Stochastic Democracy--2012 Results

From the scholars of Stochastic Democracy,we have their first computer runs for 2012. The full article is posted at the Daily Kos. There they explain the enthusiasm gap in the last four elections and what it means for the future. Then they explain using the Kalman filter in statistics and the "weighted least squares regression model, which includes Obama's approval ratings, partisan identification,past election results and the census information. Then they throw in the "dummy variable". None of which I understand so let's go to the results.

Obama versus Romney:

Romney puts New Hampshire and Main in play. He also takes Indiana and does better than McCain in the Midwest. He is weak in the Southwest, except for Nevada where there is a large Mormon population. Obama in this scenario keeps Virginia and North Carolina.

Electoral Votes: Popular Vote:
Obama--329 51.4%
Romney--209 48.6%

Obama versus Huckabee:

Huckabee shores up the South, wins Indiana and has a better shot than Romney at Ohio. Huckabee would be favored to win North Carolina.

Electoral Votes: Popular Vote:
Obama--314 51.7%
Huckabee--224 48.3%

Obama versus Gingrich

Obama takes virginia, would be favored in North Carolina and Florida and even puts Georgia in play. South Dakota would be in play and Arizona competitive.

Electoral Votes: Popular Vote:
Obama--350 54%
Gungrich--188 46%

Obama versus Palin

This would be a landslide on the order of LBJ in 1966. Obama wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina. He's competitive in Missouri. Even running with the 2010 enthusiasm gap, Obamawould make Georgia, South Carolina and Arizona competitive. he would put South Dakota,Tennessee, Arkansas and Missippi in play. Both would run even in Indiana and Texas. Obama could even start thinking about campaigning in Palin-leaning states--Kentucky, Alaska, Montana, Nebraska and West Virginia.

Electoral Votes: Popular Vote:
Obama--430 57.1%
Palin--108 42.9%

Stochastic Democracy indicates that if the enthusiasm gap stayed at a 2010 level, Mike Huckabee would be the strongest Republican candidate and Romney a close second with a chance at beating Obama.

Apologies for the difference between the spacing of the numbers I see and the printed version