Wednesday, October 31, 2012


++Polltracker at TPM now at 303 for Obama and he has a 1.1% lead in the national poll. It seems there is beginning to be a convergence of agreement on the electoral college outcomes.

The Hits Keep Coming

++PPP--Michigan: Obama 53 to Romney 45.

++PPP--Virginia : Obama 49 to Romney 46.

++NBC/Marist--Iowa: Obama 50 to Romney 44.

++NBC/ Marist--Wisconsin: Obama 49 to Romney 46.

++NBC/Marist--New Hampshire: Obama 49 to Romney 47.

++Gallup-- 54% of Americans believe Obama will be re-elected. 34% believe Romney.

Was Halloween When Obama Took Off

++Mike Huckabee warns you that if you vote for Obama Hell-fires await you.

++Even so, Nate Silver has adjusted his predictions. He now has Obama with a 78.4% chance of winning re-election with 299.7 electoral votes and 50.5% of the popular vote.

++Intrade has it 69.1%.

++Other sites that aggregate polls have Obama now pulling away into the 290s and further into the 300s.

++Drudge promises us a sex scandal. If it's Joe Biden, it is a plus for Obama. If it's Romney ,it would humanize him. If it is Obama, it is likely the old story about Michelle filing divorce papers. But as James Carville used to say, we are down to a dead girl or live boy stage of the election.

++Nate the Great also has it a 90% that Democrats will preserve their Senate majority. He says 53 but others say 53 to 55. 

More Polls on the last day of October

++74% approve of Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy--only 44% can say the same for Willard.

++EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan. Obama 48 to Romney 42.

++Reuters/Ipsos national: Obama 47 to Romney 46.
     52% expect Obama to win; 30% expect Romney.
     Ohio: Obama 48 to Romney 45.
     Virginia: Obama 48 to Romney 46. Among registered voters Obama 54 to Romney 37. So it is done to GOTV.
     Florida: Obama 47 to Romney 47.
     Colorado: Romney 46 to 45.

++Polls out of Michigan and Wisconsin suggest that Romney really isn't trying to enlarge the map but spend his excess money. Both campaigns have reserved $40 million each for the last few days.

While the President is in New Jersey

++National Journal National: Obama 50 Romney 45.

++ABC/Washington Post: Obama 49 Romney 49.

++Wisconsin: Marquette University Obama 51,R43

++Ohio:U of Cincinnati: Obama 48 to Romney 46.

++Ohio: PPP:  Obama 50 to Romney 45.

++Colorado: Grove: Obama 48 to Romney 45.

++North Carolina: PPP Obama 49 to Romney 49.

Sam Wang is off line.

Sam Wang Recovers from Sandy

++Princeton Consortium's latest: 
Obama 318 EV Romney 220EV, Obama meta-margin 2.60. Drift 95% 99% Prediction. 

The Final Stretch

++PPP Iowa Obama 50 to Romney 45.

++PPP Wisconsin Obama 51 to Romney 46.

++Mellman Group  Florida Obama 49 to 47.

++NYT/Quinnpiac Ohio  Obama 50 to Romney 45.

++NYT/Quinnipiac Virginia Obama 49 to Romney 47.

++NYT/Quinnipiac Florida Obama 48 to Romney 47.

Nate The Great Silver: Obama 299 EV,77.4% and 50.4 PV.

Nearly one-quarter of a billion bucks will be spent in the remaining time by Superpacs in attacks ads against President Obama.  So here's to Early Voting. In Ohio,according to Quinnipiac,with 25% in, Obama 60 to Romney 34.
In Florida, with 20% in, Obama 50 to Romney 44.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Wang Update

++Sam Wang tweeted his numbers a bit. Obama now at 305-233 EV. Meta-margin up to 2.36.

++Charlie Cook said that he had access to the internal polls of the campaigns and that Obama was not only good in Nevada and Wisconsin, he was solid in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Any hysteria about Romney actually making a real play in these states is nonsense.

++Grove--Colorado--Obama 48 to Romney 45.

++Grove--Nevada--Obama 48 to Romney 45.

++Late tonight, the NYT/Quinnipiac polls for Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Sandy--There are Fireworks over Little Eden tonight

++The President did what Presidents do and Willard gathered can goods in Ohio because cleaning up after Sandy is like "picking up trash" after a football game. John McCain, ole Walnuts, told the Ohio crowd that Obama was not competent to be Commander in Chief because of Benghazi.

++Now for the summaries of the electoral college one week out:
PPP           Obama 332    Romney 206
Electoral Vote    O 303    R           220
Princeton           O 303    R           235
538                   O 295    R           243
RCP                      290                 248
Electoral Scoreboard 282             256
Electoral     280             235
Sabato                      267             235
TPM                          265             206
Pollster                     253             206
Cook                        253              191
CNN                         237              206

++Charlie Cook says Obama is safe in Nevada and Wisconsin and it is now even money in North Carolina and Florida.

++Ohio.  Survey USA   Obama 50 to Romney 46
               Pharos           Obama 49 to Romney 46
            Project New America Obama 48 to Romney 45
           Survey USA for Columbus Paper Obama 48 to Romney 45.

Over 1.26 million people have already voted in Ohio.

++Florida. Survey USA Romney 48 to Obama 47.
++North Carolina. Survey USA Romney 50 to Obama 45

++National Polls
   **Survey USA  Obama 47  Romney 47
   **PPP              Obama 49  Romney 49
   **Reuters/Ipsos Obama 47 Romney 46
   **Rand            Obama 50.5 Romney 45.5
   **CBS/NYT      Obama  48.  Romney 47
   **NPR             Romney 48   Obama 47
   **Gallup (registered)Romney 48 Obama 48
   **Rasmussen  Romney 49   Obama 47  1 other

++Sam Wang: 303-235   meta-margin 2.30. Anything above a 1 means Obama wins. Random Drift 93% Bayesian Prediction 98%

++Nate Silver 294.6-243.4. 72.9% win 50.3% popular vote.

++DeSart/Holbrooke 281-257, 51.38%-48.62 popular vote and 86.66% probability of Obama win.

++RichardCharnin's blog. The Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Monte Carlo Simulation Model;

Obama 310 EV. 97.4% probability.

If the election were fraud free, Obama would have 54.2% of the vote and 348EV. The rest of the blog is chilling about voter fraud and whether Obama can escape its fate.

++A blogger ran 270 to Win's simulation over 100 times and came up with 90-95% Obama win. The average EV was 302.

++Drew Lenzer of Votamatic wrote on his blog today that if the models like Nate Silver and Sam Wang fail this election that is the biggest story. The reason is because of a failure of the polls. He explained how the various models handle errors in polls and refuted the right-wing claims that Obama favoring polls somehow have changed the models results. 

++CIRCLE survey young people aged 18 to 29. Obama leads 52 to 35. 

++Virginia--Survey USA Obama 48 to Romney 47. If you hear Virginia called for Obama on election night,celebrate. 

++Gallup Approval Rating for Obama 51%. 

Monday, October 29, 2012

With A Week To Go

++Popular Vote appearing tied in national polls. The Washington Post tracking is now 49 to 49 with President Obama's approval rating above 50. PPP,IBD,Gallup and others are quitting their tracking poll and Rasmussen, who has a server in the Hurricane area, says he hasn't made up his mind.

++Sam Wang dinged Obama two EVs bringing him down to 303 and his odds down to 97% probability he'll be re-elected.

++TTwick has a social media poll, which has Obama at 47.90 and Romney at 46.00. 

++Rasmussen Ohio poll just got bumped by the Mellman poll showing Obama at 49-Romney at 44.

++New America has a Nevada poll which shows Obama at 49 and Romney at 43 with Democratic voters easily leading the early voting.

++Gravis weighs in with a 48 to 48 tie in Virginia. 

++The Obama campaign has responded to Romney's bizarre ad where he claims he has a plan to rebuild the auto industry. He is back to claiming that he will do everything President Obama has done but better.

++The question in a week is which country shows up the vote--a more diversified electorate or a more monolithic one like in 2010. Republicans are boasting that undecideds break for the challenger, despite the history of the last two presidential elections. Democrats claim 60% of the undecideds are women and they are breaking 75% for Obama. The other question is whether Romney can keep Obama below 40% among all white voters and for Obama can he keep Romney below 30% of the Hispanic vote.

++Meanwhile Drudge and Politico are trashing Nate Silver as the villain of the election. Nate had Obama a little down today but the President still is in command of both the electoral and popular vote in Nate's rankings.

Souls to the Polls

++From his bunker in Princeton, Sam Wang says it is Obama 305 and 233 Romney. Meta-margin is +2.20. Probabilities--Fading--91%, Predictive at 98%. Obama's electoral vote range is 287 to 327. 

++Gallup has suspended its tracking poll. Maybe they heard Nate Silver say "Four out of five dentists recommend. Gallup is the fifth dentist", referring to their history the past three electoral cycles.

++Both Paul Krugman and Sam Wang have jumped into defend Nate Silver from the rash of right-wing criticism. Their point is that this is all a piece of the right attacking science and scientific method. Krugman argues it is the same with the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and job numbers.

++The latest is that the Right is claiming that the government is going to withhold the Friday job statistics to help Obama's re-election. Senator Grassley weighed in supporting this nonsense. Naturally in the middle of Hurricane Sandy, the Labor Department had to debunk the notion, saying they were trying to get the figures out despite the natural disaster.

++Souls to the Polls--It seems the effort by the African-American community in North Carolina is paying off. 30% of all African-Americans there have voted. That is not registered voters--but all African-Americans over the age of 18. There is an expectation that over 60% of African-Americans will vote there by election day.

++Latino Decisions reports that 87% of Hispanics say they are almost certain to vote and that 8% have already voted. They now favor President Obama by 73% to 21%. On the economy, they favor Obama 73% to 18% over Romney. Enthusiasm has grown over the last few months of polling --51-56-59% saying they are very enthusiastic. When Latino Decisions started polling a few months ago--Latinos saying they were likely to vote started in the early 80s and now is at 87%.

++Reuters/Ipsos has the national race 48 to 47 but they reveal some interesting tidbits. 16% of the Republicans who crossed to vote for Obama. Only 6% of Democrats did. 22% of the country has already voted and Obama leads 58 to 39. 

++ARG National poll has it tied up at 48 to 48. They assume the electorate will be 77% white and that Obama is getting 39% of the White Vote.

++Pew has come out with a new national poll and it is tied 47 to 47. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47 to 45.

++Rasmussen Tracking is 49 Romney to 47 Obama--1 other and 2% undecided. With the house effect of 2 Republican, this would make it tied.

++UPI--Obama 48 to Romney 47.

++Politico--Obama 49 to 48. Already voted 53 Obama to 45 Romney.

++Rasmussen--Ohio--Romney 50 to Obama 48. But Obama leads early voting 62 to 36.

++Elon--North Carolina--Obama 45 to Romney 45. Early voting : Obama 55 to Romney 43.

++Florida--CNN--50 Romney to 49 Obama, but with likely it is 48 to 48.

++ARG Colorado--Romney 48 to Obama 47. But they have 42% of Latinos voting for Romney.

++Lake--New Hampshire. Obama 47 to Romney 42 and 4 for Johnson. 

++Obama Gallup Approval rating 51%.

++Gallup unemployment rate is 7.1%.

++Stan Greenberg put out a memo today saying that 37% of all Americans only use cell phones and that those groups favoring Obama are less likely to have landlines and this affects the national polling.

++Bill Clinton campaigned for President Obama in Orlando, Florida and later in Youngstown, Ohio. The former President said that Romney is running to take credit for Obama 's economic recovery. Clinton pointed out that economists all agree that the GDP will soon be hitting 4% again and that job creation is going to take off over the next four years. He's right and that's why Romney told his secret donors that he really doesn't have to do anything for the economy to come back.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Getting Close

++The rain has started here. The Jersey Shore is being evacuated. It looks like this one will be big.

++Meanwhile President Obama has been on the phone with Chris Christie and other Governors in the storm's aim to reassure them he will provide anything they need.

++Meanwhile it looks like the Swing States are being firmed up. John Ralston reports that Neil Newhouse, the pollster for the Romney campaign,is extremely skeptical they can compete in Nevada. More news out of Colorado has made people like Nate Silver to up the probability Obama will also take it. 

++The PPP poll in New Hampshire has Obama 49 to 47, which was an increase over their last poll. People now put New Hampshire in Obama's column.

++In Ohio, PPP has Obama at 51 to 47 now, another increase over their last poll. Gravis has Obama 50 to 49 over Romney there. Nice news is PPP showing Sherrod Brown leading with 53 to 42. 

++A Consenus is emerging that Virginia with its 12 electoral points are now looking solidly Obama, which I doubted.

++Add the movements in the last few days up and President Obama is looking at 303--some other blogger got to 306. But I'll take 303.

++The two outstanding states which deserve watching are Florida and North Carolina. Nate Silver has Romney winning them with overwhelming odds yet anecdotally from the Early Voting and registrations this ain't necessarily so.

++Tomorrow prepare to be bummed out by the Politico/George Washington Swing State poll, which is supposed to show Romney improving his odds. I don't know. The electoral map is betting smaller by the hour.

Ending the Day

++Now I feel more comfortable. Sam Wang has Obama at 300EV and Romney at 238EV. The meta-margin went up to 2.14. The Flexible % at 90 and the Prediction at 97%. Obama's odds are now 10 to 1.

++The Obama campaign has leaked out its internals on Colorado, which I had been concerned about. They have a five point lead in the polling there.

++PPP has Obama now up by 2 in New Hampshire.

++The Ohio Obama campaign says that early voting continues very much in their favor, that Ohio is really moving their way. This, despite Romney's closing pitch that he really is the Auto Industry candidate and that he really will protect the Jeep jobs from not going to China--since they never were. It's a cool technique--generate the threat,pretend it never was false, then say you are the reason the jobs will be staying. Sort of like the intimidation of the corporate bosses saying they will sure you if you vote for Obama.

++Watch Florida --the Democrats are exceeding their 2008 totals. I had written Florida off this year because of Governor Scott and the nature of the state. Maybe not.

++Andrew Sullivan showed up on television to make the astute comment that it looks like Romney might win the Old Confederacy. I tend to think that way also. It is the Union against the Confederacy. After all the Mormons were for slavery and the South.

++The latest is a claim that Obama watched as the people in Benghazi died. Watch for this to assume conspiracy status soon after Hurricane Sandy disappears.

You Are Like A Hurricane

++Hunkering down do Hurricane Sandy. Everybody's nerves are on end. You can tell, even Sam Wang tweeted this morning,"Don't give a flying f*&ck what a single poll says. Gallup--especially." 

++Wang has Obama at 299, Romney at 239. the meta-margin at 2.04. Random Drift at 89% and Prediction at 97% certainty.

++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 49 to Romney 46.
++ABC/Washington Post--48 Obama, 49 Romney.

++Priorities 2012 mirrors Post poll,which showed Obama with a lead. Obama 49 to Romney 46.

++Electoral has two toss-ups left--Iowa and Virginia. Virginia looks like it is fading away and Tom Kaine looks like he will be the next Senator.

++Watch for a surprise in North Carolina election evening. Last time Obama won a microscopic victory. But the news from the Obama campaign is almost startling this time. Early Voting, especially by African-Americans and young people dwarf 2008, and new registrations give Democrats a huge lead. I've written this state off to Romney since the beginning. But I am not so sure now.

++Nevada early voting still looks good for Obama. The Repubicans would have to take a 5pt lead in Washpoe County to have a shot. And there is no evidence of it.

++President Obama will return to Washington to monitor the Hurricane on Monday. He will appear at a rally in Youngstown,Ohio and then return home.

++Ann Romney is so helpful. She says her husband will do away with the public school system in America.

++Angus Reid is the new Senator from Maine. The Republicans withdrew so the Harley-driving ex-Governor will be an independent and likely to caucus with the Democrats.

++Watch for Bob Kerrey to make a real run for Senator from Nebraska. What looked like a lark has turned out to be a close campaign.

++Fox News is running Benghazi 24-7 and setting up the issue for impeachment of President Obama. John McCain helpfully pointed out that it is worse than Watergate. Expect Issa to hop on this. But first let's get Obama re-elected.

++If you want a reason to vote for President Obama, listen to his speech in Nashua, New Hampshire yesterday. He hit all the bases. The rally was the biggest in that state's history.

++Mitt Romney actually cut an add where he said that Jeep in Toledo, Ohio would ship jobs to China. This despite Chrysler issuing a statement saying such talk is fantasy. In fact, they are putting an additional 1,000 to work in Michigan.

++So Obama has to manage Hurricane Sandy well and get through the next jobs report.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Nine Days Until Rapture

--Nate Silver "the slim,castrati-sounding,short geek" says that Ohio--no way,no how--is a toss up state. Because of the polling history this cycle, with Obama averaging a 2.5 lead, it would be unprecedented for such a state to go to his challenger. By the end of this election, Nate will be subject to vicious attacks on Right wing radio. Today, the National Review tried to compare him to Dick Morris, who is banking on a Romney landslide.

++Odds of Obama winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote--Nate says 5%.

++7-11--the most definitive poll says it is Obama 59 to 41.

++Des Moines Register endorsed Romney, the first Republican since 1972--an apt parallel of candidates. 

++Votamatic has an even larger Obama lead. Check out the website and the polling leads for Obama in Florida and North Carolina. They assume the election will be clean.

++The Washington Post has Obama still ahead in Virginia by a four point margin--which naturally they say is a slim lead. 

++Karl Rove claims there are about 10 ways Romney can win without Ohio. He didn't spell them out but it is clear that the Romney strategy is to concentrate on Wisconsin and pray they win every other swing state.

++For all you disgruntled liberals, who are grouchy about Obama for this or that, yes, Virginia, there will be a public option--in fact two--for healthcare if he is re-elected. The New York Times reported today.

++Sam Wang is hunkered down at Princeton getting ready for Hurricane Sandy. But he still thinks you are crazy.

Sam Wang Is Going To Take You Away To The Funny Farm

++Now Sam Wang is trying to make it easier for you to understand. Now he prints the probability with the Random Drift Model--88%--and the Bayesian Prediction--96%. He claims these will eventually merge as we come nearer Election Day. And the winner is not Bishop Willard.

++Iowa Electronic Markets out of the University of Iowa has it 66% chance Obama will win popular vote. Betters are saying that will be 53.9%, which seems larger than I believe. I would put it at 51.5%. But Iowa has called it pretty much on the money the last several elections.

++There is nothing we can do now about electronic voting machines and more sophisticated ways of stealing elections. Nor can we do anything about the hurricane and whether it will have any impact on the election turnout.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Sam Wang Wants Us To Get a Life

++With Hurricane Sandy coming up the East Coast or Obama's "Katrina" according to Fox News,Sam Wang remains bemused by our checking in all day long. It is still 297 and Romney 241 with a meta-margin of Obama at +1.96. I would feel more comfortable at Obama 303.

++Nate Silver is on Bill Maher tonight. I expect him soon to be the target of the Salvadoran death squads who funded Romney in the early days of Bain. Conservative magazines have begun a campaign to discredit "Poblano", his nom de guerre. I guess it is because he uses real numbers and runs thousands of simulations for his projections. Obama at 295.4 and Romney at 242.6, a 74.4% probability of Obama winning, 50.3% of the vote. Again get me to 303 and I will breath easier.

++Rand looks wonderful tonight at 51-44 Obama. 

++I have a raft of polls that came out today on swing states. All showed Obama having some sort of lead. Only Purple Strategies had a Virginia poll that was tied 47-47.

++President Obama has raised over $1billion for this campaign but it still is slightly under his challenger and its various SuperPacs. So Get Out The Vote and Vote Early.

++CNN released his Ohio poll tonight and Wolf Blitzer was a pains to explain the whole idea of the margin of error. It was Obama 50 to Romney 46. TPM had an article this afternoon that explained that person-to-person polls revealed a larger Obama lead in Ohio than robo-polls.

++Georgia is reporting that African-Americans are voting at greater levels than at any time in history. Even though Obama is not competitive there, it is a nice bit  of news.

++President Obama is giving interviews with a host of Swing State papers and appeared on MTV for a pitch to the young voters. His voice is getting hoarse. 

++John Sununu keeps on stepping in it. What you don't want if your are the Romney campaign is to remind everyone that Colin Powell endorsed your rival. His statement that Powell did this because Barack is black only kept the endorsement in the new cycle.

++Willard Romney has decided he will not take any more questions from the press. As Doug Brooks says, he is going "Large" and promising "Big Change". However, his economic speech in Iowa went flat because all it contained were attacks on Barack Obama. Romney was disappointed in the 2% growth in GDP, only the best in the industrialized world. His own record in Massachusetts showed he never got near 2% growth in any one year, let alone quarter.

++The Motley Fool decided to rank the Presidents for the last 100 years in terms of who was best for corporate profits. Number 1 was Barack Obama followed by Warren Harding. Way down the list were George W.Bush and Ronald Reagan.

++A Pew poll showed the Americans preferred President Obama handing every foreign affairs issue but one. Incredibly,Americans gave a slight edge to Romney on the issue of China. I guess it is because he outsourced so many jobs there that he knows the country.

++How will the hurricane affect the election. Who knows. David Axelrod said today that the election is now stabilized and the Obama campaign don't expect any major surprises. That was before the full-scale of the hurricane was announced.

++Martin Bashir got best television bit today by donning goggles to see through Paul Ryan's ad, which was incredible on the Romney-Ryan tax plan.

Sam Wang Is Tired of You

Sam Wang wrote this morning that dealing with the issue of Mittmentum is like shooting  fish in a barrel. No there isn't such a thing even if Joe Scarborough says so. For Wang,Obama is at 90% probability and probably will go higher as we inch to the finish line. Today, it is 299EVs Obama to 237Evs Romney with a meta-margin of 1.72. 

Nate Silver has to tolerate you because of working for the New York Times. Nate has it 294.1 to 243.9 for Obama,73% probability of win, and 50.2% popular.

Intratrade got rid of the Romney investor and is at 62.9%.

Rand Tracking is at 50.56 to 44.64 Obama. 

Romney had to cancel yesterday two events out of Ohio because his campaign has found there are in a deeper hole than previously thought. So fresh with Meatloaf's endorsement, Romney said that Chrysler was going to ship its Jeep operations that affect Ohio to China. Chrysler shot back that they had no such intentions.

Politico talked with the Obama campaign who said they had double-digit leads among women in the Swing states like Ohio and that this held to all swing states and they remained confident.

Romney and Ryan will be spending some of this weekend raising funds. Their Boston headquarters told investors to pony up because they are behind 2-3 points in swing states and need the loot for their final ad blitz. Over 30% of the election ads will be aired in the next ten days. Pity all those in a swing state. I have already received ten calls a night for the last three days from polling firms and political campaigns.

Scott Rasmussen talked today about Obama winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote to Romney. 

Nice Obama "Forward" theme song by it.

Hillary Clinton will stay on as Secretary of State a little while after the election and into the second term.

Consumer sentiment is at its highest in five years. Gallup reports more people think they are better off than 5 years ago. The GDP unexpectedly rose 2.2%, higher than expectations. All we fear before the election is the next jobs report next Friday. 

Remember--by next Thursday night you should know who will be the next President of the United States. Vote and Vote early.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Just to Drive You Crazy

++Dick Morris in his lunch time talks says that Romney won all the debates, has the momentum,people are beginning to see Romney as the next Reagan and he will win with over 401 electoral votes, will take Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

++General Colin Powell endorsed President Obama today and the White House didn't know beforehand. Senator McCain blasted Powell for putting another dark mark on his legacy--the first, when he endorsed President Obama over McCain.

++President Obama said that his trouble with Donald Trump goes back to the days when both of them grew up in Kenya and the Donald wasn't a good soccer player.

++The National Journal says that young voters are so turned off by Washington they are not voting this year and could jeopardize Obama's re-election. The information from the numbers coming from the Obama campaign seem to counter this. Add this story that no whites are going to vote for the President and that blacks are going to stay home because of the President stance on same-sex marriage.

++AS for same sex marriage, President Obama has come out for the referenda in Maine, Maryland and Washington state this year.

Obama's Magical Mystery Tour-Part A

++The Tonight Show in LA, late night rally in Las Vegas, early morning rally in Tampa, afternoon rally in Richmond,stop-off to Chicago to vote, and late night rally in Cleveland. For those who wondered how many were in Richmond, it was 15,000, although reported by the Richmond Dispatch as several hundred.

++Willard spent the day in Ohio ending in Defiance. While there he admitted he was "a little behind" Obama.

++Democrats are anxious about this election for good reason. Obama's fate is tied to Republican governors and secretary of states who must honor the election law but have a habit of breaking them. The media for the last two days have willfully forgotten the last debate and are now trumpeted Romney. The Washington Post endorsed Obama today but spent the afternoon with its ABC/POST poll emphasizing that Romney is at 50% of likely voters because of the wide gap among white voters. CNN also has jumped on the wagon saying that Obama must win at least 40% of whites or he will be a single-term president. This has set up a frantic effort by the Romney campaign to raise more money. They are dispatching Paul Ryan to Alabama to pick up some more loot and Sheldon Adelson has dumped a load on the Allen campaign for a Get out the Vote effort.

++Before we all go crazy, let's look at the Big Picture.
      **Drew Linzer of Votamatic and Emory University has run his computers and predicts President Obama with 332 EV and Romney 206EVs.
     **Sam Wang at Princeton Consortium has President Obama at 291 EV and Romney at 247EV with a meta-margin of 1.50. Sam says there is a 25% chance that the popular vote will differ from electoral.
     **Nate Silver has it 290.8 EV and Romney 247.2, with Obama 71% chance of winning and with 50.2% of the popular vote.
     **DeSart and Holbrooke predict Obama 281 EV and Romney 257 with Obama having a 87% chance of winning. Obama 51.51% of the popular vote and Romney with 48.49%. They project Romney will win Virginia, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina.

Obama's Magical Mystery Tour

++The blog ate my post so I will not try again.

++The Big Picture as of tonight:
**Rand: Obama 50% to 45% Romney.
**Nate Silver: Obama 290.8 to Romney 247.2. 71% chance of winning for Obama. 50.2% of the popular vote.
**Sam Wang: Obama 291 to Romney 247 with a meta-margin of 1.50. Only 25% chance that popular vote will differ from electoral.
**DeSart-Holbrooke: Obama 281 to Romney 257, Obama 51.51% and Romney 48.49% popular vote. 87% chance of winning.
**Drew Linzer of Votamatic : Obama 332 EV and Romney 206.

++State polls:
Colorado: PPP: Obama 51 to 47
                Grove: Obama 46 to 43
                Project New America: Obama 46 to 43
                NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist: 48 to 48

Virginia: PPP: Obama 51 to Romney 46
              Fox: Romney 47 to Obama 45
              Rasmussen: Romney 50 to Obama 48.

Florida: Grove: Obama 47 to Romney 45
             Project New America: Obama 47 to 45

Nevada: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50 to 47.

Wisconsin: Obama 51 to Romney 45.

North Carolina: PPP Obama 48-Romney 48.

My advice to President Obama win it with a backup to Ohio. An Ohio newspaper printed today that it could take upwards of two weeks after election day to count the absentee ballots. Too much time for mischief.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Tin Soldiers and Nixon's Coming--2012

++National memo says that Ohio is pretty much put away this election cycle, although more GOTV is fine.Obama banked the early voting taking about 60%. Political operatives say to watch for Romney's 269 strategy to emerge by the end of the week. He will not overtly abandon states but will focus on those to bring him to 269. Part of this strategy might be the very strange ad buy by Karl Rove for Maine's single divided EV.

++John Ralston was asked why Romney doesn't throw in the towel on Nevada. He says Romney's internal polling shows him 1 point ahead and Obama's internals show him 5-8 points ahead. So while there is a chance Romney is not going to abandon the state.

++Just to give you a sense of Ohio:
     **SUSA Obama 47 to Romney 44
     **Pharos Obama 50 to Romney 45
     **Lake    Obama 46 to Romney 44
     **Time    Obama 49 to Romney 44
     **Rasmussen Obama 48 to Romney 48.

++Paul Ryan's "major policy speech" in Ohio entailed an Ayn Rand defense of helping the poor by abandoning all poverty programs and lamenting contraceptives for poor people. The whole day has been a return to the Republican war on women with screwball statements concerning rape from Pennsylvania through Indiana back to Missouri. 

++TPM had President Obama at his highest point over Romney for the entire campaign. While the Romney people are touting his Mittmentum,Rand has returned to a 49 to 45 spread,UPI to a 49 to 47 race,IBD to 47.3 to 44.3, all Obama. Latin voters are now 74 to 26% Obama. Gallup has seen an improvement by Obama and he is now back ahead among registered voters. More important his approval rate is 53.

++Here in Virginia, Old Dominion has it Obama 50 to Romney 43. Newsmax/Zogby 49 Obama Romney 46. Expect Rasmussen tomorrow.

++Nevada. PPP has Obama at 51 to 47

++New Hampshire Battleground poll Obama 48 to Romney 45; Rasmussen 50 Obama and 48 Romney.

++Mark Halperin has a very decent piece in Time about visiting the Obama Chicago headquarters and finding them still confident about the President's victory saying the EV will be from 280 to early 300s. They explained that the trick of early voting is not to just get your supporters but to pick up the random or atypical voter. They argue that they are picking up people off the polling radar--the young, new African-Americans,Latinos and others. Just example, the early voting in North Carolina indicates that the African-American vote far surpasses 2008. The other element is that newly registered voters cast their ballot 93% of their time but are never considered "likely voters".
As to competing claims by the two campaigns, David Axelrod told Halperin, "We will soon see who is bluffing."

++President Obama held a 20 minute conference call with several thousand undecided voters in the swing states. He also gave a great interview with the Des Moines Register about his program for the second term and added that if he wins it will be because of the Latino vote.

++Romney drew a good crowd in Colorado and previously had a good crowd in Nevada. President Obama hit Iowa and was greeted with a massive crowd, Denver and also he and Joe Biden appeared in Ohio. After the speech in Davenport, Iowa, he appeared in the tent afterwards and spoke directly to a video calling for early voting.

++And Sam Wang is snoozing.

The Donald Bombs

++Donald Trump said that his revelations today would alter the presidential race. This was supposed to be the great October Surprise. Even the Obama campaign told reporters that they should ask the Romney campaign any questions because Willard owns anything Trump says.

++The Daily Mail in the UK speculated that Trump found the divorce papers Michelle allegedly drew up in 2000, which had been alluded to in the Amateur. Others speculated that Trump had found an old roommate from President Obama's college days at Columbia that said Obama dealt cocaine and used it.
Apparently,this guy has been offering his statement for money to the Republican Party in return for cash and offered to be polygraphed for it.

++Joseph Farah, king of the birthers at World Nut Daily, said that Trump would change the whole election with his revelations.

++The tweeting on this great revelations took off with Andy Borowitz saying " Could you not broadcast this while we are eating lunch?" 

++The news that will alter the fate of the Free World forever--The Donald offers $5million to President Obama's favorite charity if the President releases the transcripts of his college grads and his papers. OK, and why does Douglas Farah think this ranks up there?

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Allan Lichtman Laughs

++Ipsos projects Obama 332 EV--Romney 206EV.

++Sam Wang yawns: Obama 290--Romney 248.

++Election Analytics: Obama 293.2--Romney 244.8.

++Nate Silver mumbles: Obama 290.8--Romney 247.2.

++Nickelodeon poll of kids--Obama 65 to Romney 35.

++Charles Cook--Obama 253--Romney 248. Obama has a 88% chance of winning.

++Gallup Approval Rating: 51%.

++David Gergen didn't get the memo: Obama won the debate and has the momentum and his ground game is vastly superior to Romney's, which operatives complain is like a civics class.

The Blowout in Boca

++President Obama has made the pivot to the final stretch with an ad this morning on his plans for the next four years.

++The BBC had President Obama at a 50 approval rating and Romney at 9 among the world.

++By the time I left the laptop, ABC had it 77 to 22 Obama winning the debate;PPP among swing voters saying 53 to 40 Obama won, Fox News Obama 54 to 45.

++CBS said Obama won in Boca by a wider margin than Romney won the first. 1st debate--Romney 46 to Obama 22; and 2nd--53 to 23 Obama. 

++ The spin this morning was that President Obama was rude to Mitt Romney and making fun of him. Of course, if you jettisoned all your foreign policy positions to appear like a peace-loving candidate, you might get ridiculed. 

++Good news is that Bill Kristol and Dick Morris believe Romney won the debate. Kristol actually thought that Romney passed the commander-in-chief test, which he did not.

++By wide margins, President Obama was considered more trustworthy--not just on foreign policy but in character. This was also played out in early editorials, which raised the question about how can we trust Mitt Romney after he has changed all his positions to appear moderate. 

++In the light of day, the optics, the tenor, the substance of the debate was all Obama, who completely dominated the discussion at every level. 

++Some wag tweeted last night--If we are fighting in the desert, why do we have to build up the Navy?

++Nate Silver believes the last debate will not produce a significant bounce for Obama. Maybe because there are so few undecided voters left.

++To give you an idea of how close the popular vote is: CBS: Obama 48 to Romney 46; ABC: Obama 49 to Romney 48;Daily Kos 48 O 48 Romney. The key I think is that PPP found in a poll the night of the debate that Swing State voters were more likely to vote for Obama than Romney by a margin of 51 to 45.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Jack Kennedy Beats Nixon in Debate

++Apologies to old Trick Dick because he had more knowledge of foreign affairs and national security than Bishop Willard. But Willard seemed to match him in flop sweat. Willard retroactively did what President Obama has already done,including save the auto industry. He loves teachers, too. So if you want to save two trillion in defense spending and like what Obama's foreign policy is, just vote Obama. 

++The PPP polls of the swing states show Obama cleaned Romney's clock and naturally there was the ever present gender gap. Pretty much everyone agreed that the Commander in Chief showed up tonight. 

++So by the scorecard, it's Obama two debates and Romney one and Biden won his. 3 out of four. 

++Willard had the great pained expressions of the salesman pleading for the sale at the end. He looked tired, pale and wane as he sweated profusely through the whole debate. What would happen if he had to make a serious decision? By the way, he doesn't know how to balance the budget--he had to by law in Massachusetts,never did at Bain where the strategy was to overload the company with debt, and the Olympics he salvaged with $1 billion in grants from the U.S. Government.

++Meanwhile the President made a shambles of everything from Romney's budget ideas to his lack of military strategy. He was good, very good. 

++Reuters/ Ipsos today had a tied race but projected that Obama would win Florida, Virginia and Ohio. After tonight I could believe it.

++ The last two weeks will see a financial advantage by Romney of over $36 million. Can he buy the election? He certainly couldn't persuade anyone tonight except for Dick Morris, Doug Brooks and Mark Shield, who thought it was a tie. Gergen and others said Obama ran a debate clinic.

++I thought Bob Schaeffer let Romney get away with too many interruptions and responses but when he did shut him down the look on Willard's face was priceless. 

++Glenn Beck got what everyone did--Romney basically agreed with everything Obama has done. Romney's strategy was to try and get everyone focused on the economy and try to pin Obama to it. For those already supporting him, I guess that worked. They felt they could play defense all night long but he lost and he lost big-time.

++Will the last two debates,the vice-presidential debate and the jobs report affect the final results? I'm not sure. I did think Obama missed a couple opportunities but I guess he felt he didn't need to pile on,

Or Winning With Ohio

++First, the most important poll--the official Halloween Mask poll--Obama 52 to Romney 48. The sponsors say the poll hasn't been wrong. I'll take it.

++Meanwhile back in Ohio. Paul Ryan campaigned in Coal country and the Washington Post covers a piece about Defiance, where GM is strong but voters, even knowing the implications of GM going under for their town,are ambivalent about Obama. 

++The Qunnipiac/CBS poll--President Obama 50 to Romney 45. That's down from 53-43 on September 26. Women support President Obama 55 to 40, down from 60 to 35. Romney holds the same % of men as before--51-44. Obama leads with unmarried women by 2 to 1. It is about even with married women. By a margin 60 to 37 Obama cares about the voters' needs. 54-41 believe that Obama will help the middle class. 51% of men believe that Romney cares about their needs.

++Nate Silver in his blog pointed out the fact that if women alone were voting, it would be an Obama landslide and if men alone were voting, it would be a Romney landslide on the order of Reagan versus Carter. Go Women!

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Winning without Ohio

++There is a lot of concern about Tagg Romney owning the electronic voting machines of Ohio,Colorado and Washington State and Oklahoma. Even Forbes magazine has printed an article raising questions about the conflict of interest. Of additional concern is that the same computer firm that tallied the vote in 2004 in Ohio is back on the scene again. The Good news is that Clear Channel, which sponsored the Voter Fraud billboards are taking them down in Ohio. And another Republican electoral commissioner resigned in Ohio because of "stress."

++Notice--The Obama campaign sent out a message today about how they are winning Ohio by every measure--early voting, polls, and registration. This was meant to be reassuring and it was.

++But the funky stuff of elections is surfacing everywhere--Virginia, Florida,Ohio,Wisconsin. The GOP and related groups are outspending Obama by 2 to 1 in the homestretch. 

++So Obama needs a second strike capability as they say in nuclear war. Larry Sabato says that without Ohio,Obama needs Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada. This assumes Obama loses Virginia, which is not all that clear. Throw Virginia in there are Obama still has some wiggle room.

++The 7-11 poll has Obama at 59 to Romney 41. In Ohio, Obama is actually up from before to 58 to 42. Virginia is 58 to 42 and Florida is 56 to 44.

++Undecided Voters: NPR did a story about undecided voters, 60% of whom are women. They are now breaking 75% for Obama versus 25% Romney. In Swing States --Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado--there are about 900,000 undecided voters. According to Paul Begala, a Democratic operative,the people who will decide this election are less than those who went to see the Astros play al season in Houston.

++IDB poll keeps trending Obama at 47.9% versus Romney at 42.2.

++With most pollsters writing off Florida for Obama,the last few days have seen 5 polls with Obama leading anywhere from 1-6 points in the Sunshine State.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Today at the Polls

++I mean the real polls. Voted today in Alexandria, Virginia. The choices for School Board and City Council were the most difficult decisions. Steady flow of voters. Poll watchers all talking about the GOP staffer being nailed for trashing thousands of registrations in a more rural part of Virginia.

++So, my message to women, is vote like your lives depend on it --because they do. Women are 56% of the electorate and this year will make the difference in the national elections. The men are too hopeless. Please liberate us from the authoritarian, patriarchal models of leadership.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Nate Silver's Good Nights

++The poll are driving me nuts. So let's just accept Nate Silver who said today:
      A good night for Romney would be Obama 282 to 256 Romney.
     A good night for Obama would be 303 to 235.

Sam Wang on NPR's Science Friday says he doesn't get out of bed for a 1.0 meta-margin. Now Obama is at 2.28%. Wang said Obama has over a 90% chance of winning. Wang is at 299EVs now and was only off by 1EV in 2008.

So do your part, VOTE. I am going to vote tomorrow and will try and ween myself away from the polls.

Sam Wang Puts Obama Up

++Princeton Consortium has Obama at 299 and Romney at 239. The one toss-up state they have on the map is New Hampshire. Obama has 243 safe EVs. and his meta-margin is up now to 1.96. PPP polled New Hampshire and found it Romney 49 to Obama 48.

++CNN has Florida Romney 49 to Obama 48. But look at registered voters--Obama 50 to Romney 43.

++The race looks like the civil war. The South are going heavily for Romney, while the North, Midwest and West are going for President Obama.

The Obama bounce sort of

++We left Nate Silver with Obama inching up to 291 EVs, a 70.4% chance of winning and at 50.3%. States where Obama has a 90% chance of winning equal 237 votes and those where he is 70% plus equals 281.

++Rasmussen this morning is tied at 48 to 48.

++Strange thing about the Gallup polls is that Obama's approval rating is 50% while he's behind 7 to Willard. 

++Mellman Group on Nevada:51-43. Huge gender gap and Hispanic edge for Obama.

++Ohio--81% of new registrations came from women,people under 30, African-Americans and Latinos. 55% of early voters are female.