Wednesday, August 17, 2016

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: DOES TRUMP HAVE A CHANCE?

++The election team at 538 have a fine discussion where Nate Silver plays grump cat to all of Harry Etten's fantasy scenarios of a Trump comeback. Nate seems obsessed by the ate of the economy as affecting Hillary's Poll-Plus odds. But Nate says sure Trump could shave off 3-4 its by some scandal or a debate performance but that doesn't buy him much. It is the closest you'll come to hearing him say Clinton has it in the bag. He even deals with the promised Wikileaks attack on Hillary and email problems. Even a terrorist attack doesn't necessarily rebound to Trump's benefit. 

++This morning's news that Trump hired Steve Bannon, former banker and Breibart CEO, and Kelly anne Conway ,a former aide to New Gringrich and veteran pollster, makes matters worse. With the news Roger Aisles is advising Trump, Nate says these people believe the 34% of the country who believe what they do are the entire country. 

++Trump has decided to lose as he is and basically has thrown the Republican party overboard.

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