Why Hillary Clinton Probably Will Win

++ (Big caveats: The GOP control most of the state houses so we can expect massive voter suppression. Dark Money will play an enormous role in the 2016 campaign, more so than in the past. The Media will spend a year and a half attacking Hillary as the presumptive frontrunner. And misogyny, you ain't see nothing. And,even Chait admits,the economic could fall into a recession--this is what I see with the GOP budgets)

++Jonathan Chait writes an article in New York explaining why Hillary will win. Doug Brooks and John Judis claim the race starts off even. Charlie Cook says the Democrats have a 191-168 electorate lead.

++Chait says that Judis claims that the 2014 elections showed a resurgence of the Republican majority. But Pew shows 48% Are Democrats or are leaning Democrat/39% are Republicans or are leaning Republicans.

++No, the Democrats are not losing the younger vote The only demographic that leans Republican right now are the silent generation (69-78) and that's by 4%.

++No, Hillary is not unpopular. Her approval rating took a slight ding over the past few months but she has better approval ratings than any GOP candidate. 

++Usually, if the president's approval is fading, the white house party would be in trouble. But President Obama's has rebounded.

++Is it Time for a Change? Only once with George H.W. Bush did a party in the post-WWII period have three terms in a row. But there are not enough examples to make this a historical certainty. 

++Chait's biggest point he saves for last. Hillary Clinton will be the only candidate of a major American political party not run by lunatics. 

++Jeb Bush could move to the center but his party are climate change deniers,homophobic,against healthcare,and for voodoo economics. 

++Hillary will model her campaign on George H.W. Bush, which totally embraced Ronald Reagan as opposed to Gore's, which distanced himself from Clinton. Hillary has already debated this among advisers and will embrace President Obama while only selectively distancing herself. She wants him to raise funds and campaign among African-Americans because she fears a drop-off of their vote, even though they will return the same percentage support for Democrats.