Obama Abroad

In the last days of George W., the United States dropped to seventh place as the most admired country. With the election of Barack Obama and his first year, it has climbed back to number 1. This has alot of implications both in terms of the effectiveness of our foreign policy to the likelihood someone might buy our products. It also makes it easier for our people serving overseas trying to persuade people of this or that. The diminished respect of the United States in the last few years of the Bush Administration made getting international agreements difficult if not impossible. For instance, the Bush Administration tried to resettle the detainees from Gitmo without success, while Barack Obama has gained cooperation from European countries as well as far-flung states like Georgia and Palau on the Gitmo issue.

The President flew off to my favorite Central European city, Prague, to sign the nuclear armns treaty with Dmitri Medvedev at the Castle. The treaty is a natural follow up to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Despite the hoopla the last few days by the Right, both sides are really not giving up much but the sign of a reduction of nuclear stockpiles by one-third is meant to open the door to broader cooperation--particularly on the issue of Iran. It is thought that his private meeting with Medvedev will be solely occupied with the issue of sanctions on Iran. The view is that the United States and Russia agree to a unified position before China is brought into the discussion. While in Prague, President Obama will be hosting a private dinner with 11 heads of state from Eastern and Central Europe to assure them of America's continued commitment despite this thaw with Russia.

On April 12-13, 47 heads of state will be holding a nuclear arms summit in Washington,D.C. the purpose of the summit is to deal with the issue of loose nuclear materials floating around and being traded clandestinely. The broad theme of the next two weeks is to gain broad international cooperation against nuclear proliferation, which remains the strategic nightmare of most defense experts. During the time of this meeting, President Obama will be meeting with China's president Hu Jintao about the Iranian situation. I expect we might see some economic news come out of that meeting since Timothy Geitner is travelling there now and withheld the Treasury Report on the Chinese currency.

The conservative responses today to the President's changes in our nuclear doctrine read like he signed a non-aggression pact with Hitler. The conservatives don't remember the desire of both parties to get rid of nuclear weapons. Guiliani said that this was the historic goal of the Left. Maybe so, but it came to be the thinking of both Reagan and Bush I with the end of the Cold War. Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar aggressively pursued this issue until the George W. Bush years. It also has much to do with new potential threats and not the classic Cold War thinking. A not so hidden agenda is to put indirect pressure on China to be more forthcoming about its own nuclear program and plans. The United States is still considered the big kid on the block in terms of nuclear weapons and exerts the dominant authority in the world on the subject. It is not just our pre-eminence as a world power that is at work here but UN agencies and the IAEA depend on American expertise on nuclear matters. The President's initiative in this matter is leading by example and favorably influences the global debate in our direction. But if you really believe we can act unilaterally and don't need this "soft power", make your own argument.

One of the items that clearly upset conservatives and they will not mention it publically is that Barack Obama reversed George W. Bush's doctrine of using nuclear weapons if the United States is subject to a biological or chemical attack of any sort. I also get the hint there were options to nuclear strikes against cyber attacks. The problem with this is that the source of such attacks is diffcult to determine with any certainty and there seem to be enough non-nuclear deterrance in play to make the issue mute.

The other issue driving conservatives up the wall is Barack Obama ordering the National Security Council to remove the sentence about "Islamic radicalism being the most important strategic threat against the United States in the early 21st century". This act combined with these nuclear measures was aimed at shoring up cooperation among Arab states for American initiatives on Iran and the future Middle East Peace Plan. Again, if you are not in favor of negotiations of any sort, this is not apt to appeal to you.

In June, the President is scheduled to travel to Indonesia to make another pitch for a dialogue with Muslim countries. This is a country where he spent years in grammar school and learned the local language. His mother worked for USAID there during a time of civil war. What is interesting about his mother's work was her support of microenterprise for women. This past year her doctoral thesis on the subject was printed and got favorable press in Indonesia. No doubt his trip will provoke a return of the right's charges he was educated in a madrassa.

Believe it or not the board on economic cycles--there is such a thing--has declared the recession over. It may not feel like it but technically two quarters of growth mark the break of the decline. But the Fed warns that unemployment will continue to remain high and home foreclosures will increase, putting a damper on the recovery. You will not hear any applause from the Right. A poll was released today that says that a majority of Americans still say George W. Bush is responsible for the economy, over 20 % say the Democrats in Congress and the two lowest people are Republicans in Congress and the President at about 9%. The last item is odd.

Now we know how the largest middle class tax cut is being spun. Drudge reports tonight "Rob Their Neighbor"--half American households will not pay federal income tax this year. Under Reagan, this would be "Morning in America". So I guess class warfare is alright if it's richer against poor. You will see this as the new meme of the Republicans and the tea party crowd, which actually believes taxes have gone up under Obama. Don't worry we won't hear about corporations not paying a centavo to the IRS. The Democrats are going to have to be better at playing this phenomenon.

Another healthcare assassin has been arrested. A man made serious threats to Nancy Pelosi and has been arrested. The incident was creepy in that he called her husband at work and got their home phone.