Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Michael Tomasky in the Daily Beast

++"Hillary Is About To Clean Donald Trump's Clock."

++Tomasky gives predictions caveats but says this election really could be a blowout. He says frontloadingHQ.com did their first analysis of the general election comparing all state polls ,past elections and the electoral vote over the years compared to changing demographics. 

++Tomasky reports it is 358 to 180. and they might be underestimating Hillary's win. She is projected to win nearly every large state. Women are 54% of the electorate this time and 63% of them refuse to vote for Trump.  It's basically Obama 2012 with North Carolina  but even may be better.

++All of us have been eyeing Georgia. I felt Obama played it too cautiously with his 270 campaign an neglected a real chance at Georgia. Tomasky talked to the Georgia head of the Democratic Party and she said 40% of the electorate is non-white and Hillary would win about 90% of them and Hillary would just need 30% of the white vote to win.

++Tomasky points to both the recent Kansas poll where Hillary is on a 7 pt lead and Utah where she's very competitive. He doesn't believe she will win either but they are indicators of what may be coming.

++Nate Silver had a roundtable on which states to watch. His panel basically was divided about Ohio or Pennsylvania. They opted for Pennsylvania as a contested state . But all agreed Trump would not win Utah. Johnson might win as a protest vote ,the first state won by an independent since 1968. 

++Of course they projected this with warnings about a terrorist attack or FBI indictment. We had the terrorist attack and we got to see how TRUMP would react to a 3am phone call.

No comments:

Post a Comment