The Smog of War

So the new media narrative is that it's a horserace across the board and races are tightening. Everyone that voted for Obama have all defected to the teabaggers and they are supporting the 20 states who are challenging the 14th Amendment. The last factoid is actually true. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama continues his "Lonely Man" tour, speaking in Oregon and Washington state and next in California. His audiences are dwindling because everyone is already there. He didn't draw the 250,000 that he did Portland during 2008. He's only speaking before audiences of 18-20,000 dispirited voters. This compares unfavorably to Sarah Palin's California rally of 2,000 because it's always best to only speak to the truly committed "real Americans".

The local media have portrayed these visits in a positive light and have expressed shock that the backyard meetings are not pre-screened. The host is asked to invite his or her friends, no matter the party and the questions are not pre-screened. The local press are astonished by this and have the hosts for these meetings on after Air Force One departs. Frankly, I have been skeptical about the effectiveness of these gatherings and still remain to be persuaded.

I'll be fascinated to learn what the final turnout this year. You are lucky to have 30-35% for a mid-term election and that's why Republicans love them so. But the anecdotal evidence suggests this time may be higher. Voters are using early voting at the rate of 2008. Democrats lead in early voting in the Midwest, and Nevada but not in Louisiana , North Carolina or Florida. If Democrats keep this pace, they may have a better election night.

One of the interesting things about early voting is how the African-Americans use it. While the teabaggers are making a concerted effort to suppress the African-American vote, I've noticed that the African-American is turning out at higher rates than in 2006, which marked a surge in African-American voters. In Georgia, for instance, African-American early voting is surpassing their 2008 turnout. Whether this will translate into anything remains to be scene. The only visible race there is for Governor between Republican Deal and Democrat Barnes. Whether suppression efforts in Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin succeed is anyone's guess. But I think the African-American community is using early voting to neutralize these efforts that succeeded in the past.

Today, Electoral-Politics. com have the Republicans leading the House with 207 to the Democrats 205 with 23 ties. The DailyKos pollster now has the Senate at 52, but indicates that more races are opening up so that Democrats run the possibilty of 49 to 56 seats. At the high end,it just means Democrats would lose Arkansas, North Dakota and Indiana.

A late night election will be Pennsylvania's Senate race. It is a virtual tie right now because the Democrats running ads on the anonymous corporate donors is hitting home with this working class state. The AFL-CIO's efforts have mobilized union members who were going to sit this one out. You will know the result if Sestak leaves Philadelphia with a 400,000 vote lead. That's the number for his victory.

Another sleeper is Diaper Dave Vitter's race against Charlie Melancon in Louisiana. Vitter had an enormous financial advantage and dominated the airwaves but it seems Melancon's message is beginning to hit home, especially among independent voters. Right now Vitter has a 3 pt. edge, when he was blowing away Melancon only two weeks ago.

John Ralston is still reporting that there is no discernible GOP surge in Nevada. You have to ask about the effect Frank Fahrenkopf, Reagan's RNC chairman's endorsement of Harry Reid, and other prominent Nevada Republicans will have on the race.

The Alaska Senate race is getting down and dirty. Joe Miller now is suing the state of Alaska so as to conceal his employment records. 50 Alaskan Republicans have signed a petition aimed at Miller, saying that any candidate who refuses to talks about his past professional life, is not worthy of public office.The Democrats are threatening to sue the state of Alaska for circulating slips with the names of right-in candidates in the voting booth. Joe Miller is suing the Native Alaskan Authorities, the largest group supporting Murkowski, over their campaign contributions. The Native Alaskan Authorities cancelled the candidates' forum because they did not want Scott McAdams speaking about his close relationship to the native Americans, his support of their language and his honorary membership in the local tribes. More Alaskans are learning that Joe Miller storm troopers are linked to extreme militia groups. Jim DeMint is bringing to the state ads showing Joe Miller as the only true pro-life candidate. This is the Hail Mary pass. Right now, it's a three-way tie and anyone can win.

Early voting in Florida is favoring the Republicans. Marco Rubio has a comfortable lead over Charlie Crist. Charlie Crist is running on fumes. He's rumored to be out of money. But the real danger here is Rick Scott, the Republican candidate for governor. He is now tied and in some polls leading Alex Sink. Electing Scott is like electing Bernie Madoff the governor of New York. His grand jury testimony has been playing on YouTube. Check it out. This guy is squirrelly.

Russ Finegold is not out yet. His opponent Art Johnson has been stunning in his press interviews. Johnson has advocated drilling in the Great Lakes, is speechless about what programs he wants to cut, and asked about what he would do for the Middle Class came up with zilch. I still say Feingold's in trouble.

The election is beginning to be a blur to me. Maybe that's the genius media strategy of Karl Rove and corporate America. I think voters are being conditioned to just factor the insanity out because it's repeated so much. And the nutjob candidates are just the shiny objects to keep our attention, while those who do win will pick what remains in our pockets.

A conservative Republican said to me that it would be a shame if the fiscal conservatism of the teabaggers got mixed up with social conservatism because that would start a factional fight. I hated to tell that guy the religious Right and the corporations have joint ownership of the Tea Party. Given the eventual political reality in Congress, it's very probable that the nuts will be indulged and they can introduce a Bill Outlawing Birth Control and another one Declaring America A Christian Nation, but the K Street lobbyists will be working in a stealth-like manner to gut Wall Street Reform of key provisions and defund portions of the Health Reform Bill. Basically, given past pattern of Republican behavior, there will be little overt attention to their real actions.

What was supposed to be Obama's ace in the hole--the Catfood Commission--may not be the instrument he thought he needed to put Republicans on the spot. President Obama knows, I know and everyone else knows that Republicans are not serious about the national debt. They can't name a single program they would cut--except waste and fraud. President Obama hoped to use the Catfood Commission as pressure but it seems this commission can seem to reach an agreement on their recommendations, which are due in December.

Alfred E. Newman emerged again from hiding to say his biggest failure when he was President was "not to privatize Social Security." Think about that. So Republicans this year are running on continuing W's financial policies and sealing the deal with privatizing Social Security.