Polls, more Polls and Hocus Pocus

Nate Silver today has increased the odds of the Republicans taking the House, saying the Democratic comeback is only slight and that the local environment in House races still favor Republicans. He also said that Republicans have increased their odds but only to 25% of taking the Senate.

And now the whining begins about polls but there are some interesting complaints that should be taken seriously. Gallup last likely voter screen was amazingly lopsided for conservatives --54%--and for Republicans, raising serious questions about its validity. The CNN poll which shows Sharron Angle leading by two points over Harry Reid, neglected to poll anyone under the age of 35. Rasmussen polls and the Fox polls in Nevada also showed heavy samplings of men and Republicans. At this rate I am totally confused and so are all the pollsters.

There are some anecdotal stories that cast the situation in a slightly different situation. John Ralston, the veteran political reporter for the Las Vegas Sun, wrote a piece yesterday that expressed amazement of the last few polls that showed Angle leading Harry Reid. He wrote that he has been travelling around the state and he can not think of anyone more marginalized than Angle. He writes that there does exist an extensive anybody but Harry sentiment but that has not translated into support for Angle. He said he asks every gathering to show hands about who's going to vote for Harry . The early meeting started with about 50% raising their hands and now it's about two-thirds. The other point he makes is that no one is polling for all candidates including the Tea Party candidate and in Nevada you have "none of the above" as a choice.

While pollster now show Republicans are 50 seats in the Senate, this means they have to win Illinois, Nevada, West Virginia,Colorado and Washington, where Dino Rossi is now challenging Patty Murray. The Dailykos pollster has the Senate now at 51 but a close analysis actually shows 6 races where Democrats are within 7 or less.

More anecedotal hearsay, I spoke with a lifelong Republican, who works in the House. This person reported that the Democratic staff believes they will lose the House but this person believes that the Republicans have recruited such strange candidates that they will come short. This person alaso said that the new crop of Democrats, even though they represent traditionally Republican districts are nicer and more hard-working than their older Democratic counterparts and actually are good representatives. This may be one of the reasons that polls for people running in Joe Sestak old seat or Tom Pierrello here in Virginia are much more competitive than previously thought.

My naivete still amazes me. In this conversation with the Republican, the person complained about the quality of the Republican recruits by saying surely the GOP could have done better because "they are paying these people to run." I had never heard that about candidates. "But it makes alot of sense with the Teabaggers and other fruitloops in the races. So the cynicism here is great. You campaign on any crazy idea you have so has to get the base enthused--we cover you overhead with the Chamber of Commerce ads--you win and then all you obey the instructions from the corporate lobbyists, but still maintain the facade of the great patriot. So this year we really do have hundreds of Manchurian candidates--little robots that will not represent your district but some multinational.

Now the Chamber of Commerce's chief lobbyist was dispatched yesterday to explain to the Washington Post and New York Times editorial boards that there was nothing to worry about on the charges that the Chamber is using foreign funds for attack ads. But Think Progress pressed further and found that the Chamber and Karl Rove's outfit are coordinated by a former Chamber legal counsel and both are using the same ad agency for their attack ads. Think Progress reproduced the ad schedules in certain Senate races showing how they are piggybacking on each other. Remarkably the Republican Senatorial Committee isn't spending a dime on the Missouri race, it's all the Chamber, Rove and faceless conservative groups.

But the foreign element hasn't been as camouflaged as much as the Chamber likes. Pat Toomey in his race with Joe Sestak gave a full-throated defense of corporations shipping jobs to Chinese and the Chinese economic policy in general. This in steel mill Pennsylvania. Nancy Pelosi in her rebuttal to John Boehner's final call speech blasted the House Republicans for repeatedly voting against closing the tax loopholes against corporations that ship jobs overseas and against real small businesses.

The Chamber tried to defend themselves by saying labor does the same thing. An important distinction, the American Labor movement openly discloses to whom it's contributing funds. You can see the records at the Department of Labor. Second point, the American labor movement are real flesh and blood Americans. The UAW and the Steelworkers have Canadians members also. But they do not have Bahrain state owned banks as members.

While President Obama and the Democrats are trying to seize this issue. As several reporters have pointed out, this is not resonating because people think all politicians use this money. The Chamber's behavior this cycle will be a major issue in 2012 because you will see the dramatic results in Republican behavior if they take back the House.

Even so, I would urge C.R.E.W. and other watchdog groups to insist that the Chamber register as foreign agents for any lobbying they do in the future. As I said yesterday, the prohibition on foreign money in our elections recalls the Cold War. Contrary to Justice Roberts thinking he was repealing century old prohibitions against foreign funds, the teeth to these laws came during the Cold War for the simple reason American officials were concerned for Soviet attempts to manipulate our political system.

Now with the declaration of war by fundamentalist Christians and American corporations against the United States, who better to manipulate the situation than the world's most political powerful Pentecoastal Christian, former KGB head Vladimir Putin? Think about it.
The last President said he could trust him by looking into his heart.

Could we give it up for America's great Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont? Yesterday, America's greatest "pork barrel" scheme went into effect. Sanders attached the amendment to the Healthcare Reform bill of funding a nationwide network of Free Clinics for people who can not afford medical treatment. Blasted by Fox News and the Republicans as a massive payoff to Vermont, it actually benefited the whole nation. Heath and Human Services made their first payment yesterday of over $770 million for the free clinics. Bravo.

Meanwhile in Northern Exposure, the teabagger candidate and Todd Palin's friend, Joe Miller continues to astound me. Joe Miller finally had to file his personal income forms with the FEC or face $50,000 fines. Joe has more credit card debt than myself--an astonishing $65,000, $15-30,000 in college student debt, $55,000 in Law School debt, and claims he loaned his campiagn between $120-200,000. He also owes back real estate taxes and has a small "agricultural" land holding for which he receives government subsidies. So, he's immensely leveraged. Remember he has been earning $70,000 a year and his wife is on unemployment. I would like to see the paperwork on the alleged "loan" to the campaign. That will be his payment for running and be used to pay off his debt. The Alaska Grifters Society is fantastic on gaming the political system.

Joe Miller already has promised to shut down the Federal Government and claims he has Mitch McConnell's blessings (since denied) to do so when he wins. Back here in Virginia, the teaparty held a convention because they are concerned that the Republicans will betray them and not shut down the Government. Also they are demanding that the first piece of business is for the House Republicans to vote to repeal the Healthcare bill. Then they can shut down the Government. Of course, in the real world, we are teetering on a Depression, fighting two wars and millions upon millions are dependent on the federal government for small things like Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Benefits and Income Tax Refunds. Even Joe Miller's father receives Social Security. He must hate him alot. Eric Cantor has shied away from this,"We'll look like Yahoos."

Progressives tend to think that this is all choreographed but the Republican startegy for the past 20 months has been a work in progress. Once the Tea Baggers toppled establishment types, the financial kingpins have moved in to use the Christine O' Donnell's and other exotic creatures as the shiny metal object for the media and others to observe, while they work covertly behind the House Represenatives and other Senatorial candidates they need to win. It looks clever and cynical, but it's all made-up. That's why if the Republicans take the House, it's going to be a free-for-all. None of the new Republicans will have even read the Pledge and they have no loyalty to Bohner, Cantor or the Young Guns. Over on the Senate side, Jim DeMint will be their leader, not Mitch McConnell so all hell will break loose. Joe Miller will be demanding that any bill will have to be evaluated whether it is constitutional. Goodby, CIA. Goodby, standing military. That would be sort of fun.

That's why I want the implosion to be Republican-specific. Even with slight majorities in both chambers, the Democrats can at least minimize the total damage to our political system. President Obama is already studying what policies he can implement by executive order so as to short-circuit the mayhem these people will create.

If the Republicans take back the House, Galileo will be tried again. Rep. Sesenbrenner wants to hold hearings on the "Climate Change Hoax" and wants to investigate all the leading scientists who have studied the subject. Maybe we can have Michelle Bachmann investigate evolution. Rep. Issa might be hampered with his ACORN investigation because the GOP is now hiring these people for their Get Out the Vote effort. But he will surely focus on the New Black Panther Party.

Think about this sad fact, the only moderate Republicans left in Congress will be Senator Lugar, Senators Snowe and Collins, the last I'm not so sure about. The ACU rating on the House side will rise above the 95% rating now. It's one thing for a major political party to blow its brains out but to afflict the whole country is criminal.