The Counter Narrative on the Elections

The media narrative is that Republicans now have such an overwhelming financial advantage and can carpet- bomb the terrain with their aerial ad campaign that it is a cinch that Republicans are going to blow back into power. The Associated Press writes today that pieces of the Obama coalition who wanted change now are switching to the Republicans. Remember the political editor of AP applied to be McCain's press person during the 2008 campaign. Sarah Palin says that people will be dancing in the streets. Sonny Liston will beat Muhammad Ali.

I have a problem with this. The narrative of a party who is likely to be defeated falls on deaf ears two weeks before the election. This doesn't appear to be the case with the Democrats messaging. In fact, the Republican message machine and maybe their momentum stalled in June. I've been reviewing the polls the last two days and it is simply chaos. Often three polls for one race will provide radically different results in different directions. One reason is that polling in general has reached a crisis point and will have to be re-evaluated after this election; the second reason is that the electoral environment isn't stable and is still in flux.

Just an example, Rasmussen released two polls on October 14 showing that Obama has one approval rating at 50% and the other poll showed him at 42%. This from the same firm.

Howard Dean, who was right when other people said healthcare was dead, says he is one of the dwindling number of people in Washington D.C., who still believe the Democrats are going to retain both the Senate and the House. He first said this about one month ago and reiterated this yesterday. The main reason he says is that Obama has turned the elections into a choice and not a referendum on the sitting party. He believes that forcing that choice favors the Democrats, since the Republicans clearly have no new ideas or proposals. Also that two years ago is not the distant past.

Robert Gibbs this morning actually said the Democrats would hold both the Senate and the House, but he has to.

Clearly, Obama on the campaign trail has lost his luster. People don't go to his rallies anymore because they are too crowded. In fact, the last few, including his appearance in Boston, drew more than the 2008 campaign. While he may be speaking to the choir, the choir is still there.

Yesterday, the light bulb went off in the heads of the wealthy Democrats, who are now opening their wallets to form a firewall for the House Democrats.

Organizing for America made over 1 million phone calls yesterday and are present in all 50 states for the election. The DNC sent out a long memo to concerned Democrats about their own efforts. They claim they exceed the efforts of 2006. Their purpose is to mobilize the base, the sporadic voter and the first time voter from 2008. Expect to see a large GOTV effort.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is no enthusiasm gap at local Democratic headquarters around the country. Even in states where Republicans are expected to seize some House seats, those beleaguered campaigns seem to have high morale and are not meeting the juggernaut on the ground. Also, while Obama Republicans and Independents are frustrated, the tea party people scared them more than Democrats. The large advantage among Independents for the Republicans has shrunk considerably over the last two weeks. Remember people also vote for real people and many of the Republican candidates creep people out.

Forget the lack of enthusiasm of the African-American voter. the Joint Center for Policy Studies polled the African-American community and found that they had a higher intent to vote than Democrats in general and Republicans also. In early voting states, African-American voters have camped out to be the first in line--which is astonishing for a mid-term. Throughout the African-American community, there are posters, "Obama, we have your back." It's estimated that the African-American vote will swing 20 different congressional races.

Hispanics may not be thrilled either with the Democrats, but the anti-immigration rhetoric from the Republicans this year have widened the party affiliation gap, even exceeding the 2008 level. Aware of the increased clout of the Hispanic voter, Sharron Angle yesterday tried to explain away her Willy Horton dark-skinned Mexican ads by saying she was really concerned about our Canadian border. Hispanics will make the difference in Nevada, Colorado,and California.

Barack Obama is spending an enormous amount of energy campaigning on college campuses and you wonder what data he is receiving. While young people were part of his base, they have not showed up on the polls. Recent national polls show them at 7% of the mix. While Democrats appear on MTV during election season, this emphasis on the college vote seems unusual, unless the Administration actually knows they will be more involved than in other mid-terms.

Conservatives are not taking this lying down. A group, not affiliated with the official republican Party called the National Republican Lawyers group is planning to flood districts with minority voters with so-called poll-watchers with an attempt to suppress the minority vote. In Wisconsin and Michigan, they are aiming to block students from voting. This happened here in Virginia during the 2008 presidential elections. But it's clear this group's emergence in the last week means Republicans are concerned that this part of the Democratic base may vote.

In showcase races where you have a better idea of the dynamics of the electorate, the momentum seems to be all Democrat. Whether they catch up is a different question. One telling moment came at Russ Feingold's fund-raiser where the Senator had admitted he had been behind in the race (most polls had him 10 points down and dead) but he said that he had polled ahead according to his internal polls, which had previously had him behind. True? But this story seems to be playing out around the country.

There has been reaction by local Chambers of Commerce to the American Chamber's blitzkreig tactics. In many congressional districts, they are distancing themselves from the ads and raising their own questions about foreign funding.

One delicious irony appeared yesterday in Forbes magazine. Karl Rove has told the anonymous donors to his Crossroads America/GPS that their contributions were not tax-deductible. That is true. But apparently, Rove's group were not aware that the contributors may be subject to a 35% gift tax, according to the law. This was raised not by foe but a friend of the group. I would love it. Also, C.R.E.W is going after the Chamber for its use of funds from the Starr Foundation, which was created by Hank Greenberg of AIG for non-political programs. The Starr Foundations itself claims that there may be upwards of $16 million of their funds spent.

In various state races--in New Hampshire, the Republicans were supposed to pick up three House seats but this appears more difficult as the GOP candidates seem to have a whole bunch of legal problems. Local papers are already reporting that if these three are elected, they would have to be immediately reported to the ethics committee.

Democratic Senatorial candidate Jack Conway has sharpened his attack on Rand Paul. One internet ad attacks Rand Paul for lying about the existence of a non-profit he was said to run. Apparently it went out of business. He has a hard hitting ad using the Chilean miners and linking them to Kentucky miners, who risk their lives everyday, but Rand Paul wants to do away with mine safety regulations. And the real humdinger is that Jack Conway goes after Rand Paul's religious beliefs saying he belonged to a secret society at Baylor that believed the Bible was a hoax.

The counter ads are prolific but try to link Jack Conway to anything having to do with Barack Obama. There is little content having to do with Kentucky. This seems to be the strength of recent ads by Democrats, bringing state issues home, while the Republicans air these cookie-cutter , generic ads. From a media point of view, the local ads are sharper and more effective.

In my favorite Alaskan race, teabagger Joe Miller is now embroiled in another controversy. How did he and his children get on Medicare and why is he opposed to it? This comes only two days after his former employer explained his ethics problem with the town's computers.

It looks like David Plouffe was right when about a month ago he said this election will come down to races won by a handful of votes and by slight differences. Barack Obama said he was relying on the commonsense of the American people. I guess hope springs eternal but at least organize for it. And that the Democrats appear to be doing rather successfully.