"Egypt is Free, Egypt is Free"-A Big F****ing Deal

Demonstrators remarked that they had been disappointed that change had not come as quickly as Obama promised in his Cairo speech. But it's clear they had heard it and the message he conveyed then. President Obama will speak in about an hour on the Egyptian situation. But for all Americans maybe we should have the courtesy to applaud the Egyptian people for their brilliant use of non-violence to bring down a dictatorship. It really is not about us but about the amazing persistance by the average Egyptian that forced Mubarak to step down.

Events in Cairo also should remind us of the hazards implicit in the United States urging on a people when we have no intention to assist them. The first historical situation I remember is Hungary 1956, when the United States urged the Hungarian people to revolt against the Soviet Union only for them to be killed and jailed because we never responded. Most recently, it was father Bush urging the Shia to revolt against Saddam Hussein. Even though we could have given air cover to them and prevented Saddam from reinforcing his troops, we did not. The Shia did revolt and were massacred indiscriminately. Or George W who said "Whoever stands for freedom, America will stand with you." But his administration did nothing for the Iranians when they stood for freedom. Personally, I believe President Obama played this almost as well as it could be played given the regional sensitivies.

However,last week I had my doubts. Ambassador Wisner astonished me and apparently the White House by appearing on Fox News and defending President Mubarak and raising doubts about the wisdom of his leaving office. Two days later progressive bloggers noted that Ambassador Wisner's law firm was a lobbyist for the Egyptian regime. This was the most glaring misstep in the Obama approach to the demonstrations. As for the President his words and body language conveyed he was clearly on the side of the demonstrators. It wasn't like President Reagan's initial response to Marcos having rigged his re-election. There was no hesitation but a more deliberate, less hortatory approach to the situation. Clearly, the back channel discussions were extensive and the White House was kept up-to-date with the various concessions the government was making to the pro-democracy demonstrators. Throughout the week, the list of these concessions were considerable and significant--except for the last piece the resignation of Mubarak.

The Drudge Report headlines "Military Coup in Egypt" in order to continue this theme of instability and unrest. But what is clear is that democratic change in Egypt, which is the intellectual and political leader of the Arab world, will have profound implications throughout the whole Middle East. The Al-Jazeera Revolution is being replicated throughout northern Africa, the Sudan,Yemen, Jordan and maybe Syria. As Egyptian scholars have said throughout this period that if Egypt goes democratic, it will be the death knell for Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda with its Egyptian second-in-command has been studiously silent throughout the demonstrations. Even the Muslim Brotherhood has been low-key--first being skeptical about the protestors, secondly, announcing they would not compete in any elections and lastly trying to become a force within the demonstrations themselves. They have yet defined their position about recent events.

The impact of the Egyptian Revolution on the Arab world can not be underestimated. But its continued influence on neighboring states create interesting dilemmas for the United States. For instance,the Obama Administration through intensive diplomacy mid-wifed the birth of a new nation, South Sudan, and is starting new talks on the situation in Darfur. However,the Sudanese government ,which acknowledged the referendum's results in the South Sudan, is now subject to the same protests as Egypt. The Sudanese government is an essential partner to these new Darfur talks but it has cracked down on the universities and trying to repress the demonstrators. here, we have to walk a fine line as we did with the Egyptian situation.

What has escaped our media to date is the rash of demonstrations hitting Morocco. Only the Spanish press have been covering the protests, which seem to grow everyday. When Hassan II came to power, it was widely hoped that he would introduce a type of constitutional monarchy and finally resolve the issue of the independence of the Western Sahara. Instead, over the last year he has brutally repressed the population in the occupied area of the Western Sahara and stumped out dissent at home. Hassan's claim to significance is the boast that his family is directly related to Mohammed.

Algeria has already experienced an Islamic revolt and immediately lifted the 19-year state of exception after the Egyptian revolution broke out. To counter the food crisis at home, it immediately went on the world market and bought a huge amount of foodstuffs to satisfy the demonstrators.

The only hotspot which will be very tricky for the United States is Syria. Syria has been simmering all this while and waiting for the results of the Egyptian Revolution. If Syria becomes destabilized, the biggest problem will be the incursion of the Iranians, who are allies with Assad. This will also lead to a greater role of Hezbollah in Syrian affairs.

Today, the Middle East changed and maybe for the future. For one moment, we should wish the Egyptian people well and recognized the bravery they exhibited in changing their political life through non-violent means. Selfishly, we should thank them for saving us a $ 1 trillion and hundreds of American lives. This was the way democratic reolutions were supposed to happen--not at the end of a gun.