We'll Meet Again,Don't Know Where, Don't Know When...

President Obama is sapping our bodily fluids again. Late last night the New York Times published a piece about his changing American nuclear doctrine. Then Drudge printed the red-headlines--" not even after a biological attack"--early this morning "not even in self-defense" and by 10 this morning "Is Obama Disarming the United States?". A more sober Pentagon analyst described why the current nuclear doctrine was an antique from the Cold War and that Obama inserting hesitation before retaliating stems from the looseness in the Russian arsenals. It is true we can't threaten first strike anymore to free South Ossetia but that should not deter those deliberately misinforming the public about another initiative by the Administration.

This is a big week for nukes. Thursday President Obama will sign the New Start Treaty in Prague and return to a summit of 40 world leaders here in Washington to discuss nuclear arms. Don't worry. You can be sure that our pundits will disgrace themselves with alot of fatuous talk based on little or no first-hand knowledge of the subject.

Marc Ambinder claims Justice Stevens will step down in a month. While several names have been floated to replace him, it's probable that the next nominee will have been approved by the Senate before for another post. That would put in the lead Elena Kagan , the Soliciter General. Senator Kyl has threatened to filibuster Obama's nominee. If it happens, that would only be the second time the Senate has filibustered a nominee to the Supreme Court. The last time happened when LBJ nominated Abe Fortis to become the Chief Justice.

There are conflicting reports about how ambitious the administration will be the rest of the year before Congress gets into the full-swing for the mid-terms. Finance Reform is next up, having past the House last year and now struggling in the Senate. When President Obama met with Hispanic leaders during the healthcare debate, he promised that immigration reform would happen within a year. As I've written before, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already said that it's the Senate's turn to actually pass a law. The other piece of major business would be an Energy Bill. With Obama's embrace of nuclear plants and off-shore drilling, I can't imagine him passing up the remaining legislative session of Congress without some energy bill. He alienated his base by this move without getting anything in return.

So far the picture for mid-term elections appear rather murky. The Democratic House Campaign Committee has a wopping $20 to $6 million spread over the Republicans. And the RNC is simply bleeding to death with its multiple scandals and personnel leaving. Also, Republican incumbents are facing numerous primary challenges from tea party-backed candidates. This has brought glee to people like the Torture King Marc Thiessen, who wrote a column this morning about how Republican incumbents need to be alarmed. The Republicans are talking like this is 1994 again but they have no visible leader to mirror New Gingrich's role. Also, the Republicans could capitalize on Democratic scandals, the failed Hilarycare plan and Don't Ask, Don't Tell, which Clinton implemented. So right now, it's anyone's guess and anyone around here knows you can't tell anything until after Labor Day.

Meg Whitman is trying to do a Bloomberg in California, pumping another $20 million of her fortune into the race for Governor. What's strange about this is that she still only has a three-point lead over Jerry Brown who has not yet begun to campaign. I wouldn't be surpised to see the final race come in about 1/4 of a billion dollars. Meanwhile, Tom Campbell seems to be holding his own against Carly Fiorina, who also is dumping big bucks into the campaign for Senate.

All the national polls place Jobs as the number 1 issue ,far outstripping health reform. Virtually no foreign affairs issues are even in the top ten issues--terrorism has about 5% of Americans concerned. No doubt this can change in a moment's notice but the Democrats' fate hinges on the ability of the economy to produce jobs for the next several months with no perceptible lags. A wild card in all this is what the whole tea party thing really means electorally. Do these people even vote? They claim they do but so far there is no empirical evidence for this.

Al Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson seem to be reverting to their old forms. They are meeting with the Second Amendment Foundation, which is one of the groups holding their gun rally in Washington. Their discussion centers around promoting gun ownership among black Americans. The logic escapes me.

When Congress gets back, expect to see movement to approve representation of Washington,D.C. in the House. This is in return for another seat for Utah. This issues has been moving under the radar for the last several years but has increasingly developed bi-partisan support.

There are reasons we root for underdogs--because the odds are long they will succeed. So, valiant Butler gave it a go but lost the NCAA to Duke.

For anyone reading this blog, you will understand why China is about to announce a trade deficit. Paul Krugman explained this in "A Country is not a Company" with his analysis of Mexico's development in the 1990s. But our financial press are shocked by this news. So I would look to China devaluing their currency soon, which will be good news for us.

Hamid Karzai is threatening to join the Taliban --again. Of course, the minute he would do this they would execute him--which he also knows. After closing Burger King in Kabul, Obama's biggest mistake in Afghanistan is actually developing a strategy to stabilize the central government. He would have been better off taking Joe Biden's advice--focus on the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan , do as much damage to Al Qaeda and the Taliban and leaving.

Iraq looks like it's in an endless wrestling match to form a new government after the elections. What is at stake is how influential Tehran will be in the future of the country. The Rand Corporation just issued a study that showed that the Iraq War actually stymied the democratization of neighboring Arab states, who were flirting with greater pluralism. The Sunnis were repulsed by the prospects of another Shi'ite country emerging on their borders.

Israel has threatened the Palestinians not to declare a state. This is getting old.

President Obama expects new sanctions against Iran in the next few weeks. Iran has enormous economic challenges with 20% unemployment and a similar rate of inflation and a serious balance of trade problem since they import most of the finished oil products. Top Iranian atomic scientists have defected to the United States and there are reports that the Israeli and CIA efforts to slow down the nuclear program have been successful. Israeli military officials have claimed they will strike before November, while Tehran has responded they will send a missile into Tel Aviv. Watch this ballet for the next few months. Our conservatives will be pressing for military action against Tehran in the next few months as they have already written off sanctions as unworkable.