Spring Ahead: Romney Romps

++Over 30% of Republicans didn't like their choices in Illinois but they voted for Mitt Romney by a 47% to 35% margin over Rick Santorum. Romney outspent Rick by 7 to 1. 


++Jeb Bush became the latest power hitter to endorse Romney. According to a GOP operative,Jeb "had lost any hope that we'll have anyone better."


++Dick Armey's Freedom Works, a teaparty organization, has dropped its reservations against Romney being the GOP nomination. 


++Romney's aide this morning hit the big time with media coverage. He said that Romney will change his extreme right positions once the primary season is over saying that Romney is like an "Etch-A-Sketch" or as Jon Huntsman said, a "well-lubricated weather vane". Or an empty suit.


++The War on Women is working out real well for the GOP. Virginia's Governor Bob McDonnell's approval rating collapsed from 53% last month to 32% this month. The drop is entirely due to the opposition of women to his ultrasound legislation. A majority of Virginians oppose the legislation.


++More on Obama's demise. The hapless President only raised $45 million in February, above the $29 million the month before. The average donation to his campaign is $59. 97.7% of Obama donors give $250 or less. The campaign so far has 1,552,000 donors and 105,000 this month are first-time givers. But Karl Rove is putting his Super Pac money behind Mitt Romney. Romney's Super Pac has drawn more billionaires than Obama's small Super Pac. The Swiftboaters are contributing $3 million to Romney's campaign. The battle royal heats up between Americans and the super wealthy.


++President Obama enjoys a 70-14 lead over Romney among Hispanics. If this holds up, one blogger did the math and gave Romney all swing states and he could not get to 270. Hispanics provide the key swing votes in electoral vote rich states.


++Purple Strategies has released their March poll on 12 swing states. Unfortunately, they did not give a state-by-state readings. But President Obama has a 48-44 lead in the swing states and 48 to 40 lead among independents. I thought Obama looked a little vulnerable on the Commander in Chief issue, where the voters favored his approach to Israel and Iran by 48 to 45. Obama's favorable was 46, with disapproval at 50. Romney's favorable rating was 29% with a 56% unfavorable rating. 


++Quinnipiac released polls on Virginia and Nevada. President Obama wins both states handily.


++Nicest video today was by a deaf student who attended Obama's rally in Maryland. Obama signed "thank you" to a message from the student. 


++When I have the stomach, I may--not a promise--write about Paul Ryan's assault on decency and his amazing ability time after time to produce budgets that create staggering deficits while providing for nothing for the American people. According to his budget, there would only be 1% left for discretionary spending on domestic programs. 

Mariano Rivera has 24 Scoreless Innings in Spring Training

Also, Romney wins Puerto Rican primary. ZZZ.

A Man For All Seasons--Bayard Rustin at 100

Just a short note to remark that today is Bayard Rustin's 100th Birthday. Some of us who had the privilege of working with Bayard remember him today as being the vanguard of the vanguard.

Few events over the past few years do not reflect Bayard's interest and activism as well as are reminders of his deep legacy. The Uprising in Wisconsin reflects his concerns about the trade union movement and the need for collective bargaining. His old institution, the A. Philip Randolph Institute, is working on combattingVoter ID laws throughout the country just as Bayard agitated for the Voting Rights Act passed under LBJ. Occupy Wall Street and the national protests around the disparity of wealth in this country emphasize Bayard's concerns for income equality. And key to all this has been the selfsame commitment to non-violence as the only appropriate means for real change.

Perhaps the only upbeat news these days has been about gay rights and the sea change in our society's attitudes toward gays and lesbians. For years, Bayard's work and role in the civil rights movement were kept in the shadows because of his homosexuality. Today, he is being justly hailed as a pioneer in these matters and a man who was critical in advancing civil liberties for all.

I will wait to write more when I receive my copy next week of "I Resist",the life of Bayard Rustin through his letters.

His companion and the keeper of his legacy Walter Naegle has developed a series of events celebrating Bayard's 100 years. We have had concerts and art shows here in D.C. There will be celebrations in his hometown of Chester, Pennsylvania. Berkeley, California issued a proclamation celebrating Bayard's 100 years. But, alas, I regret there has been no stamp.

So, Happy Birthday, Bayard.

Running Against The Fantasy Obama

After watching "The Road We've travelled", my mail box as filled with rightwing e-mails denouncing Obama for a flag with his face on it seen in Florida, the desecration of military cemeteries in Libya as confirmation of the folly of supporting the Arab Spring, and a Youtube of how President Obama's birth certificate was forged. None of this could sway anyone but reinforce the rightwing views of our radical, Marxist, Muslim, Kenyan-born President. Sometimes, I respond, "Feel the hate, Luke."

Jonathan Bernstein writing in today's Washington Post warns the Republicans about running against this phantom and believing their own nonsense. Today, Mitt Romney again remarked that President Obama never had a real job--say like bankrupting companies. Bernstein writes that you and your self-enclosed world may buy this but that no one is going to accept the President is inexperienced or that he's never had a "real job", like teaching constitutional law or ,more to my point, organizing communities wasn't a real job. The problem for Republicans is that if they recant on these fantasies they will be drummed out of the party and the Catholic Church or their local Mormon Tabernacle.

Yesterday, the President and the Vice President kicked off their campaign. The President didn't refer to his opponents by name but Vice-President Biden assumed the role of the attack dog. The Vice President was warming up his routine before going on to other "swing states". His was a populist economic message aimed at the middle class and warning voters that if they vote Republican they will "bankrupt the middle class". He wove enough anti-1%er language in the speech to take on Mitt Romney and he reminded Ohio voters that Mitt was for letting Detroit go bankrupt and that even Bain Capital had no money to bail out the auto industry, something Bain said at the time.

The Obama campaign has believed that they will face a battered Romney as the Republican nominee. Romney yesterday admitted the economy was getting better and that the recovery looked like it was going to hold. The more the economy does, the whole rationale for his candidacy starts to evaporate but if voters feel a recovery, they will remember who did the heavy lifting and how obstructed.

So how is Republican enthusiasm for Willard. Gallup today released a poll that GOP enthusiasm for Willard is far below its embrace of McCain in 2008.

Will you enthusiastically support your candidate--47% McCain; 35% Romney

Is Your Vote against Obama--35% McCain; 42% Romney

Will you vote for Obama --6% McCain ; 8% Romney

Stay Home --8% McCain ; 11% Romney

This blog has posted a few polls recently that demonstrate that Obama is getting his mojo back and re-capturing his 2008 coalition. Today, the Allstate(really)/National Journal/Heartland poll has President Obama's approval rating hitting 51% and his numbers among components of his coalition coming back to 2008 numbers. Obama still lags among white independents and white students. Otherwise, everything is about equal or above. 60% of the respondents said that the economy was improving and the majority give credit to measures taken by President Obama.

If you want an excellent Paul Krugman column, today's "Born Killers" is Krugman at his Nobel best explaining how oil prices work and how Republican calls for "Drill,Baby, Drill" will not cut prices or lead to greater employment. He does an excellent comparison of the current boom in South Dakota, which Republicans tout as their model, and the gas boom in Pennsylvania, which shows that in large populated states the oil and gas industry do not create enormous numbers of jobs. It is worth reading as Romney criticizes the President for wanting "alternative energy", while he wants an "alternative President"--yuck, yuck.

Obama's "Coolitude"--The Road We Have Travelled

I watched the 17-minute film the Obama campaign made to kick things off. It was a welcome tonic for a political period of hysteria, insanity and shrillness. Tom Hanks did superb job of narrating the film, making you comfortable without a lot of hype.

It is hard to remember that joyous day in Grant's Park when the Obamas walked out to receive the thunderous ovations for a remarkable election victory. Among those interviewed that night was a tearful Rev. Jesse Jackson, who said, "Barack Obama is like Jackie Robinson." My reaction at that time was an image of a prematurely white-haired Jackie Robinson who had to endure intense and vitriolic racial abuse in his years as a Brooklyn Dodger. Or my best memory of that night was Bishop Desmond Tutu, exclaiming, "You are crazy! Americans are so crazy! You disappoint us and then turn around and surprise us."

The film took us into the big decisions President Obama has had to make and was suitably persuasive that these were, in the immortal words of Jose Biden, "Big F***king Deals". The film was assisted by Bill Clinton chiming in on the auto bailout and the decision to go after Bin Laden. Joe Biden did a good job of setting the situation up--"He was all alone. All by himself." If he failed he would be a one-term President.

I was glad that the film incorporated the idea that President Obama went forward on health care reform, despite his advisers, because of the memory of his mother's sickness with ovarian cancer. It always seemed to be the most salient explanation of why he kept pressing this issue when he faced and still faces intense resistance.

Obviously directed and scripted for a political campaign. That's why you got to see so much about the bailout of the auto industry and what it actually means.

If you add up all the different accomplishments so far, President Obama would still be a great President, even if it were for only one term.

The missing dimension to the story about this film is its use tonight around the country in meetings of Obama supporters and contributors. And the linkage with various social networks. In short, the film was leveraged for maximum political and financial effect to bolster the Obama base.

You can tell the concern this had among Republicans. Karl Rove, the master of stepping on other people's message, wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today expressing concerns about the Obama campaign's "burn-rate" of money, noting that Democrats are concerned about their ability to match Republicans this year and that the film was a waste of precious money. Clever. Karl gets to step on Obama's message and then obscure the fact the story of the day is that the Romney campaign has squandered its money and is now totally dependent on SuperPac funds. It is also true that Obama's fund-raising does not look like it will hit the $1 billion he and his aides predicted the campaign would cost. But then you have to compare it to his rivals, whom he eats for lunch.

Or perhaps Karl Rove was concerned about another aspect of the film. It severely wounds Rove's image of President Obama as Jimmy Carter, an indecisive commander-in-chief. I never thought this would work but the Republicans keep repeating it until it might become true.

My bet--the film will more than make up its cost. Nice job.

Fox News Poll Shows Obama's Imminent Collapse

O.K., I lied.

The Fox News poll measured favorable/unfavorable ratings for the President, his rivals and the two political parties.

President Obama is at 50%, with 47% unfavorable

Mitt Romney is at 39%, with a 49% unfavorable

Democrats are at 48% favorable, with 44% unfavorable.

Republicans are at 39% with a 52% unfavorable.

Is the economy turning around?

Yes, it is! gets 58% and No gets 40%.

Who wins in the Presidential election? President Obama at 46% and Romney at 42%. and the President crushes anyone else.

What is worrisome to me is that like with many polls, Obama's favorables are way ahead of Romney's for example, but the margin of lead is not as correspondingly large. Robert Samuelson wrote about this reveal weeks ago in the Washington Post that while indicators of a President Obama victory are there his leads over Romney--except in the Pew poll--has been marginal or slim. This suggests that people actually sense a fragility in the current economic situation and their decisions are not as finalized as one would believe.

Lunch at The Hacienda

++Arizona is going to introduce--again--its birthed bill on the strength of Chief Arapaho's stunning investigation showing that PDF files emit white halos.

++Arizona employees can be fired for using contraceptives according to a new edict.

++Arizona looks like it is in play for Obama. Gee, what makes you think so?

++In reviewing Pope Benedict's declaration of war on all matters sexual in the United States, it occurred to me that we legalized everything years ago at the Supreme Court level and now for same sex marriages doing so at the state level.

++Opus Dei candidate Rick Santorum was in Puerto Rico lecturing them on learning English before they can become a state. You wonder why the Chicago Tribune editorial today commented on the GOP as white and male and losers. The Tribune made a point of showing how GOP's lack of outreach to Hispanics as the fastest rising voter group has cost them California, which once was a swing state. And look at Arizona and New Mexico.

++Charles Blow picked up on the Pew Poll and elaborated even more. Obama leads Romney in every region of the country. Blow also pointed to the demographic death wish of the GOP. By the time of the general election,enough seniors may die off to give that last cohort to Obama so he can make a clean sweep.

++A note about Nate the Great. Nate Silver yesterday wrote on his blog a post that contradicted my view yesterday that Romney was the second choice of Gingrich voters. Nate claims 57% would go to Santorum and about one quarter would go to Romney. (Note: Nate blew the call on Alabama and Mississippi when he said a Santorum double win was the least probable outcome.)

++About oil prices, while Americans tend to blame oil companies and Middle East tensions rather than Obama, will they give Obama credit for the price decreases? Obama and Prime Minister Cameron agreed to release some of the strategic reserves to lower oil prices. We have yet to learn about what the Department of Justice's speculation unit finds.

++Remember those corny photo-ops with President Obama and veterans and him announcing hiring veterans programs. Never made the headlines. But the jobless rate of veterans is now down to 7.6%, lower than the national rate. This is a full five points below last year's 12.5%. Think these programs had anything to do with them.

++The new jobless claims for the general population are at a four-year low.

++Yes, Pat Robertson did endorse oral sex in a marital relationship. Those naughty leftists are trying to spin it the other way by quoting his remark to those hesitant about engaging in the act, "If you feel it's a sin, then it's a sin." He was just being pastoral in easing his flock's discomfort. Pat also came out for decriminalizing marijuana because it is a waste of money and leads to higher rates of imprisonment of minorities. Amen, Brother.

++Should Newt Gingrich quite the race (speaking of oral sex)? No, there is no compelling reason for him. If he limps along to the convention, he can dream he is the kingmaker. The latest Beltway wisdom (cough) is that Willard can not reach the number of necessary delegates to cinch it beforehand. Of course, the same applies to everyone else.