Howard Dean as reported in the Hill warned Democrats not to take Sarah Palin lightly because she could beat Obama. This wasn't psy-ops by the creator of the 50-state strategy to sucker Palin into the race. Instead, Howard Dean pointed out that if unemployment remains as high as it is, any person who battles to their party's nomination can win the presidency. His point is that the campaign is the qualification to be President and that voters might decide to change. Howard Dean believes that the Beltway pundits have under-estimated the impact of high unemployment on the election.
The New York Times warns that no modern President with the exception of FDR has ever been re-elected if the unemployment rate is above 7.3%. FDR did it twice. But what the Times neglected to mention that under Reagan it was 7.2% and he won with a landslide. Nate the Great does a detailed analysis of how unemployment affects re-elections at www.FiveThirtyEight.com .
Of course, other people who lost like Ford and Carter had other problems. Ford lost because he pardoned Richard Nixon and at Dick Cheney's urging dumped Nelson Rockefeller. Otherwise he would have won New York and the election. Carter had the additional problem of runaway inflation coupled with his unemployment problem, which remained the same throughout his four years.
Just for reference, Obama came in with 7.5% unemployment. He does have to make some headway before the election. Whether he can get it down enough, remains a question. As of two months ago, the government was banking on 7.2% by election time but the recovery has stalled.
The AP piles on by pointing out that where the housing bust continues in swing states Obama will have a tough time getting re-elected.
A writer on Democratic Underground claims that Mitt Romney will look qualified enough and can seem with his personality moderate enough to attract independents to make it a close race.
What no one is factoring in is the enormous unpopularity of Republican Governors in Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida as generating a large Democratic turnout.
The Obama campaign is conceding Indiana already. I have no idea why. But they are doubling down in North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada,New Mexico and Colorado. One of the reasons is that the census shows that the Hispanic population is growing much faster than previously believed.
The Daily Beast piled on this week by chastising Obama for failing to enact immigration reform. Tim Pawlenty used this to attack Obama. And now the New York Times editorialized that the Obama Administration has failed in this regard. Constructively they did point out some ways Obama can ameliorate the situation by executive action.
Huffington Post has been on a campaign against Obama because he didn't accept Ariana's suggestions about mortgage modifications and other economic prescriptions.
NPR ran today an interview with an analyst for a top investment firm, who said that he didn't see unemployment coming down to 8% for a long time and that it may never be true we ever get to 5% again. He basically said there needed to be a second stimulus package but politically that was not doable. He didn't believe anything would be done for the economy until after the 2012 election.
I smell the summer doldrums coming on. Remember the Republican mantra that Obama is Jimmy Carter. This has been the working assumption for the GOP from days before Obama took the oath of office. And their actions are devoted to making that prophecy come true.
What surprises me is that Obama remains bouyant and has not become bunker bound. If anything, he seems to put the malaise tag on the Republicans for having a small and mean vision of America. The Party of No and We're Broke.
Haley Barbour warned conservatives today at the Ralph Reed Faithfest that they will have to bite the bullet with the GOP nominee and understand they will have several policy differences with them.
It seems like Howard Dean and Haley are preparing their sides that this will be a close and tough race and who ever is unified wins.
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