Whither Bibi?

++In my world Israel's politics was defined by the Labor Party and Likud. Those days are long gone as Israel's body politic has moved increasingly rightwing so that Bibi Netanyahu looks like a centrist.  I normally try to follow Americans writers who seem to know what they are writing about. The recent proliferation of new parties just confuses me.

++Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has a piece about whether Bibi is going to fail in the March elections. No one is really believing this since he is clever,resourceful and Machiavellian enough to survive.

++But the noises coming from Israel indicate the situation has become increasingly unstable. For instance, Michael Orens, the former ambassador to the United States and the protege of Frank Luntz,the GOP pollster, has abandoned Bibi and joined the new party. Orens , you will recall, was the liaison with the Romney campaign and has been totally identified with Bibi.

++Then Avbrigor Lieberman ,the former Foreign Minister who is notoriously nationalistic,openly criticized the Prime Minister's foreign policy as a non-starter.Then the comptroller of Likud ruled that Bibi can't run for the nomination of his party because he misused party funds for personal purposes. Almost everyone laughs this one off as certain to be reversed.

++All of this indicates Bibi has lost his internal clout so that political figures feel free to challenge him, although criticism is part and parcel of Israeli politics but this feels different.

++The moment of Israel's success in Gaza has vanished with the unease among Israelis that nothing has been solved. The question about how long can Israel hold 5 million Palestinians under occupation has surfaced again. And with that the fundamental issue of whether Israel can remain democratic and Jewish, which has been their hallmark and won them support in the most difficult days.

++Lieberman, no great friend of democracy or Arab Israelis for that matter, gave a very revealing speech about the challenges that lie ahead. He reminded his Israeli audience that it depends on the EU for its economy and that the EU is turning against it. (In part, this is because the EU is seriously considering the recognition of Palestine and also, let's be frank, anti-semiticism has re-emerged in Western Europe as a pernicious force.)  Lieberman said that the opening to China hasn't panned out yet and Bibi's trip to Russia hasn't yielded anything with the crisis there. Curiously, he then advocated a two-state solution again and Israel being sensitive to foreign concerns on this matter. 

++I have heard someone like Elliot Abrams argue that Israel could go it alone and their economy would not hurt. From listening to Lieberman's analysis, I don't believe this and think it is sheer bravado.

++The divestment movement in America and Europe has been symbolic so far but it has concerned both Israelis and the American-Jewish community because there are more than tinges of anti-semiticism, which should worry anyone.

++When Bibi was here in the fall, he touted how Israel and the "moderate" Arab states were helping in the fight against ISIS and he reiterated his support of a two state solution--even though his active sabotage of John Kerry's efforts belie this notion. It was about this time he acquiesced to the Jewish Home Party's demand for the expansion of settlements. How much of this is playing politics for the upcoming elections is anyone's guess.

++Outside observers feel dissolving the Unity Government and calling early elections was a mistake, a mistake that seriously weakens Bibi Netanyahu and his chances of cobbling together both a ruling coalition and one which will have tacit acceptance from the international community.

++No one seriously is questioning Bibi's ability to pull this off since he has dominated Israeli politics for some time. But recent events have increased the anxiety about Israel's direction.

++Watch this space because I think the Israeli elections are going to be  major event in 2015.