Wednesday, August 31, 2016

HE'S STILL RANTING AND WILL BE EFFICIENT IN DEPORTING PEOPLE--WELCOME TO FASCISM--GOODNIGHT.

MARK SUMMER at DAILY KOS CALLS TRUMP SPEECH "FULL-BLOWN DESCENT INTO MADNESS".

++Forgive me I don't have the stomach for this type of thing. He called for "extreme vetting" and "I mean, extreme vetting" and "ideological certificates". He will do this in the air, the sea and on the ground. 

++So much for the pivot and the pundits saying he is going to act Presidential. He is bonkers. 

++The crowd was even more terrifying. They ate it up with a big spoon. 

++I felt this would be a lame speech where he trimmed his sails. He has gone the full Monty,revving up his primary speech on steroids. There is no retreat now. 

++You can kiss the Hispanic Outreach with this one. Goodby Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. 

TRUMP GOES FULL NUREMBERG AND THE AUDIENCE LOVES IT.

++He will build the wall with modern sensor technology and lasers and Mexico will build it.

++We don't know how many immigrants there are. 3 million, 30 million. No One knows.

++He will have a deport squad within ICE to rapidly deport people. He lovingly spoke about Eisenhower's Operation Wetback and wants to duplicate this effort (which was a disaster). 

++He says this will be good for Mexico. Something the Mexican President told him only hours before was nonsense.

++He detailed the murder of nice white women by Mexican immigrants. 

++He said immigration was flooding this land--actually we have one of the lowest immigration rates in over twenty years and in terms of Mexico a negative rate. 

++The media has let him get away with this immigration issue without citing how small an issue it is. 

MEXICAN PRESIDENT SAID HE TOLD TRUMP MEXICO WOULD NOT PAY FOR THE WALL.

++Trump visited Mexico with Rudy and Jeff Sessions on a day's notice to see the Mexican President who had invited both candidates. The Mexican President made a point of saying NAFTA had been beneficial to both parties and has been blasted in the country for receiving Trump. Trump denied speaking about the wall to the President but the presidential aides deny this. David Axelrod speaking on CNN said that the Mexicans have witnesses to the event who deny everything Trump said afterwards.

++Trump is speaking as I write in Phoenix on his immigration policy. As Josh Marshall wrote, without his hardline immigration policy left,Trump literally has no campaign issue.

REUTERS/IPSOS

++Clinton 40%
     Trump  39%

++Clinton 40%
     Trump  38%
     Johnson 6%
     Stein       2%

WISCONSIN POLLS

++Marquette Law:
Clinton 41%
Trump  38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%

++Monmouth University's first poll:
Clinton 43%
Trump  38%
Johnson  7%
Stein        3%

PRESIDENT OBAMA NAND JOE BIDEN TO CAMPAIGN IN A DOZEN BATTLEGROUND STATES FOR HILLARY.

ECONOMIST/YOUGOV POLL

++Clinton 42%,Trump 37%,Johnson 7%,Stein 3%.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

LIL' MARCO AND JOHN McCAIN WIN THEIR PRIMARIES.

TIMES'UPSHOT: HILLARY CLINTON HAS 88% CHANCE OF WINNING PRESIDENCY.

PPP NATIONAL POLL

++Clinton 48%, Trump 43%.

++Clinton 42%, Trump 37%,Johnson 6%, Stein 4%, McMillan 1%, 10% Undecided.

WAPO REPORTS TRUMP TO MEET WITH MEXICAN PRESIDENT ENRIQUE PENA NIETO BEFORE HIS IMMIGRATION SPEECH.

ACTORS EQUITY MAKES FIRST EVER PRESIDENTIAL ENDORSEMENT--OF HILLARY CLINTON.

ABOUT THAT MONMOUTH POLL ON PENNSYLVANIA,

++Remember Obama won it twice. Clinton has a 90%-5% lead among black, hispanic and asian voters. Obama won in 2012 with only 71% non-white voters.

++Trump leads by 9 among whites. Romney won whites in 2012 by 15.

++Yes,I know the registration has been trending Republican but that's what the poll says.

BAD NEWS: PAUL LE PAGE RECONSIDERS AND WON'T RESIGN AS GOVERNOR OF MAINE.

++The Perhaps good news--Chuck Grassley might consider a lame-duck appointment of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court after the election. 

EMERSON COLLEGE IS AT IT AGAIN.

++North Carolina.
Trump 45%,Clinton 43%,Johnson 8%,Stein 2%, Undecided 2%.

++But Who's Going To Win?
Clinton 54%, Trump 33%.

LeTourneau's article on the Perception of Corruption is in the Washington Monthly.

NANCY LeTOURNEAU HAS A PIECE ON THE CLINTON FOUNDATION AND THE PERCEPTION OF CORRUPTION.

++A must read. LeTourneau writes that the assumption about Hillary's "corruption" is never proved and she slaps liberals for allowing it to continue. She takes as her point the New York Times editorial calling for Clinton to distance herself from the Foundation now. Nancy says look at the emails released by Judicial Watch. All of Clinton's people at the State Department made the right calls. So, where's the beef?

JERSEY SHORE SAVES THE DAY: THE FIRST PENNSYLVANIA POLL OF MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY.

++Clinton 48%, Trump 40%,Johnson 6%,Stein 1%.

++On the Senate Side, Katie McGinty 45%, Pat Toomey 41%.

GOOD NEWS: Paul LePage Says He Might Resign As Governor of Maine.

++Also Iowa Election Markets has Hillary at 80% to win. The stock market is beginning to act like this will be a big win.

IT'S A WRAP

++The New Approval Poll for Trump among African-Americans shows he gets ZERO approval  rating and 3% are undecided. The outreach has done wonders.

++DRUDGE, who is trying to live his glory days as an anti-Clinton website,re-circulated the right-wing rumor that Hillary Clinton has a lesbian affair with Huma Abedin. The slight problem is that Drudge showed Hillary kissing   Burmese dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

++Remember Reince Preibus said Trump would be even or ahead by Labor Day.

++Stuart Rothenberg puts a damper on those of us who feel that this election should be like 1964. Rothenberg shows that electoral blow outs are exceedingly rare because of political politicization and that Hillary's floor is 332 electoral votes and her high about 379. Obama did 332 against Romney and 365 against McCain. 

++Rothenberg says Trump's Rustbelt strategy is going nowhere. Maybe he picks up Iowa and Nevada. He laughs off Trump's claims about making New Jersey,Connecticut and California competitive. 

++Stu says that even if Trump should win Florida,Ohio,Iowa and Nevada that leave him short in the electoral college.

++He feels the missing question is whether Hillary can take North Carolina. But then that's academic.

++Mother Jones does a public service by showing that 45% of the donors to the NRA are foreigners. It is the way they can sell guns in the United States.

++The Clinton campaign's fund-raising is now aimed at the House. May I humbly suggest that the reader adopt a congressional candidate. I have three --two American Indians and a Danish-American women. My Senate picks are Russ Feingold, Patsy Judge in Iowa and two to be chosen later. If you live in California,donate to Darryl Issa's opponent because the car thief is in real trouble.

++As for the Clinton campaign,it is running very smoothly and is focusing its SuperPac money on GOTV activities among Hispanics and African-Americans. The press has criticized it for not holding a general press conference. Mook argues Hillary has had over 300 one-on-one interviews during her campaign. But the press want more--to talk about her emails.

++I rate Clinton's campaign better than Obama in 2012 where he decided to play it safe,and 2008.  The one issue I have is that it doesn't seem to have the bottom up feedback Obama built in his 2008 campaign. This allows surrogates to hone the message to localities and micro-target infrequent voters. 

++About Hillary Clinton's ethical issues, you lose me. Let Trey Gowdy investigate them all next administration. I suggest bringing Dan Burton back to shoot watermelons to prove she could have killed Vin Foster.

++But it is basically a wrap. Hillary by early KO. 

NBC NEWS/SURVEY MONKEY

++CLINTON 48%, TRUMP 42%.

++CLINTON 41%, TRUMP 37%, JOHNSON 11%, STEIN 5%.

Monday, August 29, 2016

ANTHONY WEINER IS PROOF THE CLINTONS DON"T HAVE PEOPLE MURDERED--BEST INTERNET LINE OF THE DAY.

U.S. ADMITS 10,000 SYRIAN REFUGEES AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.

SAM WANG MAKES HIS SENATE FORECAST.

++Sam Wang over at Princeton Elections Consortium makes his Senate Forecasts today. Please read his explanations he tells us more about the meta-margin and the Baysian Drift.

++For me, te relevant take-away is the Democrats have a 72% chance of retaking the Senate with 51 Dems-49 Republicans.

++The Dailykos has it a 59% chance.

++Robert Reich writing today says that his pollster friends tell him Hillary wins big and the Democrats take the Senate with a large majority but not getting to 60.

++Remember Senator Testor saying he thinks the Democrats win with 53 seats. 

++Unfortunately,Sam is looking right. It will be a small majority and will be threatened in the next off-season election in 2018. 

AFTER 52 YEARS ,THE COLOMBIAN CIVIL WAR IS OVER. TOTAL CEASEFIRE STARTS TODAY!

TPM SCOREBOARD

++Clinton 46.6%, Trump 41.1%. The 5.5pt lead mirror the February polls. 

++Electoral Votes. Clinton 326, Trump 154.

++Toss-ups: 58 Electoral Votes.
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Missouri
Iowa.

++In other aggregates, Clinton is assured 272 electoral votes at least.

MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL

++Clinton 49%, Trump 42%.

++Clinton 46%,Trump 39%,Johnson 7%,Stein 2%.

TPM TRACKER: Clinton 46.6%, Trump 41.1%

RCP Polling Averages.

++Clinton 48.3%, Trump 42.3%.

++Clinton 272 EV,Trump 154 EV.

EMERSON POLLS

++Real Clear Politics has Hillary at 272 EVs and 80% winning.

++Michigan: Clinton 45%,Trump 40%,Johnson 7%,Stein 3%.

++Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Trump 43%,Johnson 7%, Stein 2%.

++Ohio: Clinton 43%, Trump 43%,Johnson 10%,Stein 2%.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

MORNING CONSULT: CLINTON 43%, TRUMP 40%.

NEW YORK TIMES: CLINTON 89% CHANCE OF WINNING.

POLITICO SAYS TOO LATE FOR TRUMP TO TURN IT AROUND: 90% OF VOTERS ALREADY DECIDED.

DOUGLAS BRINKLEY; "OBAMA THE MONUMENT MAKER".

++Douglas Brinkley's "Rightful Heritage" about FDR's conservation efforts is magnificent. I literally learned something on every page about FDR, who would have been great even if he hadn't become President. 

++Now I hope Douglas Brinkley turns his New York Times' op-ed into a book, "Obama the Monument Maker" about president Obama's conservation legacy. 

++Brinkley refers to Obama as the 21st Century Theodor Roosevelt for his protection of public lands and marine reserves.

++So here's Brinkley's wishlist: Bear's Ears,Utah; Gold Butte, Nevada;the Greater Grand Canyon Heritage Monument;Castner Range,Texas, which Jack Kerouac writes about in Dharma Bums. 

++Contrast Obama and Brinkley with The Republican Platform to return public lands to the states and develop them with the private sector.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

JOSH MARSHALL FLAGS CAUSE FOR CONCERN

++Marshall writes today that the National Debate Commission has down a decent job over the years ensuring the presidential debate are substantive policy exchanges. But he warns that the Commission this year seems--I stress seems--overly solicitous about Trump's sensitivity about moderators who don't oppose him. Marshall is concerned about this as should be most of us that the Donald doesn't pull something off. Josh thinks Trump has gotten into these people's heads. And that's a matter of concern.

MONUMENTS FROM OBAMA

++My computer has been down for the last two days and I can see I haven't missed anything. 

++The New York Times' lead editorial finally recognized President Obama's contribution to the national park system by his designation of Maine's north woods as a national monument and his extension of the marine monument off Hawaii, which will consist of 582,578 square miles off Hawaii and will protect 7,000 species of marine life from commercial exploitation.

++The New York Times shares my hopes for monument status for Bears Ears, an area of about two million acres in southeastern Utah, which is rich in Native American artifacts.

++Their second candidate is 1.7 million acres adjacent to the Grand Canyon. 

++And a third is located 150 miles southeast of Cape Cod known as the New England Coral Canyons and Seamounts. This would be the first in the Atlantic Ocean.

++President Obama, go for the Gold.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

QUINNIPIAC POLL: CLINTON 51%, TRUMP 41%.

++CLINTON 45%, TRUMP 38%, JOHNSON 10%, STEIN 4%.

++Last time Clinton was up by opts.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

COMRADE JULIAN ASSANGE TO BE ON FOX TOMORROW WITH MEGYN KELLY TO DESCRIBE HIS PLANS AGAINST HILLARY.

COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT AND FARC ANNOUNCE FINAL PEACE AGREEMENTS. THE WAR IS OVER!

WHERE'S TRUMP?

++Don the Con will be in Mississippi with Nigel Farage of Brexit fame. I guess he wants to win this swing state. 

++A Virginia operative for the Trump campaign says Hillary won't live out the first year of her term. I guess testifying for nine straight hours on Benghazi took alot out of her.

++The Right is in high dungeon on the Clinton Foundation. They are quiet about accepting $900 million from the Koch Brothers. By the way Charity Watch gives the Clinton Foundation an A+ and the donors circle gives them a platinum.

++Trump says that only B grade celebrities back Hillary.

++Eric ,son of Donald, says it would be stupid for Trump to release his taxes because we wouldn't understand them. But we would understand not paying taxes.

++The Trump campaign manager says that the polls are wrong because it does not account for "undercover Trump" supporters.

++Ben Carson says "elderly "Trump should release his medical records. 

++The Trump campaign says the Donald can't campaign among blacks because it is too dangerous. Ben Carson says he will escort Trump around his hometown of Detroit.

++No one knows what Trump's immigration policy is anymore. He seemed to agree with Obama's but that didn't upset his supporters.

++While in that other swing state Texas,Trump endorsed former Governor Perry against Ted Cruz in the 2018 election.

++Trump bought 55,000 comes of his latest book and charged it to his campaign. 

BATTLEGROUND STATE: ARIZONA. 43% TRUMP,38% CLINTON,JOHNSON 12%,Stein 4%.

NEW MEXICO FIRST: CLINTON 40%,TRUMP 3!%, JOHNSON 7%, STEIN 1%.

CNN/ORC. North Carolina. Clinton 44%,Trump 43%,Johnson 11%.

NYT SAYS HILLARY HAS 89% CHANCE OF WINNING PRESIDENCY.

HAPPY 100th BIRTHDAY TO OUR NATIONAL PARKS.

++Naturally you can't appreciate them unless you read--Douglas Brinkley, "The Wilderness Warrior: Theodore Roosevelt and the Crusade for America."

++Also, Douglas Brinkley, "Rightful Heritage: Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Land of America." Harper 2016.

++Hopefully, Brinkley will right about Obama and The Promise of America to complete the picture.

++Courtesy of Barack Obama I have a free pass for the rest of my life to the national parks--including parking.  In this case, the and really does belong to you and me.

MONMOUTH INSTITUTE ( NORTH CAROLINA)

++Clinton 44%.
    TRUMP 42%.
    JOHNSON 8%.

++Actually good news.
++Burr 45%--Ross (D.) 43%.

NEW YORK: CLINTON 51%, TRUMP 33%.

THAT WAS QUICK: PRESIDENT OBAMA CREATES THE KATAHDIN WOODS AND NATIONAL MONUMENT.

++After yesterday's donation by the Roxanne Quimby estate of 87,000 acres in Maine, President Obama created the North Woods Monument in Maine. This had been planned for years and faced objection from Governor Paul Le Page. 

++Now President Obama needs to declare Bear's Claw in Utah a national monument to preserve the relics of our native American culture.

++Bravo President Obama who has created more national parks than any other President.

UPSHOT: DEMOCRATS HAVE 60% CHANCE TO TAKE SENATE.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

NATE SILVER TWEETED: IT NOW LOOKS LIKE HILLARY CLINTON WILL WIN THE GENRAL ELECTION AND BIG.

SAM WANG: 96% Probability, Clinton's Meta-Margin now +6.3%, 286 Safe Electoral Votes. Take It To The Bank!

POST AND COURIER (South Carolina) Poll: Trump 39%, Clinton 39%.

REUTERS/IPSOS POLL: CLINTON 45%, TRUMP 33%.

BURT'S BEES' ESTATE OF ROXANNE QUIMBY TRANSFERS 87,000 ACRES TO US FOR NATIONAL PARK IN MAINE.

TPM SCOREBOARD.

++They changed Missouri to Toss-up from Trump.

++Clinton 326 EVs to 154 Trump EVs.

++Most importantly,with Clinton leading with 10 or more points, it is 298 solid Clinton EVs.

MONMOUTH INSTITUE: MISSOURI. TRUMP 44%, CLINTON 43%,JOHNSON 8%,1% Other,8% Undecided.

TPM'S TOSS-UPS TODAY:IOWA,ARIZONA,GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA.

CLINTON CAMPAIGN OPENS OFFICE IN UTAH.

St.LEO'S POLL (FLORIDA)

++Hillary Clinton 51.7%
++Donald J. Trump 37.7%
++Gary Johnson 8.3%
++Jill Stein          2.4%

TRUMP THINKS OBAMA'S DEPORTATION POLICY IS AWESOME--JUST WANTS TO DO IT WITH MORE ENERGY.

CORRECTION: ROANOKE TWO WAY RACE: CLINTON 55% To TRUMP 36%.

ROANOKE POLL (VIRGINIA) CLINTON 48%, TRUMP 32%.

GOING HIS WAY?

++NBC/SURVEY MONKEY:
HILLARY CLINTON : 50%
DONALD TRUMP:      42%

++African-Americans: Clinton 87%-Trump 8%.
++Hispanic: Clinton 73%-Trump 22%.
++Asian-American: Clinton 66%-Trump 23%.
++Other: Clinton 49%-Trump 37%

Monday, August 22, 2016

TRUMP WANTS A SPECIAL PROSECUTOR FOR HILLARY,ALSO SAYS THE POLLS ARE GOING HIS WAY.

"WHEN THEY GO LOW,WE GO HIGH."

++Josh Marshall tries to explain why Trump canceled or postponed his immigration talk because they can't square the square on immediate deportation and the Wall. Marshall talks how Republicans sprang this trap on themselves after balking at immigration reform. 

++Nancy Le Tourneau has two articles ,one on the Clinton campaign as a 21st century digital campaign; and another on Trump as an analog 1980s campaign.

++Melania Trump has hired Holk Hogan's lawyer to sue the Daily Mail because they ran an article how she started as an escort.

++Roger Stone says Trump should release his taxes immediately. Stone also says that Chelsea is the love child of Hillary and Webb Hubbell and that she had plastic surgery when she was 18 to hide the similarities.

++Hillary's health is the big topic from rightwing e-mailers who sent me that Hillary's health his not a conspiracy courtesy of Alexax Jones' Infowars. Remember Karl Rove was the first to raise this when Hillary had her concussion and had to wear prism lenses for double vision. Rove speculated about the blood clouts involved. Rudy has taken the cause up because he ducked the Senate race with Hillary because of health problems of his own. Sean Hannity, who is an adviser to Trump, had a whole show on Hillary's lack of stamina, although no one has produced any convincing evidence. Even Fox and Friends got into the fray but the women burst out laughing at the absurdity of it all.

++The FBI have found 30,000 new emails from Hillary which Judicial watch want to get.  John Dean says that the Republicans are trying to frame Hillary with these e-mails.

++Donald Trump talked to NBC about continuing The Apprentice show in the White House.

++Donald threatened to spill the beans on Mika and Joe of Morning Joe since they are romantically involved.

++The white nationalists are having heart attacks because Trump may or may not be changing his position on immigration. They tweet he's just another politician.

++The big anti-Hillary stories will be the Clinton foundation and how much did donors really get from the State Department. The right wing was saying the head of Bahrain got to see Hillary after a Clinton Foundation donation. Since we sent people from Gitmo to Bahrain,why shouldn't they meet with the Secretary of State?

Sam Wang: 51 Democratic Senators,49 Republicans. Still 95% Clinton.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

UPSHOT: 86% CLINTON. NC 64%, IOWA SOMEWHAT LESS

++Ignore Gravis Marketing because now part of Breibart. They showed Trump leading in Pennsylvania because of strong woman support,a 10% African-American turnout in North Carolina. They were shaky before but there new alliance dooms them.

HUFFPOST: 78% FOR DEMOCRATS TO TAKE BACK THE SENATE WITH MORE THAN 50.

++Remember the strange prediction by Jon Testor. He said the Democrats would win with 53 seats.

TWO NEGATIVE TAKE-AWAYS FROM SAM WANG'S FINAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS

++Polls are settling in and Trump looks like he is hanging on to Romney states. There does not look like Hillary will win in a massive landslide.

++This affects the Senate where Sam has it 50-50. 

++Remember Sam was more accurate than Nate Silver in 2008 and 2012.

RUDY GUILIANI SAYS TAPES SHOW HILLARY IS MENTALLY ILL.

TRUMP SUGGESTS HILLARY IS HAVING AN AFFAIR WITH TERRY McAULLIFE.

YOUGOV: IOWA

++Clinton 40%
++Trump  40%
++Johnson 7%
++Stein       2%.

TRUMP CAMPAIGN ABOUT DEPORTATION FORCE: "IT'S TO BE DETERMINED."

MORNING CONSULT: CLINTON 44%-TRUMP 38%: OVER 50% WILL NOT VOTE FOR TRUMP. GAME OVER.

MICHELLE BACHMAN SAYS HE IS ADVISING TRUMP ON FOREIGN POLICY.

AS PROMISED ON AUGUST 21. SAM WANG SHARPENS HIS FORECAST. IT'S OVER.

++Random Drift 92%,Bayesian 95%. Meta-margin +5.5%. 

++Clinton 342 Electoral votes, Trump 196 electoral votes.

++Now let's go for the Senate and House!

BEN CARSON SAYS TRUMP DOESN'T PANDER TO BLACKS LIKE CLINTON DOES.

ROBBY MOOK ACCUSES TRUMP OF BEING A KREMLIN STOOGE.

CBS/YOU GOV. OHIO. CLINTON 46%, TRUMP 40%.

DAVID DUKE BRAGS ON STORMFRONT "WE'VE TAKEN OVER THE REPUBLICAN PARTY."

Saturday, August 20, 2016

IT'S NOT RACISTS; THEY WANT TO BE CALLED RACIAL REALISTS.

THERE'S CHAOS HERE IN VIRGINIA

++The Donald said that today here in the state where he promises it will end with his law and order campaign. He says he's going to take the country back. I never understood what that meant--having heard the Right say it for the past 7 years.

GEORGE WALLACE'S AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE PARTY FOR THE FIRST TIME ENDORSES A CANDIDATE---Donald Trump.

The Times' UPSHOT: CLINTON 86% CHANCE.

Friday, August 19, 2016

FEEL THE BERN! BERNIE SANDERS WILL BE CAMPAIGNING WITH HILLARY NEXT MONTH.

++Bernie Sanders will campaign on college campuses with Hillary next month targeting states where he won primaries. They expect to draw large crowds as Bernie makes the pitch to working class folks and the millennials for Hillary.  They will be in New Hampshire,Pennsylvania,Michigan, and Wisconsin. 

TIM EGAN "WE'RE WINNING."

++Tim Egan wrote a nice op-ed in the New York Times how the millennials,the Hispanics and the woman are saving America from Trump's bigotry. He points out how Trump is being crushed by millennials in even red states. His point is that this younger generation aren't racists, don't think same sex marriage is a big deal,are concerned about climate change and are now the largest political force. All they have to do is Vote. He cites the Olympics as an example how the younger generation wins.

PRINCETON: CLINTON 342, Trump 196 EV, META-MARGIN 5.5. Bayesian 89%.

++Dailykos: Clinton 314 Evs, Trump 224. 88%. 

COOK AND 270 to WIN

++Cook has it 272,Polls Only Has it 272, Pundits consensus has it 273 Clinton. 

++The so-called toss-ups are Michigan,Wisconsin,Florida,Georgia, North Carolina,and Ohio.

++I would take Michigan and Wisconsin off the list. Hillary has over 5pt leads in Florida and Ohio.

NBC/SURVEY MONKEY WEEKLY POLL

++Clinton 50%
     Trump  41%

++Clinton 43%
     Trump   37%
     Johnson 11%
     Stein         4%

The Shift in Battleground States

++Nancy LeTourneau writes today in the Washington Monthly about how the battleground states are changing and how Hillary can lose most of them and win. 

++Today the actual battleground states are :Ohio,Florida,North Carolina and Nevada. Here, Clinton has about a 2 pt lead in all. The rest of the states are wide clinton leads. If Clinton loses the four states, she still wins.

++And we see from Talking points memo that Arizona and Georgia are bow battleground states.

BOTH LARRY SABATO AND THE COOK REPORT HAVE CLINTON AT 272 ELECTORAL VOTES SOLID.

TPM SCOREBOARD--TWO TOSS-UPS STATES: ARIZONA AND GEORGIA.

Petits Poll. Democratic Pollster

++Clinton 50%, Trump 40%.

++Clinton 45%, Trump 37%, Johnson 8%,Stein 4%.

Reuters/Ipsos Poll

++Clinton 42%, Trump 34%,Johnson 7%, Stein 2%.

++3 Battleground states changed to "lean Democrat".  New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania. Puts Clinton at 274.

PAUL MANAFORT RESIGNS FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

TIME RUNNING OUT FOR TRUMP IN NORTH CAROLINA.

++Katie Glueck in Politico writes how with 80 days left the Trump organization is not in place in North carolina and local Republicans are going crazy because people are getting turned off by Trump's statements on a host of issues. Meanwhile the Clinton campaign is in full gear with staff offices all over the state . On top of this North Carolina hjad their ID law ruled unconstitutional and their gerrymandering called into question. Clinton leads the state from 1% to 9%. 

NATE SILVER

++Nate Silver writes today that Trump has doubled down on a losing strategy and doesn't realize how deep a hole he is in. Nate likens the anti-Trump sentiment in the country to that for Goldwater and McGovern. Nate picks up the critiques of the Times and Post that Trump is solely dependent on white uneducated males. Nate reminds the reader that Trump got 14 million votes in the GOP primaries but needs at least 65 million to win a general election. Nate came as close as he can to saying "The Fat Lady has sung."

SURPRISE--HOUSE REPUBLICANS LEAK NOTES FROM FBI INTERVIEW WITH HILLARY CLINTON

++John Podesta of the Clinton campaign tweeted that reporters have called him to comment on the notes given to the House Oversight Committee which were considered by the FBI to be classified. In fact the FBI warned the House Republicans they faced jail if leaked.

++Republicans said this morning they would go for perjury charges against Hillary when they came back into session. At dispute are 3--count them 3-e-mails, two of which State has admitted were wrongly classified.

JOSEPH SCHMITZ

++One of four--count them--foreign policy advisers to Donald Trump engaged in slurs against his Jewish employees at the Pentagon where he was AG. He was notorious as an anti-semite there, often firing employees because they were Jewish.

++Josh Marshall explains why--like father like son. His father ,the late Congressman from California,was expelled from the John Birch Society for being too extreme,racist and antisemitic. 

++Still don't remember him? He ran as George Wallace vice-president on the American Independence Party ticket.

TOWNHALL'S GUY BENSON HAS A WAY TRUMP CAN WIN.

++Guy Benson writing in the conservative website says Virginia and Colorado are not swing states this year. He's right. It's Georgia and Arizona. But he says Trump needs to plant himself in Pennsylvania and Florida. Let Pence campaign in North Carolina and the swing states.

++Benson says if Trump stuck to his no trade deal economic message and campaigned all over Pennsylvania and poured resources into Florida, Trump could win with 272 electoral votes.

++Even Benson is skeptical because he writes Trump must win all states won by Romney. And he doesn't believe Trump can stay on message for a second.

++What I found interesting was his statement if Trump had to play defense in Texas,it was all over. Hillary get to Texas.

TWO ARTICLES TO SAY TRUMP IS DOOMED.

++In the WaPo,Greg Sergant writes,"There are not enough blue collar men in America to elect Trump.Really."And Jeremy Peters in the New York Times "Donald Trump's Crucial Pillar of Support,white men, shows weakness."

++Peters writes that it would be difficult to design a strategy to get less popular support than Trump's. Romney won white males by 27pts. Bloomberg Survey shows Trump with a low single digit lead in white males. While the WSJ/Marist polls showed that Clinton had a 43%-42% lead in males over Trump.

++Brookings Institute did some simulations and determined that if all non-college white males voted for Trump,Clinton would win the popular vote by 1.1 million.

++In 1980 when Ronald Reagan won election,88% of the electorate was white. In this election,it is estimated at less than 70%.

++Martin Longman at Washington Monthly had a terrific article on the nature of the Trump voter. Based on Gallup research,he showed that they were more suburban than rural,didn't suffer alot during the Great Recession and lived in racially "separate" communities where they had little contact with people of color. They felt more their status was declining and took as reference things that were chaotic in the neighboring community or in the country. 

++Under Booman,Longman at the Booman Tribune wrote two articles to date--well,worth the read--on how this all white election strategy was developed and how it was clear that the GOP could not run on the Romney-McCain platform and win. Alas,choices were made--all awful.

++Interesting note: if voting were restricted to those under the age of 45,Hillary Clinton would win every state and D.C. It seems to me that the scary figure for the GOP going to the future.

GEORGIA

++FOX 5.
TRUMP 43%
CLINTON 43%
JOHNSON 11%.

NEVADA

++Suffolk U.
CLINTON 44%
TRUMP     42%
JOHNSON 5%

++CBS/YOU GOV.
CLINTON  43%
TRUMP      41%
JOHNSON  4%
STEIN          3%

DOJ ENDS USE OF PRIVATE PRISONS.

TPM SCOREBOARD

++Clinton 43.4% Trump 38.2%
++Clinton 341 EV, Trump 180EV,Toss-ups 17

Reuters Ipsos Poll: Clinton 41%, Trump 36%.

THIS MORNING'S PROBABILITIES

++538. 88.7%, 366 Electoral Votes.

++Kos.  89%.

++Real Clear Politics. 80%, 362 electoral votes.

++Princeton. 77-88%, 341 EV, meta-margin: +5.5.

LARRY SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL

++Sabato has modified his prediction.

++Clinton 348, Trump 190.

++Hillary Clinton is now above 270 safe or likely Democratic electoral votes for the first time!

++And we have four more days before the polling deadline for who wins.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

LOWELL WEICKER SAYS GOP LOOKING AT CATASTROPHIC LOSSES.

YOUGOV/ECONOMIST: DEMS LEAD BY 9 in Congressional Poll--Could be Down Ballot Landslide.

TRUMP's DOCTOR LETTER

++A medical doctor writing in Huffington Post talks about how bad Dr. Bornstein's letter is saying Trump is the most fit person to seek the presidency. 

++He needn't have bothered Dr. Bornstein has been dead for ten years. It looks like the Donald wrote it himself.

E.J.Dionne On Bannon

++In his column at the Washington Post, E.J. Dionne reminds us of Bannon's close ties with the European far right parties. In particular,Bannon has a close friendship with Nigel La Farage of UKIP and was supportive of Breixt and talked with La Farage how the right managed to get the Left involved. Bannon also made a documentary praising Sarah Palin as the anti-establishment politician he supports. 

++E.J. says Trump will get wilder and crazier as he campaigns. The bad news for Hillary is that Bannon plants anti-Hillary stories in the mainstream media and she will have to play defense,

++I actually think Hillary should play offense against Trump's Russian connections and his longstanding relationship with the American mob. 

EZRA KLEIN AT VOX TELLS US WHY TRUMP IS LOSING AN ELECTION THE GOP SHOULD BE WINNING

++Nate Silver says the same. We assume both parties will hire the best teams available and will engage in a ground game, one side being better than the other, and the nominee will be qualified at a policy level. Then the fun begins. Ezra Klein writes that based on these assumptions it was widely thought the GOP would win this time and he cites polls showing Rubio and Kasich ahead of Clinton.

++But Ezra points to John Podesta and his record. "This is not his first radio." And Steven Bannon who has never run any campaign and has none of the qualifications to run a campaign. Klein points to the fact that Bannon at Breibart engages in anti-semitic and anti-Muslim conspiracies. He does want to persuade but reinforce the views of a very tiny but vocal minority in the conservative movement. 

++Klein hasn't seen a ground game and thinks Trump's failure at the polls may only be the surface of his problem.

THE TRUMP DUMP

++The Trump campaign has doubled down on Burn It Down. For your Trump news,I recommend Daily Kos' now daily Trump Dump. The hiring of Steve Bannon of Breibart News has been likened to a "turd tornado". The impressions are just filtering in from establishment Republicans who think this is the certain road to a landslide loss. The Washington Post says it is a middle finger at the Republican Party. 

++Josh Marshall keeps following the Russian connection at Talking PointsMemo and has noticed that Trump's tweets widely depend on the alt/right internet sources of the white supremacists and Russian disinformation. This is from a man the RNC just two days ago urged to make an appeal to black voters. Trump supporters at recent rallies have been taped shouting "burn all ni**ers."

++The Clinton campaign anticipates that all the 1990 Bill Clinton scandals will be thrown at her and they are preparing for the debates to be just filthy.

++The new Trump team is as vile as the last and unpleasant in both appearance and speech. There are nasty pieces of work.

The Daily Kos Election Prediction: Clinton at 89%.

On the American Intelligence Community,"I won't use them. They have made many bad decisions."

Former US Treasurer, Rosario Marin: " I will not vote for this little Orange Man".

RCP ELECTORAL VOTE WHERE YOU HAVE TO HAVE A 5% LEAD: Hillary Clinton at 272Evs.

QUINNIPIAC SWINGSTATE POLLS.

++Colorado: Clinton 49%, Trump 39%

++Iowa:        Clinton 47%, Trump 44%

++Virginia:  Clinton  50%, Trump 38%.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: DOES TRUMP HAVE A CHANCE?

++The election team at 538 have a fine discussion where Nate Silver plays grump cat to all of Harry Etten's fantasy scenarios of a Trump comeback. Nate seems obsessed by the ate of the economy as affecting Hillary's Poll-Plus odds. But Nate says sure Trump could shave off 3-4 its by some scandal or a debate performance but that doesn't buy him much. It is the closest you'll come to hearing him say Clinton has it in the bag. He even deals with the promised Wikileaks attack on Hillary and email problems. Even a terrorist attack doesn't necessarily rebound to Trump's benefit. 

++This morning's news that Trump hired Steve Bannon, former banker and Breibart CEO, and Kelly anne Conway ,a former aide to New Gringrich and veteran pollster, makes matters worse. With the news Roger Aisles is advising Trump, Nate says these people believe the 34% of the country who believe what they do are the entire country. 

++Trump has decided to lose as he is and basically has thrown the Republican party overboard.

WHO WILL WIN?

++The Single most predictive question. The Answer is 55% Clinton to 39% Trump.

++We are on track to the largest gender gap in history. 22 points.

Landmark Poll. MICHIGAN

++Clinton 49%, Trump 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 5%.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

SAM WANG EMERGING WITH PREDICTIONS

++Sam Wang has his meta-margin at +5.5 for Clinton. He writes that Clinton is running 5.8% ahead of Obama in 2012. She is outperforming Obama in 14 out of 16 states. The two differences are Maine and New York. In all his power states,Clinton leads in every one.

++His summary is Clinton 51% to Trump 41% with another 8% for the Johnson/Stein candidates. 

++He finds it depressing that Trump will manage 40% since his campaign is cratering. He attributes this to how polarized we have become as a country.

GITMO

++Fifteen Gitmo detainees were transferred to the UAE. 61 are left and 20 have been approved for transfer. One prisoner has been declared a "forever"detainee even though he will not be charged.

MONMOUTH U. FLORIDA. HILLARY CLINTON 48%, DONALD TRUMP 39%.

CLINTON ESTABLISHES 50-PERSON OPERATION IN INDIANA.

ABOUT THAT TEXAS PPP POLL

++We need the millennials to vote now, not later. In Texas,the voters under 45 prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 60% to 35%.

++If you can replicate that elsewhere, the Democrats could win back the House.

538: Hillary at 89.1%

++Do you get the feeling Nate the Great is acting old and fussy. Today he has two pieces where he analyzes how Trump is bringing down the GOP in the Senate and another about how Clinton's lead is clear and steady. But he wants to wait for next week's polls to make sure.

PPP ( TEXAS)

++Head to head. Trump 50 ,CLINTON 44.
(Romney won Texas by 16.)

++Trump 44%, Clinton 38%, Johnson 6%, Stein 2%.

NBC/SURBEY MONKEY WEEKLY POLL: CLINTON 50%, TRUMP 41%.

WASHINGTON POST POLL OF VIRGINIA

++Hillary Clinton 52% to Trump 38%. 9% for Other.

++I guess the guy down the block with a trump sign is lonely. Around DC, it is Hillary Clinton 68% to 23%.

Sunday, August 14, 2016

TRUMP POLLS LESS THAN NIXON DID AMONG THE YOUNG.

++USA/Rockthe Vote poll has Hillary 56% to Trump 20% among those 18-35 years old. Over half the younger voters identify with the Democratic Party while only 20% with the GOP.

BREIXT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE 2019 BECAUSE UK GOVERNMENT IS A MESS.

INDIANA POLL: CLINTON 44%, TRUMP 44%.

Sunday News

++David Atkins at Washington Monthly writes about how delusional conservatives have gotten with this year's Unskewed polls showing the Donald winning. I actually received them from right-wing colleagues of mine. They show Trump preferred in California by 10pts.

++In this week's Atlantic, Peter Beinart writes about "Trump's Intellectuals". Yes, they exist and are neo-Straussians who make a distinction between dictatorship and Ceasarism.

++The Sunday New York Times is a veritable cornucopia of Trump items. Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman writes on "The Failing Inside Mission to Tame Trump's Tongue", which documents what a disaster Trump's campaign is using inside sources.

++Maureen Dowd has found the GOP's ideal candidate--Hillary Clinton. Maureen started her campaign against Hillary Clinton in the 1990s along with William Safire. In fact those two people are responsible for Hillary is a Liar motif all these years. Of all candidates running this year, Hillary rated the most truthful of all of them. 

++Ross Douthat writes this election if about two sexual revolutions--Hugh Hefner's and Gloria Steinem's--in "A Playboy for President". He lauds the religious right for putting up a fight against these cultural changes. This man is confused.

++Nicholas Kristof gets to the point in "Trump is Making America Meaner".

++Josh Marshall has an important reminder that in "Weakness Not Strength" about what all that Russian hacking means. Basically, Russia is still a basket case with nuclear weapons and that no the Russians aren't coming.

++Harry Etten tells us how Hillary Clinton can win without either Florida or Ohio. I missed the New Hampshire polls showing her in double digit leads.

538

++Today's odds at Fivethirtyeight are 88.1% Hillary, 364.7 electoral votes,and 49.1% popular vote.

CBS POLLS.

++Florida: Clinton 45%
                    Trump  40%

++New Hampshire: Clinton 45%
                                    Trump  36%

++Georgia: Trump 45%
                      Clinton 41%.

++"If it weren't for the media, I would be 20 points ahead of Hillary."

Saturday, August 13, 2016

"I'm Running Against The Media, Not Hillary Clinton."Donald J. Trump.

Michael Phelps Ends Career With 23 Gold Medals,the Most In Olympic History.

In Michael Phelps' Last Race, Men's Medley Set An Olympic Record.

TEAM USA WINS 1,000 Medal with Women's Medley (Swimming).

TRUMP CAMPAIGN AND RNC AGREED TODAY TO EXPAND FLORIDA OPERATION.

538 POLLS ONLY: CLINTON 87.5%.

How President Obama Moved The Overton Window To The Left.

++Nancy LeTourneau at WashingtonMonthly wrote yesterday a thoughtful piece on how President Obama through "his ruthless strategy of reconciliation" moved the political discussion in this country to the left. She quotes Richard Wolfe's analysis that the winner of this elect already is President Obama. Her extensive quotes from Wolfe are worth reading. 

++Andrew Sullivan in one of his last posts of the Democratic Convention mused that one of Obama's legacies may well be the destruction of the Republican Party.

++LeTourneau hints at this with her account of how Obama forced the Republicans in their position of refusing to compromise during his tenure boxing them into a position of policy nihilism, which produced Donald Trump. The Republican panic today is very real. They worry about losing even the House but the Washington Post reassures them that the DNC blundered in that regard by not anticipating how truly bad Trump is. 

++David Atkins at the Washington Monthly tells us how bad Trump's organization is and raises the question of where did all those millions go because they aren't in advertising or in organizational structure. His expenditures for July would have produced different results from what we see on the ground.

Andrew Prokop in VOX

++Andrew writes a long article explaining that Presidential candidates leading in the poll s at this point almost always win. This has been the case in the last 16 elections. He points out that the analysis of this began after the Dewey-Truman election. He wants you to recall that Al Gore actually won the popular vote in 2000. Also debates rarely change the situation if the candidate is leading at this point.

++Curiously enough Sam Wang had made the point that August 21 is the cinch date for those leading in the polls.

Friday, August 12, 2016

TRUMP AND CHEATING IN PENNSYLVANIA

++For the past 6 presidential elections,the Democrats have won Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton ,according to Quinnipiac, has a 52%-42% lead. Now Donald Trump claims in Altoona that if he doesn't win, she cheated. He encouraged his audience to watch every voter to make sure they don't vote four times.

++Now knowing something of real fraud in elections, the aggregates of all the polls should alert one to areas of fraud. Secondly before you make such allegations, which disparage every poll worker, the unpaid heroes of the day,you actually know what voting entails. A journalist should ask Trump whether he has ever voted at a polling place. His talks on the subject indicate he isn't familiar with voting.

++The next issue is that Trump is claiming if he loses the general election Hillary would have stolen it. From a regular Republican, I would interpret this as projection because of their history of voter fraud and voter suppression. But from Trump it is dangerous. 

++His discussion this week of second amendment people was addressed to the white supremacists and militia types who will engage in violence.  He doesn't take back these comments.

++His own campaign staff in areas like North Carolina have shown poor impulse control when around guns. One pointed a loaded gun at a fellow campaign worker's kneecap and threatened to blow it up. He resigned but only after the incident was made public.

++Karl Rove appeared ion Fox News and raved about Trump's inability to keep on message and re-litigating the primaries and stepping on his own message. Rove recommended Trump not respond to all the republicans who have abandoned him because he has 88 days left until the election. Rove said you can raise more money, you can find new supporters but you can create more time. Or as Khruschev used to say,"Cavier we have, Vodka will have, but time will do not."

++Reince Preibus showed up at the Trump rally --to Trump sit as one pundit. Reince urged the people not to believe anything the newspapers say about Trump. I don;'t know whether Reince was there to protect Toomey in a Senate race or to avoid another Trump disaster.

++Where I was in New York and Pennsylvania this week was amenable to Trump's message. The local newspapers actually were clever in just quoting Trump supporters about what he should not do. They said,"He should just shut up." They pointed out that a rally has a different dynamic than a television appearance but with Trump the "red meat" becomes the television perception and he looks awful. They also said that at first he was refreshing but then he kept saying things they only said at home. "Telling it like it is" became boorish behavior. 

++These are white "working class" voters who have several part-time jobs, which are seasonal because the industries have moved away. They were left behind decades ago and feel Trump speaks to them. The xenophobia and racism is a byproduct of their condition but not an essential characteristic. There is absolutely no point in discussing white privilege to them. In fact, some are involved in the local tourist industry and see "wealthier" weekenders show up and resent their dependence of them. They are accurately aware of the inequality of wealth issue because they have seen their standard of living lowered over a period of time. It is like the gig-economy for older white people. 

++The irony is that SUNY has several branches where i was and Pennsylvania teems with colleges and community colleges. So the younger local people don't believe a word of what Trump says but the older whites tend to think he explains what has happened in their lives.

++The issues they confront are real and not just a product of cultural grievances. So they are susceptible to a demagogue and one who claims elections are rigged. 

KATIE LADECKY WINS 5th Medal shatters Another World Record. Five Medals for the Olympics. 4 Gold.

NOW WHY ARE THE YANKEES ALLOWING A-ROD TO RETIRE NOW WITH 696 HOMERS--WHY NOT KEEP HIM TO THE END?

IT'S DOWN TO GROUND GAME AND THE DEBATES.

++Nancy LeTourneau writes today"A Tale Of Two Ground Games" comparing Hillary Clinton's in Ohio to Trump's sort of there. 
She sums it up by Trump's statement this week,"I don't know whether we need a get out the vote campaign." 

++Then down to Florida where Hillary Clinton has more staffers than Trump min all of America. She added one more program in a section of Florida which has seen an influx of Puerto Ricans fleeing the economic despair on the Island. She spoke about how she would deal with that island's financial woes. Then Dana Millbank writes today in the Washington Post that Trump has barely one operating office in the whole state.

++Trump's New Jersey headquarters closed this week. 

++When I was in "Trump" country in Pennsylvania,there was a huge professionally done highway sign paid for by local entrepreneurs. What I learned was that younger factory workers were voting for Hillary.

++Now some mention has been made about the Trump campaign buying the analytics fro0m the Obama campaign. The RNC said this was meant to get out the vote for Republicans who haven't voted for a while--much as Obama did in 2008 for Democrats who had missed a couple of elections. From the RNC comments they are using this for the day of the election. In 2008, Obama used it throughout the primary and the election so that there would be someone to take the voter to the poll. You have to have field staff to make the software work.

++Dana Millbank says that with 90 days left it is unclear whether the Trump campaign can or will do the necessary things to make anything work. Trailing in key battleground states, you need an ongoing operation and can't parachute in at the last minute to pull victory from defeat.

++Nate Silver writes today about what a Hillary Clinton landslide will look like. 

WAPO AARON BLAKE SAYS TODAY'S POLLS OF VIRGINIA AND COLORADO SHOW IT'S IMPOSSIBLE FOR TRUMP TO WIN.

BOTH CLINTON AND KAINE RELEASE THEIR TAXES.

PRINCETON'S META-MARGIN FOR CLINTON AT +5.0.

JOSH MARSHALL EXPLAINS: CLINTON LEADS BY 10+ IN STATES GIVING HER 273 EV--i.e. The Presidency.

CNN SAYS CLINTON LEADS EVERY BATTLEGROUND STATE EVEN IOWA BY 2PTS--SABATO SAYS 400EV POSSIBLE.

NBC/WSJ/MARIST POLLS.

++Colorado: Clinton 46%,Trump 32%.
++Florida:    Clinton 44%, Trump 39%.
++North Carolina: Clinton 48%,Trump 39%.
++Virginia:  Clinton 46%,Trump 33%.

NYT ARTICLE: TRUMP PAYS NO TAXES.

PPP: NEW HAMPSHIRE. CLINTON 50%, TRUMP 37%.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Michael Phelps Won His 22nd Olympic Gold Medal.

MISSED OHIO POLL SO HERE'S AGGREGATE.

++Clinton 46.1%.
++Trump 41.8%.

SUFFOLK POLL OF IOWA:

++TRUMP 37%
++CLINTON 36%
++JOHNSON 6%
++STEIN         3%.

FOX NEWS LATINO POLL.

++CLINTON 66%.
++TRUMP    20%

Add Johnson:
++CLINTON 59%, TRUMP 17%, JOHNSON 16%.

MIKE PENCE:"Condoms Are Too Modern."

PPP:North Carolina Senate

++Richard Burr (R.) 41%.
++Deborah Ross (D.) 37%.

PPP: SOUTH CAROLINA

++Trump 41%.
++Clinton 39%
++Johnson 5%
++Stein       2%.

Monday, August 8, 2016

GOVERNOR PENCE SAYS TRUMP BAN ON IMMIGRANTS FROM TERRORIST COUNTRIES INCLUDES CHRISTIANS AND JEWS TOO. OK.

DAN JONES POLL: UTAH

++ Trump 37%,Clinton 25%, Johnson 16%, Stein 1%,Other 21.

Normington Pitts Poll

++Tammy Duckworth 44%, Mark Kirk 37%.

++Hillary Clinton 51%, Trump 32%.

SENATOR SUSAN COLLINS (R.Maine) WILL NOT VOTE FOR TRUMP.

UPSHOT: 85% Clinton,15% Trump winning the Presidency.

IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET HAS IT 70% DEMOCRATS TAKE THE SENATE.

FOR THOSE WHO DREAD

++Even I sometimes fear the dark soul of America rising. But as Hillary Clinton said,"Americans need to have fun more." The polls after the Democratic Convention show more a trend than a bounce. And it's all in Clinton;s direction.

++Today we had 55 Republican national security experts say they refuse too vote for Trump. Several George W. Bush aides came out and endorsed Clinton. Former Michigan Governor Milliken endorsed Clinton. 

++Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly writes about the "unknown Trump voters"--those that are to embarrassed to say they would vote for him. The reference is that the race is closer in online polling than hardline calling. But closer is the operative word. Hillary Clinton leads by 4+ in online polling.

++We have the same claims with the millions of unknown evangelicals who would vote for Ted Cruz. They never materialized.

++Nancy LeTourneau also writes about how Florida is turning out. Hillary Clinton has more campaign workers in the state than Donald Trump has in the entire country. Nancy writes about the changing dynamics of the Hispanic community. Over 1 million Puerto Ricans have become permanent residents in Florida and there is a generational gap in the Cuban community, As a result of these changes Hillary Clinton has added stops in her campaign schedule to accommodate new areas in the Hispanic community.

++Nate Silver has the race at 86.3% clinton and Sam Wang has his meta-margin at +4.5 Clinton (which is almost impossible t overcome.)

++538 has Clinton at 361.1 EV, Trump at 176.5EV and Johnson at .3

++The popular vote is Clinton 49.7%,Trump at 42%,and Johnson at 6.9%.

++Given the nature of Trump's campaign, I am disappointed that the margin isn't more. But Clinton is now running slightly ahead of Obama in 2008.

++Trump is running--tops--with 16% of the non-white electorate--far below Romney.

++The states to watch in polling at Florida, Ohio and Iowa. The polls will tell us whether this is really over.

++The race is Hillary's to lose. We might expect Bill to pull a bonehead move,a terrorist attack which could poll either way,a recession (not likely) or the promised Wikileaks that the US is covertly arming ISIS.

CNN POLL OF POLLS

++Clinton 45%, Trump 35%,Johnson 9%,Stein 5%.

MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL

++Clinton 46%, Trump 34%,Johnson 7%, Stein 2%.

ABC 27 Poll: Susquehana (Pennsylvania)

++Clinton 47%, Trump 37%, 7% undecided.

WASHINGTON POST/ABC POLL

++Hillary Clinton 50%, Trump 42%.

GEORGIA POLL

++Clinton 44%, Trump 37%, Others 8%, Undecided 10%.

Sunday, August 7, 2016

TRUMP'S TWO WAYS TO VICTORY

++The person who is in the lead of the polls at this date has won 92% of the time. In two weeks,the odds get to 99%. The only two people who have ever won when behind by August 21 are George H,W, Bush and Harry Truman. 

++Donald Trump has two ways to get to an electoral college victory--actually one--and the other is a tie.

++He can win all the Romney states and flip Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and get to 273. This year the tipping states according to Upshot are Florida , Ohio and Pennsylvania in that order. 

++the other way to an electoral tie is winning Florida,Ohio, losing Pennsylvania and winning Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

++The polls out of Pennsylvania show Hillary Clinton is winning by 60 to 20 in the southern countries, even more than Obama and has a significant
 lead 55% in Alleghany County.

++We heard this week from Jon Ralston that Trump doesn't have an organization in Nevada whose population is increasing Hispanic. And New Hampshire shows Trump drastically behind. In Florida,Hillary has an 8 pt. lead.

ICHIRO SIZUKI HITS A TRIPLE FOR HIS 3,000 HIT IN THE AMERICAN MAJOR LEAGUES!

MORNING CONSULT

++Clinton 46%
     Trump   37%
     Don't Know  18%

++Clinton 41%
     Trump  33%
   Johnson  9%
     Stein      5%

UPSHOT (NYT) HILLARY CLINTON HAS 83% CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY.

++While this has been a great week for the Democrats,remember Hillary Clinton is looking forward to a 2008 Obama style win. Against Donald Trump? That says horrible things about our political system.

CBS BATTLEGROUND STATES

++Virginia: Hillary Clinton 49%, Trump 37%.

++Nevada: Hillary Clinton 43%, Trump 41%.

++Arizona: Donald Trump 44%, Clinton 42%

ABC/Washington Post: Hillary Clinton 50%, Donald Trump 42%.

Thursday, August 4, 2016

ABOUT THAT $400 MILLION TO IRAN

++Hillary Clinton literally had nothing to do with the $400 million transaction. Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

++Donald Trump did not see a video of a pallet of $400 million going to Iran. There is no video. But he has insisted seeing it three times.

++The $400 million had nothing, absolutely nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal. 

++The $400 million was not ransom for the captive American servicemen returned to the United States at the same time.

++The $400 million was the principal the US agreed to for a dispute with Iran since 1979. The Court at the Hague was supposed to render a judgment against the United States for not paying the disputed monies. The United States settled because they feared a judgment several times the settlement.

++These events happened after Hillary Clinton left the Obama administration. The negotiations had been going on decades before and the agreement was finally reached last year.

++President Obama told the American public in January what this payment was about. Iran had purchased $100s of millions of military equipment under the Shah but we never delivered because of the revolution. This issue was subject of the Iran-United States Arbitration Commission, which settled all private claims between the two countries. 

++We still are to pay about $1.5 billion in interest. 

++TRUMP calls for an investigation into this payment. Now Republicans in the Senate want to use it as an election year issue. I hope this doesn't end up like Benghazi, spending millions of taxpayer funds for a predictable outcome.

++But no Hillary really didn't have anything to do with it.

CRUEL: LARRY SABATO'S CRYSTAL BALL SAME AS MARCH: 347EV for DEMS; 191EV FOR REP.

Happy Birthday, Barack Obama. Approval Rate 53%; 40% Disapprove. 3rd HIGHEST IN HIS PRESIDENCY.

CLINTON CAMPAIGN CANCELS AD BUYS IN COLORADO,PAUSES THEM IN VIRGINIA.

NBC/WSJ POLL

++Hillary Clinton 47%, Donald Trump 38%.

Four-way:

++Hillary Clinton 43%, Donald Trump 34%,Gary Johnson 10%,and Jill Stein 5%.