Friday, November 16, 2012

RIP--Hostess 1925 to 2012

++For someone who was fed Wonder Bread all his life, this is a day of mourning. Hostess Bakeries, which are own by a private equity firm, is closing its doors because they claim they can not withstand a national wide strike by the Bakers Union . Of course, many of the plants were scheduled to be closed anyway as a cost-cutting measure. 

++A bitter moment. No more Hostess Twinkies, No more Hostess cupcakes. And what will life be like without baloney and mayo sandwiches on Wonder Bread? And what bread could stay months without getting stale? We mourn.

You Can't Keep The Wingnuts Down

++In the days immediately after President Obama's re-election,Republicans like David Frum argued that their party needed to get their act together and move on and develop policies and a language for dealing with the changing demographics of America.

++But never fear the anti-Obama fever has not broken. First, thousands of voters from the slave states signed petitions to secede from the union.
Secondly,robocalls went out immediately calling impeachment as the only option left.

++Now John "Walnuts" McCain has gone all Gran Terino on the Benghazi attack on our "consulate". McCain and Lindsey Graham call for a Watergate-style committee to investigate the incident and to find out what the President knew and when did he know it. Of course, the Republicans blocked the creation of the 9-11 Commission and refused to have then George W. Bush testify under oath.

++Dana Rohrebacker called Obama lying about Benghazi. And Petraeus testified in  a classified hearing that the terrorist aspect of the attack had been deleted from the talking points given to Susan Rice by inter-agency review.

++But none of this compares to the reactions to the elections by the religious right and their friends. Franklin Graham after muscling his dying father to endorse Mitt Romney said that America should be destroyed because it had not followed God's will. The New Apostolic Reformation laughed about Hurricane Sandy saying that the Northeast deserved it for approving same-sex marriage and voting for President Obama. The pastors on a video said that America had voted for evil and that President Obama who did not follow God's will was "evil" himself. Glenn Beck, the liaison with the evangelicals for Mitt Romney, said that America should be destroyed because it had abandoned God's Will. Is that the god from the star cluster Kolob?

++The best was the Georgia State Legislature actually having a closed hearing after the election about President Obama's secret "Delphi"Plan developed by the Rand Corporation to brainwash Americans into accepting control by the United Nations. The presentation was created by the John Birch Society. 

++A lesser conspiracy is that the UN Small Arms Treaty is supposed to be coming due soon and President Obama this time will confiscate your guns. I hope.

++And a perennial favorite is that Homeland Security has trained the first class of first-responders using the Americorps. These "impressionable" young people will be sending conservatives to FEMA concentration camps. They were going to in the last administration but didn't get around to it.

++Bishop Willard Romney has revealed his true self by his private talk to his donors about why he lost. President Obama gave "gifts" to Latinos,African-Americans, and young people. Young women voted for President Obama because they could get free contraceptives. Young people didn't have to pay high interest rates on college loans. African Americans got free healthcare worth $10,000 per family in perpetuity. Latinos benefited by free healthcare and legalization of the Dream Act kids. And as Grover Norquist opined, "Romney lost because Obama called him a poopyhead." Maybe he is one. Clueless and graceless in Gaza.

++Kevin Drum, writing in Mother Jones, tries to explain the latest Benghazi craze among Republicans by explaining they have "scandal envy". Since Solandra, Fast and Furious didn't pan out, the GOP wants to get even and tag President Obama with a scandal mirroring Reagan's Iran Contra,the Marine barracks, George W's 9-11, Weapons of Mass Destruction and the outing of Valerie Plame.

++Paul Ryan blamed his and Romney's defeat on the "urban centers",claiming rural white America supports  Republicans, which depending on the region is true.

++Any course correction for the Republicans will take a lot of time. The wing nuts are still dominant. Expect more, not less craziness in the years ahead.

Yes,President Obama Won A Mandate

++For election night and about a week afterwards, I enjoyed e-mail silence from all those who insisted Willard Romney would win a landslide, the African American community wouldn't turnout,young people won't vote and women would not create a gender gap.

++The fact of the matter is that President Obama joins one other President who earned more than 61 million votes--himself. No other President has garnered such popular votes. His 2008 election was the record. No Democrats has carried Florida twice since FDR. 

++So while we are hearing one excuse after another from Republicans for their loss,including Karl Rove's improbable excuse that CrossRoads USA made it closer, there are some basic fundamental facts about elections since the mid-1900s and mid-2oth century that remain true. 

++So let me make this simple:
1.No incumbent with an approval rating of 52% has ever lost.
2. No Republican starting with Abraham Lincoln has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. James K. Polk did as a Democrat.
3. No Republican has ever won the White House while losing his political home state. Mitt Romney lost Massachusetts by a larger percentage than George McGovern lost South Dakota during the 1972 landslide to Richard Nixon. Romney also lost New Hampshire, Michigan,and California, where he has residences. The only "home" state he won was Utah.
4. And in the 21st Century, no candidate has ever won who refused to go on the Dave Letterman show after winning his party's nomination. It is true the road to the White House is through Dave Letterman.

There, that's simple.

++Mitt Romney won all states where it is legal to have sex with a horse. 

++Paul Ryan not only lost his home state of Wisconsin but also his hometown,Janesville. That's pretty low.

++For those of us who have spent a lifetime getting people in other countries to vote, the restrictions on voting in the United States and attempts by various states to thwart minority participation is a disgrace. Before the next national election, the United States must make efforts to reform its electoral system. Waiting in line for eight hours to vote is a disgrace. Florida made us look like a Banana Republic. 

++My hat is off to the people of Puerto Rico who voted to become a state. President Obama promised he would support their decision. Now let's see whether Congress obliges. Don't hold your breath.

++What prevented a total Democratic blow-out was the gerrymandering of 2010. Democrats won over 50% of the popular vote in House races but came up short. That is why Paul Ryan's statement that the House Republicans have a mandate is laughable. 

++Some of my favorites won--Elizabeth Warren being one of them. But let's applaud Heidi Heitkampf from North Dakota. Heidi ran when Democrats declined because this seat was supposed to be an automatic pick-up. She defeated Rick Berg by running a campaign that took Tip O'Neil's belief of "All politics is local" to a state level. The margin of her victory was provided by the native American vote in North Dakota, which was mobilized by the Democrats and ignored by the Republicans.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

The Winner and Still Champion

President Barack Hussein Obama wins Re-Election. Bravo!

Monday, November 5, 2012

Last Polls

++CBS/NYTimes Obama 51 to Romney 49.

++Pulse Opinion, a Rasmussen subsidiary, has Obama 275 EV and Romney 263 EV. This should tell you something when a GOP pollster shows you their cards.


++Nate Silver adjusted his predictions moments after my last post. Now Obama's chances of re-election are 91.4% to Willard's 8.6%. Obama now at 314.4 EV and Romney at 223.6%. Popular vote: 50.9% to 48.2%.

++Rupert Murdoch tweeted moments ago that everyone is scrambling around for data on the election which might benefit Willard but he admits it looks too late.

++Willard told Fox News he would win Pennsylvania. The head of the Pennsylvania GOP told Howard Fineman that Willard made some in-roads but he is trailing by at least four points and won't make it up.

Election Eve

++Over 2900 separate polls have been conducted,$6 billion spent and countless television hours reviewing the possible scenarios for the results. So after all is well and done, we will probably end up tomorrow with the same system we have today. Democrats will probably pick up a seat in the Senate, the President will be re-elected and the Democrats will pick up some House seats but the Republicans retain control of the House.

++The actual toss-up states come down to North Carolina and Florida. The remarkable story about North Carolina is that by Saturday 49.7% of all African-Americans had voted and 61% of them were women. White early voter turnout was 38.7%. Even if Romney wins this state, this is a story that should be told. Florida has turned into a Banana Republic with voters waiting up to eight hours to vote, if they can. 

++I am blind from the over 100 polls released since Friday. But let's just summarize people's predictions.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says Obama wins with 290 electoral votes. The Senate will be 53 to 47 and Democrats will pick up 3 House seats. 

Kos of the Daily Kos predicts Obama with 332 EV to Romney 206.

The University of Illinois predicts Obama with 303.6EV to Romney 234.4. Obama's probability of re-election is 99.8%. 

At 8: 30pm EST, Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium has Obama at 309 EV and Romney at 229. With a prediction probability of 99.8%.

Nate Silver at the 538 blog has Obama at 307.2 and Romney at 230.8 with Obama at 86.3% chance of winning with 50.6% of the vote to 48.5%.

PPP Final Electoral College: Obama 303 EV to Romney 191. 44 Toss-ups. Florida and North Carolina.

Intrade: Obama 303 EV.

++Latino Decisions final poll has Obama winning72.9% of the vote and Romney at 27.1%.

++Final ABC/Washington Post poll: Obama 50 to Romney 47.

++Rand Tracking: Obama 50 to Romney 45.5.

++YouGov. National: Obama 49 to Romney 47.

++Final DailyKos/SEIU poll: Obama 50 to Romney 48.

++Final Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 48 to Romney 46.

++Gallup: Romney 49 to Obama 48.

++PPP: Obama 50 to Romney 48.

++Onsight Public Affairs: Obama 50 to Romney 46.

++Last Gallup approval rating before election day: 52%.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Allan Lichtman Says Stop Worrying

++Interviewed with three days left on Australian television,Allan Lichtman says forget about the polls, Obama wins. Having correctly predicted each winner since 1984, he discounted the economy as the major factor but re-iterated his 12 keys to the White House. Since President Obama has both international and domestic achievements and no major scandal,he will win. This was said after the moderator had recalled the recent close polls in the United States.

++University of Illinois projects 302.6 EV for President Obama and 235.4 for Romney. UIlli says that Obama has 281 safe electoral votes and that the probability of his winning re-election is now .996% and his chance of getting to 300EV is 58%. There is 0% chance of a tie.

++ Stanford University projects that President Obama has a 87.34% chance of re-election with the electoral votes ranging from 300 to 346.

Let's Leave it to Sam

++Too many last minute polls today and the campaigns are in their final frenzy. Approval ratings for President Obama are at Rasmussen 51% levels. In Ohio, Pulse Opinions he hit 52%. The day started with RCP at 49.9%. These are all in the re-election sweet zones.

++Joe Biden told Chris Matthews today that the electoral vote wasn't going to be close. 

++David Axelrod took on Chris Wallace at Fox News to say Romney can't catch up.

++So Sam Wang appeared on CNN International. This is Sam's prediction.Now President Obama,based on all the state polls,has a 99.9% chance of winning re-election. The EV Count is 303 Obama and Romney 235. The meta-margin is now 2.85.

++Nate Silver has Obama at 306 and 231.6 for Romney with Obama having an 85.5% chance of re-election. And 50.5% in the popular vote.

++Note" Sam Wang has cut Obama down from 319 earlier in the day but upped his meta-margin.

++All the national polls have come out today. Gallup is promised tomorrow. Most interesting is Pew's which shows President Obama at 50 and Romney at 47.

Saturday, November 3, 2012


++About two days exactly until Election day. Tomorrow, Catholic priests are supposed to read an anti-Obama letter from the pulpit by the National Conference of Catholic Bishops. Rev.Mike Huckabee cut an ad that says Christians would be turning against their faith and risking hellfire if they voted for President Obama, who just happens to be the only Christian running. The Electionopalypse is now in high gear. 

++The Des Moines Register conducted its last Seltzer poll. President Obama 47 to Romney 42. 

++PPP on Pennsylvania : Obama 52 to Romney 46. 

++PPP on Wisconsin: Obama 51 to Romney 48.

After the earlier polls tonight on Ohio, the toss-ups come down to Colorado, Virginia,North Carolina and New Hampshire, and Florida.

++The Obama campaign sent out a memo saying they had opened 5,000 Get Out The Vote staging areas in Swing States. They also have registered 1,792,291 new voters across battleground states,which is twice the number they did in 2008.

++If you wonder why some polls had Romney ahead on early voting, it is because the Northeast, which will vote for President Obama, does not have early voting and that many so-called "red states" do.However,in contested states like Nevada,Ohio,Iowa,and North Carolina it has been no contest.

++President Obama, Vice-President Biden, former President Clinton and Michelle Obama will be commuting to all the remaining "toss-up" states until election day. It has been announced Romney will travel to seven states in the next 48 hours. 

++I noticed President Obama is now accelerating his letters to raise money for House candidates. The Obama-Biden campaign seems to be giddy and the Romney campaign morose tonight. Conservatives are already blaming Chris Christie's effusive praise of President Obama as one of the reasons Romney will lose.


++NYT/Quinnipiac--Ohio--Obama 50 to Romney 45.

++NBC/WSJ/ Marist--Ohio--Obama 51 to Romney 45.

++John Weaver, former McCain strategist and Jon Huntsman's campaign manager,one-ups Sam Wang. He tweeted tonight Obama 332EV and Romney 206EV. He said they would have to push the other states but it will happen.

++The Romney campaign was reported down tonight with Ann Romney getting emotional. The campaign asked what they were going to do,"Pray" was the answer. They claimed that their internal polls indicated they were in good shape in Virginia,North Carolina, Florida and Iowa. Notice the absence of Ohio.

++Read Charlie Cook today. He is beginning to write the obituary for the Romney campaign. He lists the states where it is now out of reach for Romney and draws the conclusion he would have to run the string on all outstanding "swing states".

++John Ralston reports from Las Vegas that early voting in Nevada has put Obama in such a lead that Romney needs a miracle. 

When The Random Drift Converges with the Bayesian Prediction

++Or Sam Wang farts in your general direction. Sam is still at 323-215, which basically means that the GOP could still steal Ohio and Florida and Obama still wins. The Random Drift, as promised by Dr. Wang, is now converging like an Eclipse of the moon or sun on the Bayesian Prediction. Drift is now 98.0% to the Prediction of 99.8%.

++The PPP National Tracking Poll is at Obama 50 and Romney 47. 

++The Ohio Secretary of State again has thrown a wrench in the works by ordering provisional ballots to be held up. Court convenes again on Monday as voter rights activists continue to take this man to court. Good news is that Obama has 2,500 lawyers ready to pounce on Ohio if this stuff turns serious.

++And just for our West Coast readers who feel left out ,the Field poll has Diane Feinstein with a 21 point lead in her race for Senate and President Obama with a 15-point lead over Willard.

Numbers Dump

++Iowa--Gravis--Obama 49 to Romney 45.
++Iowa--Grove--Obama 47 to Romney 44.

++Michigan--Rasmussen--Obama 52 to Romney 47.
++Michigan--PPP--Obama 52 to Romney 46.
++Michigan--Grove--Obama 48 to Romney 41.

++Minnesota--PPP--Obama 53 to Romney 44.

++Maine--PPP--Obama 55 to Romney 42.
++Maine--2nd District--PPP--Obama 51 to Romney 46.

++Oregon--PPP--Obama 52 to Romney 46.

++Ohio--NBC/WSJ--Obama 51 to Romney 46.
++Ohio--Reuters/Ipsos--Obama 47 to Romney 45.
++Ohio--CNN--Obama 50 to Romney 47.
++Ohio--We Ask America--Obama 50 to Romney 46.
++Ohio--Grove--Obama 49 to Romney 45.

++Wisconsin--Grove--Obama 48 to Romney 42.
++Wisconsin--We Ask America--Obama 52 to Romney 45.

++Colorado--Denver Post--Obama 47 to Romney 45.
++Colorado--Reuters/Ipsos--Obama 46 to Romney 46.
++Colorado--PPP--Obama 50 to Romney 46.
++Colorado--CNN--Obama 50 to Romney 47.

++Connecticut--PPP--Obama 55 to Romney 42.

++New Hampshire--Gravis--Obama 50 to Romney 49.
++New Hampshire--New England U--Obama 49.5 to Romney 44.4.

++Nevada--Mellman--Obama 50 to Romney 44.

++Virginia--Reuters/Ipsos--Obama 48 to Romney 45.
++Virginia--We Ask America--Obama 49 to Romney 48.

++Florida--Reuters/Ipsos--Obama 48 to Romney 46.
++Florida--NBC/WSJ--Obama 49 to Romney 47.
++Florida--Quinnipiac/NYT--Obama 48 to Romney 47.

Sam Wang Vows To Eat Bug

++Sam Wang has allowed Hurricane Sandy to get to him over at Princeton. Seeing that Romney is buying ads in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he vows to eat a bug on camera if Romney wins these states. He will even eat a really big bug if Romney wins Ohio.

++This morning's numbers are Obama at 323 EV and Romney at 215.

++The Meta-margin is +2.98. Last night it topped 3.
The drift is 98.0% and Prediction 99.8%.

++Could Romney win the popular vote? Sam puts it at 6% probability. Not likely.

++Yesterday, 19 swing state polls were released and Romney only led in one.

Friday, November 2, 2012

Night Time with Sam

++Don't blame it on Nate Silver. Sam Wang at the Princeton Consortium has the race--Obama 319 EV and Romney 219. Obama's meta-margin is +2.90. The Random Drift is 97% and the Bayesian Prediction is 99.6%.

++Nate Silver is playing it safe. Obama at 303.7 to Romney 234.3 EVs. 81.4% probability of an Obama win. 50.5% popular vote.

++Last time I looked Obama was ahead in sixteen straight polls of swing states and Romney tied only one.

++I'll catch up tomorrow with the last polling. PPP ,We ask America and Reuters/Ipsos say they are wrapping up their state polls.

Jobs Report

++171, 000 jobs added but unemployment ticks up to 7.9%. Good numbers. Probably should be a wash politically.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Wang and Silver

++Gallup has Obama with a favorability of 62 to Romney 55--which usually determines the election.

++Mayor Bloomberg has endorsed Obama.

++Mayor Koch has endorsed Obama with a special emphasis on his support for Israel. This should soon be a television ad in Florida.

++Electoral Vote at this hour has Obama at 299 to Romney at 206. They have 33 tied--29 for Florida and 4 for New Hampshire.

++Sam Wang went at it about Karl Rove's prediction of a Romney win by explaining the margin of error in national polls versus state polls. Wang has Obama now at 315 and Romney at 223. The meta-margin is now at +2.65. The Random Drift is 96% and the Prediction is at 99%.

++Nate Silver has Obama now at 303.2 with Romney at 234.8, an 80.8% chance of winning compared to 19.2% for Romney .50.5% in popular vote and 48.4 for Romney.

++Gallup has their unemployment numbers out today. They are at 7% unemployed. Tomorrow's job numbers are extremely important for Obama so as to avoid any slip-up before election day.


++Nate The Great Silver is feeling his oats. He's now betting Morning Joe on his picks. Today, Nate has Obama at 300.4 to Romney 237.6, a 79% probability of an Obama win and 50.5% popular vote.

++Sam Wang does him one better. Wang predicts Obama 312 to Romney 226. His meta-margin at noon was 2.64, His Drift was 96% and his probability at 99.1%. Remember he said that the two would converge at the end.

++Rand Tracking is at 50.5% versus 45.

++Rasmussen dutifully reported his finding that Romney leads by a point in Ohio and in Wisconsin. It is as if he needs to follow pro-Obama polls to affect the averages.