Sam Wang wrote this morning that dealing with the issue of Mittmentum is like shooting fish in a barrel. No there isn't such a thing even if Joe Scarborough says so. For Wang,Obama is at 90% probability and probably will go higher as we inch to the finish line. Today, it is 299EVs Obama to 237Evs Romney with a meta-margin of 1.72.
Nate Silver has to tolerate you because of working for the New York Times. Nate has it 294.1 to 243.9 for Obama,73% probability of win, and 50.2% popular.
Intratrade got rid of the Romney investor and is at 62.9%.
Rand Tracking is at 50.56 to 44.64 Obama.
Romney had to cancel yesterday two events out of Ohio because his campaign has found there are in a deeper hole than previously thought. So fresh with Meatloaf's endorsement, Romney said that Chrysler was going to ship its Jeep operations that affect Ohio to China. Chrysler shot back that they had no such intentions.
Politico talked with the Obama campaign who said they had double-digit leads among women in the Swing states like Ohio and that this held to all swing states and they remained confident.
Romney and Ryan will be spending some of this weekend raising funds. Their Boston headquarters told investors to pony up because they are behind 2-3 points in swing states and need the loot for their final ad blitz. Over 30% of the election ads will be aired in the next ten days. Pity all those in a swing state. I have already received ten calls a night for the last three days from polling firms and political campaigns.
Scott Rasmussen talked today about Obama winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote to Romney.
Nice Obama "Forward" theme song by will.i.am--catch it.
Hillary Clinton will stay on as Secretary of State a little while after the election and into the second term.
Consumer sentiment is at its highest in five years. Gallup reports more people think they are better off than 5 years ago. The GDP unexpectedly rose 2.2%, higher than expectations. All we fear before the election is the next jobs report next Friday.
Remember--by next Thursday night you should know who will be the next President of the United States. Vote and Vote early.
Showing posts with label Intratrade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Intratrade. Show all posts
Friday, October 26, 2012
Monday, October 15, 2012
What A Difference A Day Makes
++Rand Tracking heads back upward. President Obama 49.1 to Romney 46.6. They are now in the 95% likely zone Obama will be re-elected.
++Intratrade is back to 62.5%.
++Battleground GWU : Obama 49 to Romney 48.
++Washington Post/ABC--President Obama 49 to Romney 46. Obama still retains likeability, concern for the middle class, and is the guy concerned about your issues. Romney is still the guy who looks out for the wealthy.
++IBD/TPP poll--Romney is losing all the non-white vote--Asian, African-American, Hispanic by 88 to 7%.
++The PPP polls which made the races in Florida and North Carolina look tight shows that Romney has been given a booster in opening huge margins among the white voters. He is exceeding the numbers necessary for him to win, pushing Obama into the 30s.
++So, Go West, Young Man. It's clear that the old Southern strategy for the Republican Party is trying to get legs to move North. President Obama would be wise to campaign more in Colorado and Nevada because banking on Florida and North Carolina is not the best move. Virginia is still a possibility since Northerners have moved into Virginia over the years diluting its Confederate culture and Virginia is home to thousands of employees of the federal government.
++TPM Polltracker has President Obama back on top 49.1 to Romney 46.6.
++Nate the Great Silver says the early morning polls would push Obama to 66%.
++Intratrade is back to 62.5%.
++Battleground GWU : Obama 49 to Romney 48.
++Washington Post/ABC--President Obama 49 to Romney 46. Obama still retains likeability, concern for the middle class, and is the guy concerned about your issues. Romney is still the guy who looks out for the wealthy.
++IBD/TPP poll--Romney is losing all the non-white vote--Asian, African-American, Hispanic by 88 to 7%.
++The PPP polls which made the races in Florida and North Carolina look tight shows that Romney has been given a booster in opening huge margins among the white voters. He is exceeding the numbers necessary for him to win, pushing Obama into the 30s.
++So, Go West, Young Man. It's clear that the old Southern strategy for the Republican Party is trying to get legs to move North. President Obama would be wise to campaign more in Colorado and Nevada because banking on Florida and North Carolina is not the best move. Virginia is still a possibility since Northerners have moved into Virginia over the years diluting its Confederate culture and Virginia is home to thousands of employees of the federal government.
++TPM Polltracker has President Obama back on top 49.1 to Romney 46.6.
++Nate the Great Silver says the early morning polls would push Obama to 66%.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Partial Post Debate Polls
++Rasmussen Tracking Poll, with one day post debate polling, Obama 49 Romney 47, 1 Other and 3% undecided. Obama's approval rating 50%.
++Intratrade odds on Obama's re-election 70.7%. It popped 7% on the jobs report.
++Gallup Tracking. Obama 50 to Romney 45.
++Rasmussen OHIO 50 Obama 49 Romney
++Rasmussen FlORIDA Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Caution WE ASK AMERICA, puled their Ohio poll before the debate and said they go back into the field.
OHIO Romney 47- Obama 46
FLORIDA Romney 49-Obama 46.
++Latino Decisions Nevada Obama 78 to Romney 17.
FLORIDA Obama 61 to Romney 31.
++Obama in Hispanic poll of Telemundo/Wall Street Journal 71%.
++Obama in CNN poll 73%.
Bill McInturff, the Republican who conducted the Wall Street Journal poll, said 70% was a significant number and a warning to Romney because by losing by that much would be very difficult to overcome.
++Rand Life Panel Tracking poll. Obama 50 to Romney 44.
++The Dow hit a five year high today and the S&P had its best yearly run since 2009.
++Intratrade odds on Obama's re-election 70.7%. It popped 7% on the jobs report.
++Gallup Tracking. Obama 50 to Romney 45.
++Rasmussen OHIO 50 Obama 49 Romney
++Rasmussen FlORIDA Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Caution WE ASK AMERICA, puled their Ohio poll before the debate and said they go back into the field.
OHIO Romney 47- Obama 46
FLORIDA Romney 49-Obama 46.
++Latino Decisions Nevada Obama 78 to Romney 17.
FLORIDA Obama 61 to Romney 31.
++Obama in Hispanic poll of Telemundo/Wall Street Journal 71%.
++Obama in CNN poll 73%.
Bill McInturff, the Republican who conducted the Wall Street Journal poll, said 70% was a significant number and a warning to Romney because by losing by that much would be very difficult to overcome.
++Rand Life Panel Tracking poll. Obama 50 to Romney 44.
++The Dow hit a five year high today and the S&P had its best yearly run since 2009.
Friday, September 28, 2012
The Morning Numbers
++Intratrade hit all-time high of 77.4% for Obama.
++Intratrade now is taking bets on states:
Ohio--80% Obama
Florida--68%
Virginia--73%
++Economist/You Gov Obama 48 to Romney 43.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist
New Hampshire Obama 51 to Romney 44
Nevada Obama 49 to Romney 47
North Carolina Obama 48 to Romney 46
++Intratrade now is taking bets on states:
Ohio--80% Obama
Florida--68%
Virginia--73%
++Economist/You Gov Obama 48 to Romney 43.
++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist
New Hampshire Obama 51 to Romney 44
Nevada Obama 49 to Romney 47
North Carolina Obama 48 to Romney 46
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Does one Wish a Happy Yom Kippur?
++For those celebrating Yom Kippur have a blessed and meaningful one. Mitt Romney can't because he doesn't apologize, let alone atone.
++Nate Silver has put Obama at 81.9% and popular vote at 51.3% and Romney at 47.6%.
++Intratrade is at Obama 75 and Romney 25.
++Princeton Consortium claims their popular vote margin has hit a high of 5% and electoral vote is 343 to 195.
++TPM has Obama at 49.1%, which is their highest in three years. Obama has a 4.9% lead in the popular vote.
++Most important is the Presidential Halloween Mask Index. Obama has sold 69% to Romney's 31%. For the BUY COSTUMES Stories, they have been right for three consecutive elections and for Spirit Masks, the makers of the Halloween Masks, they have called it the last four elections.
++Nate Silver has put Obama at 81.9% and popular vote at 51.3% and Romney at 47.6%.
++Intratrade is at Obama 75 and Romney 25.
++Princeton Consortium claims their popular vote margin has hit a high of 5% and electoral vote is 343 to 195.
++TPM has Obama at 49.1%, which is their highest in three years. Obama has a 4.9% lead in the popular vote.
++Most important is the Presidential Halloween Mask Index. Obama has sold 69% to Romney's 31%. For the BUY COSTUMES Stories, they have been right for three consecutive elections and for Spirit Masks, the makers of the Halloween Masks, they have called it the last four elections.
7-Eleven Landslide
++Intratrade has it 74.7% probability Obama will win.
++The Most important indicator of the election if the 7-Eleven poll. Obama leads 58 to Romney 42.
++AP is reporting late in the day that the Obama campaign is thinking of buying ad time in Arizona and making a run at that state with a large Hispanic vote. Last time the campaign decided McCain's advantage as native son made the gamble too costly. It all depends on the cash on hand and what they think they can do to help Richard Carmona win the Senate seat.
++The Obama campaign is trying to lower expectations for the debates because President Obama has had few practice sessions compared to Romney and hasn't debated since 2008 while Willard debated throughout the primary season.
++October Surprise? I always think Republican in this regard but then there was the W.Bush DUI sprung by Gore at the end of the 2000 campaign.
So some have suggested an Obama surprise on Romney's taxes. Rumors have circulated that Willard asked for the tax Amnesty in 2009 for those having overseas bank accounts. While observers note that there would be blowback if the Obama administration leaked this from the IRS or Eric Holder's office, there is nothing to prevent the UBS whistleblower from declaring one of the names he gave Justice was Willard Romney or his wife Ann. So keep in mind the name Bradley Birkenfeld. He was the UBS whistleblower who got a reward of $104 million for ratting out Americans with Swiss bank accounts.
++The Most important indicator of the election if the 7-Eleven poll. Obama leads 58 to Romney 42.
++AP is reporting late in the day that the Obama campaign is thinking of buying ad time in Arizona and making a run at that state with a large Hispanic vote. Last time the campaign decided McCain's advantage as native son made the gamble too costly. It all depends on the cash on hand and what they think they can do to help Richard Carmona win the Senate seat.
++The Obama campaign is trying to lower expectations for the debates because President Obama has had few practice sessions compared to Romney and hasn't debated since 2008 while Willard debated throughout the primary season.
++October Surprise? I always think Republican in this regard but then there was the W.Bush DUI sprung by Gore at the end of the 2000 campaign.
So some have suggested an Obama surprise on Romney's taxes. Rumors have circulated that Willard asked for the tax Amnesty in 2009 for those having overseas bank accounts. While observers note that there would be blowback if the Obama administration leaked this from the IRS or Eric Holder's office, there is nothing to prevent the UBS whistleblower from declaring one of the names he gave Justice was Willard Romney or his wife Ann. So keep in mind the name Bradley Birkenfeld. He was the UBS whistleblower who got a reward of $104 million for ratting out Americans with Swiss bank accounts.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
State Of Play--July 22
++The Electoral vote is aligning together:
Electoral Vote.com 332 Obama 206 Romney
Election Projection 303 Obama 235 Romney
538 332 Obama 206 Romney
Princeton Consortium 332 Obama 206 Romney
Real Clear Politics 332 Obama 206 Romney
Obama on Intratrade yesterday 60.2%
Nate Silver on Romney's chances today: 32%
Intratrade on Romney today: 36.5%
++The reason Obama remains in decent shape is that he has led in 90% of Swing State polls during this cycle. Romney would have to take the lead and hold it for several polls until the dynamic would change.
++The alignment of the Electoral vote tallies has to do with recent Florida polls showing Obama in a lead. For instance, the Survey USA poll shows Obama with a 48 to 43 lead. Most importantly, the poll shows Obama way ahead with those who use cellphones.
++A few other observations. Larry Sabato said today that independents really only constitute 5-6% of the electorate. Nate Silver says they break toward the incumbent but then again we haven't seen the money deluge yet and the effects of voter suppression efforts. Also Obama in the past week has registered larger leads in the Gallup poll hitting a 48-44 lead. The likely voter filter is being put on more polls, which should favor Republicans but that doesn't seem to be true this year.
++Remember no Ohio, no Republican president. While Calvin Coolidge won but lost Florida and Virginia, he didn't lose Ohio. Never been done by a winning Republican. In the Republican Rasmussen poll,Obama has a 47 to 45 lead over Romney in Ohio and the Swing State polls showed Obama with a slightly larger lead in Ohio.
++The multiple tracking sites have the Republicans picking up Indiana and North Carolina this year. The only real bright spot for Romney in the state polls was a right-leaning Civitas poll showing he has a 49-48 lead over President Obama in North Carolina.
++PPP shows Obama up 49-44 in New Mexico.
++University of New Hampshire shows Obama at 49-45 and ARG has Obama up by 51 to 43 in New Hampshire.
++Obama's best state is New York at 61-34 in the Siena poll and Pepperdine shows him up 52 to 33 in California.
++Two Nevada polls show Obama in the lead. Magellan has him at 50-46 and We Ask America has it 49-43.
++Decision Latino shows Obama with an overwhelming lead among Latino voters. Among naturalized citizens 72 to 19. Among U.S. born Latinos 69 to 25.
++Rasmussen has Obama leading Pennsylvania 48 to 44.
++Almost all these polls were done prior to the whole controversy over Romney's taxes and whether he will release any more. We haven't seen the impact of the Obama ads on Romney's taxes on the polls, if any. Pollsters are saying that the two sides look locked in now and that all the rest of the campaign will be struggling over a few percentage of voters.
Electoral Vote.com 332 Obama 206 Romney
Election Projection 303 Obama 235 Romney
538 332 Obama 206 Romney
Princeton Consortium 332 Obama 206 Romney
Real Clear Politics 332 Obama 206 Romney
Obama on Intratrade yesterday 60.2%
Nate Silver on Romney's chances today: 32%
Intratrade on Romney today: 36.5%
++The reason Obama remains in decent shape is that he has led in 90% of Swing State polls during this cycle. Romney would have to take the lead and hold it for several polls until the dynamic would change.
++The alignment of the Electoral vote tallies has to do with recent Florida polls showing Obama in a lead. For instance, the Survey USA poll shows Obama with a 48 to 43 lead. Most importantly, the poll shows Obama way ahead with those who use cellphones.
++A few other observations. Larry Sabato said today that independents really only constitute 5-6% of the electorate. Nate Silver says they break toward the incumbent but then again we haven't seen the money deluge yet and the effects of voter suppression efforts. Also Obama in the past week has registered larger leads in the Gallup poll hitting a 48-44 lead. The likely voter filter is being put on more polls, which should favor Republicans but that doesn't seem to be true this year.
++Remember no Ohio, no Republican president. While Calvin Coolidge won but lost Florida and Virginia, he didn't lose Ohio. Never been done by a winning Republican. In the Republican Rasmussen poll,Obama has a 47 to 45 lead over Romney in Ohio and the Swing State polls showed Obama with a slightly larger lead in Ohio.
++The multiple tracking sites have the Republicans picking up Indiana and North Carolina this year. The only real bright spot for Romney in the state polls was a right-leaning Civitas poll showing he has a 49-48 lead over President Obama in North Carolina.
++PPP shows Obama up 49-44 in New Mexico.
++University of New Hampshire shows Obama at 49-45 and ARG has Obama up by 51 to 43 in New Hampshire.
++Obama's best state is New York at 61-34 in the Siena poll and Pepperdine shows him up 52 to 33 in California.
++Two Nevada polls show Obama in the lead. Magellan has him at 50-46 and We Ask America has it 49-43.
++Decision Latino shows Obama with an overwhelming lead among Latino voters. Among naturalized citizens 72 to 19. Among U.S. born Latinos 69 to 25.
++Rasmussen has Obama leading Pennsylvania 48 to 44.
++Almost all these polls were done prior to the whole controversy over Romney's taxes and whether he will release any more. We haven't seen the impact of the Obama ads on Romney's taxes on the polls, if any. Pollsters are saying that the two sides look locked in now and that all the rest of the campaign will be struggling over a few percentage of voters.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Election Over:Dubya Backs Romney
++ George W said he was for Romney today. I thought he would do a bin Laden and back Obama.
++The Obama campaign,in my opinion, lost their cool today by protesting the CBS/New York Times poll that shows Romney beating Obama 46 to 43 and getting most of the women. There will be thousands more polls until November. Keep cool. Don't sweat it.
++Both campaigns beat each other up today over the competing Bain ads. Only serves to muddy the waters and cast doubt on Romney as a so-called "job creator".
++Rasmussen tracking has it 47 to 45 Romney; Gallup's tracking has it 46 to 45 Obama.
++Today in history, John Kerry was up by 6 against George W. in 2004.
++Gallup has 56% Americans believing Obama will be re-elected and 36% Romney. During the last 4 presidential elections, this type of prediction by Americans has been accurate.
++Intratrade still has Obama winning with 59.5%. These are people betting real money.
++The Siena poll has Obama 57 to 37 over Romney.
++PPP has Obama 53 to Romney 41 in new Hampshire. Obama enjoys a huge gender gap. The lead is bigger than Obama's 2008 victory. If it held up, Romney would lose all of his home states except for his religious capital of Utah. New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Michigan and California.
++PPP has a worrisome poll showing Obama beating Romney by only one point in Wisconsin 47 to 46.
++Romney is trying to get under Obama's skin by suggesting there is bad blood between Obama and the Clintons. A real play of GOP games with the Clintons in 2008 or just another attempt by thin-skinned Romney trying to project the same anger issues on Obama?
++The Obama campaign,in my opinion, lost their cool today by protesting the CBS/New York Times poll that shows Romney beating Obama 46 to 43 and getting most of the women. There will be thousands more polls until November. Keep cool. Don't sweat it.
++Both campaigns beat each other up today over the competing Bain ads. Only serves to muddy the waters and cast doubt on Romney as a so-called "job creator".
++Rasmussen tracking has it 47 to 45 Romney; Gallup's tracking has it 46 to 45 Obama.
++Today in history, John Kerry was up by 6 against George W. in 2004.
++Gallup has 56% Americans believing Obama will be re-elected and 36% Romney. During the last 4 presidential elections, this type of prediction by Americans has been accurate.
++Intratrade still has Obama winning with 59.5%. These are people betting real money.
++The Siena poll has Obama 57 to 37 over Romney.
++PPP has Obama 53 to Romney 41 in new Hampshire. Obama enjoys a huge gender gap. The lead is bigger than Obama's 2008 victory. If it held up, Romney would lose all of his home states except for his religious capital of Utah. New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Michigan and California.
++PPP has a worrisome poll showing Obama beating Romney by only one point in Wisconsin 47 to 46.
++Romney is trying to get under Obama's skin by suggesting there is bad blood between Obama and the Clintons. A real play of GOP games with the Clintons in 2008 or just another attempt by thin-skinned Romney trying to project the same anger issues on Obama?
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