++It looks like Obama is going to need Rivera. The August Jobs Report literally showed 0 jobs created. The gains in the private sector were perfectly offset by the losses in the public sector. This is the first time this has happened since 1945.
++While American politics might change next year, the economy will not. The Obama Administration predicts at least 8.2% unemployment by the time elections come around. The government anticipates that it will not be until 2016 that unemployment in the United States drops to 6%. Basically we will have experienced a lost decade.
++Out of our sights and minds is the real debt issue in Europe. Italy's austerity plan has gone belly-up and Sylvio Berlesconi believes that his country is a "pretty shitty place". The Greek debt deal is slowly coming undone. Paul Krugman reports that Iceland is almost out of trouble. Spain must still vote on its debt program. Angela Merkel and the Germans are saying "Nein" to Germany bailing out southern Europe and both Germany and France have nixed the idea of Eurobonds. If any country moves out of the Euro zone, we face the potential end of the Euro. That means the effective end of the political project of a unified Europe. And, as one French commentator said on NPR, the prospects of a post-Western world. Europe's current political clout comes from having the combined GNP slightly more than the United States. Without a Euro zone, Europe recedes from global influence.
++Germany is going through a strange isolationist period right now and is no mood to bolster the European project. Polls in the country show a majority want to become a Super Switzerland, surviving on their export trade, their high caliber machinery and upscale exports. The feeling is that for years Germany was considered the poor man in Europe because they had to adopt strict austerity measures to integrate the former GDR into the country. The popular feeling is that if we can do that, then why can't you Greeks, Italians and Spaniards do the same.
++Any serious disruptions in the European banks will negatively affect the United States because our own private banks hold much of the European debt. This is a certain recipe for a double dip recession. As it is, while a technical recession is not here and probably will not come,Americans will feel we are in recession for years to come. This perception will have a dramatic impact on how we view our own country's place in the world.
++While President Obama appears to be in a box right now on the economy, Republicans may capitalize on the poor economic situation as they are doing, but as we come closer to 2012 they have to provide some "meat" to their platform. From what I have heard so far,the talking points from the Republicans sound like a platform for the final looting of the country. Five of the candidates are for eliminating the capital gains tax, which the CBO says would be a $1 trillion give away to the wealthiest 1% over a 10 year period. They also want to significantly lower the corporate tax rates, which might generate more tax revenues depending on how it's written. And the leading candidates are proposing increasing taxes on the middle class, while maintaining the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. And on the three Trade agreements President Obama has submitted to Congress Republicans are refusing to agree to Obama's offsets for industries where Americans would lose jobs in the transaction.
++President Obama has some but not many tools to goose the economy. Congress will not overtly pass another stimulus package, even though the last one worked but was too small. A report out today concludes what many of thought, small businesses are not concerned about taxes because the Obama Administration has given them plenty of tax incentives and they are not worried about regulations. Strangely, the poll of small businesses actually showed they favored regulations because they evened the playing field with competitors. So the whines from House Republicans over excessive regulations only applies to the larger corporate interests.
++President Obama has some $35 billion at his disposal for infrastructure projects. The Administration has sent mandates out to various government agencies to either speed up or alloocate funds to job-creating projects. This also applies to the Department of Education and its support for local school systems. The President has also announced at the VFW meeting a major initiative for retraining and employing 1,000,000 veterans. He is also discussing a massive plan for refinancing mortgages of homes underwater and those facing foreclosure. Almost all trhis he can do without any congressional imput. The Federal Reserve can do some things but Chairman Bernanke usually wants congressional approval for anything major.
++I would expect President Obama to use Hurricane Irene and the midwest tornedoes as an occasion to emphasize the need for some large infrastructure project,probably the creation of an Infrastructure Bank, as well as massive refunding of FEMA. On infrastructure, on the day George W. Bush took office, the United States was 5th in the world; today it is 23rd in the world in terms of our infrastructure. But Obama faces the resistance of the Republicans to even renew funding for the Highway Fund, which passed the last time in the Senate by 95 to 5. It's doubtful in my mind whether this could even come to a vote in the Senate today because of threats to filibuster.
++It's pretty clear that growth in the US economy came to a screeching halt once the agenda became discussions about debt. From the early Spring on, job growth just petered out. Likewise, deep pessimism has infected the marketplace and the public mind because of the debt ceiling debate. Polls indicate that no one benefited from the debt ceiling debate and that over-all confidence in the political system dramatically declined.
++There are still a few random factors. American corporations are still sitting on massive amounts of capital. APPLE has more money than all the Eurobanks combined. This situation has been true for the past two years. The productivity of the American worker has declined somewhat, which is usually an indicator that business must start hiring. The American auto indujstry is experiencing phenomenal growth and is now beginning to be a player in the export market. Contrary to the propaganda, there is more oil and gas drilling in the United States now than at any time in history. AT&T is trying to get the DOJ to drop its anti-trust suit for trying to buy T-Mobile on the promise they will bring all their call centers home from India and will expand cell and internet coverage through rural America. Technically, consumer confidence is low but internal demand among corporations to expand and hire is growing. How this plays out over the next few months will be interesting to see.
++But things are so bad that the L.A. Dodgers can't afford the lawyers to go bankrupt.
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