Send in the Goons...Where are the Goons?..They are Right Here.*

Apologies to Stephen Sondheim

For the past two days,organized goon squads have attacked the pro-democracy protesters throughout Egypt. The good news is that Mubarak has agreed not to run for President again, his son has made the same announcement and Vice President Selieman also agreed. The head of state media defected today to the demonstrators and now is acting as a whistleblower about the crackdown on journalists. Journalists from all our major networks have either been attacked or detained for hours. Amnesty International has also been arrested.

This all looks like the last gasp of a regime that is dying in front of our eyes. Secretary of State Clinton has spent two days on the horn first denouncing the killings yesterday and later today the repression against journalists. Unfortunately for the government, there is no one around who bought into their narrative about the demonstrators being violent and infiltrators. Instead we saw the Egyptian people act in an orderly manner and even break out in joyous celebration.

I still feel President Obama should have been tougher with Mabarak and insist that the transition occuring Now, means he doesn't participate. That was John Kerry address two days ago and was the proper one. In the day and a half since the speech,the military, which had acted properly, went into a neutral mode and refrained from seperating the goon squads from the demonstrators. It was as if they had to see whether the uprising could be repressed through intimidation and force. Even Vice President Selieman said he would not negotiate until the demonstrations ended. Today, he started talks even though demonstrators still held the Square.

Hopefully the administration is quietly telling the military that all aid will be suspended until such time as a transition plan to democracy is approved, which incorporates the opposition forces. That is the word coming from the Senate today. Senator Leahy from Vermont was quick to say that all the aid in the pipeline would not be going to a regime that is repressing its people. President Obama should make this explicit because the longer the transition perior the more likely the situation will become radicalized. And this seems to be what Mubarak is banking on. He claimed today that he would be willing to step down immediately except there would be chaos. In fact, if he had made such an announcement on Tuesday,the transition would have gone calmly and orderly. Once the government unleashed the goon squads,chances have increased for anarchy and increased political violence.

The biggest concern has come from those trying to factor in Israel's interest in the situation. The more radical conservatives in the U.S. have painted a stark picture of Mubarak versus the Muslim Brotherhood. At this stage of the uprising, the protestors have been incredibly disciplined in controlling the Islamist element. The alternatives are not that sharp indeed. First,it is highly unlikely that anyone either in Egypt or abroad will demand the dissolution of the army as we did in Iraq. The Egyptian military is well aware that it gets the $1.5 billion in aid from the United States for supporting the Peace Accords. It's hghly unlikely that in any transition they would jeopardize that assistance.

Then there is the obvious. Mubarak is an 83-year old cancer survivor, who has run the country for 30 years and walked off with $40 billion. Even if he had declared his candidacy for the elections, he would be 89 at the end. The man is physically and politically a dead man walking. And this is your bulwark against extremism? You've been dealt a bad hand. But that hasn't stopped the extreme Right from defending him. Freepers actually sided with the goon squads today and yesterday,"even if Obama doesn't like it". Frank Gaffney has put forth the thesis that the Obama Administration at "the highest levels" has been infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood and are simply carried out their agenda. So far,the Brotherhood has maintained a low profile because they know their presence would panic the world community and another Algeria would happen--when the military stopped the democratic process.

The Obama Administration is haunted by the spectre of the Iranian Revolution and how the hostage crisis brought about the defeat of Jimmy Carter. Remember that was Ted Koppel's rise to power,,,theme song..."185 Days America held hostage." There are a number of more serious policy types looking at all the ways to avoid another Iran. You could view the sending of the Marins to guard the embassy as a sign the Obama Administration were pro-active in avoiding a hostage situation. Iran hovers over all these considerations. Others point to how the Cedar Revolution morphed into a Hezbollah dominated Lebanon. Of course, you could also look at Iraq becoming a colony of Iran courtesy of the last administration.

What's interesting is how widespread the Arab uprising has gone. Algeria responded to the demonstrations there by instantly buying more foodstuffs and announcing today that it would lift its 19-year state of seige. It's curious that Egypt has not mentioned anything about lifting its permanent state of emergency or sanctioning those responsible for the killings and woundings of demonstrators. Almost all the special powers of the state remain in force. While Yemen's president took the Tunisian and Egyptian leads and announced he wouldn't run again, the demonstrations in Yemen have gotten larger and now penetrate into the rural areas. The Sudan decided to preempt larger demonstrations and cracked down on the university, the source of opposition activity in the Arab world. But the Sudanese opposition remains undeterred and have up the stakes for tomorrow's rallies. The king of Jordan read the tea leaves earlier and moved quickly to dismiss the government and promised yet again reforms.

If you like to bet, I would favor Algeria, Tunisia and Jordan coming out of this in better form than I would Egypt, the Sudan or Yemen. It is also clear that Turkey has stepped up to the leadership position in the area of political change in the region.

The situation has produced some real howlers from American politicians. Debating Howard Dean, Newt Gingrich claimed that Reagan would have known how to handle the situation. Newt admitted that Reagan had been focused on the Soviet Union but he would have studied "radical islam" and prevented its spread. Unfortunately for Newt, the Gipper had another view of the situation. He withdrew from Lebanon immediately after the Marines were bombed and the CIA station chief was captured and tortured. He sold arms to Iran to fund the contras and he supported Islamists fighting in Afghanistan,including some of today's leaders of the Taliban. The late Jeane Kirkpatrick before she died said that one of the worst mistakes of the Reagan Administration was withdrawing from Lebanon. It's hard to get to Newt's statement from the Big Ron's own actions.

One of the aspects of this Egyptian situation is that it may free us from retaining our Cold War view of the Arab Middle East. It is the last region of the world where the orginal authoritarian regimes we once supported still exist. The events in Cairo are like the last days of the Nixon Doctrine, which called on the United States to preserve stability through a series of American-supported strongmen. Perhaps soon, we will see the Saudi dictatorship meets its demise. Then we can think creatively again and not be stuck in the past, which has seen its day.

It will be interesting to see what edtorial slant Fox news will have in the next few days now that their crew was attacked and beaten by pro-Mubarak goons.

As for me, I am off to the Midwest to count the bodies from the storm of the century.