What to Expect in the Year of the Dragon

++Chris Hayes rejoices in the "mini-golden age of radical criticism and polemics". I happen to agree with him. The revival of what in former days would be leftist criticism and political thought has been invigorating.

++The opposite is very depressing--the total collapse of a very wealthy but morally and intellectually bankrupt Right. 

++The difference is that the Right can retain its fading power to blackmail and to obstruct. The Left may be revived intellectually but it has not managed to find a way to influence policy.

++The main winners of this year are gays, who have won marriage rights in more states, the Latinos, who broke their past lethargy and voted in huge numbers, and the African Americans, who voted at a higher rate than whites for the first time in history. Women fought back but the war on women escalated after the election with Michigan passing more restrictions on abortion clinics. 

++For one group of winners--the Latinos--this coming year could see all not-so comprehensive but better law on immigration reform. The reason is that Republicans are desperate to win favor with Latinos.

++While the President has come forward for sensible gun control, the NRA and their corporate masters will thwart all moves in this direction. The Newtown event just pushed the Right closer to fascism with calls of arming teachers and schools.

++When I started this blog, I said that President Obama might be our last democratically elected President. I stand by that. We escaped the bullet twice now but already measures are being taken to prevent 2012 every occurring again through new voter suppression measures only days after the votes were counted.

++We may see 2013 usher in a Republican caused recession again because of their fooling around with the Fiscal Cliff and the debt ceiling. This is a sign that Republicans have not become radicals but nihilists. Since the GOP campaigned on American exceptionalism,with their loss they are into hyper-declinism of the United States and seem committed to  a self-fulfilling prophecy.

++What can we see abroad?
I think Hugo Chavez will pass from the scene.
I think you will see Assad in Syria vacate to Russia.
I think you will see Fidel pass by the end of Obama's second term.
I think you will see President Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea step aside for his son Theodorin.
I think you will see a rash of terrorism through the Gulf states.
I think Mookie al-Sadar will make a move in Iraq when Iran has lost influence in Syria. 
I think the Arab Spring will start morphing into more repressive regimes and other more liberal regimes. The transition from dictatorship to more open societies will experience more setbacks.
I think you will see more American military actions in Mali and the larger areas around.
I think you will see efforts of unrest in Algeria since they are to have presidential elections this year.

++War with Iran?
Today,I don't think there will be war either by Israel or the United States. But remember you and I will have absolutely no say in the matter.
Iran will have a desultory election this coming month, which will be slightly better than other Middle Eastern states recently. It will not affect the real powers in the country--the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard. But it will buy them time. The economic sanctions are crippling the economy and you may actually have some type of a negotiated deal. A negotiated deal with Tehran will provoke a backlash by Republicans in the United States.

++President Obama has only two years for any effective action on the domestic front before the by-elections. And remember this is the time that openings on the Supreme Court should occur. If the Democrats can reform the filibuster rules in the Senate, we are likely to see a rush of Obama appointees finally make it to the court. 

++The time of the inauguration should let Obama define for himself what the next issues of the second term will be. It should give him a temporary lift and evaporate the rancor and toxic atmosphere that has enveloped the country after the election.

++Same Sex marriage at SCOTUS. Here I am for a half full set of decisions. I have to expect after two Reagan appointed judges ruled DOMA unconstitutional that the right-wing court would have to lean that way. On Prop 8, the California decision, I expect a more ambiguous decision. The questions the Court has asked is who has stature to arguing the case in California? The state refused to defend the law and only NOM argued it. I expect the Court might just toss it back or at least make a very specific ruling that  only pertains to California.

++As I have written, the FIRE economy is dead and is unlikely to revive much. The problem that now exists is a total lack of trust in Wall Street, the banks, our political system and our institutions as a whole. This is a very dangerous situation. If the economy can not break out because of political gridlock, we may face another decade of slow growth and not make the policy decisions to move to a new economy.

++This coming year I will start posting more reviews of the books I have read. January is a book bonanza month including a new Ian Rankin. For my piece of mine, I am reading all of D.T.Suzuki on Zen Buddhism.

++As we head into the Year of the Dragon,let's take note that the current Congress is the less productive in American history--no mean feat. It is several times worse than Harry Truman's "Do Nothing Congress."