Clinton 79%
Trump 18%
That is higher than Obama in '08 or '12.
There is an expectation that Hispanic turnout will be +17 over '12. Or an additional 2-3.5 million votes. Pew expects 13.1 to 14.7 million Hispanic voters.
Showing posts with label Latino decisions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Latino decisions. Show all posts
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Saturday, October 1, 2016
LATINO DECISIONS TRACKING POLL
++Thank God for Latinos,Blacks and Women.
++Clinton 71%
Trump 18%
++They report more enthusiasm since the last poll. Remember Obama won Latinos by 68% to 26%.
++Clinton 71%
Trump 18%
++They report more enthusiasm since the last poll. Remember Obama won Latinos by 68% to 26%.
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Latino Decisions Recalibrates
++Latino Decisions , who had been using the 40% figure to project a GOP victory in 2016, have refigured their numbers and now believe the GOP can only win with 42% or maybe as high as 47% of the vote.
++They compared Mitt Romney's numbers and George W. Bush's numbers and calculated the increase in the Latino population since 2012. The numbers are bleak for the GOP.
++They compared Mitt Romney's numbers and George W. Bush's numbers and calculated the increase in the Latino population since 2012. The numbers are bleak for the GOP.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Election Eve
++Over 2900 separate polls have been conducted,$6 billion spent and countless television hours reviewing the possible scenarios for the results. So after all is well and done, we will probably end up tomorrow with the same system we have today. Democrats will probably pick up a seat in the Senate, the President will be re-elected and the Democrats will pick up some House seats but the Republicans retain control of the House.
++The actual toss-up states come down to North Carolina and Florida. The remarkable story about North Carolina is that by Saturday 49.7% of all African-Americans had voted and 61% of them were women. White early voter turnout was 38.7%. Even if Romney wins this state, this is a story that should be told. Florida has turned into a Banana Republic with voters waiting up to eight hours to vote, if they can.
++I am blind from the over 100 polls released since Friday. But let's just summarize people's predictions.
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says Obama wins with 290 electoral votes. The Senate will be 53 to 47 and Democrats will pick up 3 House seats.
Kos of the Daily Kos predicts Obama with 332 EV to Romney 206.
The University of Illinois predicts Obama with 303.6EV to Romney 234.4. Obama's probability of re-election is 99.8%.
At 8: 30pm EST, Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium has Obama at 309 EV and Romney at 229. With a prediction probability of 99.8%.
Nate Silver at the 538 blog has Obama at 307.2 and Romney at 230.8 with Obama at 86.3% chance of winning with 50.6% of the vote to 48.5%.
PPP Final Electoral College: Obama 303 EV to Romney 191. 44 Toss-ups. Florida and North Carolina.
Intrade: Obama 303 EV.
++Latino Decisions final poll has Obama winning72.9% of the vote and Romney at 27.1%.
++Final ABC/Washington Post poll: Obama 50 to Romney 47.
++Rand Tracking: Obama 50 to Romney 45.5.
++YouGov. National: Obama 49 to Romney 47.
++Final DailyKos/SEIU poll: Obama 50 to Romney 48.
++Final Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48 to Romney 46.
++Gallup: Romney 49 to Obama 48.
++PPP: Obama 50 to Romney 48.
++Onsight Public Affairs: Obama 50 to Romney 46.
++Last Gallup approval rating before election day: 52%.
++The actual toss-up states come down to North Carolina and Florida. The remarkable story about North Carolina is that by Saturday 49.7% of all African-Americans had voted and 61% of them were women. White early voter turnout was 38.7%. Even if Romney wins this state, this is a story that should be told. Florida has turned into a Banana Republic with voters waiting up to eight hours to vote, if they can.
++I am blind from the over 100 polls released since Friday. But let's just summarize people's predictions.
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says Obama wins with 290 electoral votes. The Senate will be 53 to 47 and Democrats will pick up 3 House seats.
Kos of the Daily Kos predicts Obama with 332 EV to Romney 206.
The University of Illinois predicts Obama with 303.6EV to Romney 234.4. Obama's probability of re-election is 99.8%.
At 8: 30pm EST, Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium has Obama at 309 EV and Romney at 229. With a prediction probability of 99.8%.
Nate Silver at the 538 blog has Obama at 307.2 and Romney at 230.8 with Obama at 86.3% chance of winning with 50.6% of the vote to 48.5%.
PPP Final Electoral College: Obama 303 EV to Romney 191. 44 Toss-ups. Florida and North Carolina.
Intrade: Obama 303 EV.
++Latino Decisions final poll has Obama winning72.9% of the vote and Romney at 27.1%.
++Final ABC/Washington Post poll: Obama 50 to Romney 47.
++Rand Tracking: Obama 50 to Romney 45.5.
++YouGov. National: Obama 49 to Romney 47.
++Final DailyKos/SEIU poll: Obama 50 to Romney 48.
++Final Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48 to Romney 46.
++Gallup: Romney 49 to Obama 48.
++PPP: Obama 50 to Romney 48.
++Onsight Public Affairs: Obama 50 to Romney 46.
++Last Gallup approval rating before election day: 52%.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Souls to the Polls
++From his bunker in Princeton, Sam Wang says it is Obama 305 and 233 Romney. Meta-margin is +2.20. Probabilities--Fading--91%, Predictive at 98%. Obama's electoral vote range is 287 to 327.
++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.
++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.
++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.
++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.
++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.
++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39.
++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.
++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.
++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.
++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.
++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.
++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.
++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.
++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.
++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.
++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson.
++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.
++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.
++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.
++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.
++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.
++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.
++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.
++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.
++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.
++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39.
++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.
++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.
++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.
++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.
++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.
++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.
++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.
++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.
++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.
++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson.
++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.
++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.
++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.
++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Good Vibrations
++I'm hanging on to Allan Lichtman's prediction about President Obama's re-election. I haven't seen any more keys drop so we venture into the last days before the election waiting on another Jobs Report,some disaster abroad and the barrage of dog whistles on race and the avalanche of attack ads.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Romney Bounce Recedes
++The polling data coming off the debate bounce is confusing. The Martinez report, for instance, which reads the fine print of polls, suggests that Romney gained 1.18 its nationwide leaving Obama with a 4.34pt lead. Gallup's 47-47 tie, which was based on a three day poll,gave way to a return today of an Obama 50 to Romney 45 lead and a resurgence of a Obama's approval rating to 51%. Rasmussen's tracking poll has returned to a 48-48 tie. The Rand tracking poll is at 48 Obama to 45 for Romney.
++Latino Decisions didn't find any Romney bounce. President Obama is at 72% and Romney at 20%.
++Western New England College finds that President Obama leads in Massachusetts 63 to 33 over Romney.
++PPP finds Obama ahead in Virginia 50-47.
++WRAL in North Carolina finds President Obama ahead by 49 to 47.
++Rasmussen's Swing State polls are funky. He finds Obama got a bounce to a 49-47 lead in Iowa and Colorado 49 to 48.
++Meanwhile in the Senate,Intratrade predicts Democrats will win 52, with 2 independents, and Republicans with 48. Currently there are 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents) and 47 Republicans. So Intratrade thinks Democrats lose 1 seat but retain control of the Senate.
++Rasmussen has Obama ahead by a point in Ohio but the Senate race of Brown versus Mandel tied. All other polls I have seen on the Senate race show Brown crushing Mandel even though the Superpacs are pouring millions into Mandel's campaign.
++Latino Decisions didn't find any Romney bounce. President Obama is at 72% and Romney at 20%.
++Western New England College finds that President Obama leads in Massachusetts 63 to 33 over Romney.
++PPP finds Obama ahead in Virginia 50-47.
++WRAL in North Carolina finds President Obama ahead by 49 to 47.
++Rasmussen's Swing State polls are funky. He finds Obama got a bounce to a 49-47 lead in Iowa and Colorado 49 to 48.
++Meanwhile in the Senate,Intratrade predicts Democrats will win 52, with 2 independents, and Republicans with 48. Currently there are 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents) and 47 Republicans. So Intratrade thinks Democrats lose 1 seat but retain control of the Senate.
++Rasmussen has Obama ahead by a point in Ohio but the Senate race of Brown versus Mandel tied. All other polls I have seen on the Senate race show Brown crushing Mandel even though the Superpacs are pouring millions into Mandel's campaign.
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