Saturday, April 30, 2016

Indiana Might Not Matter Anymore

++Sam Wang says that although the median of polls shows Trump with about a 4point lead  in Indiana ,quite frankly it doesn't matter anymore.  Trump is projected by Sam to get at least 100 more delegates than the 1270 needed for the nomination.

++What is interesting is Wang's assessment that Trump has been on a glide path since early March and that the only intangibles in the race have been very local factors. He sees Cruz picking up some more states. But that will not matter, Wang asks the media to stop running stories about a brokered convention. A wonderful fantasy for political junkies but everyday it is less likely not more.

++Basically both Trump and Clinton are in the 95% probable range to win the nominations of their respective parties.

Whither The Electoral College

++Blogger "Sem Dem" at the dailykos does an electoral vote review. He has Hillary Clinton winning 381 electoral votes and rising.

++While Hillary Clinton leads every national poll in a head-to head with Trump,it is the electoral vote that is most impressive. SemDem writes that Hillary will win the popular vote convincingly but will also turn many "Red" States "Blue". 

++It may seem strange to read that battleground states now include Mississippi,Utah and Arizona. Clinton leads in Georgie also.  Kentucky,Arkansas,Texas haven't been polled lately.

++Florida-loving Trump loses that state's Hispanic vote 69%-18%. Remember the ERNC projected after the 2012 election that the GOP needed 40% of the Hispanic vote to win. Nationally,Trump's Hispanic support ranges from 11%-18%. 

++The Democrats are projected to take Florida, California,New York, Pennsylvania,Ohio and Michigan. The Democrats sweep the Northeast,the Midwest,the Pacific Coast,and do well in Nevada,New Mexico,Arizona, Colorado. 

++Josh Marshall reminds us that the GOP has put into place significant voter suppression laws that the courts have approved in Texas, North Carolina,Wisconsin and other states. 

++Caveat Emptor. The GOP will make one last attempt to grab the brass ring on #Benghazi! and Hillary's emails.

Virginia Head Of The KKK Endorses Trump

++"What He Believes In, We Believe In." 

Friday, April 29, 2016

I Missed It--Prince Died on Thursday at the age of 57.

++Prince died in the elevator in his own home  from what was apparently an overdose of opioids.  It had been rumored that he was diagnosed with AIDS six months before.

++This did not make the new in Africa or later in Europe. But the right has weighed in. On how a "believing Jehovah Witness" could have overdosed,I received a lengthy analysis by a right-winger talking about "hot shots" and ways people not on drugs could die. Drudge succinctly posted the real crime--half his estate will go to the government, a call for the ban on death taxes if I ever heard it.

++The New Yorker ran a eulogy to Prince by Taylor Ho Bynum which summarizes the talents of this extraordinary man. My son reminded me that Prince could play every instrument and did so in his first few albums.

++The big mystery of Prince was where is his music. He recorded two songs a day for his entire adult life. The much rumored vault has actually been found and opened. We should enjoy a few decades more of his music. 

++Hail Prince or the artist who used to go by Prince, a brilliant money maker as Prince tried to escape the demands of the music industry. 

++Prince-- Rest in Peace. 

The Times Says The Donald Only Two Wins Away From The Republican Nomination.

++The Donald has 995 delegates, almost 400 more than Cruz. With the undecided from Pennsylvania and Rubio's cache, the Donald is teetering on victory. The Times believes he will win the nomination by the May primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. He won't need California.

++Speaking of which, Nate Silver has done an abrupt change of predictions showing the Donald has over a 60% chance of winning California, Cruz is at 30%.

Back From Africa

++During my African stay,the only news I got was from RT television. It reminded me of how the AP used to cover Mexico. Lots of coverage of nationalist parties in Europe, constant attacks on President Obama, and labor unrest in France and the UK.

++But the week had a string of five primary wins for Donald Trump. Hillary won 4 out of Five with Bernie winning Rhode Island.

++Oh what a week,when the GOP establishment decided on Indiana or bust to stop the Donald. Remember the Indiana GOP has already selected their delegates. 

++Ted Cruz played his Carly Fiorina card to bolster his chances, having been mathematically eliminated from the GOP race. The much vaunted Cruz-Kasich pact went down in flames as Kasich told his supporters they can still vote for him in Indiana. That's not what the Pact called for,

++Being away spared me from the pundits. Mark Halperin said that the Donald could put California in play in the general election.

++Marco Rubio endorsed the Donald--which might mean 185 delegates for Trump. John Boehner said he would vote for Triump over Cruz, who is "Lucifer". 

++I hope the reader realizes how absurd and even scary the United States looks to the rest of true world with the GOP's race getting the most publicity and bucks.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Jackson Gone, Tubman on $20: Hamilton Stays.

It's Closing Time.

++And, hit it, Gordan Lightfoot. I'm Leaving on a jet plane. Don't know when I'll see you again.

++Goodluck in the primaries next week. And they should be the wrap. 

++Off to Africa with Paul Bowles (nah,too dated a reference).


++The founder and majordomo of the Dailykos blogged an editorial that showed Hillary Clinton basically has wrapped the Democratic nomination up. He looks at the forthcoming primaries, which are worth more than New York combined and concludes that Sanders went backward with New York. 

++Kos argues that Sanders' belief he can win the nomination when losing the pledged delegates and the popular vote is delusional. He point out that the next sequence of primaries are "closed", which he thinks is a good thing. He says join the Democratic party, it is free.

++What still bothers me is where will the millennials go. Will they just stay home?

In New York's 16 District, Cruz Loses To Ben Carson. Comes in 4th.


Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Thanks Obama, Dow Jones Over 18,000-- About 11,000 More Than Under W.

538 On New York Reesults

++Nate Silver did the honors of analyzing Trump's Yuuge Victory in New York. Nate says that Trump still needs to win Indiana and California to put him near the top. (The problem with Indiana where he is eating is that the state GOP elected their own slate of delegates before the primary.) Silver sees Trump winning 90 out of New York's 95 delegates and projects similar results for the upcoming primaries. Silver has Trump coming into the convention with less than Wang predicts.

++Harry Enten did the Democratic honors. He says tonight just showed Sanders needs a minor miracle to even come close to Hillary Clinton. Harry says that Sanders has to over perform in the upcoming states, where he is polling underwater by margins higher than 538 projected for his viability. He needs to pick up massive numbers of delegates and that is why the Sanders campaign harps on super delegates. 

++But it is unlikely either party will accept a nominee that hasn't polled the majority of voters and has more delegates than the nearest competitor.

One Result Of New York Primary- Trump Made It Mathematically Impossible For Cruz to Win The Nomination.

Sam Wang Was Dead Right On Trump's Delegates In New York

++As of now Trump got 89 delegates to Kasich's 3. Wang had predicted more than 85 and maybe 90.

++The whole night 538 was writing about whether Trump would suffer "delegate slippage" a term coined by Harry Etten. 

Bernie Sanders Returns To Vermont and Says Will Do Better In Next Primaries.


++I am off observing elections and celebration 40 years of involvement in African affairs. To accommodate for age, no laptops, no cellphones,only notebooks and pens. 

++In Another Country will be off for a week. Undoubtedly, I will have my google problems getting back up when I return. BE PATIENT.

++While away ,keep focus through Sam Wang, Ed Kilgore at New York (where is Andrew Sullivan?), Josh Marshall at Talkingpointsmemo, and ,of course, Nate "The Great" Silver at FiveThirty Eight. In the upcoming primaries, Polls Only Probability will be more accurate. 

++For my airplane reading,I am taking Dark Money by Jane Mayer, The Killing of Osama Bin Laden by Seymour Hersh, and the new magisterial history of the French Resistance published by Harvard University. 

++And ,yes, the cover-up of the Saudi connection on 9/11 will continue to be a story now that President Obama can be faulted for non declassifying the 28 pages. The reason is that the conspiracy nuts like Alex Jones are right--9/11 is connected to Prince Bandar, then the ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States. His extensive ties with the CIA led to investigators being warned off looking too closely at him. Investigators where the 9/11 hijackers lived and even here in Fairfax Country were told Bandar had "diplomatic" immunity. When questioned about his financial support of two hijackers,Bandar invoked his support of the Contras.

++I haven't had time to write about the burning question" Is Donald Trump A Fascist?"  Carl Bernstein explained at length months ago how he was a neo-fascist bringing a new style to the United States. Bernstein cited his authoritarianism, nativism and incitement of violence as indicators. Compared to George Wallace, Bernstein just scoffed "he was just a plain old racist".

++Robert Paxton, author of the Anatomy of Fascism, reminded Americans , "seas an affair of the gut, not brains.' He did say that Mussolini was better read than Trump. Paxton actually withheld final judgment on Trump citing Umberto Eco's observation that fascism "was a beehive of contradictions". 

++If Hillary Clinton wrapped herself in the flag of Israel in New York, Joe Biden, whose record of support in the Senate for Israel was sterling, spoke to 9th Street and said Israel has made disastrous decisions which may threaten their survival. Biden said that abandoning a two-state solution only leads to a one state solution where Arabs outnumber Jews. Biden said the Obama Administration was extending the military and security pact with Israel but warned Tel Aviv about the continuous negative effect the expansion of settlements has on world public opinion.

Sam Wand Has Trump Heading to 1237 Delegates, Just A Few Short Of the Title. Cruz and Kasich Are Done.

Hillary Clinton Near 1,500 Delegates After Tonight

++New week brings Maryland and Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton is slated to win these. Then we have to wait until June for the finale in California.

++After tonight's win,I can't see how Sanders has a path to the nomination. Observers have said this weeks ago--Sam Wang, and Ed Kilgore among others.

++Paul Manafort got it right about Cruz having a bad April. He doesn't look ike he's going anyway soon. 

Hillary Clinton Crushes Bernie Sanders And Wins New York 60-40.

Fivethirtyeight on New York

++If you want a fascinating look at the New York Republican delegate fight,Five ThirtyEight has the whole team parsing the various deviations in various boroughs. Interesting Kasich still leads Trump in Manhattan.

++The rule for the delegates are rather arcane and take some interpretation to ascertain the subtle plays Kasich might use. Make no mistake: The Donald has crushed Kasich and Cruz combined. But the ultimate end result is in the details.

++Cruz is the predictable big flop--barely polling at 14% and may go done further.

++You will hear the mantra of Trumpentum the next two weeks.

TRUMP WINS NEW YORK YUUGELY--At this Point With Over 60%.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Sam Wang Is Still Not Amused

++Wang at Princeton Elections Consortium does a wonderful job in an analytical piece explaining that Trump is likely to get 1265 delegates. He explains that Trump has a 64% of getting 1237 delegates or more. Tomorrow Trump looks like he will get 86 or more of New York's 95 delegates.


++Actually back from the local 7-11. The Pakistani staff didn't know anything about this.

Everybody Acts Their Brains Are Fried

++Maybe it's just me but the political blogs act like we are under a heat wave and everyone has lost their senses.

++Yes, Trump shock up his campaign . No it's not going to show immediately. He gave wider authority to Paul Manafort and hired Scott Walker's campaign manager. The big squeal is that the older hands will be push to lesser role. What do you expect when Trump has assumed front-runner role without an organization. Things had to change. 

++Nate Silver has changed his California prediction and gives Trump a 55% chance of winning, Cruz is a close second. 

++Since everyone is in the Trash Trump department now, don't be surprised he he goes on a run starting tomorrow night. First New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware and possibly Rhode Island.  I don't see him getting less than 1,100 delegates and polls show that Republicans believe the person with the most popular votes--Trump--and secondly the majority of delegates should win the nomination.

++As if buying into the anti-Trump drumbeat, Mitch McConnell is "optimistic" that the GOP will have a contested convention. What's to be optimistic about?  The choices are loathsome.

++Democrats are picking up new candidates for House seats. But I have noticed that the good fortune anticipated by Cook and Larry Sabato has not translated into bucks and certainly not new messaging.

++Oh, and the GOP is close to having a replacement to Obamacare. The destruction of American goes along even though the Republican Party is collapsing.President Obama's immigration policies are under the gun at SCOTUS in a case brought by 26 Republican Senators. With an 8 person court,it is a momentous decision but I can't take it seriously without a full court.

++President Obama threatened to veto the 9-11 bill because government sponsors of terrorism can be held legally responsible for those acts. Saudi Arabia has threatened to sell about $1 trillion in assets if the bill goes through. The only paper which is covering this is the New York Post on a daily basis. The emails I get are from conservatives who now want the 26 pages of the 9-11 report declassified. Forget about George W. Bush, Obama is covering up. And, quite frankly,he is. He is supposed to leave for Saudi Arabia next week.

++Hillary now is being called a moderate Republican--something I used to call President Obama. She is also a corporatist. Ok,but that seems to be everybody's crime.
But Hillary does have to out this away soon.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Ted Cruz Told Curtis Silwa he would not ban dildos or sex toys if he is president.

++Cruz said the question was ridiculous and it was stimulated by Mother Jones' piece of Cruz' antics in Texas. Cruz said that what people do in private is not the business of government. Hey, what about your support for the anti-LGBT laws? Hey, Ted?

GOP Frolics

++In the court on St.Croix, the delegates of the U.S. Virgin Islands have filed suit against the GOP party chairmen because he will not certify the winners of its caucus. The chairman claims this is a frivolous lawsuit and that only the GOP has the right to determine its delegates.

++Donald Trump has thrown in the towel on the Wyoming caucus as Ted Cruz has outmaneuvered him.

++The Indiana GOP has chosen its delegates even though the primary isn't until next month.

++Members of the RNC has now debating massive changes in the rule book, including the use of Roberts' Rules of Order. The new proposals would in effect provide more powers to individual delegates and make it harder for state delegations to maintain control of their groups. It is not clear whether this is paving the way to a brokered convention.

++An RNC official said that there would be riots if Trump wins and if Trump loses. Sarah Palin, a Trump surrogate, agreed that there would be riots if Trump or Cruz were not nominated. The Donald himself told Chris Cuomo that he expected "very bad things to happen at the convention" and did not rule out the possibility of riots.

Bernie Sanders At The Vatican

++Bernie Sanders sat next to Bolivian leader Evo Morales as he spoke about the papal encyclicals that criticized the modern economic systems. 

++Sanders trip to the Vatican was widely criticized as he was taking time off from campaigning in New York, which is a crucial primary battle for him. Anonymous Vatican officials also criticized his invitation. People Francis, who did not meet him, sent him greetings.

++It is well worth listening to his 18 minute speech because he synthesized his views on the modern global economy and stressed The Common Good. Sanders quoted Pope Francis' warning that we are now seeing "the globalization of indifference" and the lack of mercy and empathy. 

++Sanders summarized his main criticism of our own political economy but did emphasized the highest price was being paid by the developing world. Sanders also agreed with Pope Francis that we do not lack the wealth or the technological know-how to solve the problems afflicting the world. Rather we clacked the moral understanding of the present situation.

++His speech was an extended analysis of the global economic situation heavily laced with quotations from the encyclicals including Pope Francis' latest "In Praise of Our Home". I welcome Sanders eschewing his campaign rhetoric which has become monotonous of late. 

++Bravo, Bernie.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Endorses Hillary Clinton.

Ted CRUZ Falls To Fourth In A Three Man Race in New York.

Senator Gillibrand,A Clinton Supporter,Said Hillary Will Release The Transcripts Of Her Speeches.

Today's Newsweek: How Jerry Brown Saved California. Run Jerry, Run.

Ted Cruz And Dildos

++ I know a natural connection. 

++When he was Solicitor General of Texas, Ted Cruz sought to ban the sale and possession of sex toys. This also applied to out of state purchases. 

++Cruz argued that the government had an interest in " discouraging …autonomous sex." Cruz' Princeton roommate claims Ted must have had a change of mind from his college says when he masturbated all the time.

++Cruz went so far as arguing that the state of Texas should ban sex toys. " There is no substantive -due-process right to stimulate one's genitals for non-medical purposes unrelated to procreation or outside of an interpersonal relationship."

++The Texas Appeals Court voted the law down but Cruz wanted it to proceed to the Supreme Court. Even the Texas government thought this was too much.

Nate Silver's New York Picks

++Silver has Trump at 99% probability of a win and Hillary also at 99%.


++The beltway pundits said Donald's bad few weeks meant he was doomed, even with the prospect of a big New York primary win. But Josh Marshall has noted Trump's poll numbers have gone up and Ted Cruz had the Dead Cruz Bounce. Cruz is falling at a fast rate. Marshall doesn't speculate on whether Trump will go to the convention with the necessary number of delegates but don't rule it out.

Slowly I Turn, Step by Step……#BENGHAZI!

++Dana Millbank in the Washington Post writes that Trey Gowdy and his Benghazi Committee is preparing the final report of his committee now and should release it before the Congress adjourns for the party conventions. 

++The Republicans ,who are the majority on the Committee, have stopped giving Democrats transcripts of the interviews,ostensibly to minimize leaks. After Hillary Clinton testified for 11 hours straight on television, true committee went into conducting private interviews.

++Plagued by the perception that this is a political exercise by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton, the mid-July release only compounds that. 

++Elijah Cummings says that the report will just be a rehash of Republican claims. Trey Gowdy promises exceptional findings. 

++The latter claim is based on a former diplomat who served in Libya now working for a California congressman. Mr. Hicks has testified in private to the committee.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Debate 4

++Twitter: Who Won The Debate? Clinton 55%, Sanders 45%.

++Among New York Jewish Voters: Clinton 68%, Sanders 32%.

++The male commentators have criticized Hillary's voice throughout the debate. I thought she modulated it well and softened it as the audience boo'd so that she could answer.

++John Dingell tweeted that "As an old man who yells alot I'm tired of an old man who yells alot.'

++David Axelrod tweeted that Obama wanted cap and trade but the Senate blocked him and Sanders was there.

++Axelrod dinged Hillary thinking the appropriate answer to Libya was that she has learned lessons. I disagree I think he strong defense of the actions in Libya indicate more commander-in-chiefness.

++Hillary's Roe V. Wade intervention was prompted by her criticism of moderators in democratic debates never asking questions on abortion, while the Republicans always talk about it.

++Nate Silver's modified poll has Hillary 17 points in the lead in New York.

++And in a separate reality,the New York Post just Endorsed Donald Trump on its front page.

The Five Thirty Eight Panel

++They said, "Clinton spoke to New York, Sanders spoke to the Left."

++Hillary Clinton got marks for raising the abortion issue and defending Planned Parenthood.

++They also said that Clinton's response on Israel will help her as 16% of the New York Democratic voters are Jewish. Sanders' response was too muddled to help.

++Senate ethics laws prohibit Bernie Sanders from giving paid speeches. So his boast about not giving them is just saying he observes the law.

++538 didn't see anything that would change the outcome in the New York Primary. They dispute Sanders' claim that now primaries will favor him against the front-loading of southern primaries. They say Clinton has the lead in the primarily Northeastern states.

++Both candidates strongly supported Social Security. It is sad one has to do that now but it is under attack. Sanders did his trick of trying to get Clinton to admit to raising the cap on income to make Social Security solvent. Her answer was that if that's the way we can do it, sure but there are other suggestions.

++Dailykos thought both of their closing statements were weak.

Reuters/Ipsos Poll (National) Sanders 47% to Clinton 42%; (Among Democrats) Sanders 49% to Clinton 48%.

Debate II

++Neither of the surrogates after the debate thought it changed the nature of the race. Josh Marshall said he had not heard two people yelling at each other for such an extended period of time--and he remind us both are over 65 years old. 

++Marshall didn't get what Sanders' end game was about the Palestinians, neither did I.  Marshall felt the question about whether Sanders was a Democrat was helpful. I thought it was and I am not a Democrat. I think the whole optics of Sanders as independent and then running as a Democrat tilts the field in favor of Hillary. 

++The headlines are all on Libya, speech fees,Sanders accusing Clinton of receiving money from the oil companies and Sanders flubbing his bank programs.

++One worrisome issue is that neither did or said anything to expand their bases. For Clinton ,it is a big problem with young people. There was nothing she said that was persuasive for young people. I just don't think she should take them for granted. They have a choice--stay home.

++It is true this debate showed there was no love lost between them. This is more a problem for Clinton because her campaign overreacts to some of Sanders' criticisms of her,making her look reactive and shifty. Tonight she wasn't any of those things.

The Battle In Brooklyn

++My connection just terminated after an hour and a half of the debate. I thought Bernie Sanders' attempts at gotchas failed miserably. What might seem evasive by Hillary Clinton turned out to be a superb technique of redirecting the question to the heart of the issue. On the other hand,Clinton clobbered Sanders on the gun issue and broadened it to go after more items in Sanders' history. I think she did this successfully. 

++Some of Sanders' points only resonate with those who seek purity. Hillary Clinton gave a detailed and persuasive defense of her actions on climate change and the reason the United States encouraged tracking abroad. Her defense that natural gas was seen as the natural bridge from coal to alternatives when compared to country's depending on coal may be unsatisfactory but true. She also gave a ringing endorsement of President obama';s efforts and raised the Paris Accords, as a remarkable achievement, which Sanders pooh-poohs as merely paper.

++I find Bernie Sanders shrill--to put a derogative tone to his rhetoric--while observers remarked that Hillary was defensive about Libya. I didn't think she was defensive. She reminded people we acted in support of our European allies who wanted Qaddafhi gone. That little detail doesn't seep into the discussion enough. 

++Clinton reiterated her hawkish Syrian policy but I don't think this was a detriment to the broader politics audience. 

++Wolf Blitzer had to get in Israel. Here Clinton got in her role as brokering the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas using the Egyptian president and reminded the audience that if Arafat had lived up to the agreements signed with her husband there would have been a Palestinian state for over 15 years. 

++CNN was quick to say that Sanders criticized Israel. This was misreporting. He objected to the disproportional response of the Israelis to the rocket attacks from Gaza. He was quick to say that Israel had every right to defend itself.

++I think Clinton turned lemons into lemonade when talking about the Crime Bill under Bill Clinton. She pointed out that it contained the Violence Against Women Act which went a long way to curbing the physical abuse of women and actually had educational components that mitigated its awful effect. Here she then launched into reminding voters that a year ago she outlined a policy to deal with the repercussions of this bill and also said that her husband has apologized to the African-American community for its effect.

++Bernie Sanders went into his institutional racism rift but sounded lame.

++I thought Hillary Clinton artfully avoided the "disclose your speeches" demand and turned it against Sanders by talking about his failure to release his taxes.

++If you listened to the debate without thinking of a contest, you would have to walk away being impressed by the breadth of Hillary Clinton's policy chops. Bernie Sanders even fumbled on questions about the Daily News interview about breaking up the banks. Hillary's rebuttal that it was not just the banks who failed but insurance companies,mortgage companies and other institutions scored some points.

++Clinton is beginning to score in this campaign by pointing out squirrelly items in Sanders' voting record. I guess this was stimulated by his constant remanding the audience she voted for the Iraq War. But he pulled some boners too like granting gun-manufacturers immunity from law suits. 

++Clinton, in my book, is better prepared for the general election. She's better at wrapping current fights into her presentations--such as why Merrick Garland needs to be approved by the Senate to support President Obama's Power policy. She also reminds Sanders that the GOP is opposed to everything they are talking about. 

++I thought the biggest mistake was Sanders attack on Clinton over the minimum wage. Sanders said that Clinton was against the $15 minimum wage--what she said was that let's move to $12 at a federal level and where local governments can go higher then let them do it.  This sounds cagey but she explained that was the Democratic Senate position because of the obstruction of the Republicans. I thought she neutered Sanders on this issue because she had the facts down.

++And remember the GOP argument is that this would be a job killer. And Hillary is in a better condition to refute this.

++I thought Sanders sounded tired,repeating his campaign slogans. They sounded old and very retro. Clinton was more on her toes and has added a few new physical moves to her presentation. She can silence negative reactions from the audience with a few hand gestures and just politely say "Well, these are the facts." And they are.


++Wang was referring to the movements in the polls and analyzes how polls go up after a primary win then dissipate. He gives Ted Cruz less than 5% chance of winning the nomination on a first ballot.

Kobe Bryant Scores 60 Last Night. Posted About The Game When It Was Still going.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Kobe Bryant Retires After 20 Years With The Same Team-The Lakers. Scores Over 40.


++Occupy Wall Street has endorsed Bernie Sanders and appeared with him at a New York City rally yesterday.

++AS I've written, the Sanders campaign has a number of organizers from Occupy in its structure and also Obama '08 activists. So the endorsement was no surprise. It was good to see them again.

++But it is no surpass that Nate Silver wrote yesterday that through all the noise something catastrophic would happen to deprive Hillary Clinton the Democratic nomination.


++I watched MSNBC while at the Dentist's office this morning. For some reason Steve Kornacki talked up Ted Cruz as a real challenger to Donald Trump. The polls show the Donald will win New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut. Rafael Cruz sits in third place in all these contests. And Manafort himself said that April is going to be a cruel month for Cruz.

++The story in the broadcast media was all about Colorado and how GOP spokespeople said that Trump didn't understand the rules and has insulted the entire Colorado party. The Cruz surrogate was Senator Labrador of Idaho who defended Colorado. And Kornacki let Labrador get away with this. The Colorado caucus basically got rid of the voters and allowed the party leaders to declare Cruz won all the delegates, even though there is no evidence that a vote existed. 

++Labrador's argument was that Cruz can win the swing states. Here Kornacki found his spine to say that Trump won Virginia, Florida and Ohio and that polls show that Cruz can not win even all Romney's states.

++To back up the anti-Trump sentiment came Ariana Huffington on the Diane Riehm show to says that Trump suffered from sleep deprivation and has lost his momentum to Cruz. 

++Roger Stone showed up on Alex Jones' Infowars to say that California was the Big Enchilada and that Cruz' Superpacs are flooding the airwaves before the big primary. He said this year California would be as important as in 1964 when it went for Goldwater,the last Republican outsider.

++It has been days here in Washington of the anti-Trump bandwagon. 

++What's interesting is that when Trump says something truthful the whole RNC apparatus attacks him as incompetent and unable to understand the rules. But the media doesn't report that he is getting robbed of delegates by Cruz, who blames him as a Don Carleone. Cruz went on an extended rant about Trump as a mobbed up candidate.

++The latest rumor is that Cruz has been poaching Rubio's delegates. Apparently even suggesting that Rubio has endorsed him. Untrue, Rubio's delegates are still committed to him the first round.

++A spokesperson for the RNC made a mistake today by saying that Trump could win with 1,100 delegates not the 1270 quoted.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Former Florida Senator Bob Graham Receives Call From the White House.

++After appearing on "60 Minutes", Bob Graham received a call from the White House saying that President Obama had ordered a review of the declassification process of the 28 pages in the 9-11 Report. When he asked how long this would be,the response was "one to two months". It is clear that only by being covered by the mainstream media mattered to the White House. Graham has been telling this story on Real News and Democracy Now for sometime. 

Paul Ryan To Rule Out Presidential Nomination--Again!

Monday, April 11, 2016

Donald Suggests VP Picks

++We knew Trump already said he would have a politician for vice president. Today he said he was considering Marco Rubio, John Kasich or Scott Walker. I would guess Kasich because both men cooperated in Michigan to shut down Cruz.

NBC/Marist Poll-New York

++Trump 54%, Kasich 21%, Cruz 18%.

++Clinton 55%, Sanders 41%.

60 Minutes Features Former Senator Graham on the 9/11 Report's 28 Pages.

++ Steve Kroft picked up the story that has circulated for the last several years on alternative media--Former Florida Senator Graham's insistence that the censored 28 pages of the 9-11 Report's section on the Saudi involvement be declassified.

++Graham asserted that we would find out that not only Saudi wealthy elites and charities bankrolled 9-11, so did the Saudi government. 

++The segment brought in others on the commission who say these findings are ver damaging and that it was understandable that because "of the closeness of the Saudi royal family to the Bushes that it would have been classified at the time." 

++President Obama has twice refused to declassify the segment and has ordered another review. However,the issue now comes out when President Obama is to travel to Saudi Arabia in nine days.

++After the segment, Nancy Pelosi publicly called for the declassification of the segment.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Sam Wang Has A Message For You.

++You just have to use the word "momentum" and you will waken Sam Wang from his slumbers to prove to you you are wrong. 

++In today's post at Princeton Elections Consortium, Sam Wang says that Trump basically hit his polls and Cruz over performs. But at the end of the day,despite "Lyin' Ted"s delegate hijinx,the Donald will either get 1,356 delegates acceding to his META rating or 1,280 delegates if Cruz continues to over perform.

++So the "Mistake by the Lake" as the GOP convention is called, may not be the Days of Rage Roger Stone promised but a first round blow out by the Donald. If the Donald needs about 100 delegates, he just has to promise Kasich the vice presidency.

++The real fight at the GOP Convention is on the "Right to Life" amendments and how the GOP deals with gay marriage. There is a strong move afoot to declare that the 14th amendment has nothing to do with the LGBT community or women. The anti-abortion platform is going for a total ban, including for rape and incest. This is the big fight for the Religious Right. Unfortunately,it usually is a payoff for keeping the Religious Right in the Party.


++Hillary Clinton 56%, Sanders 38%. 


++ TRUMP 54%, KASICH 22%, CRUZ 15%.


Saturday, April 9, 2016


++Bernie Sanders is set to win the Wyoming caucus. That only leaves one caucus left--North Dakota.

++Where does that leave him? David Wasserman at 538 writes today that Sanders is less competitive than he appears.

++Hillary Clinton has a 469 to 31 lead in superdelegates. Sanders has 46% of the pledged delegates but only 42% of the vote. He needs 56% of the remaining delegates and 60% of the popular vote to match Hillary Clinton.

++So the theme is Sanders has momentum but that leaves him far in the hole despite today's victory.


Friday, April 8, 2016

The Crumbling Trump Campaign

++Reuters has a poll out today that shows Trump leads nationally among Republicans 42%,Cruz 32%, and Kasich 20%.

++Hillary Clinton is at 53% to Sanders 43%.

++At 538, Nate Silver says that Trump's winning number is up to 40%--that's the number he has to reach in the remaining primaries whereas before he could win in the low 30s.  Silver thinks this will be problematic for the Donald. Silver says that the poll in any given state has been consistent with the Donald's final result. 

++But the New York polls have Trump at 53% some 20 its above Kasich and Cruz is a distant third. A similar poll from Maryland has Trump leading in the mid-40s.

++A strange item at 538 is the probability for the California Republican primary. In the Polls only category Trump has an overwhelming probability;but with polls plus Cruz wins the primary with a distinct advantage. Is Nate playing us with a horse race analogy since California is supposed to out Donald over the top?

++Lindsey Graham headed to New York this morning to warn New York Republicans against Trump and make the argument that Cruz was the only choice, even though he is more ideological compatible to Kasich. Graham thinks that a Trump nomination would destroy the Republican Party. When the moderator pointed out that Cruz would also lose to the Democrats,Graham said that the Party this year was for an outsider and he had to respect the outsiders. 

++He said if someone other than the remaining candidates got the nomination,the party would explode. He said the GOP would be disenfranchising millions of primary voters. (Although the GOP does that in national elections.)

++Graham and people like Scott Walker are saying the Cruz will be the nominee on the second ballot. Graham hopes he will pick John Kasich as a Vice President.

++Graham thought Paul Ryan should have run but warned against the establishment's new embrace of Ryan as the White Knight to come in and save the party.

++Trump has won 19 primaries and is soon to add the 20th to the list; Cruz has 8 primaries or caucuses. 

++The media has all turned against Trump since Wisconsin and Graham credits the #NoTrump movement for this. Why do I feel the ghost of former Marco Rubio supporters behind all this. 

++Paul Krugman in his Times column warns everyone about Cruz' economics. He says with Trump we don't know. Protectionist policies do not necessarily cost jobs but Cruz trying to bring back the gold standard will. Krugman points out that Cruz is for elimination the withholding tax and therefore Social Security and Medicare payments.  The Cruz agenda is more radical right than any in this or the 20th century. We know his Supreme Court picks.

The Guardian Said Obama Passed The Panama Papers Test; Cameron Did Not.

++The Guardian wrote an editorial that the Panama Papers were pressuring leaders around the world,causing massive censorship in China and a tantrum by Putin. The Icelandic Prime Minister quit,paving the way for The Pirate Party to come to power and Macri in Argentina is now under pressure to quit. David Cameron in the UK had to explain how he benefited from his father's offshore accounts.

++But the Guardian said that President Obama didn't flinch in describing the conduct of the tax evaders in the Panama Papers. He said some were legal and some illegal but all were evading their legal responsible to pay taxes. The DOJ has opened investigations into those cases exposed by the world's largest leak.

++Obama went on to state new measures he was taking to restrict these tax havens.

++And no, this was not a U.S. plot against Vladimir Putin, whose bagman turned out to be a cellist,something that amazed Russians familiar with Putin's corruption.

Now That We Have Turned To New York

++The media gives you the impression that the party primaries start now because the Big Apple looms ahead. Rep. King lashed out at Ted Cruz for his attack on New York values. The daily tabloids have weighed in on Cruz statements and former Mayor Guiliani has endorsed the Donald.

++Morning Joe welcomed Hillary Clinton back to New York and they have focused on Bernie Sanders' disastrous interview with the Daily News. Mika this morning even took the questions from the Daily News to give Bernie Sanders another bite at the Apple. Spike Lee has interviewed Bernie Sanders on what Black Lives Matter means to him.

++Meanwhile Bill Clinton decided on his own to defend his Welfare Reform and to accuse Black Lives Matter of defending gang leaders and felons. The Big Dawg doesn't seem to have received the memo for him to zip his lips on these matters.

++The Donald is showcasing Manafort as his delegate chief and has changed campaign managers.

++For all the circus, Nate Silver has Trump at 99% probability he will win New York and Hillary Clinton at 97%.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Lady Huskies Win 4th Straight NCA Women's Basketball Championship! UCONN 82 SYRACUSE 51.

Any Change In Democratic Race After Wisconsin.

++I got Bernie Sanders' e-mail about his win in Wisconsin. Let's see Sanders at 53.5% to Hillary Clinton's 46.4%.

++Solid win but not overwhelming like the Western Caucuses. The sad truth is that mathematically Sanders does not have a chance at the nomination.

++We are heading to more urban states. Hillary Clinton, according to Nate Silver,has an almost 94% probability of winning New York. 

++Where are the big delegate winners for Bernie?

Ted Cruz Beats Trump in Wisconsin Primary.

Bernie Sanders Wins Wisconsin Primary.

Oh What A Surprise. Ted and Heidi Cruz Have Off-Shore Accounts. But, then again, so did Mitt Romney.

President Obama's Approval Rating . 53% approve, 43% disapprove.

The Panama Papers Takes Down First Head Of State

++The Panama Papers which is the largest leak to date--about 1.5 terabytes-- documents between $25-45 trillion in offshore tax havens. The big initial hit was about $3 billion Vladimir Putin keeps in an offshore account.

++But Iceland which had been rattled during the global meltdown and eventually investigated and jailed their bankers, found its Prime Minister and his wife had off shore accounts. At first, his wife claimed they paid their taxes, then the PM stonewalled the press, next he asked the parliament to resign for a snap election.

++Now Sigmundir David Gunniaugsson has resigned.

Saturday, April 2, 2016

In Case You Missed It.

++President Obama hosted 50 world leaders at the Nuclear Security Summit, his last. He points to some success. Vast Areas of the world are now nuclear free--all South America and large parts of Asia. He said since the initiative began enough material for 150 atomic bombs has been destroyed. He warned that yes, a madman will surely use nukes.

++President Obama took the opportunity to criticize Donald Trump, who was also in Washington. The Donald had suggested that Japan and South Korea develop nuclear weapons. Obama said,"Trump doesn't understand nukes or the world."

++Living here I didn't notice any of the world leaders or any hubbub.

++President Obama and the Chinese announced they would move to sign the climate change agreement as soon as possible as news from the Anarctic shows that oceans levels will rapidly increase more than scientists previously though because a large nice mass is supposed to separate soon.

++In related news, President Obama and Justin Trudeau had agreed to several climate change agreements like monitoring methane emissions in the Arctic.

Rand Paul Decides He Will Vote For Donald J. Trump.

Roger Stone's "Days Of Rage"

++MSNBC said that Roger Stone,Trump former adviser but still supporter,is going to incite a Days of Rage ala 1968 if the Donald's nomination is stolen. Well, he didn't quite says that directly. Stone has created Stop the to put attention to the GOP's efforts to basically disenfranchise their primary voters. He plans to enlist Pat Buchanan and other frustrated Republican candidates to challenge the convention. He did say that it was no unthinkable that actions against Trump would incite violence.

++The RNC continues to fuel this reaction as Reince Preibus said that the RNC would not relinquish control to Trump is he won the nomination.

++This was said at the same time an RNC official tried to tell Republicans that their primary vote was a preliminary choice, not a final choice on who would be the nominee.

++And it didn't help that Marco Rubio sent a letter to state committees saying he was not released the delegates he has won because it was imperative to stop Trump.

++Meanwhile the Donald has added 5 events in Wisconsin before the primary, which he is expected to lose. However, later this month polls show him winning New York and Pennsylvania.

++The #NeverTrump crowd calls Wisconsin, Trump's Waterloo. I guess that's like saying the ACA was Obama's Waterloo.

++The New York Times had an editorial today  about the nuttiness of # NeverTrump meaning another intolerant right-winger in the form of Ted Cruz.

++Alexander Burns "G.O.P Fears Trump as Zombie Candidate: Damaged But Unstoppable" in the New York Times analyzes how the Republicans are trying to cope with the Donald's massive unfavorables for a general election. 

++Jeremy Peters in "As Convention Clash Looms,Republicans' Focus Turns to the Delegates" does your homework for you on how the delegate process works and what it means to be uncommitted and unbound.

Friday, April 1, 2016

BINGO! Ted Cruz is on the D.C. Madam's Call List--7 times!

++Diane Marshall ,a local blogger, got the call list and located Ted Cruz on the phone to Jeane Paltry. Maybe James Ellroy was right about politicians.

Where Alex Jones May Be Right

++Alex Jones supports Donald Trump, something that is being held against Trump, but he went on a rant today that mirrors some observations of other political columnists.

++Jones titled his video piece "The Elections have been officially cancelled." What he took umbrage at was Karl Rove's statement that the GOP needed a fresh face--Paul Ryan?--as the nominee. Jones is hip to the stories that Trump has lost control and because he didn't say he would support the nominee he may lose his delegates from South Carolina. Jones pointed out that the people who voted believed they were voting for a specific candidate, not for someone to be selected by the establishment. 

++There have been several blogs on the right that think anyway to stop Trump is good but think about it. A "contested convention" actually means that the GOP establishment conjure up some theater to create a new candidate. This is not like Estes Kefauver versus Adlai Stevenson. This is not a contest between two gurus in a political party but the establishment over-ruling the primary voters to install someone they prefer. 

++If you are a populist like Alex Jones ,you go bananas with this talk and are quite right in being pissed that the mainstream media doesn't talk about this in the open. Everybody has gotten on the #NeverTrump bandwagon but no sees those controlling this. 

++You are beginning to read about Rule 40B. The odds are that the Republicans will withdraw this rule prior to the Convention. That allows the Party to nominate Romney,Ryan or anyone else that hasn't been damaged by this primary process. 

++People are gaming the primaries out right now and say that if Donald loses Wisconsin to Cruz ,then he will go to the convention about 100 short of the nomination. And as Nate Silver says if that happens, he won't make it. 

++Roger Stone thinks that the GOP has Mitt Romney suited up and willing to get into New Jersey and the last few primaries. I think it may be too late to enter. But Stone's view is that the whole Bush crowd is so damaged that they will get behind Romney. His take on the Bush family is close to being like James Ellroy on all politicians.

++While the GOP has telegraphed every move they have made,it's unclear they can orchestrate any of this without massive casualties to them and unfortunately to the political system.

++The Party Decides Crowd may be theoretically right, but it presumes there is a coherent party. I don't see it.

++Josh Marshall at Talkingpointsmemo wrote today that we are used to the marginalized losing their right of franchise, but we rarely see a party disenfranchise their own. And now we are seeing it. 

Hell To Pay--Josh Marshall

++Josh Marshall is quick to say he is not back from vacation early but that he is experimenting with his iPad. But he has been looking at the situation among Republicans and realises that Trump delegates may not be Trump delegates after all but people chosen by local parties, something the Donald only realized this week.

++Nate Silver is getting the drift with his column today that Trump may get to the first ballot with the lead but it could evaporate the minute Cleveland goes to the second.

++Marshall, however, sees this as explosive because the Trump voter is the grievance, anger driven voter that the GOP has been marinating for years and to deprive this base of its choice would threaten catastrophic consequences.

++Roger Stone appeared of Infowars and talked about the something. He comes at this as a Trump supporter who says the Party is deliberately trying to rob Trump of the nomination by these delegate hijinx. He pointed to the upcoming New York primary, which he thinks Trump will win. He pointed out that Trump has Carl Paladino to whip the delegates but that the state party, who all hate Trump, will choose the delegates. That is why he has assembled a team to block the Stealing of the Vote at the convention. 

++Stone went on about the GOP's super delegates which are all party chairmen and other party officials. None of them are for Trump, which mirrors Silver's column. 

++It's going to be a hot summer in Cleveland.

Out of The Box

++Andrew Sullivan says he will not vote for Trump,Clinton or Cruz. It will be his first American election where he can vote. He says that Trump is a neo-fascist. Trump is the American Putin,who would ignite religious wars across the globe.

One Benefit Of The Trump Candidacy--The Return of Andrew Sullivan

++It's been a year without His "Dishness" and now Andrew Sullivan returns not to blogging but long-term journalism.

++He will be blogging the two party conventions. But will be a regular at New York Magazine. 

++His first essay will be on Trump

++Welcome back,Andrew.

Karl Rove Thinks the GOP needs a "fresh face" to be the nominee against Clinton (wink).

THE TED Lady Discovers Viking Settlement in Canada.

++Dr. Sarah Parcak using satellite images discovered "hot spots" where she suspected Viking sites. When she moved her work to examine North America located a site at Point Rosee, which yielded bog iron and trenches that appeared to be from the Norse discovery of North America. 

++You'll remember her for the TED lecture where she demonstrated her discovery of multiple pyramids that had been covered by the desert in Egypt. Her talk netted her a $1,000,000 prize.

++Her findings will stream online by NOVA on Monday at 3:30ET, or next Wednesday on PBS at 9PM.

Narrowing the D.C. Madam's List Down.

++Apparently there are 780 names and phone numbers which were not released when Jeane Paltry released 10,000 phone numbers.

++Thom Hartman did the work to find out that John Kasich had departed Washington in the timeline left of the remaining numbers and names.

++The odds are it wasn't the Donald. He was nowhere near Washington during those years. 

++But Ted Cruz was clerking for the Supreme Court at the time and was notorious for eyeing woman at White House functions.

++Then again it could be Bernie Sanders but that would only further encourage his support.

Today's Labor Report: Economy Adds 215,000 Jobs. Thanks Obama.