MittaTopia

++Congratulations to Michael Phelps for becoming the record holder of most Olympic medals won of all time--19 now and counting and also the most gold medals by a large margin.


++Ann Romney's Dancing Horse won't be competing until Friday and Mitt promises to release his taxes if the horse wins the gold.


++Harry Reid this afternoon dropped a bomb on Romney by saying a Bain investor told him that Romney hadn't paid income taxes for ten years. Reid, a fellow Mormon, said Mitt's father would be ashamed. While he didn't know whether it was true, this just ups the ante on Romney and increases pressure as he returns from his world tour of three countries.


++Dudley Do-Right and his wife Nell return from Poland tomorrow after the Republican candidate managed to offend almost everyone except Bibi Netanyahu. In Israel, he promised to establish an embassy in Jerusalem calling it the capital of Israel. Not only did the Arab world express outrage but the Chinese even weighed on denouncing Romney. Ignoring the realities of Palestinian life, Romney suggested it was their culture that led to their lack of economic progress, prompting Palestinian leaders to cry him a racist. Minutes before a meeting with the Israeli opposition parties he cancelled at the request of Bibi. 


++Onward to Poland where a decrepit Lech Walesa endorsed his candidacy while Solidarity denounced him for his attacks on labor. Romney said that Russia posed the greatest strategic threat to the United States and he made a speech on the virtues of liberty. He did not comment on the trials in Russia of Pussy Revolt, the punk rock band on trial for hate crimes against the Orthodox Church. Canada's National Post charged that Romney had lapsed into political rhetoric and thought we haven't seen since the late 1980s. They likened it to George H.W. Bush against Gorbachev. 


++Romney's press secretary had a Ron Ziegler moment when he told the press corps this morning to "Kiss my ass", when he blocked them asking questions of the candidate. He screamed that the Tomb of the Unknown soldier was a "sacred site." 


++American media blasted the Romney trip as clumsy and gaffe-prone. Romney criticized the press accusing them of being pro-Obama. But even Republican operatives said that the trip bordered on lunacy. By the end of the day, the press secretary apologized and Romney walked back many of his statements which he claimed were mis-quotes and statements taken out of context.


++Mark Helperin on the Morning Joe show was praying that a bad jobs report would save Romney from this disaster and placed the election back into his court.


++The Greenberg poll released yesterday had Obama at 50 to Romney's 46 and Obama's approval at 50.


++Today PPP poll has Obama barely ahead 48-47 in Florida.


++A new Latin Decisions poll has Obama in the high 70s among Latino voters and Romney in the teens, a fatal number for Romney.


++The question is who will have the worse August. What began with a bad jobs report for Obama ended with several weeks of sheer mayhem by the Romney camp.


++Romney just released three new ads touting his achievements, including boasting he had the best jobs record as governor of Massachusetts, something that is flat wrong. 


++The Obama campaign now admits they will be outspent the rest of the way but are boasting of their superior organization. It has actually been stunning how poor Romney's organization has been both in the field as an elections campaign and how disorganized they were with this foreign trip.


++Republicans are banking on their superior discipline to put on a tight convention and to allow Romney to introduce himself again to the public. The Democrats have been fast off the block by lining up Elizabeth Warren and Bill Clinton to nominate President Obama and their first Latino keynote address.  Then we all wait for the debates.


++What will be the October Surprise--Bibi's attack on Iran, a scandal with Romney's taxes? 

The Old Pennsylvania Gambit

++The country has paid dearly for the failure of Republicans not to think strategically. But sometimes This can be an advantage in national elections. "The Pennsylvania gambit" refers to the McCain's campaign in 2008 insisting they had a shot at the state even though every poll showed Obama's lead was insurmountable. So they publicly abandoned Michigan, demoralizing Michigan Republicans as well as McCain's running mate Sarah Palin, who vowed to campaign among the union members with her husband Todd. Now after the Wisconsin recall, we have Reince Preibus and the Romney campaign vowing to pour resources and campaign in Wisconsin instead of Michigan. The national GOP now believes Wisconsin is a swing state.


++The exit polls from Wisconsin show Obama has a 54-42 edge over Romney. Remember the students did not vote, partly because of new voter restrictions. But of the Obama voters who did vote for Walker, the chances of Romney getting their vote is slim to none. 10% of the Wisconsin voters were opposed to the recall and voted for Walker. That was an insurmountable percentage for Barrett to overcome. But consider another answer, the vast majority of voters said that Romney's ties to Trump and his work at Bain made them less likely to vote for him. So have at it ,boys, Romney could tour the state with the Koch Brothers. 


++Now about that Swing State of Pennsylvania, Franklin Marshall's poll shows Obama leading 48 to 36. Some swing state.


++PPP shows Obama leads in Romney in Florida 50 to 46--that's conditional whether any voters will be left on the rolls after Governor Scott's purge.


++PPP did another national poll which shows Obama 50 to Romney's 42. Pew has Obama up by 7, an improvement of a month ago and CNN has Obama 49 to 46 with an approval rating of 52%. Strangely, all these polls were conducted after the horrible jobs report and do not indicate any softening of Obama's support.


++Much concern has been expressed about Obama cutting back on ads in swing states. The campaign is saving they are keeping their powder dry because they expect a flood of Superpac money going after them in early fall. 

The Romney Bump--Polls Galore

Gallup tracking--48 Romney,43 Obama


Pew  49 Obama, Romney 45. Gender Gap 23
  ( A month ago--Obama by 12)


Wisconsin: Obama 50 Romney 44
 (A Month ago--Obama 53, Romney 39)


PPP: Florida: Obama 50 Romney 45


Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 47 Romney 43
(A Month ago Obama was up by 11)


CNN/ORC: Obama 52 Romney 43. Gender Gap 16


Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in North Carolina


Expect many more polls now that pollsters have declared primary season over. Nate Silver warns us that it is best to take the averages of polls at this stage because some polls (Rasmussen) have built-in bias at this stage. He also warns people like me not to make much of the cross-tabs of these early polls because they base their conclusions on too small samples. And lastly he warns us all not to learn too much from American history because the number of presidential elections we have had in the age of polling is still too small. So Caveat Emptor.


Even those polls showing Obama's leads reflect a bump for Romney, largely because the winner of a primary season gets a bounce. Now both campaigns were try to define each other. The GOP want this to be a referendum on the president. The Democrats want this to be an election of two dramatically opposed visions of a democratic society.