++Andrew writes a long article explaining that Presidential candidates leading in the poll s at this point almost always win. This has been the case in the last 16 elections. He points out that the analysis of this began after the Dewey-Truman election. He wants you to recall that Al Gore actually won the popular vote in 2000. Also debates rarely change the situation if the candidate is leading at this point.
++Curiously enough Sam Wang had made the point that August 21 is the cinch date for those leading in the polls.
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