Sunday, September 30, 2012

Florida Poll

++PPP--Florida--President Obama 49 to Romney 45.

Ohio Poll

++PPP in Ohio--President Obama 49 to Romney 45. Down 1 from previous poll.

Slow Poll Say

++The Obama campaign has announced it is close to 10 million donors this election cycle, a record for any grassroots campaign.

++Before we are treated to a week of hype by the media on the Mittmentum leading up to Wednesday's debate, let's look at today's most important polls:

Columbus Dispatch: OHIO-- President Obama 51 to Romney 42. President Obama splits the senior vote and sweeps everyone else.

Des Moines register--IOWA--President Obama 49 and Romney 45. Only 2% are undecided.

Rand National--President Obama 51 to Romney 43

Saturday, September 29, 2012


++Rasmussen tracking Obama 48-Romney 46.

A slew of state polls came out yesterday and they weren't good for Willard. Only 4% of GOP operatives believe they have a good shot at the Senate. In February, it was 66%.

Romney needs a 6 to 8 point bounce from the first debate to get back into the race.

Friday, September 28, 2012

The Morning Numbers

++Intratrade hit all-time high of 77.4% for Obama.
++Intratrade now is taking bets on states:
      Ohio--80% Obama

++Economist/You Gov  Obama 48 to Romney 43.

++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist
     New Hampshire   Obama 51 to Romney 44
     Nevada                Obama 49 to Romney 47
     North Carolina     Obama 48 to Romney 46

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Left-wing Poll

++Fox News President Obama 48, Mitt Romney 43.

Today in the Polls

++Gallup National tracking--Obama 50 to Romney 44.
++Washington State-Gravis Marketing Obama 56 to Romney 39.
++Colorado-Gravis Marketing Obama 50 to Romney 46.
++Connecticut-PPP-Obama 54 to Romney 41.
++New Hampshire-Greenberg Obama 52 to Romney 45.
++Missouri-Chelenski Strategies-Obama 44 to Romney 50.

++Pew poll on Catholics-President Obama 54 to Romney 39.

A Lull In the Action

++Nate Silver today analyzes Romney's Plan B--winning without Ohio. The Hail Mary Pass would lead to Romney winning with 273. That is he would have to sweep what were once called Toss-Ups states.If he lost New Hampshire, he would be stuck at 269 and tied with the President. He needs to carry Virginia, Florida, Nevada,Iowa and Wisconsin. Earlier I did my own post at this imaginary outcome. I still say that the historical rule no Republican can win the presidency without Ohio has more weight than either my or Nate Silver's mental gymnastics. 

++Most interesting in his analysis is that he ran 25,001 computer simulations with Romney losing Florida and Ohio and found literally ZERO cases where Romney wins.

++Since Polling Trutherism is now the rage that polls are breaking in Obama's direction, the Right can take heart with Romney winning the latest Indiana poll 52 to 40, returning that state to the Republican fold. However, the tea bagger in the Senate race is losing to the Democrat.

++Larry Sabato at Crystal Ball has released his predictions. Obama wins the presidency with 290 Electoral Votes to Romney's 206. The Democrats hold the Senate 51 to 49. The Republicans hold the House 236 Republicans--199 Democrats. Sabato generally has accurate predictions.

++IPSOS-Reuters tracking poll has Obama at 49 to 43.

++Nate Silver is right about one thing--it is unlikely Obama will win Ohio with more than his national lead.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012


++For one brief moment Pollster had no toss-up states left. Basically,the Republicans managed to flip Indiana but that was it. North Carolina went from Obama back to toss-up with Obama holding a two point lead. Final electoral votes: 332 to 191. Obama

Does one Wish a Happy Yom Kippur?

++For those celebrating Yom Kippur have a blessed and meaningful one. Mitt Romney can't because he doesn't apologize, let alone atone.

++Nate Silver has put Obama at 81.9% and popular vote at 51.3% and Romney at 47.6%.

++Intratrade is at Obama 75 and Romney 25.

++Princeton Consortium claims their popular vote margin has hit a high of 5% and electoral vote is 343 to 195.

++TPM has Obama at 49.1%, which is their highest in three years. Obama has a 4.9% lead in the popular vote.

++Most important is the Presidential Halloween Mask Index. Obama has sold 69% to Romney's 31%. For the BUY COSTUMES Stories, they have been right for three consecutive elections and for Spirit Masks, the makers of the Halloween Masks, they have called it the last four elections.

7-Eleven Landslide

++Intratrade has it 74.7% probability Obama will win.

++The Most important indicator of the election if the 7-Eleven poll. Obama leads 58 to Romney 42.

++AP is reporting late in the day that the Obama campaign is thinking of buying ad time in Arizona and making a run at that state with a large Hispanic vote. Last time the campaign decided McCain's advantage as native son made the gamble too costly. It all depends on the cash on hand and what they think they can do to help Richard Carmona win the Senate seat.

++The Obama campaign is trying to lower expectations for the debates because President Obama has had few practice sessions compared to Romney and hasn't debated since 2008 while Willard debated throughout the primary season.

++October Surprise? I always think Republican in this regard but then there was the W.Bush DUI sprung by Gore at the end of the 2000 campaign.
So some have suggested an Obama surprise on Romney's taxes. Rumors have circulated that Willard asked for the tax Amnesty in 2009 for those having overseas bank accounts. While observers note that there would be blowback if the Obama administration leaked this from the IRS or Eric Holder's office, there is nothing to prevent the UBS whistleblower from declaring one of the names he gave Justice was Willard Romney or his wife Ann. So keep in mind the name Bradley Birkenfeld. He was the UBS whistleblower who got a reward of $104 million for ratting out Americans with Swiss bank accounts. 


++The place where Obama's run for the Presidency began looks like they are returning their favor again this year. Even with Republicans gaining in registration since 2008,PPP shows it 51 to 44. 

++It might have to do with Republicans not passing the farm bill in a hard-hit farm state. 

++Meanwhile while Willard continues to campaign in Ohio, his tin ear never lets you down. In a blue-collar state, he holds a rally on manufacturing and only has business executives on the platform. Blogger Booman knows why Ohio is gone--1 in 8 jobs in Ohio are tied to the auto industry. 

++Frank Luntz ,the GOP strategist, admitted that the Bain ads by Obama sunk Romney in a state like Ohio. Earlier this morning another GOP strategist said that the auto bailout murdered Romney and his own op-ed about letting Detroit go bankrupt. 

++Meanwhile the Duracell Bunny President was greeted with rapturous excitement at Kent State. Willard had a rally in an empty airplane hanger. I guess Ryan is right to call Romney "stench".

Those were the days my friend. I thought they'd never end.

++Rand Tracking poll: President Obama 50--43.

++Gallup Poll: President Obama 50--44 Romney.

++Pennsylvania: F&M President Obama 52 to 43.
                           Quinnipiac Obama 54 to 42.

Yesterday Mitt Romney admitted President Obama had not raised taxes during his term in office--yet. But today Romney in Westerville,Ohio told voters not to expect huge tax cuts for the middle class from him. He told the crowd he was going to lower deductions and exemptions--just the things the Obama campaign accuses him of.

"It Always Comes Down to Ohio" Richard Nixon

++This Morning's Quinnipiac/New York Times poll of Ohio is truly astonishing. President Obama leads Romney by 53 to 43. As the Obama campaign said,"It's not over until Karl Rove sings."

++And Florida is also eye-opening. President Obama at 53 and Romney at 44.

In the 25 polls of Ohio going back to June, Romney has only led in three. Both candidates will be campaigning in the state today.

You know President Obama is putting it away when you read the cover story in the Washington Post about how President Obama cultivated the states for the last four years through government programs and constantly visiting the state. 

And Ohio voters will be treated to 1 million DVDs of "Dreams of my Real Father", a pseudo-documentary that claims President Obama is the son of a black Communist and has been "brainwashed" as a Communist operative. This comes as white working males are jumping the Romney ship because of his rant in Boca Raton about the 47%.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

What's My Name?

++Dance, Barack, Dance. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.

++Bloomberg national President Obama 49-43 Likely Voters.

++Gallup President Obama 48 to 45.

++Over 65 years old, PPP 48 to 47.

++Florida: Times Union Insider Advantage President Obama 49 to Romney 46.

Forget Washington,campaign on the road. The reason President Obama is winning is because he is perceived as an honest man doing an impossible job for the American people and not the special interests here in Stoogeland. Fired up, Ready to go! Get'em.

It's Getting Better All The Time*

*Kudos to the Beatles and a blogger at Democratic Underground.

++Nate Silver's late afternoon post at 538 is worth reading. Nate has digested all the polls and he says few will change what's coming down. He believes the state polls have already factored in what he believes now is a 5 pt Obama lead nationwide. With Obama's national polls hitting about 49% right now,he will join the others who led at this point late in September and won the presidency--which virtually all of them did.

++Romney is busy trying to stop the loss of Ohio with his three-day bus tour. He has the rest of this week. Then his campaign is done to one debate and one jobs report. A good one this month would severely damaged any hopes he would have of pulling this thing off. Only one debate because the results are now getting baked.

++Romney on a rare bit of candor did admit that President Obama has not raised taxes in his nearly four years in office. A remark that made Paul Ryan wince.

Vote Early and Often

++PPP/Daily Kos has national poll--President Obama at 50 and Romney at 45.

++PPP Nevada President Obama 52 to Romney 43.

++Monmouth College/Asbury Park Press: President Obama 52 to Romney 37.

++At this stage on the 2008 election Obama was advertising in 21 states while McCain was in 16. Today,all ads are now only in 9 states for each candidate--Iowa,Colorado, Florida, North Carolina,Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. One Superpac has bought $1 million in ads in Michigan. That's it. Outside groups and Romney have purchased 18.8 million to President Obama's 14.5 million. But the Romney ad advantage dissipates when you realize his campaign doesn't have control over the Superpac money and therefore can't control the message.

++The bad news is that 10 million Hispanic voters may be ineligible to vote because of Voter ID laws. That is an extraordinary number when you realize that 25 million Hispanics are eligible to vote.

++Voting starts today all over the country. In Iowa you can actually vote in person. What this means is that time if running out for the challenger. Basically, Romney is now down to one debate to have a seismic impact because early voting will have cut into his time to pull an October Surprise or knock out Obama in the debates. 

Post Polls on Ohio and Florida

++That's it. I have to move Ohio to Obama and take it out of Toss-Up. The Washington Post poll has Obama 52 to 44. Over 36% of people in Ohio have been contacted by the Obama campaign. That's outreach! 

++In Florida, among likely voters it is 51 to 47, with Obama taking solid leads in almost every category. 

++Remember voting starts this week. By election day,46 million Americans will have voted or 35% of the electorate. It seems unlikely the GOP will have an advantage here because the Romney campaign is still in shambles. 

Monday, September 24, 2012

Mark Your Calendar for September 24

++If September 21 marked Obama hitting his electoral vote ceiling, today marks Obama leading in every swing state.

++Pennsylvania. Mercyhurst U--Obama 48 to Romney's 40.

Polls Rollout

++Gallup Tracking: President Obama 48 to Romney 46. Obama's approval rating: 51%.

++Latino Decisions: Obama 69% and Romney 24%.

++Civitas (right-wing) Obama 49 to Romney 45.

++American Research Group:

    Florida: Obama 50% and Romney 45%
    Iowa:    Obama 51% and Romney 44%
    Nevada:Obama 51% and Romney 44%

++Rasmussen: Michigan. Obama 54% to Romney 42%

Princeton Consortium

 ++Sam Wang leaves it at President Obama with 332 Electoral votes, Romney at 206. Obama's chances at re-election are at 90%.

++Read Nate Silver's 538 column today in the New York Times. Nate does a recap of the presidential races this century and the outcomes with the polling at this stage of the campaign. This does't bode well for Romney. Nate has Obama's re-election at 77.6%.

++We have two job reports left before the election,three debates between the presidential nominees, one with the vice presidential nominees and the mysterious overseas October Surprise.

Big Wheel Keep on Rolling

++Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll today:President Obama 48 to Romney 43. The key here is that Romney's lead among Americans 60+years has dwindled to lead than 4 points. Romney now trails among those 45 to 65 years old by seven. While GOP efforts to suppress the young, African American and Hispanic voters might diminish President Obama's vote, this news about Romney's core supporters is devastating and would do lasting damage. To win, Romney needs a majority of those over 50.

++GWU-Battleground poll: President Obama 50 to Romney 47. Obama is at a 50% job approval rating and 53 in favorable. Romney is at 49% unfavorable.

++Rasmussen Tracking poll (which has been the outlier showing Romney leading) has President Obama at 47 to Romney at 46.

++USAToday/Gallup. 51% of Americans favor Obama to 43% Romney on the issues of Medicare and Social Security.

++WE ASK AMERICA: Wisconsin. President Obama 53 to Romney 41. Tammy Baldwin 52 to Thompson 40.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

PPP On Colorado

++Colorado--President Obama 51 to Willard 45.

PPP on Florida

++The majority of Florida voters thought Romney's remarks on the 47% were inappropriate. His favorability rating lost 9 points in the state and had been at 49. The contest:President Obama 50 to Willard 46.

Two More with one on Ohio

++The Columbus Dispatch shows President Obama at 51 and Willard at 46. President Obama is chosen as favorite on the economy.

++Zogby has a poll taken September 21 and 22. President Obama 49, Romney 41, Gary Johnson 2, Green Party 2, Virgil Goode 1. The country on the wrong track is 52%, which is an enormous improvement.

One More

++University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research --OHIO   President Obama 51--Willard 46.

One I Missed

++Today's Gallup poll: President Obama 48 to Willard's 46. President Obama's approval rate is 51%.

In Case You Missed it

++Our Do Less Than Nothing Congress fled the Capital having filibustered the Veterans Jobs Bill, which had bipartisan support and was completely paid for,failed to act on the Obama Jobs Bill introduced last fall,and failed to pass the Farms Bill in the middle of the worse drought since The Dust Bowl days. The latter will result in the bankruptcy of many farmers in the Mid-West. It also fails to fund programs for rural areas, which President Obama had touted. I guess that the reason not to pass it.

++VP hopeful Paul Ryan was booed lustily at the AARP convention for his foolish description of his plan for Medicare and Medicaid. It's best not to address an audience which knows more than you do about the programs for seniors. After bombing before the AARP, Ryan decided a new tact before seniors in Florida, reviving the old canard that Obamacare has death panels. Since that didn't work, he thought he could appeal to the seniors by saying on day one Romney and he would repeal the mandate for contraceptive coverage in insurance policies. The Tampa Bay Tribune published a pointed editorial this morning about the instant problems for seniors created by the Romney-Ryan Plan on Medicaid. The editorial rightfully points out that the vast bulk of people using Medicaid are not the poor but seniors in nursing homes who have exhausted their savings after living a middle class life. This is a point that the Obama campaign should emphasize as well as the Romney plan would bankrupt Medicare by 2016. 

++Bill Kristol admitted this morning that President Obama had done a good job in rescuing the country from the Bush economic meltdown. He urged Romney to campaign on the future. 

++Romney and Ryan are going to hit the road in Ohio this week joined by Jack Nicklaus. The GOP ticket is in deep trouble here and even voter suppression campaigns may not make it for them. 

++The Senate passed by 99 to 1 a resolution that the United States should back Israel in the case it bombs Iran.

++AIPAC thanked President Obama for his support of Israel. Bibi Netanyahu sent a note to Rahm Emmanuel promising President Obama he was not interfering in the American elections on behalf of Romney. A conservative Superpac is running ads in Florida showing Romney with Bibi and having Bibi talking about the threat of Iran towards Israel.

Cleaning up the polls on Sunday

++Before the onslaught of the Koch-backed GOTV efforts and the armies of the Religious Right,the fragmentary polls outstanding.

++Mason-Dixon Florida Obama 48 to Romney 47
++YouGov Illinois Obama 59 to Romney 35
++YouGov Massachusetts Obama 56 to Romney 37
++YouGov Michigan Obama 51 to Romney 40
++You Gov Missouri Romney 49 to Obama 43
++YouGov Indiana Romney 50 to Obama 44
++Akron Beacon Ohio Obama 51 to Romney 46 and 1 for Johnson

UPI national poll Obama 49 to Romney 45

Friday, September 21, 2012

September 21--Obama Near Peak

Nate Silver wrote that we should mark September 21st as the day when President Obama was reaching his peak of 347 Electoral Votes, which would include North Carolina. Anything above that would mean he would be breaking the ceiling and moving on to states  like Georgia, Arizona, North Dakota and South Dakota, which have been seen as totally out of play this electoral cycle.

Romney's Rolling Calamity

You know you have problems when you decide to dump your tax returns out on Friday to divert attention from your gaffes.

In an interview set to air on CBS tomorrow, Willard says his campaign is going great and there is no reason to make corrections. And maybe there isn't if you believe you can buy the American people. But that's risking a lot. Today, Mitt Romney must win Ohio, Virginia and Florida as well as "his" states in order to reach a tie with President Obama.

So how's it going?

Allstate National Journal Heartland: Obama 50 to Romney 43.

ReasonRupe poll: Obama 52 to Romney 45.

Fox News: Ohio Obama 49 to Romney 42.
                Virginia: Obama 50 to Romney 43.
                Florida:  Obama 49 to Romney 44.

High Point on North Carolina: Obama 48 to Romney 44.

Rasmussen on Pennsylvania: Obama 51 Romney 39.

Purple Strategies run by Lanny Davis and Michael Steele in 12 Swing States Obama 49 to Romney 44.

Colorado: Obama 48 to Romney 45
Florida:    Romney 48 to Obama 47
North Carolina: Obama 48 to Romney 46
Ohio:       Obama 48 to Romney 44
Virginia:   Obama 46 to Romney 43
Arizona:   Romney 48 to Obama 45

As Obama is trending to his 2008 level, he has to watch out for the voter suppression efforts in Pennsylvania,Ohio and Florida. The big media buys will probably make a dramatic shift to the Senate and House races since Romney is endangering the down ballot candidates. 

Thursday, September 20, 2012

My Final Toss-up States

++Ohio--18 Electoral Votes slipping away from Romney.
++Florida--29 Electoral votes 
++New Hampshire--4 Electoral Votes that heavily leans in my opinion to Obama.
++North Carolina--15 Electoral Votes split down the middle.
++Colorado--9 Electoral votes--edge to Obama

So for all the media hype,these are the real Five Toss-ups.

Northeast Electoral Votes

If we take our assumptions of our post below where we assign Obama the state if he polls 49% or higher, then Obama nets 101 Electoral Votes if we include Virginia and allow New Hampshire to remain a Toss Up state.

It is fairly safe to assume the following states are Obama's:
New York --29 electoral votes
Rhode Island--4
New Jersey--14

If you throw in New Hampshire--that's 105 EV from the Northeast and the Tidewater states.
Add our Midwest axis of 100.

And we move to the West Coast:
Washington State-- 12 votes
Oregon --7 votes
New Mexico--5

That's 85 votes . So without taking into account Colorado and Florida, President Obama now stands at 290 EV. 

The Critical Line

++Last election I wrote that the path to victory lay along the line from Minnesota through Pennsylvania. The McCain campaign felt they had a shot at Minnesota,Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain publicly withdrew from Michigan sparking dissent from Sarah Palin who vowed to campaign there with her husband Todd. The McCain camp threw all their weight into Pennsylvania even though every poll showed that it was not winnable. They thought they could capture Minnesota because the GOP belt their convention there and Tim Pawlenty, McCain's buddy, was Governor. This was not to be.

++How does it stand for 2012. After the auto bailout and a slight resurgence of manufacturing, President Obama stands to repeat much of his 2008 victories. Through hubris, Romney figured he was the favorite son of Michigan and with Paul Ryan they could form a Midwestern front. 

++If we take states where Obama is polling at 50 or 49 as givens, he has Minnesota,Michigan and Pennsylvania and Illinois locked away. That's 66 electoral votes. Nearby are Iowa and Wisconsin with 16 electoral votes, where he is close. He seems to have lost Indiana this year with its 11 electoral votes. But is polling very close to taking Ohio, another 18 votes. So that would be a total of 100EV from this line from Minnesota to Pennsylvania.

++Today Mitt Romney withdrew his campaign staff and its Hispanic outreach from New Mexico, surrendering the state to President Obama. Add too this there withdrawing ad funds from Pennsylvania and you would tactical retreats for a bigger play at Ohio and Florida where Romney desperately has to win.

Afternoon Polls

++CNN/ORC-- Nevada 49-46 Obama

++NBC/Wall Street Journal/ Marist polls:

Iowa 50 to 42 Obama
Wisconsin 50-45 Obama
Colorado 50-45 Obama

Wacky Polls

++Nate Silver writes today that the polling take is wacky. Can you believe Rasmussen giving Romney a 4 pt. lead in New Hampshire while Obama wins Wisconsin by 17? 

++Sam Wang, who must smoke great stuff, has the probably of the Democrats taking over the House--not retaining the Senate mind you--at 74%.

++In likely voters,Reuters/Ipsos' tracking poll has Obama at 48 and Romney at 43.

++PPP Wisconsin has Obama at 52 and Romney at 45.

++YouGov, a Republican leaning pollster, has the national election at 46 to 46.   BUT...

++Let's look at the state races:

Colorado: Obama 50 Romney 45
New Hampshire: Obama 48 to Romney 42
Florida: Obama 49 to Romney 47
Iowa:    Obama 48 to Romney 43
Nevada: Obama 51 to Romney 44
Virginia: Obama 48 to Romney 44
Wisconsin: Obama 48 to Romney 47
Michigan: Obama 51 to Romney 42
Ohio: Obama 47 to Romney 44
Pennsylvania: Obama 52 to Romney 43.

North Carolina: Romney 48 to Obama 46.

So Obama takes 10 out of 11 states and the election is tied. OK.

UConn/Hartford Courant on Connecticut: Obama 53 and Romney 32.

Detroit News/WDIN On Michigan :Obama 52 to Romney 37.8

Maybe we are entering a zone prior to the elections that the polls are ceasing to be meaningful.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012


Fox News this evening came out with 3 swing state polls and Obama sweeps the field. Obama has a 49 to 44 lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. If he took all three , he wins. But I am focused on Ohio because that is where John Kerry lost the 2004 election. The Secretary of State in Ohio this time around is still trying to suppress the vote, despite his being chastised by the federal judge. Pity the poor people of Ohio who will have to endure the escalation in ads. It is here that Obama has his stellar GOTV effort. 

++The good news is that we may have an example already how the barrage of negative ads has not moved the Ohio electorate. Far outspent and outgunned, Sherrod Brown is still far ahead of his GOP rival for the Senate.

++Worrisome to Republican operatives is the fact that congressional Republicans are polling better than Romney. But for Senatorial candidates the same doesn't hold true. His fate in close states is theirs. As Charlie Cook wrote in the National Journal,if Romney doesn't take Virginia Dick Allen is toast.

++Obama supporters should to be smug about the debates. Romney has been rehearsing for the debates for months. He has recently debated throughout his primary. The minute he steps on stage he becomes seen as equal to the President. And, yes,the Romney campaign is banking on the fact Romney looks like a President. On the other hand, Obama has to control himself and not get impatient and give off the air "why do I have to stand here and debate this idiot?" He also has to avoid getting pedantic in expressing his policies. And he also has to hide his visceral dislike of Romney.

++Romney is vulnerable in a debate when criticized. He also has a short fuse and has a volcanic temper. Obama should try and get him to lose it. But expect Romney to do decent and spring all sorts of new policy suggestions even though he was avoided them all campaign long. 

++The Obama campaign has a difficult task trying to find the right balance in dealing with Romney in a debate mode.

++Conservatives can't wait for the Biden-Ryan debate. But here they are underestimating Biden. He has run for President many times and debated before the cameras countless times. Ryan is new to the show. If Ryan sticks to his points from his stump speech, he opens himself up to attack. For instance, Ryan criticizes Obama's defense cuts. But it was Paul Ryan himself as head of the budget committee that actually wrote those defense cuts into law. 

++The bar is now so low for Romney that he is sure to clear it . But will it move the needle of the campaign? The Obama people feel that this thing will go down the wire and that polls can come back toward Romney. 

++Others believe the Romney campaign at this late date stands at a critical point. There is now talk that Obama can win this by 5 points and the former Romney supporters switching sides in the Rand Study of American voters is dramatic. The Romney campaign has to stop the bleeding before the debates start in two weeks. They can not afford two weeks more of such self-inflicted damage without crippling the chances of the candidate.

++Nate Silver points out that the polls which show such dramatic gaps in the two candidates' fates are relying on cellphones. Cellphone users overwhelmingly favor Obama. 

Before the Onslaught on Attack Ads begin

++Peggy Noonan asked why the Romney campaign has waited so long with their ads. By the time they air them people will want to tear out their eyeballs and stomp on the goo. Pretty close to the quote. 

++Remember people are now voting for President in 31 states as I write. This early voting benefited President Obama last time and you wonder with the Romney campaign in a meltdown what that vote looks like now.

++A conservative e-mailed me with this plea,"With the foreign policy in the shitter, an additional $5 trillion in debt and 20+million out of work, we can't beat him?"

++While we wait for everything from the Obama ads on redistribution of wealth to Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayres, Nate Silver is busy rummaging through his logrithmns and saying that Obama's post-convention bounce is over and that the President may actually do better in the popular vote than the electoral college. I gather this is Silver doing mind games to keep busy. Of course, his word of caution is with the President at the high 70% probability for re-election.

++USAToday/Gallup has Obama at 48 to 46.
     Obama at 48-47 in Colorado
                     50-41 in Pennsylvania
                     50-46 in Virginia
                     51-45 in Wisconsin.

++AP/Gfk poll has Obama leading in likely voters 47 to 46. But the amazing finding is 52 to 37 for Obama in registered voters. Voters have a 56% approval rating for the President.

++Pew found Obama at 51 to 43 in likely voters; and 53 to 43 among registered voters. Also the enthusiasm gap has disappeared.

++In Wisconsin, Marquette found Obama with a 54 to 40 lead over Romney. Tammy Baldwin is at 50 to 41.

++The most amazing rumor of the day came from the Romney camp questioning how long they can hold out in Ohio since the polls are awful for them. Let's see Michigan, Pennsylvania,Wisconsin and then Ohio out of reach. Time to push the panic button.

++CNN/ORC surveyed Michigan and found Obama 52 to 44. 

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Zoots Allure

++Tip of the hate to Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium for mentioning Frank Zappa in his blog on election methodology.

++Willard hasn't been seen in a battleground state in a week. An airplane accident cancelled a Colorado appearance and he was last seen in Ohio.

++When you have to call a press conference at 10:26 it must be a seismic event--as the video tapes turned out to be. Romney appeared for his "I am not a Crook" moment and only took three questions and shuffled off the stage. Reporters blasted the appearance,saying he would have to answer more questions later. By this afternoon, he re-appeared on the Neil Cavuto Show to reiterate what he said about 48% of Americans and raised the bizarre issue that Illinois State Senator Barack Obama once said he was in favor of wealth distribution and it was on video. Indeed it is since it was a publicly delivered speech. But something almost 20 years ago doesn't quite equal a long devastating speech behind closed doors to a group of megamillionaires.

++Whole books could be written with the lengthy reactions to Mitt's Netflix. Josh Barro for Bloomberg News said it was the day Romney lost the election. Josh Marshall of TPM said the tapes were "devastating". Keith Olbermann taped a "Special Comment" with him laughing uproariously. 

++A new has tag #Romney Encore captured rolling commentary. Nicholas Kristof tweeted ""Condemn people who don't save enough for a weekend house?"

Another commented on Romney saying he didn't have anything growing up with "He pulled himself up by his boat shoes."  

Michael Moore tweeted,"Mitt Romney's campaign is so dead that Mormons just baptized it." 

Another--"Like watching an ocean liner go over Niagara Falls in slow motion." 

Under Breaking Rumor: Empty Chair to announce for the Presidency saying, "Even I can beat Romney now."

Bill Kristol called his remarks,"Arrogant and stupid." But most commentators didn't remark his his comment suggesting Romney step aside for a Rubio-Ryan ticket.

So where are we today?

++Obama at 67.9% on Intrade.

++UPI--Obama 49-45.
++Reuters/Ipsos 48-43.
++Latest NBC/Wall Street Journal 50 to 45 in likely; 50-44 in registered. 

++In the latest Latino Decisions, Obama 68-Romney 26; among men 61 to 32%; among women 74%-21.

Daily Kos--PPP had their poll out that shows something interesting. Obama leads 49 to 47, but in battleground states he's 50 to 46, with an increase of 1; in Red States 46 to 51 (with an increase of 3), in Blue States 51 to 44 ( a decrease of 5.)

By the States:
Pennsylvania : Muhlenberg just confirms the slew of PA polls--Obama 50 to Romney 41.
PPP--Obama 51 to Romney 46.
Washington Post--52 to Romney 44 (likely) and 50-43 registered.
MRG poll--Obama 48 to Romney 42.
PPP Obama 57 to Romney 39
Suffolk University: Obama 64 to Romney 31.
Survey USA Obama 50 to Romney 41.

Elizabeth Warren has led in three straight polls over the last two days.
Tammy Baldwin has led in two straight polls over Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. 
Debbie Stabenow leads in Michigan.

Nate Silver predicts there is a 70% chance the Democrats will retain the Senate, with 51 being his prediction. That dramatically reverses his views of a few weeks ago as the GOP seemed posed to win.

Monday, September 17, 2012

Happy Rosh Hashanah

         Happy Emancipation Declaration Day
         Happy 1st Anniversary to Occupy Wall Street

         Happy 225th anniversary of the Constitution

As Bloomberg News wrote this afternoon, this was The Day Romney lost the election.

I'm to busy with my Mitt Flix to post tonight. See you tomorrow.

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Saturday at the Polls

++The demonstrations in the Middle East seemed to have ebbed despite Al Qaeda urging more attacks on embassies. The Moslem Brotherhood called off the has demonstrations in Cairo. The Pope visited Lebanon and argued against arm shipments to Syria.And Bibi Netanyahu is scheduled to appear on Face the Nation to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat.

++So where are we at the end of the week. An informal poll by CNN asked "Who do you trust on foreign policy? President Obama or Mitt Romney. 79% selected Obama and 21% selected Romney. For the first time since 9/11, Democrats are trusted the same as a party on the terrorist issue. The New York Times indicated that now Mitt Romney is only trusted on one issue--tackling the federal deficit.

++Nate Silver reports that he has down graded President Obama's probability of winning the election to the mid-70s because of August's poor report on manufacturing which had been a positive indicator for President Obama for months.

++In case you haven't noticed, HuffingtonPost has upgraded their computer model for this year's election using both national and state polls. That's why you see President Obama with a 316 to 206 EV advantage. The only toss-up states they have are Wisconsin and Iowa.

++Israel's Haaretz news paper reports polling of the American Jewish community that shows President Obama with a 70 to 25 lead over Romney. Romney's share of the American Jewish vote has plummeted.

++Rasmussen still has Romney leading President Obama in his tracking poll by 48-45. Other polling groups claim the issue is that Rasmussen's poll typically tilt 4-5 its toward the GOP.

++Rasmussen,however, has a shocking poll for North Carolina. President Obama has a 51 to 45 lead.

++In Virginia, according to Rasmussen, Obama has a 49-48 lead.

++Gallup has President Obama at 49 to 44.

++Reuters/Ipsos tracking has President Obama at 48 to 41. 

++CBS/NYT has its poll at 49 Obama-Romney46. But simply taking registered voters, it's President Obama at 51-43.

++If you are interested in foreign opinion, the UPI through Voter International polled 30 countries and President Obama is the choice of 81%.

++In Washington State, Obama is above his 2008 margin at 53 to 36.

++Farleigh Dickinson has Obama leading Romney in New Jersey 52-38.

++The Philadelphia Inquirer has Obama opening his lead to 50 to 39.

++Survey USA has Colorado close at 47-46 Obama .

++In Illinois , Obama has opened up a 47 to 34 lead.

++Michigan The Foster group has Obama by 46 to Romney's 44.

After next week, say goodby to the House, who are going on a two month recess. So don't expect action on the Jobs Bill, the Farm Bill or anything else.

++Romney remarks about the embassy attacks were given wide coverage in all the Swing States and were roundly condemned. The Romney campaign claims they will "refocus" their campaign after the debates. So I guess we can expect the next version of Romney for the last month of the campaign.

++A Federal court ruled against Iowa's efforts to stifle the Vote and delayed any voter purge. In Pittsburgh the Voter ID law goes to court again because the original court decision upholding the law used a legal precedent used during the days of slavery.

++Paul Ryan seems to be cultivating the Confederate vote in Florida by referring to the state as "the breadbasket of the South", which was a term used by the Confederates during the civil war.

++Meanwhile Gallup had President Obama at 49-44.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Late Afternoon after Libya and Cairo

++Since I have received dozens of right-wing attacks on Obama for the assassination of our ambassador to Libya, the demonstrations in Cairo and the attack on the embassy in Yemen, I'll let these people who thought Romney's attack on the President on 9/11 was appropriate to go off and have some time to contemplate the error of their ways.

++Meanwhile back in the election campaign, Allan Lichtman and his keys to the White House still holds to his prediction of an Obama victory.

++Yesterday Gallup has Obama at 51% approval rating and 50 to 43 over Willard. 

++Fox News had Obama 48 to 43.

++Esquire/Yahoo poll 50-46.

++Rasmussen had Romney back on top by 47 to 46.

++PPP-New Mexico Obama 53 to Romney 42.

++ Michigan Obama 47 to Romney 37.

++Quinnipiac --New York Obama 62 to Romney 34.

++Missouri--Rasmussen--Romney 48 to Obama 45.

++NBC/Wall Street Journal --Ohio  Obama 50 to 43.

++NBC/Wall Street Journal--Virginia Obama 49 to 44.

++NBC/Wall Street Journal--Florida Obama 49 to Romney 44

++WMUR--New Hampshire --Obama 45, Romney 40.

++Onsight Public Affairs--Obama 49 to Romney 44.

Late last night before revisions, Nate Silver has Obama at 319 EV to Romney 219. Obama with 91.6% chance of winning.

From the moment Romney answered the right's call to become more aggressive against Obama it was like the exploding cigar.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Late Night Factoids

++Sam Wang at Princeton advises everyone to contribute to congressional races because the presidential race is now baked. He has Obama at 319 and Romney at 219. 

++Nate Silver is saying the bounce is winding down--sort of. It has some more juice to flow.

++The Dow hit a five year high.

++The Colorado Secretary of State has given up his voter purge because everyone turns out to be American citizens.

++Gallup has Obama at 50 over Romney's 44. This is the first time Obama has hit 50 since April and his approval rating stays up there.

++Rasmussen tracking has Obama at 48 and Romney at 45. 

++Rasmussen regular polling has Obama more trusted in job creation than Romney by 47 to 45.

++Illinois has Obama at 54 to Romney 37.

++Survey USA has Obama at 48 over Romney 44 in Florida and Senator Nelson miles ahead of Connie Mack.

++In Minnesota, President Obama is leading Romney 50 to 40.

++PPP has Romney 53 to 44 Obama in Arizona. But the Senate race is Flake 44-Carmona 43.

++Watch for the Israeli-Iran-United States policy flaps to escalate over the next few days. Rumors have Israel in total mobilization now.


++If you want to re-live 9-11 from an official perspective and know how it changed America for the worse, read Kurt Eichenwald's "500 Days:Secrets and Lies in the Terror Wars". Simon & Schuster. 524P. The  Bush era "Neo-conservatives", including Dick Cheney,have a lot of explaining to do. No doubt you will see a lot of spinning on this in the next few days. This story hit today as an Op-Ed in the New York Times and has gained traction in the alternative media. From willfully ignoring months of warning from the CIA about an impending attack to the adoption of torture, Eichenwald's account is horrible.

++If you want to "cheer" up after reading it, listen to Bob Dylan's latest apocalyptic album "Tempest", which also came out today. Bob still does his thing.

PPP/Daily Kos Poll

++Yes, Virginia, there is a bounce. The PPP/Daily Kos poll taken September 7-9, shows President Obama 50 and Romney at 44 with 6 undecided. The note to this poll is that PPP has shifted its frame to likely voter here on out. That's why the PPP poll on Ohio looked lower than both campaigns the other day.

Trying to Keep the Horserace Going

++An ABC-Washington Post poll taken before the conventions has Obama ahead 49-48 in Likely Voters but 50-44 with Registered Voters. But scroll down to paragraph 5 in the Post and there sits the bombshell. In Battleground states Obama has a 54-40 lead among registered voters. It was 42-48 in the last survey. That is a seismic shift.

++The Pew Poll has Obama with a 51-41 lead. The reason is that Romney's unfavorables jumped to 52% and his favorables were only 37%. 

++The New York Times released a series of polls today with Obama up 4 in Virginia, up 6 in Wisconsin and down 5 in Colorado. The last poll had a sample of 39% over the age of 60. 

++Romney is trying to get back some mojo by advertising in Ohio that Obama is off-shoring jobs to China.

++A Virginia paper had an interesting piece that the lower middle class whites in the South are not cottoning to Romney because of his wealth and class. Random whites said they were voting for Obama because he did not come from the rich. Anecdotally,two guys I hired to paint said yesterday that they usually vote for Republicans but this time they had to go with Obama and Biden because those two came from where they started. Contrary to the faux outrage about Biden allowing a biker chick to sit on his lap, these guys thought it was a gas and said "Joe is one of us."

++Nate Silver says that the Obama bounce has now been totally integrated into his model and that he expected 

Monday, September 10, 2012

Watch Out For Gallup

++The rightwing has gone nutso over the polls of the last few days. Gallup is not to be trusted and Dick Morris explained on Hannity its strange business ways. Rasmussen is a liberal so even though his polls are biased toward Republicans he is not to be trusted. Instead, you should trust the recent North Carolina poll by a right-wing Republican group that shows Romney with a 10 pt lead there. A slight problem--Romney would get over 30% of the African-American vote. Not likely. 

++Rush Limbaugh called out the Right saying, "He (Romney) could be Elmer Fudd, we're voting against Obama." But the panic is too real. It is as if the American people finally are saying, "Enough is Enough" with this teabag nonsense.

"The Death Stench"

++Mark Halperin attacked the Romney campaign today and referred to its "death stench."

++The Obama bounce, which is at 5.5% and climbing,may just be the turning point in this whole race. After the DNC, reporters are more willing to call out the Romney-Ryan campaign for its lies and fantastic changes in policies.

++Intratrade has Obama at 60.0 now. 

++The desperation is being heard around the right-wing blogasphere. Rush Limbaugh on his radio show blurted out that out of spite Obama, when he wins, will deliberately crash the economy to encourage looting and pillaging. Frank Luntz, the GOP's master meme creator ,said that the ad that killed Romney in Ohio was the one of the former Bain employee talking about making a platform for Romney and the Bain people who then used it to declare everyone fired and the plant closed. "It was as if I built my own coffin."

++Sam Wang at Princeton Consortium said that his slow working computers showed a jump in 13 electoral votes and .8% in the popular vote. He said that any thing over 5EV and .5% happens when a real shift is happening. And he says it is not over yet.

++In Washington State, Obama leads 54 to 38 of Likely Voters.

++In Massachusetts , a Kimball poll shows Obama winning 56 to 40 among likely voters.

++Wolf Blitzer kept hyping the CNN poll to say that Conventions do matter. Among likely voters Obama leads 52-46 and among registered voters 53-45. For poll watchers this means the enthusiasm gap has practically disappeared and Obama is now enjoying leads among likely voters. 

++The CNN poll was devastating in other respects.
46% are more likely to vote Democratic after watching the Convention.
59% think President Obama will win.
56% say that Obama is in touch with Americans as opposed to 39% for Romney.
51% say that Obama shares their values, only 44% say Romney.
By a margin of 54 to 42, Obama wins foreign policy.
By a margin of 54-43, Obama wins Medicare.
The only issue Romney now has a lead on is the deficit at a slim 50-47.

++The Romney campaign blasted all the polls as "liberal attempts to 'suppress' the Republican base". In a letter to supporters the Romney people said that the Obama bounce is "like a sugar high" and will soon dissipate.