Who's Going to Ride the Short Bus?

Don't wait up election night for Nevada, Colorado and Alaska. It's too close to call.

The best news is that Joe Miller seems to have collapsed as he has paid the toll for a week of revelations about his ethical problems. His unfavorable now is 68%. The race has come down to Lisa Murkowski and Scott McAdams. The Supreme Court of Alaska overturned the court decision barring the names of write-in candidates at the polling places. This favors Murkowski, who now leads the polls. But 25% of her support is coming from Democrats who want to prevent a Miller win. If they come home to Scott McAdams he wins in what would be the biggest upset of the election cycle. Also, there is an unprecedented number of undecideds in this race.

Earlier today, the DNC released a matter-of-fact memo that said that the Republican wave was not coming as evidenced by their analysis of early voting. Maybe they are whistling past the graveyard but there have been odd items emerging in the last few days that suggest that the voting has not been settled. McClatchy/ Marist had a poll today that showed that the generic poll of registered voters showed a 47-41 advantage to the Democrats, a tie of 46-46 of likely voters and a 49-43 advantage to Republicans in "most likely" to vote. It mirrored the previous Newsweek poll in its canvassing cell-phone users, who tended to be Democrats.

While Nate the Great Silver has the Republicans taking the House with 52 seats, he has an out in his analysis. He says Republicans are set to win 6 seats with less than 1 percent and 8 seats with between 1-2% of the vote. If his model is underestimates Democrats by 2 %, and those seats remain Democrat than they retain the House 218-217. The biggest losers would be Blue Dog Democrats.

Larry Sabato made his final picks today. The Republicans pick up 55 House seats and 8 Senate seats. Democrats keep the Senate but lose the House. One picky item is that Sabato pushes all the tied Senate seats to the Republicans. Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Washington. Of course, he has missed the developments in Alaska. First of all, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Patty Murray was going to lose to Rossi. Then I do not know why in all tied seats one automatically assumes Republicans will win.

Does the GOTV effort by the Democrats not matter? True, it's not 2008 but the word from Organizing for America is that they have been chugging away surpassing 8 million calls en route to a record 10,000 calls. Howard Dean's organization also touts large phonebanks. And Labor clearly is doing its part because Breibart has a new doctored video showing "union vote fraud." I wish conservatives learned what vote fraud is.

The Hill has also weighed in with their predictions based on Schoen polls of the pivotal races. They also predict the Republicans will pick up over 50 seats.

Electoral Politics.com has the House at 213 GOP and 203 Democrats with 19tied. I have been waiting for the last two days to see the final numbers kick in but they only seem to change 1 or 2 a day.

In Rhode Island, put a fork in Democrat Caprio, who looked like he was heading to an automatic victory. In a state where Obama has an overwhelming approval rating, it's not wise to disrespect the President and say he didn't want his endorsement. Caprio's numbers disappeared and Lincoln Chaffee looked like the next governor.

CNN's David Gergen criticized President Obama for appearing on the John Stewart Show last night, saying it was undignified and non-presidential. It seems the show drew 2.8 million viewers--maybe that's what Obama had in mind. Do we have to live two more years of this type of sniping at Obama. He's just not white and old.

Charles Cook had a warning. He said that 2006 was a wave election, 2008 was another wave election, and this year will be a wave election and also 2012 will also be a wave election. So the victors this year must not over-interpret the reason for their win. But we know they will.

I've missed Karl Rove talking about the Senate races. After all Crossroads America was created with the expressed purpose of taking over the Senate. He now only talks about the House. Interesting.

If Republicans lose in Nevada, Colorado, Alaska and/or Kentucky, what do you think Mitch McConnell is going to do to Jim DeMint, Mr. Teabagger? With Christine O'Donnell, the Republicans lost all chance of taking over the Senate and now they could actually lose a few seats because of the teabaggers.