Romney's 2012 Problem

By conventional Republican wisdom, Mitt Romney is the next GOP presidential candidate in 2012. Republicans almost always pick who went around last time and came in second. 2008 was a rare election with two Senators running against it other. The last time a Senator won the presidency before Barack Obama was JFK. That's how rare Senators are as Presidential material. So reason would have a former Governor and a previous candidate in the primaries as a lock.

But there are roadblocks in the way for Mitten. Mitt Romney has worse approval/disapproval ratings than Bob Dole when he ran in 1996 and John McCain in 2008. Of course, not many Republicans have better ratings. And few have access to bottomless wealth, especially in this day of Citizens United.

A Gallup poll this week showed that Mitten was the first choice of Republicans with 19% and Sarah Palin second with 16. Mike Huckabee came in 3rd with double digits. Everyone else lagged far behind. The Gallup poll found that Republicans with postgraduate degrees favored Mitt by a 3 t0 1 margin, those with bachelors' degree 2 to 1. But with those lacking a college degree, Sarah Palin was even with Mitt.

In the old GOP--eight years ago!, the Republican Party's basic electoral strength was in the suburbs, precisely those people who would vote with Romney. As we have seen in the mayhem of the last 20 months, it has shifted to rural areas and solidified in the South. Romney desparately needs a string of GOP wins in the governors' mansions in the Midwest to build a beachhead for the primaries in 2012. Or else he will be upended by partial Alaskan governor Sarah Palin and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is handicapped because people like the Club of Greed consider him too populist in economic policies.

If we consider the Tea Party movement as the Republican base, which I do, then we are dealing with a much poorly educated voter than before. Electoral politics.com believes the Republican primaries will be open class warfare between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Palin would be the female equivalent of George Wallace--the final triumph of the true implications of the Southern Strategy. We would have the adoption by the Republicans of the culture of White Trash.

While Romney has jettisoned his 14-15 houses and settled in just a couple, he still labors under the burden of introducing a state-wide health care system in Massachusetts, changing his position on abortion (to anti-choice), and is vague of whether he's a creationist. No one believes me when I say that the next Republican nominee must be a creationist and against evolution. Even John McCain had to cave and support the teaching of intelligence design in school. Romney has placed high in the various polls at conservative fora simply because he pays for these votes. They are not a true indicator of popularity. With the new change in the primary rules, his road to victory may be in a smoke-filled room once the process gets deadlocked.