Monday, October 31, 2016

ALASKA: CRACIUN

Clinton 36%
Trump 33%
Johnson 6%
Stein     3%
Unsure 23%

DAVID AXELROD SAYS HISPANICS ARE VOTING IN DROVES

++Axelrod made his comments about the early voting in Florida. 22% are those who didn't vote in 2012 but aren't identified as Democrats or even Republicans. As Axelrod said, they certainly aren't voting for Trump. I heard this anecdotally about Texas today, tremendous Hispanic turnout but not identified as party. Just an enormous reactions to Trump.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL DEMANDS COMEY RESIGN BECAUSE HE HAS LOST THE TRUST OF THE NATION.

NATE SILVER SAID TODAY HE WAS WAITING FOR THIS POLL

He said he was waiting for Pennsylvania and Michigan to see whether Hillary's firewall was holding. We saw Michigan was. Now here's Pennsylvania.

Franklin and Marshall--the primo PA poll.

Clinton 49%
Trump  38%
Johnson 4%
Stein     2%

Senate: McGinty 47% to Toomey 35%

Hillary has a 30+ lead in Philly and the suburbs. Just as Pflouffe has said two weeks ago.


FBI SAYS INVESTIGATING PAUL MANAFORT'S TIES TO RUSSIA.

HUFFPOST ELECTION FORECAST: CLINTON 98.2%, TRUMP 1.6%

JOHN KASICH VOTES FOR JOHN MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT.

COLORADO/SM

Clinton 44%
Trump  39%
Johnson 11%
Stein       4%
No Answer 2%

GEORGIA:SM

Trump 46%
Clinton44%
Johnson 7%
NoAnswer 3%

ARIZONA:SM

Clinton 43%
Trump 43%
Johnson 8%
Stein     3%
No Answer 3%

New Hampshire: Survey Monkey

Clinton 46%
Trump  36%
Johnson 13%
Stein      3%
Someone else 3%

SOUTH CAROLINA: SURVEY MONKEY

Trump 46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein     3%

SURVEY MONKEY: PENNSYLVANIA

Clinton 49%
Trump  41%
Johnson 6%
Stein     2%
Someone else 3%

TRUMP'S RUSSIAN TIES DEEPEN

++Dave Corn has revealed that a veteran spy informed the FBI of an operation Russia has to cultivate Donald Trump in this election.

++The Clinton campaign has spread it out that Trump Organization has an email server directly to the Putin-connected bank Alfa Bank.

MICHIGAN FOX

Clinton 47%
Trump  41%
Johnson  6%
Stein      2%

Clinton 50.5%
Trump 42 %
Undecided 6%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Clinton 46%
Trump  39%
Johnson  6%
Stein      1%
Someone else 3%

REUTERS

Clinton 43%
Trump  37%
Johnson 6%
Stein     1%

NBC/SURVEY MONKEY

Clinton 51%
Trump  44%

Clinton 47%
Trump  41%
Johnson  6%
Stein      3%

INCREDIBLE:FBI ADMITS TO HAVING INFO ON RUSSIA BUT TOO CLOSE TO ELECTION TO RELEASE.

THAT WAS QUICK. Clinton wins Nevada.

Robby Mook promised us Nevada early this week. But John Ralston reports Clinton's victory is in the bag as of early today with Democrats with a 90,000 vote lead in early voting. Ralston says that even if Hillary loses independents, she wins the state by 2 points. As of Today, she is winning the independents.

KURT EICHENWALD'S NEWSWEEK'S COVER

++The cover story has to do with Trump businesses destroying emails that were ordered by court orders. Eichenwald details how furious court authorities over this and lawyers from the plaintiffs. 

ABC'S BRIAN ROSS DETAILS HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS TRUMP HAS IN RUSSIAN BUSINESS

TRUMP REFUSES TO PAY HIS POLLSTER $750,000.

OHIO--SOULS TO THE POLLS

++The African-American churches produced a surge of voting in Ohio. 15% of those early voters didn't vote in 2012. 1 million voted in Ohio so far with a 11% Democratic lead. Cuyahoga and Franklin counties vital to the Democrats' hope is the state showed an explosive upsurge.

ABC/POST TRACKING POLL

Clinton 46%
Trump  45%
Johnson  4%
Stein      2%

Clinton 49%
Trump  47%

RASMUSSEN

++Hillary Clinton 45%
   Donald Trump  42%

POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT

Clinton 46%
Trump  43%

Clinton 42%
Trump  39%
Johnson 7%
Stein     5%

Sunday, October 30, 2016

THE NEW YORK DAILY NEWS DEMANDS COMEY RESIGN OR BE FIRED.

++A Mr. Painter,a veteran of the George W. Bush administration,filed an official complaint that Comey violated the Hatch Act. Painter was the chief ethicist at the Bush White House. 

++E.J. Dionne says that Comey capitulated to the House Republicans who were dismayed he didn't charge Clinton with a crime. I tend to doubt that theory as much as he was trying to pacify his rogue agents.

The Pile On Continues..

Business insider,somewhat friendly to Trump, ran four stories about Comey's abuse of power and Reid's letter and its accusations against Trump.

The New York Times editorialized on Comey's abuse of power and speculated how the FBI would treat a party nominee in collusion with Russia and made it quite specific about whether the FBI would drag off computers and boxes of documents from the candidate's Tower. 

WASHINGTONPOST HAS STORY ABOUT FBI AGENTS WANTING TO GO AFTER CLINTON FOUNDATION.

It appears Josh Marshall is right there is a cabal of right-wing roque FBI agents who have been following Breibart stories and seeking to investigate the Clinton Foundation and then the e-mail issue re-surfaced.

Kurt Eichenwald says that every former DOJ official -GOP or Democrat-says that Comey must resign or be fired for election interference. 

Eric Holder and 100 other former DOJ officials are calling for Comey to resign over this snafu.

There are other reports that confirm Harry Reid's accusations that he is withholding information about Trump's collusion with the Russians. 

This is snowballing to the point where Comey is the story not Hillary Clinton.

BACK TO CLEVELAND. CUBS win Game 5 . 3-2 over the Indians.

ANGELA DAVIS TELLS BLACK LIVES MATTER

"There is one river will have to cross on election day" so we can build a movement. That is we first must stop Donald Trump. Angela Davis argued that the young people can't fail to exercise the right to vote because generations sacrificed so much for that. She doesn't agree with the two party system that is so linked to capitalism . But like it or not, she has to vote for Hillary Cinton if there will remain any space in the country for her radical politics.  An interesting argument.

A POPULIST-NATIONALIST RIGHT? NO,THANKS!

William Kristol decides to wave the flag of #Never Trump in defiance. In the November 7th edition of the Weekly Standard he takes on Pat Buchanan who recently wrote about the weaknesses of liberal democracy. Kristol has to set up the boogie man of the nanny-state--security net sure but no smothering blanket. But the piece is a decent defense of liberal democracy and against Trump. We don't need the ethnic populism and right-wing nationalism of Europe. 

Kristol is aiming for the audience of Republicans who treasure the American tradition of conservatism which Kristol sees as preserving liberal democracy. 

In the New York Times Ross Douhat did his usual gymnastics about why Clinton is better than Trump because of all the things Kristol says in his piece.

Where these people will go after this election is anyone's guess. But we owe them some respect. Robert Kagan was the first on the right to raise the question of Trump's fascism. Jennifer Rubin has had a series of blistering anti-Trump op-eds from a #Never Trump perspective. And Michael Gerson has blasted the hypocrisy of the religious right embracing this monster. 

Theirs is a lonely place.

DEEPLY DISTURBING

Josh Marshall has a must read on the Comey fiasco. If you recall Marshall who originally thought Comey was just covering his ass in a maladroit fashion with his letter now believes he is being played by rogue FBI agents who have been trying to find all sorts of ways to investigate the Clinton family,including the foundation. Marshall points to Devlin Barrett , a Wall Street Journal author,who seems to have the ear of the rogue agents who printed a piece today about the sequence of events on the e-mails. 

Previously Marshall caught out Barrett in his reporting on Terry McAuliffe's donation to a wife of an FBI agent who was running for office. These rogue agents tried to make this a corruption case and were knocked down by DOJ. Marshall fields Comey was trying to fend off complaints by these officials, 

PENCE SAYS TRUMP WILL NOT RELEASE TAXES BEFORE THE ELECTION.

SAM WANG AT HIS WEBSITE

Under "Testing the polarization Hypothesis",Sam expands on his Times' piece. He opined that stories have three-day cycles, so he says Trump is now due for a bad story. The whole piece makes interesting reading and he urges readers to focus of Senate races.

More on Robbie Mook's Nevada Comments

++Mook's emphasis on Nevada in his Face The Nation interview seemed re-assuring but strange when all of us are thinking about Ohio and Florida. But, according to John Ralston,"if the turnout trend continues it is almost impossible for Trump to win."

The Democrats now have a 7 point lead over the Republicans or about the same as Obama's win. They have a 90,000 advantage.

If you are playing inside baseball,you know if Clinton wins Nevada,she could lose Florida,North Carolina,Ohio, Iowa,Arizona,and Georgia, and still win the presidency.

That's what Mook knows.

TIM KAINE TO HAVE RALLY IN ARIZONA ON NOVEMBER 3.

CBS/YOU GOVE EARLY COLORADO VOTING

Clinton 55%
Trump 38%

FROM HARRY REID'S LETTER TO JAMES COMEY

"in my communications with you and other officials in the national security community,it has become clear that you possess "explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump ,his top advisers, and the Russian government "-a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States which Trump openly praises at every opportunity.

CBS/YOUGOV ARIZONA SENATE

McCain 43%
Kirkpatrick 38%
Someone Else 5%
Undecided    11%

MAINE: PORTLAND PRESS HERALD POLL

Clinton 48%
Trump  37%
Johnson  5%
Stein      3%

2nd District:
Clinton 43%
Trump  40%

ROBBIE MOOK ON FACE THE NATION

"We have 50,000 volunteers out there. Early voting numbers are good in North Carolina and Florida. Nevada turnout so strong among Democrats that Hillary will have an insurmountable lead in coming days and should put Nevada out of reach this week. We are feeling good about the record turnout. 200 million are registered, 50 million are young people."

UTAH. SALT LAKE CITY TRIBUNE

Trump 32%
McMullin 30%
Clinton  24%

David Pflouffe'sTweet--Better Than My Essay

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer. Don't fret or wet."

9 Days Out-WHERE ARE WE?

Hillary Clinton is still polling higher than Obama in 2012. The turnout looks like it will be large by American standards and that it is likely Hillary Clinton will win the presidency with more popular votes than anyone in our history. 

The road to 270 for Donald Trump has vanished. He needs both North Carolina and Pennsylvania. He won't get them.

The demographics in this election make Iowa and Ohio lean more Republican while the southwestern states and even Florida lean Democratic. The GOP is quickly becoming the dinosaur in the Northeast and the West coast.

While Sam Wang dismisses Clinton's chances of winning Texas. The early voting in Texas is impressive in Democratic parts of the state, which shows the Hispanic electorate has come alive. Why is this important? US Today ran a story two days ago how George W. Bush won Arizona, New Mexico,Nevada, and Florida but those days are dwindling for the Republicans. We remember how Wilson in California put an anti-immigration bill to referendum and we haven't seen Republicans except for Issa and Mccarthy in California since. California produced Nixon and Reagan and was thought to produce GOP Presidents while Texas soon took its place. With a purple Texas,the GOP will cease to be a national Party. 

There has been alot of discussion about this. Rachel Maddow had an interview with Doris Kearns about this election in today's New York Times. Kearns cited demagogues like Huey Long and George Wallace as comparable to Trump. But she explicitly noted TR in his fight against Taft as an example of a party disintegrating. She also noted Bryan's campaign fighting against industrialization and capitalism as an example of candidates trying to battle rapid change.

Nate Silver this week had a panel to discuss a comparable situation to having a major party's nominee rejected by the established party. 25% of all elected Republicans reject Trump. Some argued Watergate was an example and some argued back to the disintegration of the Democratic Party in 1856. Silver felt the short term prospects of the party weren't bad but the long term was awful. Bill Bartlett, former Reagan GBO head, said after Trump the GOP was no longer a presidential party.

Silver things the chances of it splintering are slim but his panel thought a solid 34% of the party would be racist,sexist and xenophobic. And that part of the party would dominate the near future.

Why the GOP doesn't appear to think they are in trouble is that they will likely control 28 state house, the House and have a tie in the Senate. They are already planning to make Hillary a one-term President and de-legitimnzing her. Then what? 

I would argue the Rovian three-legged stool for GOP success was vanquished in the South Carolina primary. There the electorate was heavily military and religious. Trump destroyed the neo-conservative arguments on defense and foreign policy, fiscal conservatives with his trade policies and muddled social conservatives. 

The Never Trump has produced splendid op-eds but a lonely former CIA officer and Mormon McMullen does not a movement make. The religious right has disgraced itself in this election with Farwell backing Trump despite Trump's sexual behavior. 

The top of the GOP has collapsed. Compare Hillary's surrogates with Trump's. No GOP leader wants to touch Trump except Newt and Rudy who are in their seventies. Who will lead a recovery? The problem is that the GOP had an autopsy in 2012 precisely because they thought they should have won the election. This time they are under no illusions. Now they are a  bunch of plutocrat donors who can play their ideological games in states. Nothing else.

Where does that leave us with this election? It is not so clear like one blogger said that the GOTV is worse than Obama's in 2012 in Ohio and Florida. That's part of the election we don't see. Univision had accomplished their task of registering millions more Hispanics and the polls of Latino Decisions show Hispanics are more enthused this time around. Ohio we only know that Democrats are doing well in the early voting but are minus "Golden Week" which made black voting easier. We know the Clinton campaign just added 300 new offices for GOTV in Pennsylvania. Nevada's early voting is showing Democrats are outpacing the GOP even in GOP-leaning counties. 

The true toss-ups are GOP states like Georgia, Arizona, Utah and Alaska, which didn't happen at this stage in 2008 or 2012. 

Now Comey's weird letter. Anecdotally GOTV people have found 3 turned off of Clinton to 5 hyper-energized by the letter. GOP just say they are horrified. My sense is that democratic activists are more energized by Comey's letter because they believe it is an affront not only to Hillary Clinton but a distinct break in the rules of the DOJ not to comment on such matters 60 days out from the election. 

Today we saw a slight deflation in Hillary's polls but that should change this week. 

Let's remember Hillary Clinton won the debates by a larger percentage than anyone in modern debating history. 

But virtually nothing Trump has said or done has affected him in anyway. Sam Wang in an oped in the New York Times writes in "Why Trump Stays Afloat" that the same forces that brought him this far are keeping him from falling off the map. His range is 39% to 43%. 

Sam who says don't use his website as therapy at Princeton Election Consortium does point to the American Psychological Association as issuing tips for dealing with election-related stress. When tempers run high,entrenched support for a candidate or candidate is more likely. So Sam says that there is no one left to persuade. "We're too freaked out"

He also said "We are too scared not to vote." because both sides see the other's victory as having horrifying consequences. 

Now I use Wang's website as therapy ,it's cheaper. Sam's point throughout the primaries and the general election campaign has been that this is the most stable polling situation since the end of WWII. The other day he slapped us down by saying Hillary's lead is not 4 or 8, it is six. Even with the Comey letter. Huffpost said that Hillary's lead was really 6 points.

Remember Obama won 2012 with 3.9 points.  And he was black. 

Polls will be bizarre the next few days but we should be able to piece together how GOTV is going in selected states. But remember the question is how big a victory is Hillary Clinton going to enjoy not whether she wins.

About violence,that is a subject for another column.


KURT EICHENWALD NEW COVER STORY ON TRUMP IN TOMORROW'S NEWSWEEK.

NYTIMES/SIENA POLL: FLORIDA

Trump 46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 4%
Stein     2%.

I have a question about these polls in heavily Hispanic states, are the newly registered covered and are non-English speaking people contacted. This was an issue with African-Americans and the debate over landlines versus cellphones. If Hispanics are under polled, Hillary is likely to over perform in Florida,Arizona,Texas,Nevada and even California.

SAM WANG: IF HILLARY WINS TEXAS,I'LL EAT A BUG."

HUFFPOST: NO PLAUSIBLE WAY TRUMP TO GET TO 270.

ADDITIONAL NOTES ON NBC/WSJ/MARIST POLLS

36% of Florida voters say they have voted. Clinton 54% to Trump 37%.
Trump leads with those who have yet voted. 51% to 42%.

In North Carolina, 29% have voted. Hillary 61% to 33%. Don't know split of those who haven't voted. 

Today is "Souls to the Polls" Sunday, where black churches take their congregations to vote.

NBC/WSJ/MARIST


North Carolina:
Clinton 47%
Trump  41%
Johnson 8%

Florida:

Clinton 45%
Trump  44%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

Clinton 46%
Trump  46%

BREIBART/GRAVIS; FLORIDA

++Clinton 48%
   Trump  47%
   Johnson  1%
   Stein      0%
 Unsure     3%

Interesting poll in that it shows the Rubio/Murphy Senate race tied. And opinion divided about whether Comey should have sent the letter.

NATIONAL POLLS

ABC TRACKING POLL:

Clinton 46%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%
Stein     2%

Clinton 49%
Trump  46%

IBD/TPP

Clinton 44%
Trump  42%
Johnson 6%
Stein     2%

CBS/VOTE GOV BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLS

Arizona:

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 4%
Stein     1%

North Carolina;

Clinton 48%
Trump  42%
Johnson 3%

Pennsylvania:

Clinton 48%
Trump  40%
Johnson 5%
Stein      2%

Colorado:

Clinton 42%
Trump  39%
Johnson 7%
Stein     2%

12% are more likely to vote for Hillary because of FBI statement.  About 70+% could care less.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

"WE MUST IMAGINE SISYPHUS AS HAPPY." ALBERT CAMUS

CLEVELAND INDIANS BEAT CUBS 7-2. ONE WIN AWAY.

EMERSON STATE POLLS

*Note: 538 has a calculator which changes Emerson polls into the real results. They factor in the GOP-lean.

Florida:
Clinton 46%
Trump  45%
Johnson 4%
Stein     2%

Ohio:
Clinton 45%
Trump  45%
Johnson  6%
Stein      1%

Wisconsin:
Clinton 48%
Trump   42%
Johnson   9%
Stein       1%

MINNESOTA: SURVEY USA

Clinton 49%
Trump  39%
Johnson  5%
Stein      2%

FBI HAS HAD ABEDIN'S E-MAILS SINCE APRIL.

FBI Director Comey could have classified his letter to Congressional leaders.

Democratic Senators have demanded a full answer by Monday.

ALASKA-Craciun Research

Clinton 47%
Trump  43%
Johnson  7%
Stein      3%

MICHAEL ISHIKOFF REPORTS FBI DOESN'T HAVE SEARCH WARRANTS FOR NEW E-MAILS.

AAI-ZOGBY POLL OF ARAB-AMERICANS.

It's hard to remember that Arab-Americans voted 99.5% for Bush. James Zogby at Huffington Post has an op-ed where he explains the fiscal conservatism that attracted Arabs to Republicans. However, today, they favor Clinton at 60% and Trump at 26%. There number one issue is jobs and the economy.

At Daytona Beach,Hillary Tells FBI "Put it all on the Table"

She called Comey's letter troubling, unprecedented to be released just before the election.She obviously not defensive and on the attack.

NEW MEXICO EARLY VOTE: 53%DEMS TO 35% REPS.

NASTY WOMAN IN THIS HOUSEHOLD VOTED FRIDAY FOR A NASTY WOMAN.

NOW THIS IS ONE WAY TO DEPRESS YOUR OWN TURNOUT

Trump tells his supporters today that election officials will throw out mail-in ballots. That should be interesting to voters in Oregon--we should see results of no one voting. Again Colorado, over one million have voted by mail already.

IPSOS/REUTERS

++Over 20% of the electorate has voted early. Clinton leads Trump by 15% in early voting ,even in Arizona,Texas, and Georgia. They call Arizona now a Swing state. 

++In Ohio, Clinton has a double digit lead.

Ipsos says Clinton will win with at least 278 electoral votes and probably more. They estimate her chances of winning today at 95%.

20,423,272 VOTED!

INTERESTING TOSS-UPS AT TPM

Nevada,Arizona, Utah, Georgia.

COMEY BROKE WITH LYNCH ON E-MAILS

Jane Mayer at the New Yorker reported that Comey sent his letter Loretta Lynch warned him that DOJ rules forbade the Department from interfering with an election and impugning the reputation of a candidate during a campaign. Comey sent the letter anyway.

There is no re-opening the case. In fact,the exiles  appear to be duplicates of what they already have. Kurt Eichenwald at Newsweek explains why this may be the case. Huma Abedin used to print hard copies from her laptop to deliver to Hillary Clinton via courier.

In his letter to Congress, Comey suggests he did not have access to this material. Chris Matthews said the FBI had access to this material 40 days ago. Apparently,it involved the case against Anthony Weiner. Weiner used his wife's laptop and the FBI thought it might be relevant to his case.

The Washington Post now has a lead story with a "senior official with DOJ" says Comey had  been warned about interfering with an election. Read the source as Loretta Lynch.

So it not about Hillary's email server and it has nothing to do with anything Hillary sent over the internet. And this morning's quote from the FBI that they are searching for "classified material" is rubbish.

Meanwhile Hillary lost 2 its in the tracking poll--which is a direct consequence of this.

IBD/TPP

Clinton 45%
Trump  41%
Johnson 7%
Stein     2%

ABC TRACKING

Clinton 47%
Trump  45%
Johnson  4%
Stein      2%


Friday, October 28, 2016

REUTERS POLL

Clinton 43.4%
Trump  34.0%
Other     9.8%
Refused  7.6%
Not Voting 5.3%

GAME 3: INDIANS BEAT CUBS 1-0

WEIRD: MARSHALL REPORTS ALL NEW EMAILS DUPES OF THOSE FBI HAD.

CORRECTION: JUDGE SET DATE FOR TRUMP RAPE CASE,NOT RATE.

THE SAME TIME COMEY SENT THE LETTER,JUDGE SETS TRUMP RATE DATE FOR DECEMBER 16.

EMERSON STATE POLLS

New Hampshire:
Clinton 46%
Trump  43%
Johnson  6%
Stein      2%

(Monmouth University)

Clinton 46%
Trump  42%
Johnson 7%
Stein     1%

Pennsylvania: (Emerson)

Clinton 48%
Trump  43%
Johnson 6%
Stein     0%

Michigan:
Clinton 50%
Trump  43%
Johnson  3%
Stein      3%

Nevada: (Gravis)
Clinton 46%
Trump  46%
Johnson  3%

HILLARY PROMISES TO PRESERVE MICHELLE'S WHITE HOUSE GARDEN.

BOB DYLAN BREAKS SILENCE,WILL ACCEPT THE NOBEL PRIZE--IF HE CAN.

ALLIANCE/ESA STATE POLLS

Pennsylvania:

Clinton 47%
Trump  40%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

Ohio:
Clinton 45%
Trump  42%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

North Carolina:
Clinton 46%
Trump  44%
Johnson 5%
Stein      1%

New Hampshire:
Clinton 46%
Trump  40%
Johnson  7%
Stein      2%

Nevada:
Clinton 44%
Trump  41%
Johnson  9%
Stein      2%

Florida:
Trump 46%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 2%
Stein     1%

THE EMAILS ARE FROM ANTHONY WEINERS' DEVICES

FLORIDA:PPP

++Clinton 48%
   Trump   44%

++Murphy 46%
   Rubio   46%

MISSOURI: POST-DISPATCH

Trump 47%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 3%
Stein     1%

NO.THE FBI IS NOT RE-OPENING THE EMAIL INVESTIGATION.

It must have been a slow news day because the major networks lept on the story and Rep. Chaveetz released a letter staying the FBI was. The emails in question were not from Hillary Clinton or her email server.

FLORIDA. ST LEO UNIVERSITY

Clinton 52%
Trump  39.4%

Without leaners
Clinton 49.7%
Trump  36.7%

NOV.2 HILLARY IN ARIZONA

THE RIGHT'S FAVORITE POLL THIS CYCLE-IBD-TPP

Clinton 44%
Trump  41%

ABC TRACKING

Clinton 48%
Trump  44%
Johnson 4%
Stein     1%

Clinton 50%
Trump  45%

CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT CENTER- VIRGINIA

Clinton 46%
Trump  39%

Thursday, October 27, 2016

SAM WANG HAS HILLARY AT 99% PROBABILITY OF WINNING.

OBAMA'S 08 FLORIDA DIRECTOR SAYS WE'LL KNOW FLORIDA'S RESULTS NEXT WEDNESDAY

CLINTON CONSIDERS JOE BIDEN FOR SECRETARY OF STATE.

TEXAS: TEXAS TRIBUNE/UT

Trump 45%
Clinton 42%
Johnson  7%
Stein      2%
Someone Else 5%

ARIZONA: SEGURO STRATEGIES

++Gop 43% and Democrats 37% in make-up

Clinton 48%
Trump  46%
Johnson  7%
Stein      1%

CNN: POLL OF POLL

Clinton 47%
Trump  41%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

HUFFPOST: CLINTON 97.8%, TRUMP 2.2%

PEW POLL

Clinton 50%
Trump  43%
Other     3%
Don't Know 4%

Clinton 46%
Trump  40%
Johnson  6%
Stein      3%
Other     5%

15,455,308 HAVE VOTED.

STEVE BENEN'S DISCOVERY

Pollsters have been asking whether the country was going in the right or wrong direction for years? What if they asked," How well are things going in the country?"

Steve Benen at Rachel Maddowblog picked up the CNN/ORC poll that asked that very question. For the first time in ten years,54% say things are either going very well or quite well. 

Thanks Obama.

QUINNIPIAC-STATE POLLS

Georgia:
Clinton 44%
Trump  44%
Johnson 8%

Clinton 46%
Trump 46%

Iowa:
Clinton 44%
Trump  44%
Johnson  4%

Trump 47%
Clinton 46%

North Carolina:

Clinton 47%
Trump 43%
Johnson 5%

Clinton 50%
Trump 44%

Virginia:
Clinton 50%
Trump  38%
Johnson  4%

Clinton 53%
Trump 40%

LOUISIANA-SMOR

Trump 50%
Clinton 35%

NEW HAMPSHIRE-U MASS

Clinton 43%
Trump  38%
Johnson 8%
Stein     3%

MICHIGAN POLLS

FOX
Clinton 48%
Trump  42%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

Detroit Free News
Clinton 41%
Trump  34%
Johnson  9%
Stein      3%

CNBC 4-WAY

Same poll reported before but with the 4-way numbers.

Clinton 43%
Trump  34%
Johnson  7%
Stein      2%

Clinton 47%
Trump  37%

COOK REPORT: DEMS TO PICK UP 10-20 HOUSE SEATS.

News4JAX/UNF--FLORIDA

Clinton 43%
Trump  39%
Johnson 6%
Stein     3%
Undecided 9%

Clinton 46%
Trump  44%

The poll director said the polls was evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. He said Democrats were outperforming their norms in early voting and mail-in ballots . "If this continues, Clinton should expand her margin and win Florioda easily."

CALIFORNIA/PPI

PPI SAYS TRUMP'S NUMBERS ARE GOING INTO UNCHARTED AREA>

CLINTON 54%
Trump    28%

Washington Post/ABC Tracking Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump  42%
Johnson  5%
Stein      1%
None      3%

CNBC SURVEY

Clinton 46%
Trump  37%

FOR THE PERSON WHO CALLED TO SAY IT'S IN PLAY

Pennsylvania; UPSHOT/Siena

Clinton 46%
Trump  39%
Johnson  6%
Stein      3%
Other     7%

YOUGOV ELECTION MODEL:CLINTON 313, TRUMP 225.

TRUMP'S NUMBER MAN SPEAKS

++Bloomberg reports that Brad Pascale, who does the numbers for the Trump campaign, says "Our numbers agree with Nate Silver's. It's just that he's behind by two weeks because he uses public polls."

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

SO TODAY, CLINTON LED ALL NATIONAL POLLS

Having said that, based on Nate Silver's numbers, Hillary Clinton just with the states where she is over 7 points in the lead has 273 EVs to Trump's 164.

Now add those where she has a lead with over 3, she has 308 Evs and Trump is still stuck at 164.

So rest easy with the horse race analogies.

TEXAS UT/TT

Trump 45%
Clinton 42%
Johnson  7%
Stein      2%
Someone Else 5%

CUBS WIN SECOND GAME OF THE WORLD SERIES 5-1.

CLINTON ALREADY AT 270,DOESN"T NEED EITHER OHIO OR FLORIDA.

TEXAS. AUSTIN AMERICAN STATESMAN

Trump 45%
Clinton 38%

VERMONT: BRAUN RESEARCH

Clinton 50%
Trump  22%
Johnson 7%
Stein     2%
Other   10%

Correction: the NBC poll showed Trump getting 40% of the Hispanic Vote

IF YOU LIKE HORSE RACES,GO WATCH ONE.

++For the remaining days of the election campaign, you will see a tortured dance on the media about how polls are tightening. Don't believe them. There is a natural tightening that will not effect the outcome. Today's national polls show Hillary is basically blow down the house.

++NBC had a poll in Nevada that showed Trump getting 40% of the vote. Jon Halston called them out on this. The GOP leader in the state warned the GOP Women's Group that "we are all going down". The reason he said was that not only was Democratic early voting exceeding 2012 but also that Republicans aren't voting.

++Early tonight, the Democrats moved their organizers from Nevada to Arizona. 

++I Have a question --Where are the "quiet" Trump voters? Certainly not showing up in early voting. In states where Republicans usually lead in early voting such as Florida there are not appearing. 

++Now NBC showed the Bloomberg/Selzer poll of Florida to show Hillary has lost her edge. She has led 20 straight polls in Florida and the GOP says locally they will lose by a landslide. Selzer polls are not very reliable outside of Iowa, where they reign supreme.

++Both sides seem to need the horse race analogy. The Democrats use the Bloomberg poll to raise money and even Robbie Mook raised the issue that it is theoretically possible for Trump to win. Chris Matthews used this argument by saying battleground state polls might prove that Trump can win. Big problem is that he only leads in Ohio.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: MONMOUTH

Clinton 46%
Trump  42%
Johnson 7%
Stein     1%

NBC/WSJ/MARIST POLLS

New Hampshire:
Clinton 45%
Trump  36%
Johnson 10%
Stein       4%

Nevada:
Clinton 43%
Trump  43%
Johnson 10%

AP-GfK POLL

++Clinton 54%
   Trump  41%

++Clinton 51%
   Trump  37%
   Johnson  6%
   Stein      2%

SUFFOLK U. NATIONAL POLL

Clinton 47.40%
Trump  37.60%
Johnson  3.90%
Stein      2.20%
Undecided 7.10%

MONTANA: MONTANA STATE

Trump 42%
Clinton 27%
Johnson 7%
Stein     2%

BLOOMBERG/ SELTZER. FLORIDA

Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein     2%

ABC TRACKER

Clinton 49%
Trump  40%
Johnson  5%
Stein      2%

Clinton 51%
Trump  43%

Reuters/Ipsos Tracking Poll

Registered;
Clinton 43%
Trump  34%

Likely:
Clinton 43%
Trump  37%

4-Way:
Registered:
Clinton 42%
Trump  34%

Likely:
Clinton 42%
Trump  38%

FLORIDA: FLORIDA ATLANTIC

++Clinton 46%
   Trump   43%
   Undecided 6%

Likely voters:
  Clinton 49%
  Trump  43%
 Undecided 7%

HARVARD INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Millennials.

Clinton 49%
Trump  21%
Johnson 14%
Stein       4%.

Clinton leads in all categories including white males. Same as Obama among blacks,slightly lower than Obama among Hispanics.

CLEVELAND INDIANS 6 ,CHICAGO CUBS 0 In Game I

FLORIDA--SURVEY USA

++Clinton 48%
   Trump  45%
    Other    6%

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

TRUMPS ENDS TRANSITION TEAM

Trump ended his transition efforts. I suspect because Chris Christie, his transition manager has legal problems holding him up. He also ended his fund-raising for the Republican party. It was also reported that his great $100 million fund-raising effort for the last two weeks is a bust. Even Fox News' pollsters on air admitted that Hillary has over 300 Electoral votes and that Trump will not gain anymore but will lose more to Hillary. In Virginia, Trump said,"If I lose,the movement dies."

9,436,782 Have Voted.

Benchmark on Trump's lead

Arizona +o.1%
Utah     +4.5%
Texas   +4.0%
Georgia +2.0%
Indiana  +2.4%

In Arizona. Hillary has over 30 field offices, Trump Zero.

HUFFPOST: 96.8% Clinton 3.1% Trump

MINNESOTA/STAR TRIBUNE

Clinton 47%
Trump  39%
Johnson 6%
Stein     1%

ARIZONA-MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY

Trump 46%
Clinton 45%
Johnson  4%
Stein        1%

Clinton Already Voted
52% to Trump 42%.

THE LAST GREENBERG/QUINLAN POLL BEFORE THE ELECTION.

Clinton 50%
Trump  38%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

Clinton 53%
Trump 41%

COLIN POWELL SAYS HE WILL VOTE FOR CLINTON

NBC/SURVEY MONKEY

Clinton 50%
Trump 44%

Clinton 46%
Trump  41%
Johnson  7%
Stein      3%

CHARLIE COOK SAYS DEMS TO PICK UP 5-7 SENATE SEATS

NORTH CAROLINA: NYTIMES/UPSHOT/SIENA COLLEGE

Very detailed poll. Check it out.

Clinton 46%
Trump  39%
Johnson  8%

SAM WANG HAS TEACHING DUTIES,SAYS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OVER.

PEC . 98% Random Drift. 99% Bayesian. 
Clinton's Meta-Margin +4.8%. 
Clinton 336 EV, Trump 202 EV.

Senate: 51 Democrats-49 GOP. 84% Dems to get majority.

YUP,THE LEAD HOLDS. ABC TRACKING POLL

++Clinton 50%
   Trump  38%
   Johnson 5%
   Stein     2%

Margin of error: +/-3%

Monday, October 24, 2016

AMERICA VOTES

Over 7 million people have already voted and the turnout appears to be higher than 2012. 

I get a sense the Democratic enthusiasm is high. What seemed to tip the scale was President Obama supported 30 House candidates and actually taping little messages for their use in fund-raisers, which I have been receiving endlessly. But you do sense a bounce in these candidates steps and a stronger, more affirmative message coming from their campaign instead of we're doomed with only two weeks to go and the Plutocrats are pouring millions in against me.

I also sensed that Hillary Clinton in her speech in Philadelphia finally melded all the themes of this election together in a way she hadn't. There she managed to get into the criticism of her policy wonkiness in a way that the average voter would understand. In short, she said affected by those policies are real people and you can't forget that. She also touched on this in her speech in North Carolina. Her voice is beginning to be a little horse.

But the Democratic machine is running full-cylinders with all surrogates hitting the road. Obama unleashed is fun to watch because all his frustration with Republican obstructionism is coming out and his campaigning for the whole ticket seems to have energized him. 

What has he early voting down so far? It probably won Nevada. Clark County,the Democratic stronghold is coming in at record levels. 100,000 votes mailed out the first week in Colorado have already been returned. And Democrats are in the overwhelming lead. For the first time in Colorado, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. The early reporting from Texas shows historic level voting in Harris County,San Antonio and other places. 

I won't know until later in the week how Florida really shapes up. Remember without Florida,Trump can not win. Record voting is reported In Georgia and Arizona had to change polling centers for the crowds.

In North Carolina we have seen problems with less polling places than in past years and reported problems with voting machines changing voters' choices. 

In Northern Virginia I have heard from Clinton's Get out the Vote people that there is heavy interest in early voting. Strangely the Washington Post reports that Trump and his family are coming to northern Virginia and will be active the last two weeks. None of the GOP strategists can understand.

Perhaps a true indication of how demoralized the other side is is the wacky threat that congressional candidates will sue television stations over ads that linked them to Trump, their party's nominee.

I won't repeat Trump's rantings today but I have been receiving numerous emails about how the Democrats are rigging the vote. Also the polls. Apparently the right and Trump got hold of emails to Podesta in 2008 to weigh samples in polls. (Note: the 2016 campaign doesn't use polls) But if you wanted to get a broader sense of specifics groups you would want larger samples. This doesn't affect the bottom-line findings of the polls. But of course, this is a conspiracy to slant our public polls against Trump via the Way Back machine.

Apparently Trump has launched his own late night news show so you will hear the truth from Der Fuhrer. Some think this is an early example of his Trump network.

Josh Rogin at the Washington Post wondered why Trump decided to criticize our troops fighting in Mosul . Trump tweeted out today that this was Obama pretending to be tough and helping Hillary. No one I know even talks about Mosul, let alone Iraq anymore. 

Michael Moore has launched his Inside Trumpland, which hit number 1 on I-Tunes and Youtube. Moore filmed it in Clinton County ,Ohio amid Trump supporters. In his letter last night he urged everyone to support Code Pink to get out the vote. It seems he is about two elections out of touch with Get Out The Vote efforts.

President Obama blasted Darryl Issa for using a piece of legislation he signed as somehow a  sign Issa cooperates with Obama. When called on it, Issa grumbled about all of Obama's scandals. Name one. 

Joltin' Joe Biden campaigned with Hillary in Youngstown and Toledo, Ohio. Hillary was also with Elizabeth Warren in New Hampshire. There will be GOTV concerts by Katy Perry and (ugh) Bon Jovi in Pennsylvania and Ohio this week.

How long they can maintain this pace is anyone's guess. 


NEVADA: RASMUSSEN

John Ralston ,the state's leading reporter, said "By By Donald" after seeing his paper's poll and now Rasmussen's.

Clinton 46%
Trump  42%
Johnson  6%.

IDAHO-GOOGLE SURVEY

Trump 50%
Clinton27%
McMullin 12%
Johnson   7%
Stein       3%

NEVADA: LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

Clinton 48%
Trump  41%
Johnson  6%
Undecided 4%
Other     1%

GENFORWARD POLL OF MILLENIALS

The take away is that Hillary is on target to get the same % as President Obama of the millennials--60%.  Johnson gets 11% and Stein 4%. 

CNN/ORC NATIONAL POLL

++Clinton 49%
   Trump  44%
   Johnson  3%
   Stein      2%

++Clinton 51%
   Trump  45%

Having the temperament to be president.
Clinton 61%
Trump  36%

Ability to be commander in chief.
Clinton 55%
Trump  40%.