red. Senator Corker of Tennessee said today that Obama doesn't have the leadership to create jobs. We'll visit the Chamber of Commerce strategy in a later post but the filthy rich have $14 trillion that is not being invested and American corporations have $2 trillion they have not put to work yet.

So pretty grim news. So Obama's approval rating in the Time poll is 49% with 45% disapproving. In a match-up of Obama versus George W. Bush--it's Obama by 53 to 33%. Against Sarah Palin 55-34%.

On Foreign Affairs, Obama's approval is 52 to 41%. On Afghanistan 47-44%.
53% disapprove of his immigration policies. 54% disapprove of how he handled the BP affair.

On right track-wrong track. 56% think the U.S. is on the wrong track. Still in 2008, right track was 18%. This new number is actually about a 6% improvement over the last few months.

On the economy, 61% blame George W. Bush; 27% blame Obama. Given the media pounding of Obama on this issue, I find this number encouraging.

31% to 26% believe Obama's policies have helped. The large number of undecideds is worrisome.

Before Tan Man Boehner measures for drapes, he should know by 43-39% Americans trust Democrats more on the economy. In the generic poll, Democrats have a 43-42% lead.

On the Deficit, Americans do not want to cut Social Security and Medicare. The majority want to balance the budget by cutting defense spending. This is an interesting development. And Conservatives want to cut unemployment benefits by a 49-21% margin.

What is absolutely fascinating is that 80% of Americans believe the economy has stabilized and heading in the right direction. This may account for 2/3rds of Americans don't want additional stimulus spending.

So far the polls this summer reflect that the American people still remain relatively sane and still possess their faculties.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Happy Bastille Day

Bruce Fein, the former Solicitor General under Reagan and constitutional scholar, appeared this morning on NPR to discuss his new book American Empire Before The Fall. He decried the massive expansion of presidential power and the fact that the use of military forces abroad no longer requires congressional approval. He pointed to the recent confirmation of General Petraeus, noting that no Senator asked him why we were in Afghanistan and when we were coming home. He quoted the Founding Fathers' about the dangers of perpetual war. On the show as a Georgetown University professor who claimed that the real dangers facing our constitutional order occurred under George W. Bush and that Fein was reacting to the election of President Obama. That's not fair to Fein, who testified before Kucinich's committee urging the impeachment of George W. Bush on the abuse of power. David Frum also appeared and made very rational arguments about why the United States really can't be called an Empire and insisted that the ppowers of the presidency are nothing like they were during the Cold War. David's arguments really need research because he argued that Cold War Presidents could wire-tap anyone without a court order and had almost total power when it came to war. He says that only with George W and Obama have the powers of the presidency come back close to their Cold War situation. Fein countered that the rule of law was being subverted by the powers being acquired by the post-2001 presidency and the insistence we are at war against a tactic--terrorism--than any nation-state. Therefore, since there is no standards for victory, we are committed to a perpetual war and even American citizens are targeted for assassination by the President without due process. He was referring to the American Muslim in Yemen.

In the afternoon, I moderated a panel on encouraging democratic change in Iran. Some of the discussion raised issues I posted before concerning pro-democracy programs. Members of Congress spoke about the need for Americans to speak out on human rights issues in Iran and to express solidarity with Iranians trying to change the nature of the government. One member recalled the efforts of the United States to support democratic change within the East Bloc and the Soviet Union. What struck me about the remarks was how ad-lib the efforts were to encourage democratic change then. Organizations used the kitchen sink approach with considerably less money than allocated to democracy assistance programs today and the local groups and civil society organizations controlled their own agenda when receiving this assistance. In other words, they owned the process more than emerging democrats do in the many efforts made over the last 10 years. The general conclusion was that negotiation, engagement are not incompatible with efforts to support Iranian democrats within the country.

The best moment for me was introducing civil rights legend John Lewis, who gave a rousing speech for human rights activism and the need for solidarity with all those oppressed in the world today. Lewis recited the various beatings and jailings he endured during our civil rights movement and urged the audience, "Never Give Up! Never Give Up!"

On that note, there is one positive development on our political landscape--the creation of the coalition of 175 groups under the umbrella name of "One Nation". After several months of internal negotiations, trade unions, civil rights groups, Hispanic advocacy organizations and other progressive movements finally recognized that there was too much at stake in this year's elections and beyond to allow the teahadists to dominate the discussion. Whether they can make the difference this year remains to be seen. But what makes them distinct from the teahadists, the coalition represents organizations and groups with vast grass-roots and community constituencies. It is the progressive answer to Obama's Coalition for America, which also has re-invented itself for the struggle in November. This is the way politics has to be done if one's ideas are going to succeed.

The NAACP passed a resolution asking that the teahadists remove the racists from their midst. You'll recall the teabaggers spitting at John Lewis and calling him racial epithets during the healthcare debate. The racist undertone of the tea party rallies has been obvious to any sane observer. What the NAACP asked is what any organization does--expel and denounce the extremists. This happened when the Republican Party was forced to denounce David Duke when he re-invented himself from Klansman and white supremacist to a conservative Republican. It also happened when yesteryear's conservatives booted out the John Birch Society from iits midst. But the NAACP resolution was met by Sarah Palin demanding an apology to the tea party. Right Wing radio has been non-stop racist rants from just prior to the election of Barack Obama and even yesterday Rush Limbaugh denounced the late George Steinbrenner for making African Americans millionaires. Apparently, it's now OK to be a racist.

Bruce Fein said something this morning that even if a majority voted away due process, that doesn't make it right. The Founding Fathers were deeply concerned about the majority oppression of the minority.

Meanwhile Senate Republicans continue to play little games with the Kagan nomination to the Supreme Court. Now they want her to pledge to recuse herself from any case having to do with the healthcare bill. Maybe Clarence Thomas should recuse himself because his wife runs a teabagger foundation with two large donors footing the bill.

A CBS poll says that only 13% of Americans believe Obama's policies have done anything for them. I am one of them. I got a tax cut this year--most who received a tax cut claim their taxes increased. Through streamling the FACSA process for applying for college aid, I got grants and loans equivalent of 20% of my son's education. With the Credit Card reform bill, my credit cards no longer have been jacking up my percentages as they did almost every month in 2008 and now they have to send me a bill giving me about 3 weeks to pay, instead of the 2 weeks of 2008 and 2009. This helps cash flow. I could refinance my house at rock bottom interest rates. The lost equity in my house has come back by 2/3rds. Under healthcare, I can cover my son until he is 26. If the full healthcare bill is implemented, I can't be denied coverage for pre-existing conditions and I will not go bankrupt if I have any serious illness. And, for my personal enjoyment, President Obama made the largest government grant for scientific research and development in the history of the world. So, thank you President Obama!

Another poll came out today that shows that the top priorities of the American People are 20% the economy, 20% jobs and only 5% the deficit. American people support tax hikes on the rich, and adopting the McColm plan of raising the cap on social security taxes. From the pundits and the media, you would think Americans are obsessively concerned about the deficit and the national debt.

A University of Michigan study just came out that showed that it really doesn't matter what the facts are--people will continue to believe what they want to believe. One example used was a question asked of Americans after Reagan severely cut the inflation of the Carter years. People were asked whether inflation has gone down or risen. The supermajority believed it had risen, despite this being one of the headline issues of the day. The Michigan study also showed that people who are shown to be wrong factually will double down on their original beliefs. So much for honest debate.

And with that we leave you with Mitch McConnell's insistance that tax cuts to the rich brought in vast government revenues during the Bush years. Ezra Klein debunked this myth as has the OMB. Challenged with the OMB findings, McConnell insisted on his original statement. Michigan researchers were right.